We’ve reached the very cream of the crop here with only the Brisbane Broncos and North Queensland Cowboys remaining in The Roar‘s 2015 NRL preview series.
Today we look at the Broncos who came so close in 2015 but look well positioned to go one further in 2016.
2015 in review: Seconds away
After several lacklustre years under Ivan Henjak and Anthony Griffin, supercoach Wayne Bennett returned to the Broncos in 2015 and immediately revived the sleeping giant. After an unexpected shellacking at home in the first week the team quickly got to work and only lost back-to-back games once all season.
After cruising through the regular season they edged the Cowboys in a ridiculously entertaining first week of the finals before comfortably ending the Roosters’ season in week three. Then in the grand final…
Well, you all know what happened but out of respect for Ben Hunt we’ll leave that thought unfinished.
Off-season story: Centre-go-round
We’ve previously discussed it in the context of the Bulldogs, Roosters and Dragons previews but the move that kicked off the great centre-go-round of 2015 was James Roberts extricating himself from the Titans and finding his way to the Broncos.
As the reigning Dally M centre of the year, Roberts was arguably the most important centre to switch teams in the off-season which makes the Broncos the big winners. Especially given they just happened to have a Justin Hodges-sized vacancy in Roberts’ preferred right centre spot.
Roster management
2016 Gains: Herman Ese’ese, James Roberts, Tevita Pangai Jr.
2016 Losses: Dale Copley, Mitchell Dodds, Mitch Garbutt, James Gavet, Justin Hodges, Todd Lowrie, Jayden Nikorima, Matt Parcell, David Stagg, Ashley Taylor, Daniel Vidot.
While there are a lot of names on the losses list that doesn’t necessarily reflect a significant dent in the team for 2016. Most of the players listed were either backups, prospects or have been quickly replaced in the line-up by a coming man.
Perhaps the only gap is that the loss of both Dale Copley and Justin Hodges is only being filled by the arrival of James Roberts. However, it’s worth noting that at full strength the team will still be leaving one of Lachlan Maranta, Jordan Kahu or Corey Oates on the sideline (or more likely progressing Corey Oates into the forward pack where he will no doubt find a permanent home in the future).
Again while the team has lost depth forwards like Mitch Garbutt, James Gavet, Todd Lowrie and David Stagg the reality is that those players recorded only six appearances between them in 2015 with Todd Lowrie not playing any first grade at all.
Mitchell Dodds was a more regular member of the rotation but with Josh McGuire returning from injury and the team’s unending pipeline of rugged and rangy forwards (keep an eye out for Jai Arrow and recent acquisition Tevita Pangai who may get first-grade call-ups this season) it is unlikely that the loss of Dodds and those other forwards will derail the team.
Likely line-up
1. Darius Boyd
2. Corey Oates
3. James Roberts
4. Jordan Kahu
5. Greg Eden
6. Anthony Milford
7. Ben Hunt
8. Josh McGuire
9. Andrew McCullough
10. Sam Thaiday
11. Alex Glenn
12. Matthew Gillett
13. Corey Parker
14. Kodi Nikorima
15. Adam Blair
16. Joe Ofahengaue
17. Jarrod Wallace.
Unsurprisingly for a team that went within a few seconds of a premiership there are few changes to the line-up for this season.
The main change is, of course, Roberts replacing the retiring Hodges. While Hodges’ defensive game had slipped considerably in the latter years of his career he remained a potent attacking force and was still clowning defenders by getting into, and out of, dummy half inside his own end with regularity.
Roberts, however, will be an upgrade overall, bringing more speed, elusiveness and raw tackle-breaking power to that edge, with almost twice as many broken tackles as Hodges in 2015. Roberts also had a useful habit of scoring tries, with his 16 being not only the most in the competition among centres but significantly more than Hodges who recorded only three. However, Hodges remained effective as creator for others with eight try assists.
Hodges’ overall contribution to the team will no doubt be missed as he was clearly a vital leader and mentor for the team’s young backline. However, if you’re going to lose a giant of the game like Hodges it’s nice to be able to replace him with the guy who won best centre the year.
Beyond the Hodges-Roberts switch there are few changes to report for the Broncos with the return of McGuire the only other major deviation.
The team remains deliberately light in the forwards without a single traditional big man but with an endless stream of 188-centimetre, 102-kilogram utility forwards all capable on the edges or in the middle unit. Supercoach Bennett has long eschewed the wrestle game, preferring to rely on speed and mobility and that is reflected in his squad.
It helps to have two outstanding halves in the form of Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford. While Hunt and Milford do conform to a modern split halves alignment, with Milford on the left and Hunt on the right, in some ways they operate more like a traditional six and seven with Hunt doing almost all the kicking and Milford playing mostly as a runner.
It was a partnership that flourished in 2015 and should continue to improve over 2016 as Milford settles in the halves more fully.
Player to watch: Anthony Milford
In his final year at the Canberra Raiders in 2014 Milford recorded 12 tries, 12 try assists, 16 linebreaks and 13 linebreaks. He also had 108 tackle breaks and made a tick less than 100 metres per game. And he accrued the vast majority of those statistics playing fullback.
So when Milford arrived at the Broncos and Bennett immediately indicated that Milford would play in the halves many people, myself included, were sceptical. The consensus was that Milford was best suited to a free-ranging role and that placing the shackles of playing in the halves on him would constrain a unique football talent.
The sceptics had plenty to crow about early in the season. Eight games into 2015 Milford had yet to record either a try assist or a linebreak assist and even his electric running game had been largely stifled with the majority of his metres gained coming on fortuitous breakaways rather than coming in the flow of the attack
However, it turns out that Bennett knows more about rugby league than most as Milford steadily improved as the season wore on. He improved so much that I named him as the five-eighth in my team of the year after he finished the season with 13 tries and 18 linebreaks, but more importantly with 17 try assists and 17 linebreak assists. Every single one of them coming from playing in the halves.
The remarkable thing is that Milford still has plenty of potential to grow. He is yet to develop any sort of kicking game and as teams begin to focus on shutting down his running game, to the extent that they are able to, he will have to further develop his passing game to ensure that he remains a dual threat.
Milford was outstanding in 2015 but the incredible thing is that 2016 could well be better.
Predicted finish: Top four
The bookies have the Broncos as premiership favourites and that billing is well deserved. After going within seconds of the title in 2015 the team has lost no significant players but rather has upgraded at centre with the arrival of Roberts and in the forwards with the return from injury of McGuire.
Milford and Hunt, meanwhile, will continue to improve and it’s worth remembering that Darius Boyd has only played 18 games with the club after starting 2015 on the injured list.
Unless something goes badly awry this team will certainly finish in the top four and is rightly favoured to be there on grand final day.
Jason Miller
Roar Rookie
Adam Blair will be starting going on last year, by far and away he was their best forward - with quite a distance to the rest. Not sure who goes to the bench or what the reshuffle will be but he will be starting no doubt.
The Prize_Man
Roar Pro
Disagree wholeheartedly, the last ten rounds and the finals did an outstanding job upfront last year, he is essential to the defensive strategies of the broncs, they run small and mobile in the forwards. Took down jwh in one game aswell.
up in the north
Roar Rookie
Using Sammy as a prop didn't work for hook, and uncle Wayne must've thought so too last year. His biggest strength is as a second rower with an intent to tackle the house down while also running the ball in attack.
The Prize_Man
Roar Pro
Thaiday on the bench for mine in the front row rotation and to cover the 10-15 Parker needs a rest. Glenn and gillet play 80.
The Prize_Man
Roar Pro
They lack top quality speed, surely thats not in question. Oates can move well for a big man and is probly close over a 100m or so but over 20m-40m he is not in the same league
Jara W
Guest
This seems to be a pretty common sentiment and its bugging the hell out of me. I can’t remember the last time everyone agreed with such confidence that one team stood out from the bunch. Simply put, the odds of a Broncos premiership are 1 in 16 !!! Ok, it’s hard to argue that the premiership is a 16 team race, but at least 6 of those teams are a decent shot. Food for thought…. Round 1 last year the Rabbitohs defeated the Broncos 36-6. The already short odds of a bunny’s premiership dropped even lower, and there was talk of Brisbane talking out the spoon. History tells quite a different story though.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I dont think you'll lose too much either. He still played a role though with those great dummy half runs to get momentum going. Roberts is good as well but Hodges was the master. It just changes their style a little.
shorty
Guest
You think the Broncos lack speed oats was only just shaded by Roberts in speed during the pre season and he's over 100kgs
Joe
Roar Rookie
Yep, this team will be up there come finals time. Strong all around with a great coach. Anything less than top 4 would be disappointing.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
As a rule I've picked the likely team to start the season which is often as not pretty similar to the team that ended last season. Teams aren't making wholesale changes. But i think you'll find that almost every team has a few likely changes projected. With injured or suspended players I've tended to include players who are expected back in the first couple of weeks but excluded guys out for a month or more. My understanding is that Reed is hurt and unlikely to return until Round Six or so which is why I've excluded him. I do think he is probably still the default centre when he returns though.
Bugs
Guest
Hehe - it'll pay off about 50% of the time based on last years form! I've noted in your reviews Lachlan that your starting list is usually very close to the previous years XVII. Even after talking up a newbie, or young talent rising up you stick largely with 2015 team. But here, I notice you've not only replaced Hodges with Roberts, but Jack Reed with Kahu too. As a Broncs supporter, I like Reed. I was at his first game, and he scored his first try pretty much right in front of me (off a scrum and a perfect little outside ball from...you guessed it, Darren Lockyer). But I think Kahu is a gun, and demands a place in the starting line-up. I think Jack may be relegated to the wing this year. A couple of years ago there was talk about Reed moving into the 2nd row. Can't see it happening personally.
Bugs
Guest
Yes, I've seen some slimmed down pics of Thaiday, and talk he's moving back to the edge... In that case, McGuire and Blair start, with Parker at 13, and Glenn, Gillett and Thaiday battling it out for a starting edge spot. Its a choice Griffen just couldn't make, and in doing so stuffed up team balance. Look forward to seeing which one Bennett shows tough love to, as all three had really good years last year.
The Prize_Man
Roar Pro
Nice review, The big question for me this year will be how Bennett rotates the front row with Mcguire back. In Blair, Thaiday and mcguire you have three props capable of playing big minutes and the last half of last year i would say the Blair was the form forward of the comp and if he continues like he was he needs to play big minutes. Their forward pack looks to be very well placed for the new interchange rules it will be interesting to see how that plays out.
The Prize_Man
Roar Pro
Agree, Roberts has something you can't coach, speed. This is also the one thing that the broncos lack in their outside backs with none of Oates, Maranta, Boyd, Reed or kahu being exceptionally fast. He is without a doubt a developing player still and his defense has some big question marks but all player transfers are a risk and this is one well worth taking.
The Prize_Man
Roar Pro
both hunt and milford had their breakout years in 2014 not 2015. Hunt had 13 tries 19 line breaks and 19 try assists in 2014. in 2015 his numbers where less but thats because milford arrived and shared the load. Ben hunt has been outstanding 2 years in a row now and i think he deserves to be considered one of the best halves in the league behind only thursto and cronk.
Ken
Guest
Hard to find fault with the Broncos - great looking team, top coach, the experience from last year. Worthy favourites at this stage. If you had to pick a reason for caution, it would just be the general NRL pattern of runners-up rarely going on with it in subsequent years - especially when they've had a quick rise to being a contender (which Brisbane hadn't been for some time previous to last year).
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
I'm a huge Corey Oates fan and shall be gambling on him to score first try in every single game the Broncos play this season where he is in the starting line-up.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
Cheers Max thanks for reading. I've enjoyed writing all of the previews thus far. Look out during the season for my regular Thursday Night Forecast series plus anything else I get the time to write
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
That's a fair point about Roberts but I guess the counter to that is that he couldn't be a better situation to succeed than the one he finds himself in now. Outstanding and well respected coach at a club with a strong culture and plenty of other point scoring options. He certainly could regress but even if he does it won't doom the team.
The eye
Guest
Corey Oates and Jarrod Wallace to have career defining seasons..it's their time..