If the success or quality of any competition is to be measured by its evenness and depth, and there is some debate if that’s entirely the best method, then the A-League has made strides in the right direction this season.
With only seven rounds until the finals, it’s fair to say that the titles, both the premiership and championship, are as open as they’ve ever been, with no less than seven of the 10 teams still feeling they’re in with a shot at both.
What’s more, the standard of the football in the past few months has been very good, perhaps as deep as it’s ever been.
Usually, by this time of the season, the top six has just about sorted itself out, with two or three standing out up top, and two or three purely making up the numbers. If there’s a race for the finals it’s simply to make up the numbers.
That’s been the case every season of the first 10 years for the competition, and I, as well as many others, have often argued that six finals spots is a reward for mediocrity.
Take Brisbane Roar and Melbourne City, who made it with 34 and 35 points respectively last season. Both had a negative goal difference.
This has been the trend for teams finishing in the bottom two of the top six across the A-League’s life.
Compare that to the ladder this season, where fifth and sixth-placed Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC, and seventh-placed Perth Glory, are already on 29, 29 and 28 points respectively, with all of them having a positive goal difference.
It’s fair to suggest you’d need at least 40 points to make the final this time around.
Dig deeper and there are only seven points between top-placed Wanderers and Glory, who meet in an enticing clash in Parramatta tonight.
With an Asian Champions League campaign in the mix for the Victory and Sydney FC, three-point suspended sentences hanging over the Victory and Wanderers, and upcoming World Cup qualifiers, there’s still so much to play for between now and the abbreviated finals series in April.
Genuinely, you could make a case for any of the seven.
Sydney’s campaign has stuttered along for the most part, but if they can reproduce the type of commitment and control they showed against the Wanderers in the derby on Saturday night, they can’t be discounted.
Finishing stronger physically, the return of skipper Alex Brosque adds plenty, while Matt Simon turned back the clock with the type of in-your-face pest-like performance that would trouble most defenders if replicated from here.
Sydney’s biggest hurdle, apart from consistently producing that type of effort, remains the travel and flurry of games that comes with being part of the ACL.
The same goes for the defending A-League champions, Victory.
Already we’ve heard rumblings from those that missed out on the continental squads, and the managerial quality of Graham Arnold and Kevin Muscat will be tested over the next couple of months.
We saw what an impact it had on Tony Popovic’s campaign last time around.
The Wanderers, though, have rebounded well this season, recruiting much better, but for the Italian marquee Federico Piovaccari.
The derby was far from a disaster, but it did expose a couple of things.
Most interestingly, the Wanderers looked heavy and lagged in the final 25 minutes. Popovic could have done more to freshen the side by giving Brendan Santalab more than seven or eight minutes at the end, particularly with the likes of Mark Bridge and Mitch Nichols looking spent from a game of high physical attrition.
The Wanderers though remain right up there in the premiership reckoning, especially when the three Spaniards, Alberto, Andreu and Dimas, are on the field, as they will be tonight.
While their finishing remains more miss than hit, they’ve tended to control most games and are creating chances.
But they are not unshakable. Sydney have proved that in recent times.
Perth, with Andy Keogh, Chris Harold and Diego Castro flying, and Shane Lowry adding some stability in defence, have summoned five wins on the spin and could really make a statement at Wanderland tonight.
The January transfer window has been kind to the likes of Kenny Lowe and John van ‘t Schip.
The latter was found a little wanting a short time ago at Wanderland, but he continues to reside over a team on the rise, and if Aaron Mooy and Bruno Fornaroli can sustain their form into the finals they have two players that can win games on their own, almost as good to watch as Elkeson and Dario Conca, who we got to see at AAMI Park on Wednesday.
But van ‘t Schip still has much to prove from a tactical perspective come the finals.
John Aloisi has proved he has learnt a lot in his time away from coaching since the Melbourne Heart gig, but like van ‘t Schip his biggest test awaits, especially with his foreign contingent being a work in progress at the moment.
This is a team that nominally relies on an Australian 8 (Matt McKay), 10 (Dimi Petratos), 7 (Brandon Borrello) and 9 (Jamie Maclaren). It would be some feat if they went all the way.
Guillermo Amor, on the other hand, has been quite the revelation. Many, including this correspondent, thought he’d struggle to fill the boots of the flamboyant Josep Gomabu, but he has set about quietly building to the point that United look the real deal, and continue to improve.
Coming across as the most humble of managers, Amor appears to have the full respect of his players by treating them with a human touch. Who wouldn’t want to play for a manager like that?
I’ve been mighty impressed with the addition of swap-deal Stefan Mauk to his midfield. He seems to have taken to the Jimmy Jeggo role with aplomb, and looks to have the potential to become a more regular goal threat.
Also catching the eye in recent weeks has been the form of wide attackers Craig Goodwin and Bruce Kamau, the Gareth Bale and Raheem Sterling of the A-League at the moment.
Meanwhile, Jordan Elsey and Dylan McGowan, in central defence, have gone to another level since Osama Malik left.
There’s been much doom and gloom surrounding the A-League this season. The standard wasn’t great early doors as Adelaide and the Glory struggled, and the crowds were a real disappointment.
But since the active fan groups turned the heat on the FFA over the banning process by staging walk-outs in the wake of the Rebecca Wilson publishing the banned list in November, fans have been galvanised and have been turning up in very good numbers.
While the published ratings on pay and free-to-air television continue to be lower than the heights reached in season eight – the year that Alessandro Del Piero, Shinji Ono, Emile Heskey and the Wanderers hit the scene – and flares have dominated the headlines this month, no-one can be critical of the standard of play the past three months.
Only Arnold has been guilty of adopting defensive tactics, but even he appears to have got the message after the second Sydney derby in January.
Even the three teams at the bottom – Newcastle, Wellington and the Mariners – have played proactively at times, and are anything but the basket-cases we have seen at the bottom in the 10 years of the league.
It paints a picture of a competition finally developing a technical soul. Of course, it’s not the greatest football on the planet, but it’s been very watchable this season, and I’ve got no doubt the cooler conditions this summer have played a significant part.
Apart from that, coaches have generally set their teams out to be proactive, pressing and defending high, being offensive even in defence.
The work of the man I dubbed the Dalai Lama, Andres Carrasco, at the Wanderers, is a prime example of the more positive angle across the league.
Tony Walmsley might be at the bottom of the table, but his team is anything but the dour one set out by Phil Moss last season.
There’s also plenty of quality foreigners like Fornaroli, Alberto, Andreu, Milos Ninkovic, Castro, Keogh, Thomas Broich, Besart Berisha, Gui Finkler, Corona, Luis Garcia, Roly Bonevacia, Isaias, Marcelo Carrusca, Cirio, Dimas and many more.
And beyond that there are some talented youngsters coming through like Kamau, Mauk, Jonathan Aspropotamitis, Borrello and Thomas Deng.
It sets the scene for a riveting, open climax to the season, and while some so-called ‘all sport’ experts tell us the league is in a rut, the evidence is the standard of play hasn’t been as high across the board.
Punter
Guest
'Surely we are attracted to sport because of the stats?? ' Yes I can see it now, a few guys in the pub in Melbourne, one says did you see the game on the weekend, ahhh yes says another, the ratings was amazing, yes says another, 35% of those were regional, ahhh that explains it, I noticed that it was 80% males watching the game, naaa I saw somewhere else they said 35% of fans were female, well last Sat night was the mardi gras on & the women viewers dropped dramatically that night, while they like buff men with tight shorts, they like slightly buffer men with tighter shorts.. Riveting conversions.
Midfielder
Guest
MF Thats a good analysis... however I have friends who attend every Mariners match and who have Fox. They say when the EPL goes to Optus and the Champions League goes to Bisport they can't see the sense in keeping Fox at current prices.. As an aside our house on the Central Coast has just been connected or capable of being connected to the NBN.... so I started checking net prices TPG have a $70.00 package bit only at 12Mpbs speed so it comes down to Optus at $ 90.00 for unlimited at 100 Mpbs speed ..NOW FOR $ 95.00 you get Fetch TV and Optus TV 35 Channels I do wonder if this includes the EPL. My guess is many Football folk who currently enjoy Football on Fox will move if all they have is the A-League.
Midfielder
Guest
Our top three seasons are below in total crowd numbers and I have followed that with 3 different averages and essentially we are on par with the last 3 years... Season Nine(135) 1,761,161 Season Ten(135) - 1,689,510 Season Eight(135) 1,661,830 Season to date 1,325, 261 I assume one of the following will be close to the mark. The last 30 games average 8K / 9k / 10K Finals average 2o k / 25 K / 30 K A] 30 games at 8 K plus finals average 20k is 340, 000 is 1,664,261 B] 30 games at 9k finals average 25k is 395,000 is 1,720,261 C] 30 games at 10k finals average 30k is 450,000 is 1,775,261 Considering the season it’s been this will be quite an achievement.
Horto Magiko
Roar Rookie
"this appears to be the A-League’s natural level, and it will most likely bop around this level for a while yet." "A while yet" hey? How long is that piece of string.. Surely much more apt and less vague than "a while yet" would be; once the next TV deal is done and dusted perhaps? Once we've expanded beyond 10 teams? Even something as simple as a significant amendment to the marquee rules would see your "natural level" theory blown out of the water.... Talk all the statistical mumbo jumbo misdirection nonsense you like..
marron
Guest
I never use the term ironically. Always, always, only as it was originally intended. :lol: It was the very thing that turned me away in the first place. bling don't mean nice football. If football was jewellery, nice football would not be ostentatious shiny diamond encrusted tacky displays of obscene wealth. Bling meant, glitz, glamour, the business end of town, all night Dwight, parties on yachts, breakfast at bondi.
marron
Guest
Remember reading somewhere or other, Sydney is a Georgian city, Melbourne a Victorian one (not in the state sense, you know what I mean). The guts of the place is a mad boozed up free for all. Stick the roads on the horse and goat tracks and have another drink before I pull your nose. The other place, the façade of pomp and propriety, burgeoning industry dictating a no nonsense city plan. It makes it great to visit; mostly everything works neatly. But I know where home is, warts (and they get bigger and more numerous all the time) and all. The brooding, hot, stormy, roach infested den of inequity, the city divided against itself. The Chinese bought 9200 tickets for Wednesdays game I heard. Lets see how big that rent a crowd in chatswood really is!
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Surely we are attracted to sport because of the stats?? :) Speaking of which, I was just checking out that six of the 11 seasons have ended up with an average between 12k and 13k (including this one), as follows: Season Nine 13,046 Season Two 12,927 Season Eleven 12,622 Season Ten 12,515 Season Eight 12,310 Season Four 12,180 As someone has said above, this appears to be the A-League's natural level, and it will most likely bop around this level for a while yet. There has been one season which has been higher, and that was season 3 ending up at 14,610. Of course there were only 8 clubs at that time, and no doubt the average was assisted by the replacement of the Knights by the Nix, but it's an excellent number, and it may never be reached again (especially if the league expands to 12+ clubs). There are also four seasons which ended up below 11k, of course three of those seasons included GCU and the Fury - the replacement of both by the Wanderers was an immediate boost to average attendances, jumping from 10,487 to 12,310 - which is a very big jump in just one season
Realfootball
Guest
No offence, jb! I respect your attention to detail.
j binnie
Guest
REAL - A hundred thousand apologies I thought when you bought in to discussions between me and FIUL that you were interested,obviously a mistake on my part. Once again a huge "Sorry". Cheers jb.
j binnie
Guest
FIUL - No real wish to continue with this discussion but again I take two of your statements to investigation. "If we can keep the average about 12,000 for the final 30 matches.,we'll achieve 2nd highest ever crowds for Aleague football " Season 12/13 average 12,343: Season 13/14 average 13,063; Season 14/15 average 12,515 so we will need a better average than 12,000.!!! We have had 2 rounds this season below 12,000 average , Round 11 (11,978) and Round 12 (11,964). That's all. Cheers jb
Realfootball
Guest
Honestly, jb, less with the endless stats, please. My brain is going numb.
FIUL
Guest
"Luckily for the game it has apparently slowed and stabilized." That's where you & I differ. No luck involved. I had forecast this sort of figure when others were saying "we're all rooned". Why? Because I meticulously keep records & forecast individual matches based on realistic projections. In fact, my projections for NIX, AUFC, MCY, PER have been too conservative. These clubs have exceeded my expectations this season. I can well see Perth having booming final 3 home crowds if they keep playing the attractive football we're seeing. Same with AUFC. AUFC had a bigger crowd this round than WSW. Imagine that. WSW who are considered the No2 fan base in Australia & currently sitting top of the table but AUFC fans love their football & their team is now producing great results. If we can keep the average about 12k for the final 30 matches, we'll achieve 2nd highest ever crowds for Aleague football. So far, we've only had 1 round with average crowds below 12k.. so I'm quietly confident.
j binnie
Guest
FIUL - It is an interesting analysis. You picked Rounds 1-10 this year when crowds dropped from a round 1 total of 64,580 (5 game average of 12,916) to a Round 10 total of 601,091 (50 game average of 12,002) a drop of 914 per game. What you did not mention that there was a huge increase in the average between game 5 and game 13, 12,916 to 15,827. (23%) So you see the "drop" had actually started much earlier than Round 10 in fact falling from a high average of 15,827 at game 13,(round 3) slumping to a season's low at game 56 when it bottomed on 11,872.a real drop of nearly 25%. That is the time you and I first discussed that falling trend and it's ramifications if ir were not halted. Luckily for the game it has apparently slowed and stabilized. We now look at you 10% claim. At game 51 (Round 11) the average continued to fall below 12,000 and has fluctuated round by round ever since peaking at 12,710 after the recent "derby" (at 40,382 the HAL's best crowd of the season),but by the end of the round had actually dropped to 12,652. So you see that increase you mentioned between round 5 and round 10 (10%) is actually only 5.5% With the next round (22) having 3 or 4 of the "lesser" supported teams playing at home that 12,652 will surely get back into the down trend, for despite Victory's 20,000+ gate yesterday it could be back nearer 12,600 by tonight, for last season's CCM v Jets only pulled 10,000 on the opening day of the season. Cheers jb ps After a discussion with Realfootball yesterday I checked my figures, found one slight error that has been fixed,so my figures agree with the FFA.and Real's source. jb
FIUL
Guest
If we split 100 matches (20 rounds) into two lots of 50 matches, R1-10 and R11-20 this is what we find. I've started the analysis from 2012/13 when Del Piero, Ono & Heskey rejuvenated the HAL. R11-R20 crowds compared to R1-R10 2012/13: -6% 2013/14: -9% 2014/15: -16% (some of us suggested this was an anomaly caused by the Asian Cup taking the wind out of the HAL crowds) So, every year for the pat 3 years ... crowds have DROPPED from R11-R20 compared to the first 10 rounds. What about this year?? 2015/16: +10% For the first time in 4 seasons, crowds have risen during R11-R20 compared to the first 10 rounds. Interesting?
j binnie
Guest
Real - In an attempt to settle your thinking re.ratings (which I don't bother about) you again state crowds ar "growing' .when in fact it would be more correct to say they have stabalised to an almost unchangeable figure. Let me explain.Using the drop into the average of 12,000 plus which first occurred at game 40,the average has only dropped below 12,000 plus on 6 occasions.Therefore from game 40 to game 104 (excepting those 6 occasions) the average has fluctuated but has never breached 12,700.At game 40 the average was just over 12,800 and today at game 104 it is 12,667. Hope this helps in some way. Cheers jb
FIUL
Guest
Yes, no argument - ratings on FoxSports are low. I'd ignore OzTAM ratings for SBS - they are unreliable, with biased sampling that excludes households: a) with low commercial tv viewing b) mainly ABC & SBS viewing c) LOTE primarily spoken in the home A significant portion of the football demographic would fall within 1 or more of these exclusion biases. The low FoxSport viewing, I have no answer other than football fans are not keen on wasting money on PayTv. Having said that, are the viewing numbers that low? This season we are averaging 61k on PayTV. The benchmark AFL/NRL average is around 190k. So, if HAL is getting 1/3 of the viewing numbers as the benchmark, is that good/bad/on target? I need more market data & Foxtel customer data to fully understand the viewing dynamics on PayTv. EDIT: One thing I do notice. Aleague matches are always No.1, or thereabouts, trending on Twitter during matches & still in the Top 10 trends across Australia 3-4 hours after the match. By contrast, BBL would not trend strongly on Twitter. I've not paid attention to Twitter trends for NRL & AFL in the past, but I'll keep a watch this season. What does it mean? Who knows. Can this high presence on social media be monitized? We must find a way.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Rf just answering your question above - I agree the ratings are out of kilter with attendances, but I don't have an answer, except that the A-League has managed to build a strong attendance culture, but that has not translated to embedded TV viewing. Focusing on Fox TV, because that is the common denominator across all the codes - these are interesting stats (in round terms): The NRL manages to attract an average 16,000 or so to every game, but the five games telecast on Fox average arounnd 210k, or a ratio of 13 TV viewers to every one attendee at a game. The figures for the AFL are something like 32,000 average at a game and 175,000 average ratings (for all 9 games per round), for a ratio of 5.5 TV viewers to every one attendee at a game. Currently A-League attendances are around an average of 13,000 for an average TV rating of 61,000 or 4.7 TV viewers for every attendee at a game. I don't have the Super rugby figures handy, but my guess is that it would be a very similar ratio to the A-League's (just focusing on the Australian sides). The NRL is an outlier, and no one is going to ever match that ratio in Australia (it is recognised as a very good TV product, and the ratio proves that). However, the A-League ratio is only marginally below that of the AFL, and indeed, you'd have to say that it is capable of matching it with ease, i.e. 13,000 attendee average and 71,500 average rating. It has been there in the past, it's about 10,000 short now. It could just be that a newish competition is going to experience these ups and downs, that "star" players do make a difference (in attracting more neutrals), and that over time, you'd expect a 10 team comp to get a bit stale. Also, worth mentioning that the Nix help keep those average ratings down, having said that, the NRL does not experience the same problem with the Warriors.
Realfootball
Guest
A reassuring argument. But still the fact remains that the ratings are disappointing. Crowds are growing and the football standard is high. I just cannot fathom why ratings are so low. And they are low compared to other sports - there is no argument over that. Do you have a theory? SBS is a disaster, but why aren't Foxtel's figures better? I really don't think there's any point in questioning the figures.
Horto Magiko
Roar Rookie
"Victory couldn’t even beat us when we have 10 men." Get back in your box daniel bagala, you haven't beaten us in two years or something. You're still waiting for your wevenge for the embarrassing spanking we gave you in the GF remember?
Bob Brown
Roar Guru
Sydney FC's attendances are second highest in the League at 17,915. Sydney Roosters, who also share Allianz would kill for that sort of average attendance for their home games. Victory couldn't even beat us when we have 10 men. The Victory goal was offside too, so SFC should have won.