Wow. It’s too early in the season to worry, but I am a little worried about Australia’s Super Rugby teams.
Eight days into the competition proper and already fatal flaws have been exposed in four of the five teams, leaving me with little hope any of them will have much to say come the latter rounds of the season.
Could you see any of the Waratahs, Rebels, Force or Reds making a semi-final this year? Already, the Brumbies are the best and, if we’re honest, Australia’s only hope of representation.
Let’s start with the two teams that participated in what can only be described as a stain on the good name of rugby on Saturday night – the Reds and Force. We aren’t going to call what they did a match or a game are we? That would be too polite.
Richard Graham, who was in charge of the more losing (22-6) Reds, was fired in the aftermath. Statistics, combined with the uninspiring level of play of his team thus far this season suggest Michael Foley, coach of the slightly less-losing on the weekend Western Force, should be let go as well.
During the broadcast of that stain, far enough into the game that things were already bleak (I was checking work emails on a Saturday night), one of the commentators read out the career winning stats for both coaches.
Graham had a 28 per cent winning rate in Super Rugby, while Foley’s is 31 per cent. Between them they have 11 years of coaching in Super Rugby.
How do two coaches continue for so long in charge of 40 per cent of our national provincial rugby teams while performing so poorly?
Last year we may have been collectively too distracted by the World Cup to seriously consider the ramifications of such a situation. This year it has become clear that both squads have declined considerably and wasting time is wasting talent.
In 2016, the Reds roster is in a complete state of disrepair, and the Force are still a group of journeymen, galvanised by a stronger few. It is easy to say that players have left and no stars have chosen to sign with either, but wouldn’t more players chose to stay if they were excited and inspired by their mentors and felt like their game would improve?
In the wake of Graham’s sacking this week, Reds CEO Jim Carmichael said the message from the coach “wasn’t getting through”, which is one of the great clichés in sport.
However, the real error here was re-signing Graham after an at worst sham, at best poorly run, worldwide search. The clear facts were the Reds had fallen off a cliff since Graham took over, the roster had stagnated, and there was no sign of turn around. Yet Queensland wasted a precious off-season of renewal, and the loss of a top player such as Liam Gill may be directly connected to that poor decision.
Foley is in a different category. Things aren’t as dire at the Force, but it is clear that the ‘rinse repeat’ model of work hard and flood the breakdown that has been used for a number of years hasn’t worked. The Perth franchise had one strong year under Foley, finishing eighth with nine wins in 2014, but plummeted back to last place in 2015. They won’t collect another wooden spoon this season, but finishing even as high as eighth looks beyond them.
A new vision, new strategy and new personnel is the best bet for the Force. An uptick in performance and a new head coach may bring a few better players and make better use of the talent available already.
The Waratahs’ depth was one of the squad’s weaknesses leading into the season, and it is already being tested.
Bryce Hegarty, a squad five-eighth who gives depth for Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale (who may have to play some fullback), is out for the year with a ruptured ACL.
Tatafu Polota-Nau, by far the best front-row forward in the squad, is out for six to eight weeks after undergoing surgery to insert a plate and correct what seemed to be a broken arm. The Waratahs were extremely lucky (cough, stacked the committee, cough) their second hooker, Tolu Latu, received a one-week suspension for striking, which conveniently lined up with the team’s bye week. But Latu is a serious step down from Polota-Nau and that front row needs solidity in the scrum.
Rob Horne could also be out, which has led to talk of Israel Folau finally lining up at outside centre. And that would be lovely except at a time of weakness they’d be moving their best player away from his best and most comfortable position.
The Waratahs’ 30-10 loss confirmed they are a full step below the Brumbies. But, more acutely, there was only one point during that match where it really looked like the Waratahs had a path to victory. (Path to victory – I think you’re meant to follow that phrase with a discussion of Ohio and Florida primary votes and a brokered convention?)
The loss followed an easy victory over the Reds that should have been a resounding flogging if the Waratahs were the real deal, based on the lowly state of the Queensland outfit at the moment.
They may not fade as badly as the Reds or Force but the Waratahs would need a remarkable run of injury luck, some superhuman performances from Foley, Folau, Beale and Michael Hooper, and more to really be a threat this year.
Ahh the Rebels. So much early hope. But a small victory against the Force hardly looks amazing now does it? And they started playing rugby against the Bulls once they fell down 42-10.
In a team with so many young players and an environment of striving, not comfortable, excellence, the Rebels are going to feel their injuries this year as well. Colby Fainga’a will miss six weeks with an elbow injury and Mike Harris will be out for up to three months with a quad strain. Scott Fuglistaller, the team’s other specialist on-ball flanker, is out for a few more weeks as well.
Their young captain, Nic Stirzaker, might play only his first game this weekend. He is coming back from a shoulder reconstruction, which is susceptible to re-injury and can take a long time to be 100 per cent (I’d know, I’ve had one). Cam Crawford was struggling with a hamstring injury as well.
It’s not impossible to overcome this list and improve throughout a long season. But the Rebels will likely fall further behind before they catch up and struggle for inconsistency as combinations change.
I won’t spend much time on the Brumbies, except to say: we’re counting on you.
Browny
Roar Rookie
Upside for the Rebels is they have a tough start to the season and probably weren't picked to win many games anyway. There's something like a dozen blokes out at the moment, get some of them back and enter the 'easier' run of games and they hopefully will finish strongly.
Browny
Roar Rookie
Like the AFL at the moment; Brendan Bolton (Carlton), Adam Simpson (West Coast), Luke Beveridge (Bulldogs), Damien Hardwick (Richmond) and Leon Cameron (GWS) are all head coaches after doing an apprenticeship of sorts as assistant coaches under Hawthorn's Alastair Clarkson.
Handles
Roar Guru
Shameless underdogging. I see through you, Richard.
Muglair
Guest
Hard to argue with the analysis here. I was away for round 1 with no coverage and was staggered to see the post match stats for the Qld game. Playing without possession for a whole super rugby season will kill a team physically and it is hard to see the Tahs succeed no matter how well the backs play. I was in Canberra and have not seen the replay. However my overwhelming feeling at the ground was that we were never in it. Although full credit to the Tahs for hanging in there trying to overcome a lack of possession and discipline. My main concern is the Brumbies. The game should have been over at half time and either the Tahs have some real quality that is not evident or the Brumbies were in fact not nearly as good as the media suggest. Only kidding, my real concern is NSW. Hard to see us overcoming the front row issues. Super rugby is generally high standard across the board, very hard to win week in and week out without the ball
Elisha Pearce
Expert
It was close, 125k to 120k, I think. But a bad sign.
Bakkies
Guest
Obstruction should have nothing to do with the rationale. You simply can't pull back a opp player's jersey off the ball in general play.
Bakkies
Guest
I mentioned that 6 years ago.
Bakkies
Guest
'Bakkies says coaching may the problem but they have plenty of quality import coaches' It is. The clubs have their own youth systems with majority local coaches coaching the basics, technical stuff. At elite level French test coaches have all been French throwing out the window what the foreign coaches are doing at club level. French test coaches on 4 year contracts who can't work out their best match day squads turnover 90 players in a RWC cycle. No wonder the players run sideways and in to each other.
Chancho
Roar Rookie
Just on Graham, he really wasn't suited to that job from day one, all he had was experience as a skills coach and that he was from QLD... on Foley, I don't know, I don't see the Force as going anywhere this year... I'm actually really quite down on that franchise in general and the bad coaching is only a part of it. This is their 11th year in SR and they have done sweet FA since joining, and do you know what, I don't see this changing for the foreseeable future... it just smacks of the ARU looking at WA as a gap in the market and that's all... Also, I hate how they don't have a major jersey sponsor, but have separate sponsors for each player, it looks disorganised to me! But worse is this good for the team? What if a sponsor wants more exposure so they tip in a bit more money to keep their player on the field... deep breaths Chancho... It's ok...
Bakkies
Guest
It's more to do with his player management business and heavily critical media articles
Chancho
Roar Rookie
I'm with you Will, I am quite sanguine on the Waratahs and the Rebels, and Brumbies have come out of the gates well. Waratahs bother for me is how the set piece isn't functioning and I can only assume this is because there's been a few personnel changes in this area... front row is different, Potgieter leaving is a huge loss for the Waratahs as well, and I think Dennis is now back to 6 (for some reason I recall he played a lot of the season, especially the first part as a 5, I was assuming so it gives him the best opportunity of making the RWC?)... so there's been a lot of changes... nevertheless, I think they'll come good. Also Waratahs fans, don't forget you had a win and loss in the first 2 games of the 2015 campaign (and the loss was a 12 point thumping from the Force no less) and a -2 PD... so its not all bad... Rebels... I don't know what to say... I saw the Bulls first game of the season and they looked bad, REALLY bad, and I really thought the Rebels were a chance in Pretoria so that loss is quite significant. I didn't see the first half of the Bulls game, but that was where all the damage had been done, I don't know if the Bulls took the foot off the gas or what, but the Rebels didn't look like a side that deserved that kind of thumping. I can only assume the sapping conditions the week before in Perth, the trip, and with some of the injuries, it really took it out of them? My worry is now how they'll perform against the Reds, given how a side can lift with in the first few games following a replacement coach... so I'll reserve judgement till then
winston
Guest
IF NSW don't fire it should be a relatively easy road for the Brumbies, they' should get home advantage which will put them in great stead for a final.
Squirrel
Guest
The Randwick pack 1.daly 2. Eddie Jones (Phil Kearns 2nd grade wallaby hooker. 3. Ewen Mckenzie 4. Warwick Waugh 5. 6.Maxwell 7. Simon Poidevin 8. Cheiks Backs had Ella brothers Matt Burke ( manly league player) , Lloyd walker , Campese and David Knox. They would beat most international sides
Chivasdude
Guest
Does anyone mention that Australian rugby does not have the talent to field 5 teams? We are stretched too thin. Only the Brumbies look the hoods so far. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
pm
Guest
Was at the game Harry. You are correct Harry the rebels are at long way from gone. The first half was not a real representation of the game. The Rebels showed a lot of character, McMahon in particular playing with one eye closed and unknown whether his eye socket had been fractured. Still managed to make 17 tackles, 11 runs for 83 metres. I think they are still a chance.
JohnB
Guest
I don't like saying relatively complimentary things about NSW, but while 32-15 looks a solid win to the Brumbies, don't forget they scored 7 points from deep right on fulltime to blow the score out somewhat, or that had NSW scored the try that was (quite reasonably) disallowed for obstruction they were right in the game at probably 25-22. Fair to say there must be plenty of doubt that that try would have been stopped without the obstruction. Mind you, if someone on the attacking side is dumb enough to grab a defender in that situation they deserve to be penalised so NSW can't say they were robbed.
Yogi
Roar Pro
Yeah Carmichael has said he is not seeking to renew his contract but no doubt he has been pushed. By allowing him to stay until the end of the year they avoid another contract pay out, buy time to find a successor, reduce the turmoil from lack of continuity. It would have been stupid to boot him straight out.
Yogi
Roar Pro
McKenzie used to say Cooper was the best player he had ever coached for his ability to implement a broad range of game plans. Cooper never received enough credit for that IMO.
Yogi
Roar Pro
The Jags look the goods to me. 1 from 2 in South Africa is a very good start. They came very close to beating the Sharks which would have been an amazing start to the season. They have the quality and experience to win the comp in their first year. They are not that different to the Pumas team that obliterated Ireland in the quarter finals.
Yogi
Roar Pro
Compare the French system to the Australian system. We have five teams with a small proportion of imports in them so around 120 squad placements for Australians. In France there are 14 teams with a much larger proportion of imports, so around 250 squad placements for locals. So they get more opportunities for local players plus they get to play with and against genuine quality imports in the french comp, plus the exposure of Heineken cup. It is pretty much the ideal system for developing talent. Anyone who says the french system is failing Les Bleus hasn't thought it through. Bakkies says coaching may the problem but they have plenty of quality import coaches. Could be that rugby has become geographically localised in the south and marginalised by football in France so French schoolboys don't aspire to play for Les Bleus.