NRL Thursday Night Forecast: Panthers vs Bulldogs

Welcome back to The Roar‘s NRL Thursday Night Forecast.

We started well last week by correctly predicting that Brisbane would win in a close game against Parramatta. And while our first try scorer selection Corey Oates didn’t open the scoring he did damn near everything else.

We continue this week with the same format as last week with a look at both team’s recent form, an analysis of all the line-up changes, an examination of what to watch for tactically and finally a (probably incorrect) first try scorer tip and match prediction.

As always we finish with our shoe-in of the week.

Recent form
Unlike last week we now have some genuine form to consider.

Firstly, the home team who lost a close game in Canberra. In seasonably hot conditions both teams were very scratchy making a combined 22 errors. For the Panthers, it probably goes down as a lost opportunity as the team led 22-16 early in the second half before surrendering the last 14 points. The team struggled in particular after the loss of James Segeyaro to a broken arm at around the 55-minute mark.

By contrast the Bulldogs were runaway winners at Brookvale Oval, turning forward dominance into an early rout as they cruised to a 22-0 half-time lead and a final score of 28-6. Just how dominant were the Bulldogs forwards?

Well, in the first half alone James Graham had 18 carries for 129 metres, Aidan Tolman had 17 carries for 98 metres, Tony Williams ran for nearly 90 metres and Sam Kasiano had nearly 70. Meanwhile, Jake Trbojevic led the Eagles with only seven carries for 57 metres as Manly were starved of possession.

It was a statement performance from a team that split the pundits in the early season assessments.

Team line-ups
Only Round 2 and already we’re seeing injuries at key positions for a lot of teams including this week’s Thursday combatants. As with last week, we present the team list according to how the team actually lines up on the field.

The first thing to note is that both teams will be fielding a new No.9 after both lost their first choice hooker to injury in Round 1. At this stage it is expected that Segeyaro will be sidelined for six to eight weeks and Michael Lichaa to miss four to six weeks.

Coincidently both teams actually did have first-grade standard backup dummy halves on their rosters in 2015 with Apisai Koroisau at the Panthers and Damian Cook at the Bulldogs. However both were released in the off-season leaving the teams decidedly thinner in the position.

The Panthers have surprised some by selecting Tyrone Peachy as a make-shift dummy half to replace Segeyaro rather than promoting junior international Zach Dockar-Clay from their NSW team. While Dockar-Clay was a half until recently he has been earmarked for the dummy half role at the Panthers and has trained at the position since joining the club.

Aside from that the Panthers also welcome back Elijah Taylor to the top grade after he was a late omission in favour of James Fisher-Harris for the game against the Raiders. Taylor is a fine player however it remains to be seen whether his game is suited to an impact role off the bench.

As I wrote in my Panthers season preview, Taylor is a player whose value is mostly tied to his high work rate. So if he’s not playing 80 minutes or near to it, it isn’t clear where he fits for this team.

Finally for the Panthers, Will Smith is retained at fullback with Matt Moylan still injured. Smith was among the Panthers’ best in the loss to Canberra, positioning himself well in defence and contributing in defence. Smith even deputised at dummy half in attack after Segeyaro went off injured.

For the Bulldogs it will be Craig Garvey who deputises for injured hooker Lichaa. Garvey joined the Bulldogs from the Dragons in the off-season after playing ten games for the club over three seasons, all bar one of them off the bench.

Beyond the inclusion of Garvey in place of Lichaa the Bulldogs also welcome back the junkyard dog David Klemmer from suspension and give a debut to right centre Kerrod Holland who joined the club from the Knights in the off-season and will replace the injured Chase Stanley. Holland was named at centre in the NSW Cup team of the year in 2015 and at 23 years old will be looking to jump start his first grade career.

Meanwhile, if ever there was a case of the rich getting richer it is adding Klemmer to a Dogs forward pack that just ran all over the Sea Eagles.

What to watch for: The 106-kilogram halfback
For several years the Bulldogs have built their team around the strength of their forward pack and after their dominant performance on Friday evening at Brookvale that is where we shall focus.

While many were predicting the Bulldogs might struggle to adapt to both the heat and the reduced interchange, instead the team thrived with James Graham in particular turning in a truly epic 72-minute, 185-metre, 39-tackle performance.

We’ll get to Graham shortly but first it’s worth exploring the fallacy that the Dogs were likely to struggle with the reduced interchange.

With Josh Jackson and Tony Williams both very comfortable playing 80 minutes on the edges, the reality is you only have to fill 240 minutes of middle unit time. Which means that even if Graham drops back from the colossal 72 minutes he turned in on Friday to a more human 60-65 minutes and Tolman stays at around his 2015 average of 60 you still only need to get around 115 to 120 minutes from your starting lock and bench middles.

Which means about 40 minutes each for international representative Greg Eastwood, international representative Sam Kasiano and NSW representative Klemmer. Each of those players is more than capable of playing effectively for that long and it requires only six changes to get them all on and off the field leaving two in reserve for another player such as Tim Browne.

Of course it helped on Friday night that Tolman was taken from the field just before half-time with a free interchange after he was hurt as a result of foul play.

But Graham’s value extends beyond simply the amount of time he spends on the field. We’ve heard it many times before but Graham is such a skilful player for his size – heck for any size really – that he truly is an additional playmaker out there. Possessing both a neat passing game and the intelligence to utilise it effectively, especially inside the opposition 20-metre line, Graham adds an additional dimension in attack that few teams enjoy.

This skill was on display very early on Friday night as Graham combined first with Lichaa and then linked with the actual halfback Moses Mbye to post the first points of the Bulldog’s season.

The play starts with a play the ball right under the black dot. As we pick it up in this first image Lichaa is about to pick up the ball and head left. The defence could be forgiven for thinking he’s heading for Williams and Tolman, either of whom could be set to charge at the line. Indeed we can see Martin Taupau (next to the post) and Nathan Green already facing towards that Bulldogs left side.

However we can also see the 106-kilogram halfback Graham beginning to head back in the other direction. As the play unfolds Lichaa will actually dash left but then spin around and pass the ball back to Graham.

Graham has now received the pass from Lichaa after a nifty pirouette from the young dummy half. He heads across field while Martin Taupau tries to re-direct his forward motion. Here was can already see the value of Graham as a dual threat.

From here Graham can either hit Josh Jackson with a short pass or instead pass to Mbye who has, along with Josh Reynolds, followed him across the park. It is essential though that Graham gets his timing right and passes the ball before he runs behind Jackson or any resulting try could well be called back for an obstruction.

We can see here that Graham has indeed dropped the ball back to Mbye who is immediately shifting it further on to Reynolds. Left centre Steve Matai has been drawn in by the decoy run from Chase Stanley after Mbye held it just long enough. Meanwhile, Jorge Taufua is now isolated out on his wing. Things are about to get very complicated for Jorge.

With two on one, Taufua is now completely exposed. Reynolds can either attack the line himself or, as he did in this case, pass it off to Sam Perrett to ease into the corner

It’s an excellent play design but the execution is even more impressive for a team 11 minutes into their season and it relies in large part on Graham.

He has to first read the play and then secondly make the correct decision as to when to pass to Mbye. Having a big man with that ability to read the game and deliver the right pass opens up a lot of options inside the opposition 20-metre line.

First try scorer tip: Curtis Rona
A heavy favourite with the bookies, Rona has scored 25 tries in 26 appearances for the Bulldogs. He is an excellent finisher (though which winger isn’t these days) and gets plenty of opportunities outside Josh Morris.

Prediction: Bulldogs
While both teams are already battling injuries and the Panthers are the home team, I’m tipping the Bulldogs on the basis of the excellent start from their forward pack in Round 1.

I argued in my season preview that the Bulldogs pack was the best in the competition and that the team’s success would flow from whether their halves were up to the task

On the evidence of the first week, Mbye and Reynolds, and the other half Graham, are well and truly up to the task and that is going to make life very difficult for the Panthers.

Finally, fatigue may also be a concern with the Bulldogs enjoying a leisurely six-day turnaround from a night game while the Panthers had only five days to recover from an afternoon game that was played in typical Canberra punishing heat.

While I generally have very little time for complaints about the schedule, making a team back up after five days from an afternoon game that had every chance to be played in very hot conditions is patently silly and honestly seems like putting the players at risk.

Shoe-in of the week
When the Panthers backing up from a hot weather game is raised during the broadcast at least one nincompoop will make a terrible attempt at a joke about how cold Canberra is.