Stability vs results: Measuring the performance of an AFL coach

Every team wants to win the AFL premiership, but the reality is that there can only be one winner. Team lists are at different phases of development and for many teams more realistic targets need to be set for the season.

For some clubs it might be qualifying for finals, others to win x amount of games per season or others to simply be more competitive than the previous year.

When results do not meet expectation it is generally the coach who wears the blame in what is a results-driven industry. So have some clubs jumped the gun in the re-signing of their coaches for beyond 2016?

Richmond, Collingwood and Brisbane are three clubs who fall into the above category with each club under pressure for different reasons this year. Time will tell if the right decisions have been made but have these decisions been made on merit or to avoid a potential media circus?

The issues at Richmond are well documented, qualification for the last three finals series resulting in three elimination final defeats. Damian Hardwick is now entering his seventh season in charge and some pundits feel failure to win a final should spell the end of his tenure.

Richmond have obviously made the decision signing Hardwick now is not only a great show of faith and stability, but takes away some of the media speculation that would exist if he remained unsigned. Failure to win a final will still have the media applying the blowtorch regardless of Hardwick signing a two-year contract extension.

Nathan Buckley was always taking over Collingwood with a different kind of pressure in place. Unlike taking over a club at rock bottom, Collingwood had won the 2010 premiership and played in a grand final in 2011 before Buckley took over from Mick Malthouse for the 2012 season.

A certain level of expectation was already in place. Collingwood did make finals in the first two years under Buckley but each of Buckley’s four seasons in charge has seen a decrease in the wins column. Seventeen wins in 2012, 14 in 2013, followed by 11 and ten wins in the last two years.

Collingwood have recruited well and finals will be firmly on the agenda for 2016. Buckley will also be looking to improve his finals coaching record which currently sits at 1-3. But failure to qualify for finals for a third consecutive year will have the Magpie natives restless.

Brisbane is a club that has absolutely no external pressure from the experts to play finals in 2016. However the expectation is they must improve. What makes the Brisbane situation interesting is analysing Brisbane’s decision to not renew the contract of Michael Voss during the 2013 season.

Voss departed after Round 19 with Brisbane’s win loss ratio at 8-11 and views somewhat split whether the right decision was made. It was acknowledged by Brisbane they would need to undertake a rebuilding phase and some felt Voss had already started that process after some poor recruiting at the start of his stint as coach, which included the failed recruitment of Brendon Fevola.

Brisbane had to deal with a mass exodus of players at the end of 2013 and Justin Leppitsch took over at a club perceived to be in crisis. After seven wins in 2014 the Lions endured a terrible 2015 campaign finishing with four wins and a 17th placed finish.

Brisbane will be one club that being competitive will be a step in the right direction in 2016, but a repeat of last year in which the club lost eight games by ten goals or more will potentially ask more questions than provide answers on the direction the club is heading.

Winning games of football is the best way a club and coach can respond to criticism and for clubs to justify the decisions that have been made. It is fine line because the media always like to say ‘I told you so’ when clubs get decisions wrong.

An intriguing 2016 season is upon us and these clubs will be hoping their coaching decisions are vindicated come the end of the year. The big question is will they be?