After years as a support race on the Golden Slipper card, The BMW (or Tancred Stakes as the old-timers would call it) now has its own feature day.
Worth $1,500,000, it is the only 2400m Group 1 weight-for-age race in the country, but is in an unusual place of not often being a target in its own right, rather used as a prelude to either the Sydney Cup or Queen Elizabeth.
Preferment is the market-elect, and why wouldn’t he be coming off an Australian Cup win, even if it was unjustly given to him in the stewards room.
He’s won three of his last five runs in this country, two of which were at Group 1 level, and in the other two races, the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup, he was given no chance at all by bias and interference respectively. I’m not convinced he gets the credit he deserves, in the shadow of his megastar stablemate, Winx.
Our Ivanhowe was only a length and a half off Preferment in the Australian Cup, but was never really given his chance by the slow tempo of the race. He’d put the writing on the wall first-up with an unlucky eye-catcher in the Peter Young Stakes, and was always going to be most suited when hitting 2400m.
Rising Romance ran an honest race in the Australian Cup, as she often does without winning, and is an ATC Oaks winner and Caulfield Cup place-getter at the mile-and-a-half distance. She’ll be good each-way value again, and her versatility is a plus.
Almoonqith also ran in the Australia Cup, bringing in the field, but he’s going okay, and he won the Geelong Cup with authority back in October the last time he saw this trip. He can’t be ruled out.
The two horses from the Ranvet have reached something of a D-Day this prep after efforts that could be described as no better than even.
Mongolian Khan was a Caulfield Cup winner only five months ago, and his class is unquestioned, but how he has come back from his troubles might be. Storm the Stars has put in a couple of performances that haven’t matched the quality we expect from a Chris Waller import. Perhaps the master trainer has a trick up his sleeve.
Who Shot Thebarman is another who has an impressive 2400m win under his belt this racing season, from when James McDonald took the initiative in the Zipping Classic and bolted in over his rivals to the tune of seven lengths. He’s ready to go now, and while he might not have the class of some of these, another daring ride might be the order of the day.
Grand Marshall is eyeing off the Sydney Cup, and you couldn’t pick him on top in this. A recent Godolophin acquisition, Arab Dawn, is coming off a flop in the Canberra Cup, and might be entertained at speculative odds if that performance is forgiven.
The x-factor of the race is provided by the three-year-old Montaigne, backing up off his second in the Rosehill Guineas last week. He ran into a superstar of a staying colt in that race, but he beat the rest of the boys comfortably (the filly Jameka was in third), including the Group 1-winning Vanbrugh.
Not quite sure what to make of him here, especially given he is still in his first campaign, and has been racing for three months solid now. You can always count on Anthony Cummings for something out of the box.
There’s no natural speed in the race, but hopefully we don’t get a repeat of the Australian Cup when all jockeys were just happy to dawdle, and in the process give most of their mounts no chance. At least in Sydney you can always rely on them to chance their arm a bit more, and risk losing to try and win.
Selections:
1. Preferment 2. Who Shot Thebarman 3. Our Ivanhowe 4. Rising Romance
The Vinery Stud Stakes is the support Group 1 to The BMW, a 2000m race for fillies. The last couple of years has produced winners that have gone onto success as mares, but it’s often not the case.
Similar to Montaigne above, Jameka is also coming from last week’s Rosehill Guineas, where she ran a very creditable placing, indicating that she is back to top form and ready to strike now. She’s never been set the task of backing up before, so that must be a query, but the distance and her class aren’t.
Risque is also coming off a placing in a Guineas against the boys, but hers was over 1600m and down at Flemington, a race where she beat Jameka home. Her talent was there for all to see with a blazing first-up victory, and she looks ready to record another one now.
Stay With Me won the Thousand Guineas in fine style in the spring, also tying into Jameka, who ran second to her in that event. She is coming out of a very good run in the Randwick Guineas (so many Guineas, who can keep track!), and is up to 2000m for the first time in her career.
She gets better with each run this prep and it’s worth remembering that her dam, Miss Finland, won this race in 2007.
The only other horse in single figures is Happy Hannah, a Snowden filly that has been doing it easily at her last couple in the lesser grades. She’s in a stable flying high after last week’s Golden Slipper victory, but she’s certainly short enough here taking on the cream of her age group.
The Kiwi’s haven’t been tearing up the autumn like they sometimes can, but Valley Girl gets the chance to stake her claim, coming off a Group 1 win and close up finish in the New Zealand Derby. Capella finished right next to her in that Derby, but how does that form hold up?
Honesta is well-named, but hasn’t quite been as effective this time in as she was in the spring. Ambience raced well in the same races as her in the spring, but perhaps both are feeling the effects of the Oaks 2500m from Cup week?
Single Gaze looks great value coming off a Keith Nolan win after splitting Ghisoni and Stay With Me in the Surround Stakes. She also ran an excellent second in the Magic Millions Guineas behind Mahuta, and at the least shouldn’t be $17.
Asinara is building nicely to the Oaks, but I don’t know if it’s her time yet. Sailing By is underrated, and is the value pick for wide quaddies and other multiples. I’m not sure I need to be with any of the others.
Selections:
1. Risque 2.Jameka 3.Stay With Me 4.Single Gaze
johny bulldog
Guest
Go Preferment!
Tomas Kelly
Roar Rookie
Nice work with the BMW quinella Cameron!!
kv joef
Roar Guru
the race that has my interest is the Easter Cup at Caulfield. Team Hawkes probably set Leebaz for this a little ago; they have him in the race on the right mark; has a great trip record in this class and then ... these pesky internationals have accepted. Reckon Hawkes would have been on the phone telling the stewards to check their work permits ... ah well, best laid plans, but still, you never know, maybe the racing gods will cut them some slack :) . ... The FBI have another real nice german horse in the Easter Cup with Guardini. Form is sound and unlike many Euros, likes a good track. Hard not to see his last start effort not counting in this. Weir's Manndawi has a 1.5L second to Flintshire early on and certainly hasn't disappointed me since his arrival. I thought Observational was OK at Bendigo. He was taken straight to G-level in G.B starting a $4.3 to beat Snow Sky in a G3. Looks well placed here and then you have the enigma, Puccini who could do anything ... great race. In the BMW, think Mongolian Khan will go alright, like the way he chased in the last 50m of the Ranvet. Looked good for the Sydney Cup and expect him to be good here. Wow, I'm bowing to the opinion of CWaller and HBowman with their appraisal of Preferment distance capabilities. I understand what they are saying, although I'd probably still be with MK anyway. As mentioned everywhere, Ivanhowe looks beautiful in this. High class horse, at his trip on a surface that could be a touch wetter but will be OK. thought Malaguerra could have won the Galaxy last week, so we should get a good look at him in this with reference to the Brisbane sprints. The 3yr-old races at Rosehill are a bit too hard for me but should provide enough info to sort the ATC classics.
Rob
Guest
I think the lack of pace gives Whoshotthebarman a chance to replicate his style of win at Sandown last year, which was won with a truly outstanding ride. Clearly a class below Preferment but that will be his chance today.
Sausages
Guest
Great read Cam. I am not the biggest fan of Preferment but when you outline his last 5 runs like you did it's pretty clear he's a special horse. In saying that I am with Our Ivanhowe here, but not with a great deal of confidence. Agree re Risque, I think the Palentino/Tarzino form should do the job here.
johny bulldog
Guest
Preferment-the more u put on the more u get back gents!
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Also, Lee Freedman tweeted that Our Ivanhowe is recovering from a foot abcess. I still think Sydney cup is his race
no one in particular
Roar Guru
I think solicit is too short also. Tough to win drawn wide over the the 15 at Rosehill, especially with the weight. The 2 3yo have to give weight to older horses. I was hopinh Zanbagh's next run was going to be a mile at Randwick. Telepaphic at 10's is a good e/w bet
Razzar
Guest
Down at the Heath I'm focused on the Vic handicap. Although Red Bomber is drawn awkwardly. His last race win proved to me he's a bull dog of a galloper. That was 2nd up, so some improvement is natural. Has an affinity with the track, so possibly being wide with clear running , probably in his favour. Plus I rate him a 6/1 chance considering all aspects. Fixed, he's much better than that. Heading north for the mares race. Solicit goes around again, should lead, but now 5th run in reckon she's around a 2/1 chance Badawiya won well in Melb, should settle handy, but meeting seasoned Mares, I rate her a 9/2 chance. Slightly Sweet, well she has just about lost all the friends she ever had. Drifting in market day by day. I even question myself about her. But now third up. She might settle a pair more forward...Her unlucky runs in the spring especially The Myer Classic. Is why she can't be dismissed. I believe around 7/1 is her true price. The BMW... What a Brut of a race. Who is the best stayer? Just my opinion. For mine Our Ivanhoe stands tallest. He has the runs on the board, now completely seasoned. He looks ripe for this. Looks a 9/4 chance for mine. The rest to me are unders. Enjoy the day punters & Good Luck !
no one in particular
Roar Guru
I can't see any pace in the BMW. Maybe the 3yo goes forward with no weight, or Rising Romance. If it turns into a mile and half sit and sprint Preferment should be too good