Five tricky teasers for Super Rugby Round 6

Round 6 could be something of a moving week in Super Rugby, with all but one game pitting teams in close table proximity against each other.

The eighth-placed Lions host seventh-placed Crusaders. The Blues in 13th host the 12th-placed Jaguares. The third-placed Brumbies host the competition-leading Chiefs.

The two cellar-dwellers meet in Port Elizabeth, and the South African derby pits the 11th-placed Bulls against the Cheetahs in 14th. To finish, the Waratahs in tenth host the Rebels in ninth.

It represents an opportunity for all winners to jump ladder positions, and when viewed like this, it does add some further overall intrigue to the round.

Michael Hooper vs Sean McMahon – the start of something?
This has been one contest I’ve been looking forward to for a few weeks. Michael Hooper has been one of the Waratahs’ best in 2016, but equally, the Melbourne Rebels captaincy – even if only temporary – seems to have lifted Sean McMahon’s game to new levels, too.

I’ve very deliberately not looked at the numbers, but my own perception is that both players have lifted their work rates, and impressively so. To my eyes, it seems as though Hooper is playing a little tighter with a couple of younger backrow partners, and though he’s still not necessarily winning a lot of turnovers, it feels like he’s having a bigger impact on slowing down the opposition.

McMahon, to me, feels like he is winning more ball this season, but that could easily be put down to him playing the genuine openside role. I don’t know that he’s carrying more than last season, but it does feel like he’s getting though more work in defence.

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If someone has looked at the numbers, it would be interesting to see whether my perception matches reality.

Regardless, it shapes as an interesting battle on Sunday, even if they won’t necessarily come into contact with each other that much. With Liam Gill practicing his French, and David Pocock preparing to cover new school books, it feels like these two could be setting up a nice little rivalry for the Wallabies No.7 in 2017.

What would constitute a moral victory for the Force in Dunedin?
At the time of writing, and of around 250 votes for this match among The Crowd’s tips for Round 6, just eight of you clicked the Western Force to beat the Highlanders tonight. How many of the eight actually believe they can genuinely win is an entirely different story.

The Highlanders are unbeaten in Dunedin this season, and it’s actually just over a year since their last loss under the roof. Further though, since their horror season in 2013 when they ran second-last, the Highlanders have lost just four of 19 games. Two of those four were to the Crusaders, and the first of those four losses, coincidentally enough, was to the Force in Round 5 of 2014.

In 2016, the Highlanders are scoring 3.2 tries per game and conceding two, at an average scoreline of 27.8 points to 18.6. The Force have the worst attacking record in the competition – just four tries in five games – and only the Kings are conceding more tries in defence. The Highlanders rank fourth overall for clean breaks, while the Force rank fourth overall for missed tackles.

(Interestingly, the Highlanders rank quite highly for missed tackles, too, but the Force make so few breaks themselves – and beat only an average number of defenders – per game that it’s unlikely to make a difference.)

So what’s a good result for the Force? A bonus point loss? Two tries? Not conceding a three-tries-plus bonus point?

Given the Force battle to score points themselves – they barely average 14 points per game, but remember they’re not even scoring one try per game – I would think keeping the Highlanders to less than three tries ahead would be a massive effort for the Force in their current form.

Unless someone really thinks they can win. In which case, I’m all ears as to how that can happen.

Off-field issues versus a lap of the southern hemisphere?
The Brumbies-Chiefs game shapes as a cracker, probably the match of the round, and not just for what will be an intriguing match-up on the field.

The Brumbies’ off-field saga is now well documented – albeit missing some crucial details – and is no closer to a resolution.

The Chiefs, since their last home game in Round 2, have travelled from Hamilton to Port Elizabeth to Buenos Aires to Hamilton and now to Canberra. With transit legs along the way, including piling into three tiny planes from Sau Paulo in Brazil down to BA, they’ve conservatively covered more than 33,000 kilometres, and have spent anywhere up to 80 hours in the air!

The Chiefs have something of a lengthy injury toll building, while the Brumbies have just Henry Speight unavailable currently. Their on-field form is good, very good. Currently the best in their respective countries according to the tables. They will both, pending some kind of spectacular implosion, play finals rugby this year.

So where is the edge between them? Can the Brumbies’ defence and breakdown negate the Chiefs’ offload and broken play game? Can the Chiefs win enough territory to create the chances? Can the Brumbies keep the penalty count down?

All good questions, questions I look forward to seeing from my plastic Bunnings chair on the sideline.

18th versus 17th a potential match of the round?
The Sunwolves seem to have become everyone’s second team, and the Kings were actually quite good for 50-60 minutes last week against the Hurricanes. Neither team have had a win in 2016, but the desperation to break the duck will be its highest this season.

And I’ll guess I’m not alone in thinking this, that this game could actually be a cracker! The Kings are the worst defenders in the comp, but will it matter? The Sunwolves play a wonderfully up-tempo game, and are even starting to finish things nicely – is there a better finisher in the comp than Akihito Yamada? – but are they actually creating enough opportunities?

I reckon this game could be quite high-scoring, maybe 40-35 or something like that, but it will be close, and it’ll be entertaining. Well worth the late night Saturday.

Method to the madness in Benn Robinson’s honesty?
The revelations this week from Waratahs prop Benn Robinson certainly triggered some hearty discussion on The Roar. For every Roarer saying he was out of line, there was another saying it refreshingly honest to hear a player speaking so openly.

I was and am of the latter opinion, for what it’s worth, but I get the point of those believing he was out of line.

So what if it was all staged? What if Robinson was staying ‘on message’ and the whole thing was about a young Waratahs pack getting an ideally private rocket in a very public way?

Though they’ve changed a few combinations here and there, there hasn’t been any improvement to speak of. So could it actually have been a very public challenge from the coaches and senior players to the younger guys, and the guys who’ve been on the fringe for a long, long time, to all lift their collective scrummaging game?

We’ll find out on Sunday if it had the desired effect. If it was all staged – and I have no idea if it was or wasn’t – then it might just be Darryl Gibson’s biggest coaching masterstroke yet.