Cameron McEvoy is worth his weight in pure gold

I agree with you 5/9 would be exceptional compared to London & throw in a surprise one or two, yes just as easy for others to upset the Aussie, same as the ability for Aussies to upset others (think 4x100 Women's in London). I would be happy with 7 golds. My biggest argument with you is that you highlight Seebholm & Larkin trials swims not as good last year, showing possible issues, but have faith in Franklin, who's best swims were in 2012 & has gone backwards since then.That was 4 years ago. If Franklin was Australian, I hate to hear what you say about her. Bohl is a rookie, she was 17 years at WC trials & failed to make team for Kazan, she has made a 1 second improvement since last year, she is on the improve, both with age & form, so a 0.5 improvement is not out of the realms of possibility, likewise with McKeon, Breakout trials, big improver. Now not only are both in the running for medals individually, but makes the relay, very strong, compared to last year. If you base all your golds on just history, then just give all the relays golds to the US & let others swim for minor medals. BTW it's not my list!!!!! This is Jamesb, they are not all definite gold medals but they are all gold medal chances & I would say all favourites, I only see 1 or 2 events, where the US swimmers getting favouritism back in these events from the Aussies. M100Back & W4X100Med. But then the US may surprise in a big way. Everyone wants to bring up London, we only went to london as favourites for 2 events, 1 failed miserably, the M4X100, but this was made up by the W4X100, the other favourite lost by 1/100th of a second. Now we have currently up to 9-10 favourites. So expectations are higher, but that is all that is expectations. Every swimmer from every country has to produce it on the day.

Oh, your gold medal chances ARE all chances but I just think that if the strike rate is even 5/9 that would be an exceptional outcome. Larkin COULD win both male backstroke (or conversely not win either) but the 200 looks the more likely. The 100 looks like it could be a much tighter race. He was actually rather untidy at Trials (wandering around his lane) and would need to tidy up that part of his racing. Seebohm is a deserving favourite for the 100back but is her position as dominant as her form of last year ? There still could be a number of "players" in that race. With the 200, Hocking actually "rolled her" at Trials. With regards to Franklin, she was actually right on her game at 2013 Worlds with double backstroke golds. Its since then with back issues and a perhaps counter-productive NCAA stint where things have gone awry. Whilst I think the 100 may be hard for her, she was still able to medal in the 200 (where she IS the WR holder) even when misfiring. I'm not ruling her out. W4XMED: they were the probable favourites in Kazan ...... and walked away with bronze. Whilst there are reasons for confidence that the problematic legs are looking stronger, we will need to see how the meet pans out and the relative confidence levels of those involved. We will also need to see how US Trials pan out and how effectively they are bouncing back from a major blow to their egos. With regards to your medal picks, as I stated above I feel you missed a couple and with others you're probably erring on the distinctly optimistic side. For the latter, I would state both female breaststrokers. Bohl is a senior team rookie and her times would still need to take probably another 0.5 drop. McKeown swam well internationally in 2014 but "imploded" badly in Kazan. Others are swimming 2.19s and she's a 2.21low. I also think the W4X200 is looking historically weak and the two male FS relays read better on paper than their actual performance records. Yes, you could put them as medal chances but I would categorise them as being possible rather than likely. You may think I'm being a naysayer or being negative. If I am then its the product of being an attentive student of history and witnessing campaigns since the mid 70s where expectations were built up sky high but the returns a very severe reality check. London was less a disaster but probably more a return to normal programming after the years of plenty (Syd - Beijing).

Wobat, which ones of the gold medal chances don't you rate? As for the medal chances, they are medal chances & hence fair list, who knows what will happen, if you give faith to Missy Franklin, who has not gone near her best in 4 years, why do you not give those on the improve a chance, most of those have made PBs in the past year, so why are they not potential medal chances, nothing is certain, even Ledecky. An American swimmer can swim a huge PB, just like an Australia or a Japanese or one of the Europeans.

Men: 50FS: McEvoy a potential medallist in a very open and competitive event. 100FS: At this point McEvoy looks the favourite but we really won't have a full read until after US Trials. At minimum a very solid medal bet. Chalmers will do well to make final 200FS: An even that has been slow over the past few years and hence a very difficult race to read. If its faster than expected, I feel both TFH & McEvoy may struggle, if its a 1.45 race then they may be factors. 400/1500: Great Trials times from Horton so he has to be seen as a clear contender in both events but any further than that I'm not willing to go. 100BK: Larkin a clear contender and could win but this looks to be a tightly contested event. Solid medal bet 200BK: Larkin probably more favoured in this one although he will need to tidy up on his Trials performance. 100BRS: Packard performed most commendably to make final in Kazan but will most likely need to swim considerably faster in Rio to repeat this. Ditto for med relay 100/200FLY: Little expectation of either Morgan or Irvine progressing beyond semis at either distance. Main issue will be that they can produce a reasonably competent fly spit for med relay 400IM: TFH could make final but poor backstroke precludes anything more. 4X100:Whilst McEvoy looks capable of absolute stormer splits, there has to be question marks on at least two others. How will Magnussen's psyche handle a demotion to "supporting cast" and Roberts' international CV is mediocre in both individual and relay endeavours. Possible medal but no sure bet 4x200:a relay that so often reads superbly on paper for AUS but over the past 6 years, it has tended to misfire. Colour me sceptical, possible medal chance but nothing more 4xMED: like their female counterparts, they have the best bookends in the business but will the two medal legs be able to keep them in the game. Realistically this is USA's unless they break. Probably the most solid medal bet of the men's relays.

An interesting list; a few on your list I would only classify as outside medal chances/best case scenario and a couple of surprise omissions. This is my read: Women: 50FS: C1 (Cate) probably gold favourite but all 50's have an element of "crapshoot" about them. C2 (Bronte) may've won gold in Kazan but it was a slow race. I feel it will take sub24 to medal; something she has yet to do. Realistically only 1 medal here. 100FS: Either C1 or C2 could win this but so could Sjostrom. Definite strong gold chance and the chance of 2 medals but the medals could fall out in any order of those three 200FS: McKeonE should make final but realistically only an outside medal chance. 400/800FS: Ashwood looks very much in the mix for the minor medals behind Ledecky in both events; but so are 5-6 others. Realistic medal chance but far from a sure bet. 100BK: Seebohm probable favourite but in no way a sure thing for gold. Wilson a realistic medal chance if she can reach her Kazan level. 200BK: Much will hinge on how Franklin swims at US Trials and whether she can reattain her best levels. This will have major bearing on whether both Seebohm & Hocking are contenders for gold or only for minor coin. 100BRS: Bohl's progress over this season has been particularly pleasing, and certainly a promising omen for the medley relay. Should this continue through Rio then she should be a likely finalist. Would not like to predict anything more. 200BRS: If McKeown can hold it all together (something she failed to do in Kazan), then she should make the final. She would however need to drop around 1.5sec to be a realistic medal contender. 100FLY: McKeonE breaking 57sec is pleasing, especially for the medley relay. However, this was a slow race in Kazan (Sjostrom excepted) and likely to be considerably faster in Rio. Should make final but would most likely need to be 56low to medal. 200FLY: Throssell was a pleasing 4th in Kazan but the event is likely to be faster this year. Groves has a record of swimming outstanding times in AUS but has yet to perform anywhere near that level in international competition therefore I'm sceptical re any medal claims. 200IM: If Coutts swims to her Trials level then she should make final. Medal unlikely 400IM: Evans performance at Trials pleasing. If she can swim 4.34 in Rio then she could make final. 4X100: Undeniably prohibitive favourites but relays will always have an element of uncertainties. Both Campbells are fragile both physically and health-wise so there is an element of fingers crossed there. They also nearly broke on one changeover in Kazan so they need to play safe on that front. 4x200: falls away alarmingly after McKeon & Barratt to 1.58s. This relay missed the medals in Kazan and this team does not look any stronger depth wise apart from McKeon's PB advance. Medal chance but no cert 4xMED: In Seebohm and either Campbelll they have the best bookends in the business but it will all hinge on how BRS & FLY hold up (both McKeown & McKeon "froze" in Kazan). USA missed the podium in Kazan so it will be interesting to see how they bounce back and whether they or CHN can have a lead of more than a sec leading into anchor leg

50m is not swimming at this level of competition and should never have been added to the mix.

I personally think the 50 is for bigger swimmers, where it's just fast twitching & raw power, whereas the 200 is about swimming & McEvoy is a beautiful swimmer.

Look beyond, further BigAl, there is a big world out there!!!! 3rd in the 100 free!!!!

the training for it helps his 100. not so sure about the comp.

James Roberts ! - I'd never heard of him so I googled and found: James Roberts, NRL player and someone who is very quick over 100m - on land !!! Is there another James Roberts ? One things for sure - if you fancy yourself as a potential Olympic swimmer, Rugby League is a game to steer clear of.

James Roberts!!!!

So Magnussen is history then - a bit sad but I could see it coming. Swimming is THE sport where you just can not come back from shoulder surgery.

I like the 200, because it helps his 100, the endurance. The 200 is also at present quite weak, whereas the 50 is very strong with Manaudou, a couple of Americans & a Brazilian swimming very fast.

After last night our men's 4x1 has to be a gold chance. Didn't they swim faster than the time that won world champs last year? And they were all noticeably flat after a tough 8 days. They're probably not as strong a gold chance as the ones you mentioned, but still a legitimate chance. Same for McEvoy in the 50 free. And if I were him I'd ditch the 200 free - surely it hurts his 100 and 50 and relays to follow. 3 x hard 200s in a day and a half can't be the ideal preparation. I know swimmers back up well, but it can't be ideal. And nice summary by the way. The ones you have listed as gold chances are probably strong gold chances or - for now at least, until the other countries have their trials - favourites.

I am not a sheep because RL is no 1 sport in Sydney & I do not follow it like everyone else. I tell you what is cool, following the sport you choose to follow. What is not cool is me going on a RL tab on the eve of the SOO telling everyone, biggest game in RL & it;s the same boring old teams & I am suppose to pretend I love my state & spew hate on Queenslanders for 6 weeks a year. If you don't like swimming fine, leave this tab.

The textile best is not held by Cielo, but Manaudou who went 21.19 in Kazan.

It's not mono culture, I like many sports. If swimming was popular it would be on regularly You round ball legends think you are so cultured mahbe you are the mono culture in that you are like sheep that follow the same sport as everyone else instead of local delicassie You are the type that probably think curling is cool because it's Nordic but rugby league is bogan You would see q Brazilian soccer shirt on bondi beach and call that guy cool But see a swans jersey in Barcelona and assume the guy is a bogan

They are boring, no one is interested in watching them week in week out Once in 4 years is enough, if there was popularity you would see swimming on more often And people only watch them to improve their self esteem and feel national pride about how we can swim

Aim for 7 gold? How about win as many possible and appreciating the athlete efforts Setting measuring sticks for medals and tables has become an unhealthy obsession

That's good. Thanks