There has been a fair bit of talk over the opening six rounds about the fairness of the draw. In specific, the instances of teams having to put up with five-day turnarounds.
The NRL have been getting nervous about it themselves, as demonstrated by them flying Canberra back home via charter planes from Bankstown airport because it was only five days until the Raiders had to be back at Parramatta Stadium playing the Eels.
While five-day turnarounds have been a thing since the advent of Friday night games, since Monday night – and now Thursday night – footy began they are almost unavoidable.
So just how many five-day turnarounds are there? To the end of Round 20, which is as far as the NRL has posted so far, there are 288 instances of a side taking the field for a game (there are 144 matches). Of those 288 instances 44 involve five-day turnarounds. That is 15 per cent of the time.
That breaks down as follows:
• 14 matches with both competing sides coming off a five-day break; and
• 16 matches with a team on a five-day turnaround playing a team without one.
So in 28 instances, the teams are playing other sides who are also coming off shorter preparation. That actually seems like the people at NRL HQ have done a pretty good job in minimising the number of five-day turnarounds, if in only 16 instances out of 288 (5.5%) does one side play a better-rested side.
However, that doesn’t mean it has been fairly distributed. Just look at this:
Five-day turnarounds by club
| Four | Three | Two | One | None |
| Sea Eagles Wests Tigers |
Roosters Rabbitohs |
Dragons Raiders Bulldogs Panthers Storm Knights |
Sharks Cowboys Eels Broncos |
Titans Warriors |
Further, while a short turnaround does have an impact, a crucial factor is if you add genuine travel to the mix.
Although Sea Eagles fans might not agree, genuine travel that effects a player’s conditioning does not include travelling from Brookvale to Cronulla or Penrith. Genuine travel is to or from New Zealand, Melbourne, Townsville, Brisbane, Perth, the Gold Coast or Canberra.
There have been five instances so far of a team with a five-day turnaround playing away from home that involve genuine travel. In all cases they have lost, even in the two instances where they have been playing sides with a five-day turn around themselves.
• Round 3: Roosters lost to the Cowboys. North Queensland were coming off a five-day break with no travel. The Chooks didn’t score a point.
• Round 3: Wests Tigers lost to the Titans. Gold Coast coming off six-day break with no travel. The Wests Tigers ran out of puff and were outscored 24-8 in the second half.
• Round 6: Dragons lost to the Broncos. Brisbane coming off six-day break with no travel. The Dragons didn’t bother the scorer.
• Round 6: Raiders lost to the Eels. Parramatta coming off a six-day break with no travel. Canberra looked lethargic and were blown off the park.
• Round 5: Knights lost to the Storm. Melbourne, coming off a five-day break with no travel, overran Newcastle in the last 20 minutes.
There are three more instances to come of sides having to deal with a genuine away match on a five-day turnaround this season:
• Round 7: Bulldogs versus Warriors
• Round 20: Panthers versus Broncos
• Round 20: Storm versus Roosters
Far be it from me to suggest that you put a three-leg multi on the Warriors, Broncos and Roosters, but I’ve heard far worse ideas.
So are the five-day turnarounds with genuine travel distributed evenly among the clubs?
Five-day turnarounds with genuine travel by club
| Two | One | None |
| Knights | Tigers Roosters Dragons Bulldogs Panthers Storm Raiders |
Warriors Eels Titans Cowboys Sea Eagles Rabbitohs Sharks Broncos |
No, they aren’t.
The side that came last in 2015 has been burdened with two almost certain losses – one of which has already been realised. Meanwhile, last year’s grand finalists don’t have one between them.
So if there are distinct losers, are there winners from the five-day turnaround scenario?
Clubs playing teams with five day turnarounds
*Figures in parenthesis ( ) = teams played with genuine travel on top of five-day turnaround
| Five | Four | Three | Two | one | none |
| Roosters (1) | Rabbitohs (0) | Storm (1) | Broncos (2) Bulldogs (0) Cowboys (1) Eels (1) Wests Tigers (0) |
Raiders (0) Sharks (0) Titans (1) Sea Eagles (0) Knights (0) Warriors (1) |
Panthers Dragons |
It seems the Roosters and the Rabbitohs have done pretty well out of this. However, between them they only play one five-day turnaround team with genuine travel. Further, in four of those nine instances both the Sydney sides also have five-day turnarounds themselves.
Of the eight instances this season of sides playing teams on a five-day turnaround with genuine travel, the Brisbane Broncos are the opponent 25 per cent of the time. Further, when they poleaxed the Dragons last Thursday, it was the Red V’s second game on the road in 11 days.
One of the best ways for the NRL to avoid five-day turnarounds would be to evenly distribute the days on which each side plays. So does that happen?
| Team | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Night/day |
| Brisbane | 3 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16/2 |
| Canberra | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 9/9 |
| Bulldogs | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13/5 |
| Sharks | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 10/8 |
| Titans | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 11/6 |
| Sea Eagles | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 16/2 |
| Storm | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 12/6 |
| Knights | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 7/11 |
| Cowboys | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 17/1 |
| Eels | 2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14/4 |
| Panthers | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 8/10 |
| Rabbitohs | 3 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14/4 |
| Dragons | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 9/9 |
| Roosters | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 11/7 |
| Warriors | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 8/11 |
| Wests Tigers | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 10/8 |
| Even distribution | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11.5/6.5 |
No, not at all.
As you can see, the Panthers are the only club that gets close to what an even distribution of games would look like.
The NRL try to keep the Warriors from having five-day turnarounds by shoving 60 per cent of their games on Saturdays. We should note that the Warriors have three games which involve six-day breaks with travel, arguably the equivalent of a five-day travel for other teams (the Cowboys could possibly argue this too).
Before you freak out about the Broncos and Rabbitohs having a monopoly on the Thursday and Friday night spots, remember that they get those spots because they bring in the ratings. Channel Nine and Foxtel pay millions of dollars for those eyeballs, so we’ve got to suck that imbalance up.
However, the Broncos do seem to have really got the best deal from the NRL draw up to the end of Round 20:
• They play only one game with a five-day turnaround, against an opposition with almost the same handicap as well as having had to travel
• They do not have a five-day turnaround that involves genuine travel
• They play two sides that have five-day turnarounds, with both of them also dealing with genuine travel, and
• They play virtually all of their games at night so they can get in a good rhythm
No one gets it as good. It couldn’t have been much better if Wayne Bennett himself had drawn it up!
3 Hats
Guest
Manchester to Perpignan by air is about 6 hours and 40 minutes OR up to 9 hours depending on the day of travel, with the 2 connections at London and Paris. There are NO direct flights. Manchester to London is 1 hr London to Paris is 1 hr 15 mins Paris to Perpignan is 1 hr 25 mins. Sydney to Townsville is 2hrs and 45 mins Direct OR 4hrs 05 mins via Brisbane.
Casper
Guest
Have you factored in the number of games clubs will be impacted by representative player loss throughout the season? Broncos have consistently had players back up on 2 day turnaround after origin and tests, generally with the impact only matched by the Storm. Cowboys appear to be headed down that path now after their improved form. Origin mentally fatigues players more than 5 day turnarounds and it has hampered the Broncos since they came into the competition. McGuire, Gillette, Thaiday, Parker, Blair and Glenn are likely to front up in rep games, almost the entire pack. Cowboys will lose Scott, Tamou, Taumololo & maybe Cooper. Easy targets, the Broncos. If the NRL doesn't want them on most Friday nights like every whinging new south Welshman, let those clubs take a cut in their share of revenue from FTA rights, bet they'd blow up about that. The extra money comes from increases ratings and an even share of Friday night games would reduce the value of the product. The Cowboys get the rough end of the pineapple having to travel to Sydney for half their games, if travel is so bad why do the bunnies take a home game to Perth and the Bulldogs go to NZ? Answer, MONEY.
LMM
Guest
Broncos and Bunnies get more free to air because they rate well. How is any other team supposed to change that when they don't get a chance? Give all the families that can't afford Foxtel more Shaun Johnson, Blake Austin, Bryce Cartwright, James Tedesco and Tom Trbojevic and things will change. So many kids are being raised to believe that these big rating teams are the best teams. Spread it evenly and let people decide for themselves.
Tim Gore
Expert
Can you name such a side?
Tim Gore
Expert
Steven, I've read both your comments numerous times just to check there was no ambiguity or nuance I missed. You said: 1. I'm a whinger (noted. There is certainly an argument for that) 2. That the draw is what it is because of economic realities. (to a certain extent yes, but only for the lucrative Thursday and Friday games that only constitute 22% of the games. The other 78% are much of a muchness in value. I clearly - both above and in the article - acknowledge that the Rabbitohs and Broncos on Friday nights were an economic reality. However, not all aspects of the draw are subject to that hard economic line. The draw can be distributed far more evenly without risking Channel nines bottom line and avoid most five day turnarounds. So I refute your "It is what it is" call with those facts) 3. there is no complexity about this. (Steve, have you ever created a competition draw? I have. It is hard, even without commercial interests and travel to be considered. There is masses of complexity about this. However, there can be far more fairness) 4. you say true equity can only be achieved by making all sides play each other twice (agreed, home and away) and with all games at the same time each week (disagree. you can distribute the slots so everyone gets the same amount of each slots. And to suggest that is, in my 'expert' opinion, reminiscent of people who once declared the world to be flat. I've made clear above what an even and fair distribution would look like 1 Thursday night, 4 Friday night, 7 Saturday, 4 sunday and 3 Monday for each side. Now, if we add home and away (which we could if we did away with international and city country break, started two weeks earlier, finished a week later and stopped state of origin) that equation would change. But in the interim, and assuming that they want Origin to continue, fairness would be found in that breakdown.) Your second comment says that I didn't understand your first. I assure you that I, and Graham, did and hopefully this comment clears that up. Forgive us if we think it can be fairer, think that some sides get heaps more than others and that we aren't partial to being called whingers - even if there is a valid argument to support the allegation.
Lord Funkington
Guest
Mr Gore why do you keep publishing articles celebrating the Broncos? every week you write something pointing out how good they are, whether it's about recruiting, administration, on-field tactics or their fixturing abilities. Why don't you look at someone else? Maybe point out where they are doing well like you do for the Broncos every week?
steve
Guest
Sorry tim...graham's comment missed the point of what i was saying so well done to you too for not reading it!! Let's just leave it to your judgement to identify when the draw is even enough then...you're the roar 'expert' after all...and clearly anyone with a different view must also believe the earth is flat (whatever that means in this context).
steve
Guest
Sorry, graham. Did you read my comment? Not sure what you're getting at here a I agree that the draw is inequitable...but it's the reality of things. But hey, you and tim maintain the broncos conspiracy rage all you want!
scott
Guest
Fairfax also crunched some data on this, every round from 2014 throught to the end of March 2016. They didn't incude travel though which is a real shame. For the record the most affected were the Tigers with 11, Broncos were 7th or 8th or so with 6, and perennial hard-done-bys the Raiders weren't even included as they had 0. Nobody has done 5 years including travel unfortunately. I'd do it in some free time but no idea where to find a nice clean data source. Any ideas Tim? Where'd you get your source data, or is that proprietary info?
Tim Gore
Expert
Thanks Dad! you coming over to watch the footy tonight?
Tim Gore
Expert
Mr Keefe, 1. It is the sample size we have so far. 2. Do you have any idea how long it takes to do one season? five makes me tremble with fear. 3. Roosters and Dragons both made the finals last year. Perhaps they would have done better without the massive disadvantage? You are using the vitally flawed "they woulda lost anyway" argument. So they aren't as good, they are most probably going to lose so it doesn't matter if we make it harder for them. A really crap argument. Give me a level playing field and we'll get real results. 3. totally agree with your last point. you will note that the NRL does have the four Sydney clubs dealing with the most 5 day turnarounds. of the 30 5 day turnarounds 24 are by Sydney (and Newcastle) based clubs. 6 of those (25%) involve genuine travel. That's all but two of them - Canberra and Melbourne having the other two. so to a large extent they've got that right.
Tim Gore
Expert
What Graham said Steven. The only people who happily say "the draw is what it is" are a) those who are benefitting or b) those who realize they have to get on with it no matter how unfair it is. Secondly, I point out the very same thing about maximizing TV revenue in my article and defend it. I defend the Broncos (and Rabbitohs) on Friday nights as an economic reality. Thirdly, you don't have to go all flat earth and put them all on the same day, just share them more evenly.
Tim Gore
Expert
I think you are both on the same side. I think Kevin is saying that it is a part of the larger conspiracy. Issue is that Conspiracy is seen as a dirty word - even if they are sometimes proven true! Not that this one has of course.
Graham
Guest
Your right Steve, the draw is what it is, and currently the Broncos have a massive advantage. That is what the article is all about.
Graham
Guest
No conspiracy if it's facts. You fail so try again!
Graham
Guest
Comments from the SuperCoach!
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
Whilst I agree that five day turnarounds need to be eliminated the five examples of teams that lost off a five day turnaround with travel is really not a big enough sample size. The Roosters and Dragons could have had 10 day turnarounds and the best medical staff in the world and they still wouldn't have got close to the Cowboys or the Broncos. I'd be interested to see what five day turnarounds with travel look like over say the last 5 years. Whilst more can be done to make the draw even, the reality is in a national competition it will never be even. Most Sydney teams spend 18 of the 24 weeks in Sydney whilst the Warriors & Cowboys in particular have a 2 - 3 hour flight minimum every second week. For example Parramatta as of round 7 have not left Sydney yet. Other than going to Nth QLD in round 8 they won't leave Sydney again until the 23rd of July when they go to the Gold Coast in round 20. Surely that has to be a huge preparation advantage. Yet by the end of round 7 the Dragons will have travelled to Melbourne, Townsville, Brisbane and the Gold Coast. And then in round 9 they go to Auckland. There are so many factors in the draw and I don't think 5 day turnarounds by themselves are the biggest factor. Having a day of travel either side of games is a huge factor that out of Sydney teams have to deal with and so they should actually get the best of the turn arounds to compensate for that.
steve
Guest
Come on tim...this is just a whinge cloaked in an arguement of equity. The draw is what it is and people live in fantasy land if they think its not managed to attempt to maximise tv revenue. There is no complexity about this to 'stay with you' about. If you want true equity in the draw then everyone has to play each team twice in a season and all games would need to be played at the same time each week.
Tim Gore
Expert
Or - stay with me here - distribute the matches evenly, and through that limit the amount of 5 day turnarounds, and then distribute the 5 day turnarounds evenly. No need for anyone to be a plumber OR to have to swallow blatant inequity.
Tim Gore
Expert
Next week. I'll do it next week. It'll be a good part of next week's piece "Corey Parker is Lucifer."