Nine rounds of the Super Rugby season are done for 2016, meaning that even with the June International window approaching, we’re just over halfway through the competition.
And if there’s one thing that has become clear over this weekend just gone and the last few weeks before that, it’s that it is looking increasingly unlikely that two Australian teams will feature in the expanded eight-team finals series.
One team is assured, obviously, by virtue of the conference system, and right at this point in time, we can be very thankful for it. The Melbourne Rebels are now the leading Australian team and sit fourth among the conference leaders, but have the eighth-best record overall.
Are the Rebels the best team in Australia currently?
It’s easily debatable, though the same can and should also be asked of the Brumbies, and now the Waratahs, whose season has had a sudden injection of life thanks to the Brumbies’ loss to the Crusaders on Sunday. And such is the debate around the leading Australian team currently, that the ‘who’s best?’ question is probably more rhetorical than anything.
Beyond working out who is or isn’t the best Australian team, there’s a whole other debate around whether or not the leading Australian team is actually a genuine title contender. After nine rounds of decent form interspersed with some fairly ordinary performances, I think that question is significantly easier to answer. It’s an emphatic ‘no’ right at this point in time.
And the simple reason why the answer is so emphatic is that only way to adequately describe the overall Australian performances in 2016 is to say that they’ve been consistently inconsistent.
It’s not quite rocks or diamonds for the Rebels, Brumbies and Waratahs, but their respective best and worst performances do have an unhealthy distance between them. And in this environment, no genuine title contender can afford that. The three other conference leaders don’t have that about them currently, and you can throw the Brumbies’ latest conquerors, the Crusaders in that pot, too.
Until the Australian trio can eradicate the inconsistency from their game, they don’t deserve to be spoken of in the same terms as the teams who are seriously lighting the competition up as we now commence the downhill run to the playoffs.
The Rebels’ ascendancy to the top of the conference is not entirely undeserved, but their lofty table position is somewhat flattering in that they’ve not beaten any of the top ten teams. They’ve only played three of them, for one thing, with the narrowest of the three defeats their 20-point loss to the Bulls at Loftus in Round 2.
The Highlanders touched them up by 24 in Round 5, and the Hurricanes by 25 in Melbourne in Round 8, a game that many agreed at the time was a game both teams had to win in order to justify the growing discussion around them. The Rebels have followed that with a very good win on Friday night against the Cheetahs, but the Hurricanes followed up by very-nearly toppling the competition favourites, the Chiefs. If the Rebels and Hurricanes were on an even footing ten or so days ago, there’s a growing gulf between them now.
There was a lot to like about the Rebels win on Friday not, though, and Tony McGahan is reaching a situation where he faces some tough calls at the selection table. Does Mitch Inman come straight back into the side when fit again, for instance? Is Reece Hodge’s form so irresistible that you just write his name on the team sheet first and worry about what jersey he wears later?
The next two weeks will give us a much better indication of where the Rebels really sit, away to the Blues this weekend coming, and then an Australian conference showdown with the Brumbies in Melbourne the following weekend. Win both those games, and attitudes about the Rebels may be forced into change.
The Brumbies find themselves in a real pickle. Since they won their first three games of the season reasonably handsomely, they’re gone loss-win-loss-bye-win-loss. The two most recent losses have been new record losing margins at Canberra Stadium.
The players are saying and Stephen Larkham is saying all the right things publically, that the ongoing ‘Bold and the Brumbies’ soap opera is not having any effect on the team whatsoever. They have to say that.
Behind closed doors, I hope Larkham and Stephen Moore have had or soon get the chance to sit CEO Michael Jones and chairman Robert Kennedy down and tell them exactly what the team thinks of this debacle, and how their collective carrying on like dickheads is damaging the club.
I hope they tell them in so uncertain terms that the paint peels off the wall; knowing the two of them somewhat, that probably won’t happen. But Jones and Kennedy need to be told, and I hope it happens.
Even if the players don’t read the paper, they’re on social media. Even if they don’t know what’s going on, they know what’s on. Scott Fardy is on the board; Moore was until the start of last season. Even if the players individually are not at that same level of understanding of the situation, they would know this: the Brumbies as a club is in the middle of a ridiculous crisis of their own making.
The team might be isolated from the actual issues at hand, but everything that’s going on is there all around them. Even if by osmosis, the whole fiasco has to have some degree of effect.
But that’s not to give the Brumbies an excuse, because they were disappointing on Sunday and all questions being asked of them currently are deserved. They couldn’t rely on the set piece as a platform against the Crusaders, and for one of the better defensive teams in the competition, they missed far too many tackles. They knew the Crusaders would come at them with a big offload game, yet at times their defence seemed flat. They knew the Crusaders wouldn’t commit numbers to the ruck, yet they still tried to beat defenders one on one.
I still maintain that 2016 is the Brumbies best and last opportunity to win a Super Rugby title for the next five years, probably, but right now, that prospect looks a long way off.
Are the Waratahs waking for their slumber? I don’t know about that. I’m not really sure whether their win over the Force told us more about the Tahs, or the Force. The Waratahs made 17 clean breaks, yet still conceded 15 turnovers. In fact, if you didn’t look at the scoreline and just saw the stats, you might be excused for concluding the teams were pretty equal.
Yet because of the Brumbies’ loss, the Waratahs’ season is certainly not over as might have been thought last week. With a game in hand over both the Rebels and the Brumbies, the Waratahs are definitely within reach of the Australian conference again. With only five points between them and the Rebels, the only table they need to focus on now is the Australian one.
Their attack looks to be in good shape; they are certainly creating the chances. But their breakdown presence needs work and will need to improve to challenge any of the ten teams above them on the table.
The next five weeks will define their season: away to the Stormers, before returning home to play the Cheetahs and Bulls, followed by the Crusaders away and the Chiefs back in Sydney, all before the June break. They probably need to win all five games, truly, to be properly seen as contenders again. And any more than two losses would almost certainly be curtains. They’ll need to be better than six and six going into June.
But the biggest issue for the Tahs is exactly the same issue as with the Rebels and Brumbies. They’re all only OK when they should be much better, and they’re all disappointing when they really need to be much better.
The time is rapidly running out for the Australian sides. There can be no more ‘in’ prefix when talking about their consistency. Inconsistent teams don’t win games, never mind titles.
Fox Saker
Guest
Agreed Brett, and I think there will be some surprises from Cheika with players from the Reds and Force in the mix. Also with Rebels playing so well - though they do have some overseas players in great form like Adam Thompson who has made huge difference to their go forward ball, defense and lineout options - it is hard not to see three of four players get shot from that side either. I mean on current form you wouldn't make your entire tight five from the Tahs and Brumbies but he may do so for continuity and loyalty but I think that is a bit narrow in the thinking if Cheika does, and I don't think he will. He also has some Reds forwards to consider The Reds scrum and lineout are performing better than the Tahs or Brumbies on average despite their record. Sadly, their backs, before the coach change, sometimes have looked a bit pedestrian. Also, to entice Carmichael Hunt to crossover - and for goodness sake let's not play let's pretend as we all know how the transfer game is played - baring rubbish form he would have just about been given a golden carrot into the Wallabies squad despite the predictable PR speeches to the contrary And had he not been partying so hard shall we say, he would have probably been picked long before now, at the very least in the wider training squad. I don't think he has been consistent enough just yet anyway, to get the jersey even though at last he is showing some form, but my bet is now the dust has settled on his white line fever he will be picked or he will return to league.
Suzy Poison
Guest
CUW I am not saying England are the number one team in the world. But I think the pack will trouble Oz. Look Australia at home must be favourites to win. 2:1 sounds about right. England while plodding along in the right direction did beat Scotland at Murrayfield. Not always that easy. If you recall in the World Cup, a reffing blunder cost Scotland. Australia came very very close to losing that game. Some say Australia did not actually win that game. England have one five in row, not to be sneezed at.
Homer Gain
Guest
I'm guessing this from a sample of two cases, almost certainly involving three consecutive tests away in South Africa and New Zealand. Out of interest, have Australia won a three test series in such circumstances?
Mad Dutchman
Guest
Just to pick up on the even stats between the Tahs and Force comment a little... My immediate reaction was that's not possible, but you are right they are fairly even. Then I remembered the Tahs vs the Brums from the week before. It was not an even thing, the Tahs pretty much dominated every statistic (mostly positive except turnovers conceded...). The most important set of numbers (the final score) out of that game was sadly against the Tahs though. This all goes to show the stats only paint the picture to a point - there is no stat for clever play, running good support lines, creating doubt in the defence,... Also agree that we are in some trouble in the Aus conference: Rebs - still young, still improving - better next year. Brums - started like a house on fire, now looking tired and Tomane their one player in attacking form is now injured! Tahs - too many young players to perform consistently this year - better next season. One on one D very disappointing with Hooper and Phipps having to do a mountain of mop-up defence.
Suzy Poison
Guest
Well Wales are due for a win. The get closer every game. We will see. I can't wait for this Bok team as it will truly represent. Alistair Coetzee has to pick 50% players of colour and 40% black africans in his squad according transformation laws. But with talent currently available, this should not present a problem. This is the team I think we might see. 15. Cheslin Kolbe 14. Seobela Senatla 13. Lional Mapoe 12. Damian De Allende 11. Sergeal Pietersen 10. Elton Jantjies. 9. Faf De Klerk 8. Duane Vermeulen 7. Siya Kolisi 6. Frans Louw 5. Pieter Steph Du Toit 4. Etzebeth 3. Frans Malherbe 2. Adrian Strauss 1. Beast (Captain) Bench: 1. Vincent Koch 2. Scarra Ntubeni 3. Trevor Nyakane 4. Lood De jager 5. Sikhumbuzo Notshe 6. Rudy Paige 7. Jess Kriel 8. Willie Le Roux I think this is an exciting ball in hand type of backline and we will still have some game breakers off the bench.
Suzy Poison
Guest
Cheers Akari. Jean was in top form that game. Worth noting he was playing 13. The most difficult position to defend, and he often swopped around a lot. Often he played 12 as well. Kuridrani will be marking Tuilagi and he is big enough to contain him, cos Tuilagi plays 13. However Tuilagi is most dangerous running back in off a short ball at the 10-12 channel. Foley and Toomua will have their hands full no doubt. I would definately not start will Beale for that reason.
CUW
Guest
even the Blues managed to draw with the Reds. maybe they have lady luck on their side :)
CUW
Guest
it seems Tomane may be gone for the season. problem for brumbies it seems is, their bench seems thin. unable to find adequate replacements for guys like Vaea , Pocock Mogg and now Tomane .....
CUW
Guest
@ Suzy Poison : maybe u did not watch 6N? England were not much better from the team that went out early in RWC. however , they had a few things going for them in 6N. for starters they got the weaker teams away from home, and then played the stronger teams last at home. beat scots at murrayfield 15:9 beat italy in italy 40:9 beat ireland at twickers 21:10 beat wales at twickers 25:21 beat france in france 31:21 their performances are not described in the scoresheets of the 6N trophy. but england were far from convincing. imo , auzzy will win this one 2:1 - the scoreline reflects my fear that Cheika will revert to his 677 3rd row and get molested by the english pack. but the plus for auzzy is that on hard grounds with more back play , england will struggle to match it over a 3 week period.
Old Bugger
Guest
Absolutely Akari. I haven't seen a prop do that for quite sometime. Well done BA......do you think Cheiks will give him a run??? He looks pretty fit and champion at the bit, for more test footy.
Old Bugger
Guest
Exactly BBA - the Saders did have winning records but unfortunately, not with TB at the helm. My commentary was not a reflection of how other teams performed and whether they were more motivated or played better rugby. It was a commentary about TB and his ability to take the Saders all the way.....he didn't even with the player roster he had, the experience he had as a coach and last but not least, the experience he had as a former player who had lead his team to win titles. He has one last opportunity this season to finally win an SR accolade. If he fails, then his legacy will be everything bar winning, the SR competition. You are welcome to suggesting unfair criticism but it is reality, in the end.
CUW
Guest
@ Suzy Poison i am not sure from which year that vid is , but Tuilagi has never been good after the constant leg injuries. in case u did not see , Racing showed the world how to shut him down and basically rubbed Cockers' face in the mud after he promised Dan carter a Tuilagi massage well DC ended the match with 14 tackles at 10 and Tuilagi (according to stats on telly ) had made 13 meters off 7 runs around 65th minute. now i hear , he may be carring a recurrence of the knee injury.
CUW
Guest
@ Lostintokyo : " But Super Rugby is the toughest comp on earth ..." am sure Euro championship will have a thing or two to say about that. :D
CUW
Guest
except for crusaders on curent form - other two are possibilities ; something u would not have said a couple of weeks ago :D
CUW
Guest
@ Browny : and that running style may be his undoing , against better defensive teams , imo. he looks down and runs straight - as far as i saw , he had no idea of any defenders from the sides. the better NZ and SA teams will have cover defenders coming from the sides. am sure u will remember how dan carter got blindsided by bdp. to me , it seems he trusts his speed to run to the line , no matter hell or high water. now if u look at a guy like Nonu , who is much bigger , despite being in the clear , always looks around to see if he has oncoming traffic and where the support runners are. Hodge needs to develop that aspect, especially as a center. else he may become like Kerevi, who almost always breaks the line but then the movement also breaks down becoz of not making correct decisions. to the credit of Hodge , he has been shifted around , i think from back to wing to center in the space of like 5 games. still he has acclimatized well , despite obvios mistakes. hopefully he does not become thought of like a Colin Slade , where coaches think he can play anywhere from 9 - 15.
Harry Jones
Expert
Excellent article, Brett. The Brumbies' stretch schedule is a lot nicer than the Rebels' and Tahs,' but the Canberra boys appear to have lost some mojo
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
WOW Brett, ... "Don’t forget, England have never played a three-Test series against Australia, and on the rare occasion they’ve played a three-Test series against anyone, they’re yet to win a series" ... I never knew that! Interesting, thanks....
CUW
Guest
@ Hugo : the english pack is good , suddenly , only becoz Jones has chosen the guys who can play according to his script. the limited changes he made to the Lancaster's squad suddenly made them the best lot in NH. that does not mean they are way better than Auzzy or another team. I for one think auzzy will take the series 2:1 , if they can get the selection balance correct. imo , the 677 third row will not work against england. they will have too much power at set pieces and mauls. also engaging in forward play too much will play into england's hands. auzzy shud look at fast back play and also a territory game that NZ have mastered agaisnt the NH teams.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
The Brumbies Title credentials took a huge hit after Sunday. In fact they may not even make the semi's. For such a talented squad they have been disappointing thus far. The Rebels are a gritty team, a semi appearance would be a huge achievement. The Tahs need to start stringing more good performances to convince even there most ardent supporters. ( I'm one of those ). The Kiwi sides are so far ahead of everyone else by the length of the straight.
Mick Harrold
Roar Rookie
You say consistency is lacking in Australia, but forgot to mention the Reds and Force. I would argue that the Force are the most consistent team in Super rugby over the last 7 years. They always field a team of mostly no namers and rejects from other clubs. They usually have a decent, but second rate coach. They are always guaranteed to try hard for the full 80 minutes. They often run a game close, even against the big boys, but they end up losing (often by small margins). They never threaten to be title contenders. You want consistency, what more could you want. No team in Super Rugby is that consistent over such a long time! Not the kind of consistency you are looking for though :) Don't get me wound up about the Reds. What a waste that is. Actually, throw the Tahs in that basket this year. What a waste of talent. I would prefer to be a Force supporter than a Reds or Tahs supporter right now. At least they try and I can be proud of that! The Reds and Tahs are just a waste of talent. When are we going to realise that the problem isn't players or playing depth, it is coaching that is the biggest problem. Let's not forget that the SA teams are useless too. It's just they don't have to play the Kiwis as much that makes them look ok now. The SA teams are every bit as bad as our teams right now but the spotlight isn't on them. The Kiwi's beat us because they are coached better. The Kiwis have changed the gameplan. Defend well and wait for errors and then attack and offload. The Aus and SA teams are playing catch up. A clinical team with a good gameplan will deny the Kiwi teams the chance to attack. Right now we lack the clinical credentials and our gameplan gives the ball to the Kiwis. i.e. Brumbies Vs Highlanders. Don't kick it just out when going for touch. Put it well out so they can't get a quick throw in. The Aussie teams will get better this season. They can't get worse. The Kiwis have developed the game further and good for them. But as the season goes on, we will adapt. We won't win the comp though. However, at national level, it is a different beast. Skill levels are high and game plans are better thought out. Don't write of the Wallabies yet. I bet Cheika is watching and learning right now. The Saffas will also bring their own game plan and it will be different from ours and it may disrupt the Kiwis yet. I kind of feel like we both won't catch up fast enough and that the Argies are in for a very tough year as they don't have the resources to throw at the development of their players like the Aus and SA teams do. One last note on coaching and why the Kiwis are so good at it. SA, England and France have massive playing numbers and money to burn. SA is a match for Aus over the last 20 years, but nothing more despite a massive difference in both player numbers and the fact it is a top sprot in SA. As for the French and England. Bah! But why? On numbers alone, England should win every world cup with France and SA fighting it out for second. Aus, NZ and Japan should fight it out for 3rd best nation. But that isn't what happens. The Kiwis lead the game because they think more and innovate. Aus punches above our weight for the same reason. It just isn't a sport played here in any significant numbers and all the best athletes and money go elsewhere. The answer is coaching. And not just at the highest level. It is too late by then. Kiwi players join Super sides ready to go with skills to burn. They learn it in the NPC. Our players don't have that. It is similar in SA, but for different reasons. They have the Currie cup, but but that is the problem. By the time their players make the big time, they are already indoctrinated into playing rugby the SA way and it is hard to change that mindset. My favourite SA team is the Cheetahs. They may be hopeless, but at least they try to do something different. The rest of SA still thinks it is 2007.