The fact New Zealand is now officially a joint member of a conference with Australia means it’s easier to closely compare what is on offer in each country.
This year is a tough year to watch Australian teams in Super Rugby. The best team on this side of the ditch is the Brumbies. They are now second in the group to the Rebels, but going by the way the Australian derby matches have played out, those positions should flip before the season ends.
The Rebels would currently be the lone Australian side to qualify for the finals if the season ended. They have a minus nine-point differential. After eight rounds, the best Aussie team has allowed more points than they’ve scored. Don’t think even Stephen Bradbury would be proud of the way anyone is setting themselves up for a finals tilt.
And if an Australian team wins from here, it would take a Bradbury-esque run. Four teams from the New Zealand group have more competition points than any Australian team, and that isn’t a distortion of the early part of the draw or any other random outcome. On Sunday afternoon, the Crusaders – arguably the third or fourth best Kiwi team, but that might change as they keep improving – absolutely toweled up the Brumbies, the top team here.
It wasn’t even as close as the score indicated. The Crusaders had a stronger maul, a better scrum as the match wore on, better tactical kicking (despite a few poor ones from Israel Dagg), better offloading, better intensity and seemed to play with clear minds.
Brett McKay wrote yesterday that consistency was the main problem. I’m now of the opinion their good games just aren’t good enough to beat the best. Consistency is an issue, but it isn’t enough to lift them to a point where challenging the New Zealand teams is possible.
The top Australian teams at this point are the Brumbies, Rebels and Waratahs (probably in that order). Let’s take a peek at their best wins so far, matches where they dominated and pulled away on the scoreboard.
Best wins for the Brumbies were against the Hurricanes, Waratahs and Force.
Best wins for the Waratahs were against the Reds and Force.
Best wins for the Rebels were against the Sunwolves and the Cheetahs.
Out of all their dominant wins, only one came against a New Zealand team – the Brumbies’ lopsided result against the Hurricanes – and that was in Round 1, where blips can happen as a team blows out the final rust.
The Brumbies are, for the most part, doing the business in derbies. That’s the strength of their push to a qualifying spot atop the Australian conference. But big loses against the Chiefs and Crusaders seem to show they’re behind the eight-ball when it comes to strength against the group.
A close loss to the Highlanders is the Waratahs only encounter with a cross-group conference team so far. The Highlanders were pushed but not broken in that match. There will be more New Zealand Tests for the Waratahs, and many will be hopeful after the flogging they gave the Force.
But how likely is it a team that lost twice to the Brumbies and once to the Rebels already, on top of a squeak of a win against the Reds, is going to run the slate against the Crusaders, Chiefs and Hurricanes while they duke it out for a finals spot?
In their two opportunities against Kiwi opponents the Rebels lost handily against the Hurricanes and Highlanders, despite putting up a fight. The Rebels face off against the contending Chiefs and Crusaders later in the season.
The evidence suggests the New Zealand teams are just plain better than the Australian ones, rather than consistency being the problem. The Waratahs could play as well as they did against the lowly Force every week but keep losing by four to the Highlanders.
Would playing with the kind of professionalism and efficiency the Brumbies displayed in handling the Waratahs twice and Hurricanes in Round 1 produce the goods against other Kiwi teams? I’d argue the Crusaders just showed them they are now more efficient and execute their plans with more efficiency.
Can the relentless effort the Rebels showed to get wins against the Sunwolves, Cheetahs and Waratahs grind a Kiwi team to dust? I’d argue the Chiefs offer a consistent effort with a much higher skill level that the Rebels just can’t match, even if they do bring it.
All four top New Zealand teams are able to find favourable field position and find a grove in their own game plans better than any Australian team can. These are the basics at this level, and they’re just better at them.
On top of that, on the evidence in games so far, the New Zealand teams are winning in two other significant ways: offloads and physicality.
New Zealand has continued the All Blacks strategy of tiring teams, working them over and making them make more tackles by emphasising the offload at Super Rugby level. The Crusaders hammered that point home against the Brumbies on the weekend, but every team does it.
Forward are playing for the offload, and the smaller runners are lining up to make them count, in the manner of good rugby league full backs. Keeping the ball alive stresses the defence, making them move as far as they would to stop two phases in order to contain just one.
Usually, the teams that make Australian teams worry about physicality are from South Africa. And while there are some huge humans destroying people in that group, the New Zealand conference has been doing the same this year.
While they aren’t always bigger and using sheer force, the New Zealand forward are winning in contact and being more accurate at the break down. They are creating space for attack like the Waratahs did in 2014. There is room around the ruck because they push tacklers backwards and don’t get bogged down defending their ball as often as Australian teams do.
Winning the physical battle gives a rugby team more options and means kicking less possession away because three and four metres are being made even on the least successful phases – enough to keep things moving in the right direction.
Regardless of the style or plans each of the Brumbies, Rebels and Waratahs decide to employ from here on out, they must start winning more physical battles and finding creases by using the offload. If they don’t, the second half of the season is going to be a long one with replays of the Kiwi wins we’ve already seen in the Australasian group.
moaman
Roar Guru
ZERO GAIN I believe you are correct.I would add to that there is currently around 1,000,000 kiwis living abroad as we speak.I imagine some or many of them will return to their roots at some point as international living becomes less desirable and other pressures are brought to bear. I wonder if the estimated 60,000 australians living here will up-sticks at some point too?
Zero Gain
Guest
There are about 1200 more Kiwis going from Aust to NZ than vice versa at the moment, per year. Considering 40,000 more Kiwis moved to Australia than home in 2012 alone, the current 'reversal' will take decades to make much difference. But yes, the net migration is slightly in favour of NZ at the moment, from Australia, whilst NZs net migration overall is a record 65000 or so last year. All of these figures are easily verifiable.
woodart
Guest
might be good to play and the players are fit, but it still looks like what it started out to be, ,a scrap between two irish villages , with not much structure(to rugby or league eyes)
richard
Guest
Fox,in the 1984-86 era,the WB pack easily held its own v the ABs.That is what I am referring to.We generally do dominate,but their are periods when Australia match us up fro -the other period being between 1998-2002. Agreed Wal.,going into the 1987 RWC,NZ were behind Australia,and possibly France ( based on their last result).To counter this,NZ went for a pack that was both mobile and strong at set piece.This was revolutionary at the time and gave the ABs a decisive edge. PS Garrick Morgan wasn't playing for the WBs at that time,he came later.
Wal
Roar Guru
I think Richard is referring to the 87 team, who whilst one of the best forward packs NZ has ever produced they were very much a hit and run type pack. The French absolutely monstered them in 86 and That generation of Aussie Pack included Topo Rodrigez, Steve Tuynman, Steve Cutler,Garrick Morgan were all bigger and stronger than their Kiwi counter-parts. ,
avsfan
Guest
Good point, but Rennie turned the Chiefs from also rans into champions in one season. Ironically, Ian Foster, who served up years of mediocrity at the Chiefs, turns out to play and integral role in an all conquering AB side. Also, Boyd took the Canes to the final his first year, after years of mediocrity with other coaches.
avsfan
Guest
This "buy-in" has been in existence long before Hansen came on the scene. It is one of the advantages / effects of the Kiwi centralized system. The directive on how the AB coaches want the ABs to play filters down to SR coaches, to ITM, to club level. It is why the introduction of new ABs tends to go so seamlessly - they are used to playing a certain way long before they get the call up.
Fox
Guest
I don't think NZ has ever thought they can't out-muscle an Australian tight five...A tight five who year after year has been hammered for their feeble scrumaging and lack of physicality in open play Think you might have had the one eye patch on their mate
Fox Saker
Guest
So "Australia" will be better than the All Blacks because eventually they will have side full of New Zealand players? Says nothing about Australia rugby and its players and only reinforces New Zealanders dominance in the a game So it will be the All Blacks in drag....Green and gold
Markus
Guest
You're definitely right that none of the Aus teams seemed prepared for this, but just how unprepared has been eye opening. While the Chiefs and Crusaders were both on song on the night, I was shocked that the Brumbies had absolutely no answer for their offload play in successive home games, given that offloading was a key focus for the Vikings throughout the NRC last year. Sure it may not have been as clinical, but every player on the field was consciously looking to offload in contact, and more importantly get in position to be available to take any possible offload. The Brumbies attack in comparison has looked very structured, to the point of rigid and predictable.
Markus
Guest
"We should admit that as it is today the players from the Force, Rebels and Brumbies all play their club rugby in these two leagues anyway." True 20 years ago, not so much now. Many play in each of their city's respective club comps, Brumbies especially. Plus the only reason everyone played club rugby in the Sydney or Brisbane competitions is because it was the only way to get noticed for the Wallabies in the absence of a real national competition. I was previously in favour of combining the Sydney and Brisbane clubs in a 2 division promotion/relegation competition, but Shute Shield clubs in particular were none too keen on such an idea. Not surprising given they won't even incorporate with their own city's Subbies competition.
richard
Guest
The compromise between size v speed goes as far back as the 1987 RWC.John Hart in his book made the point that NZ was going for mobility and skill,as the AB pack would not be able to out-muscle packs like Eng/Fra/Aus.. It has been the blueprint for NZ rugby since then,so it is hardly anything new.
Wal
Roar Guru
Great Point Carlos I think the AB's have strived very hard to reach a compromise in size vs speed. There have been to many Matt Dunning types in the WB's, with a few more km's in his legs could have been a phenomenal player. Google him now!!!! The Boks are very different in the need for hulking muscular giants. Guys like Pier Spies carried too much muscle to be effective over 80 minutes A forward who weighs 120kg uses and additional 150 calories (about 8%) over 80 minutes of exercise. That 8% becomes a yawning chasm in the last 10 minutes of a rugby match.
Scrumma
Guest
Funny enough that touch rugby has taken New Zealand rugby to another level but Australia actually dominates the World Cup touch rugby tournaments in most grades. There are a lot of young kiwis mainly maori who have moved to Australia starting up new touch rugby teams in local modules even representing the state they reside in and playing rugby or league in the off season.
stainlesssteve
Guest
high standard of fitness and skill, no silly imaginary line making you offside, speed and athleticism favoured over size and strength, opening the game up for more body-types. then there is the culture: Spoiling, shepherding, unselfish play, and getting emotional when your mates carry you off the field after your last game with the club. compare with NFL, which is given some sort of cult status by radio commentators mostly out of Auckland, compare, and shudder!
riddler
Guest
some good points carlos.. there is definitely a point to be made over muscles for mirrors and strength in contact.. for a few years now a few players seem to have been more worried about the gun show than being out muscled on the field.. as for speed, we have lacked that across the park for about 15 years... personally think that it can be linked back to the muscle mirror problem that seems a wee bit prevalent..
riddler
Guest
rob do u have sources on the inside for this about ewen.. interesting if true.. i have zero source inside or outside, but was under the assumption that he had lost both dressing rooms.. but maybe that is the media beat up..
Coconut
Guest
You're right about the offloads, very difficult to defend against when its happening so quickly. When I go back and look at the highlights the short passes do look very flat, if not forward. Could be just the camera angle, but some often do look forward.
mania
Guest
no way harry the main difference is the fitness. I don't understand it. why don't other teams train harder? why is it the just the nz teams that have a high level of fitness? those from the highVeldt should be the fittest in the world yet kiwi teams always seem to have more puff when playing there
pete and paul
Roar Rookie
sorry Scrumma - Bernie is wrong...more and more NZers are moving back to NZ...Aussie is not such a sweet deal anymore...and Aussie rugby deserves its rankings as the 4th sport in Australia...noting will change and if Bernie thinks so, he must be suffering from a concussion