Get your head out of the sand – Saturday night confirms at least one of the following to be true.
The Giants are en route to top four and a viable premiership contender or the Hawthorn footy club find themselves in a hole.
The headlines on Sunday morning were about Richmond and Hardwick and 27,000 people at the MCG and that’s fair enough, the Tigers are to 2016 what lay-down Sally is to successful boating.
Perhaps it was because it happened in the subtle Saturday twilight fixture not far from where the Bulldogs are from Canterbury rather than Footscray, but the GWS’ utter dismantling of the reigning premier is undeniably monumental.
Let’s cover the Giants first. They were always touted to win flags within five minutes and be the scorn of the competition for the utter gluttony of talent at their disposal. If immense initial draft concessions weren’t enough they are now backing that up with favourable trading and even more favourable academies.
Yet we were seemingly bluffed in waiting for the Giants (and the Suns too for that matter) to prosper into September savagery. It is like waiting for that 7:37 Belgrave train – the literature says it’s a certainty but your eyes suggest clearly otherwise.
Last year, first half of the year, here we go – the Giants are finally arriving; a finals spot looked odds on. Immaturity, injuries, whatever it was, the season flopped like a Channel Nine cooking show and lamentable assessment ensued.
This year, they lost the unlosable to an emerging Melbourne and sure a Sydney derby loss is noteworthy but one gets the feeling that whenever the Swans play the Giants from here on in the form guide and the ladder mean as much as manners to an American.
But there’s been three wins now, punctuated by the win Saturday night, that suggest if they can reasonably avoid an inconsistency from inexperience and youthfulness, their time could conceivably be upon us.
Geelong are a good football side and will be around top four come year’s end, they are a big improvement on last year and with continuity of personnel will come the sort of gelling that will seem them do very well in the spring.
The GWS put aside the Cats in such a comfortable manner in Canberra pundits were scared to acknowledge reality and put the Geelong performance down to ‘an off day’, they were a ‘bit flat’ and the home side made the most of it. No dice, Geelong were just run off their feet by a quality, damn scary line-up.
Move forward to the Giants’ next game in Canberra, the astonishingly frightful take down of Port Adelaide. Sure, the Power are not really, well, powerful in 2016, but the 14-goal margin was what a team with top-four quality and critically top-four credentials should be doing, and that’s just what the GWS did.
So we come to Hawthorn. Four grand finals on the trot, three flags in a row, utter respect and immense credits in the bank. The Cats nobbled them first round, sure, but the league sat up and watched the grand final rematch and could not but remark that Hawthorn was well in business to grab that illustrious fourth consecutive title.
But since then it’s been patchy, rusty, and to be properly honest unimpressive.
Yes, the Bulldogs are a good footy side and one capable of September success, but the Saints in Launceston despite how encouraging their rebuild has been should have been put away.
Add in the fact Adelaide, in Melbourne, did a Greg Norman at Augusta and somehow lost it in the dying moments and the Hawks have got out of jail again.
Some in the press will praise the Hawks, suggesting to win three games each by three points shows grit, steel, a manic desire to win and among all else the true class that has them as premiership favourite.
Kidding themselves.
No question the Hawks will come good and be possibly the last team you’d want to play in the finals but right now the main reason they’re 4-2 and not 1-5 is pure lemonade and sars.
The Dogs were stiff, the Saints were robbed by the men in green and again, the Crows were up by three goals and lost that how?
So, at Homebush, a late Saturday autumnal afternoon, one team in orange, on the rise, the other in brown and gold and with a point to prove.
What happened? A 12-goal win.
Not a tight tussle between two good sides. Not the Giants by four goals in an impressive outing but a 12 goal margin, a smacking, a shellacking, a ferocious feasting.
The home side smashed those wearing poo’s and wee’s in contested ball by a margin of +39. Not only were the young men of the western suburbs ferocious at the contest but they were +22 in the tackles as well. How often does a team that wins by 75 points annihilate their opponents with the tackle count too?
Uncontested possessions, the Giants were +60, the clearances, again, the Giants +18. Immense stuff, powerful stuff really.
What does it all mean then? Well, it gives real credibility to one of the following headlines, neither which is getting the column inches that either should warrant.
Either the Giants are ready, they’re here, they have arrived in such a way they can tear apart top-four fancies in a shuddering sign that the wave of orange success is nigh.
Or you know what, if they Hawks are letting the Giants score 158 points against them, then yes, those three close wins are wallpaper over cracks, they’ve got big problems and their crown is shaky.
Truth be told, there could be a mesmerising third possibility: maybe its both.
Dad of footy-playing kids
Guest
Hi All, yes my Hawks appear up against it currently. However, let’s consider the number of Finals appearances over the last 5 years. Because we are analysing Hawks, I have noted Finals since 2011 inclusive, Shown in Club/No of Finals Matches, and (No of weeks in Finals). Top 5 in No of Finals represented: Hawthorn, 16 Finals Matches (19 Weeks in Finals) Sydney, 13 (15 weeks) Fremantle, 9 (11 weeks) Geelong, 9 (10 weeks) West Coast, 8 (9 weeks) Hawthorn has accumulated nearly enough weeks for an additional season over and above usual Home-and-Away rounds. Maybe some are starting to feel the effects of this, with nowhere near some of the end-of-season break others have had, neither team that has beaten Hawks this season to-date even played in Finals last year. Yep – throw some sympathy at us….only kidding. Anyway, if the boys do come back to the pack, I and my sons will revel in the sheer enjoyment of 4 Flags in 8 years….more than some clubs supporters have provided in an entire lifetime. I will take that any day of the week.
New York Hawk
Guest
Yes, 6 wins for Freo this year is about right. Or maybe less.
Don Freo
Guest
Mitchell? He was totally smothered by a 30 possession Coniglio. Mitchell's contribution is reduced to one metre handpasses...most of which are throws...and they often fall short.
Dean
Guest
Gibson had one good match. Was beaten by Kersten round 1 and did nothing to stem the tide on the weekend even when Lobbe was dominating up forward, Gibson was notably ineffective. I agree, it's unlikely to happen all at once this year, but they're so reliant on these guys that it's basically only Mitchell left standing at the moment. If he gets injured, it's season and era over for the Hawks.
Samantha
Roar Rookie
The AFL is growing just fine but you keep up with your one trick argument while the rest of us continue to laugh at how pathetic your repeated attempts are to inject this same tired and soundly beaten argument into every thread.
mattyb
Guest
Why are some so illogically obsessed about making sure these 20k Melbourne cricket fans get to watch the GF. Why constantly say the MCG holds 30k more people. The population of Australia is over 20m. It's a huge market to try and tap into yet some worry about such tiny numbers in comparison in a vain attempt the say their grounds the most important. If the AFL doesn't go truelly national and try to grow in these markets something else will. The rusted on VFL supporters are a barnacle on the AFL ship that needs to set said around the nation so it can grow.
Wilson
Roar Guru
How so?
Wilson
Roar Guru
each to his own opinion but I desagree with yours.
Giddy
Guest
The time your referring to would be Melbourne drafting 2007 - 2012. In that time they had 9 1st round picks. They drafted terribly but still found a few that could play. Either side of those 6 years they got Nathan jones, Frawley, and Jesse Hogan with 1st round picks. GWS HAVE HAD 25 in the 5 years so far. Shiel, Cameron, Treloar and Steele were all 1st rounders in a regular draft (Shiel and Cameron would have been top 3). They drafted in 4 more previous 1st rounders and now already have 3 in this years draft. That's 36 over 6 years of which 8 have moved on. You can stuff up 9 but you can't stuff up 36
Don Freo
Guest
22 minus 6 is 16.
jax
Guest
Peter "First, movable grand finals are unfeasible until the MCG contract expires or another Australian metropolis (likely Sydney or nouveau riche and culturally self-conscious Perth) builds a 100,000 seat oval-shaped venue' Gill raised the possibility of a Top 10 so anything is possible when vested interested are motivated but the VFL isn't motivated to nationalise the game as quickly as many would like. There is an alternative for the GF before the MCG contract expires but I'll save that for another day. 100k stadiums are terrible and you are using it as justification for retaining the VFL's stranglehold on the AFL. You can't see the game from the nose-bleeds seats in the GSS so what's the point? Who cares if 20,000 MCC cricket fans miss an AFL GF? If the Federal Gov't didn't keep taking so much money from WA and giving so little back the state would be in a much better position.
jax
Guest
There are 10 Victorian clubs and only 2 NSW clubs. GWS plays 8 games at Spotless this year. Your logic is illogical.
Axle an the Guru
Guest
All of them have FA hope Don, there seasons are all over except Melb &GC but they are hunt not good enough.
AB
Guest
"the Hawks could easily be 1-5..." Yep, and last year they could've easily been 8-0 instead of 4-4, if they hadn't lost four close games. Ironically, they may well find themselves at 6-2 after round 8 this year, but in worse form (and with more doubters) than when they were 4-4 at the same point last year. One point I'll concede to the growing ranks of Hawthorn doubters is that the Hawks look like dropping off a cliff in the near future. It's true that their best players are, by and large, their oldest players. That said, I'm not yet ready to concede that they can't win the flag this year. Their ageing stars aren't finished yet. It's too easy to focus on how they played three days ago; and too easy to forget that in the first five rounds, both Mitchell and Gibson (for example) have played some of the best footy of their entire careers. Indeed both have had a 44-possession game this season. Mitchell is behind only Dangerfield in the Roar MVP and probably on track for yet another top-3 finish in the Brownlow. So yes, the Hawks are playing like a team that belongs in the bottom half of the eight rather than the top half. And yes, when Mitchell/Hodge/Gibson/Burgoyne slow down - a moment that is drawing nearer every day - the Hawks will probably decline quickly. But on the other hand, they've had one of the toughest draws so far and the next month looks a lot easier; they'll almost certainly end up better-placed than after the first 8 rounds last year; and their old champions are still, for the most part, playing like champions. So call me an optimist, but I reckon it's too early to write them off just yet.
Bretto
Guest
Don - the Pies wouldn't beat the blind women's wheelchair team at the moment.
mattyb
Guest
I'd have to agree with the Fremantle v Geelong final. It was the straw that broke the Camels back for me. Remarkably there are many who are willing to defend this action. Of coarse there is a lot more we can do to even up the MCG GF situation but I can't see it happening as the VFL clubs and their over centric fans won't give an inch. Just move the whole thing I say.
Peter
Guest
Balthazar, "Nouveau riche and culturally self-conscious Perth" Thanks for the interest in an increasingly off-topic sub thread (my fault!). The statement means Perth has recently become a very rich city in a very rich State, behind only Melbourne and Sydney after not so long ago trailing even Adelaide, and that my impression is West Australians are conscious of the fact their capital city has not enjoyed the same pre-eminence in nationwide arts and sports as their more established rivals. Hosting a grand final would be a WA Premier's dream. Consider how South Australia, a footy bastion, embraced soccer for the A-League Grand Final and puffed its chest at holding an event of international and Australian significance.
Giovanni Torre
Guest
Cracking yarn this. Love it. And it is a little from column A and a little from column B. Even factoring in injuries... the fact the Hawks could easily be 1-5 after that hat trick of 3-point wins is telling. No doubt they're still a good side, and will get players back, but they've come back to the pack. And what about Steve Johnson? The guy is hungry for another Norm Smith, make no mistake. Icing on the cake at an amazingly talented side. I saw Coniglio as a 16 year-old kick four goals in the Swan Districts WAFL premiership win in 2010. The lead changed 13 times in the last quarter and the Ducks won by a point. Coniglio never looked like losing his cool. Huge talent.
Balthazar
Guest
Sorry? Nouveau riche and culturally self-conscious Perth? Not that the statement makes a lot of sense but what sort of cultural setting is required for 2 teams of young blokes to kick an inflated bladder across a field? I don't particularly care that the GF is at the MCG but I think a lot more can be done to ensure that all teams have more balanced access to it if that's the case. I still remember the final Freo played against the Cats in 2012? and it was Freo's first game there all year.
Balthazar
Guest
's funny. I'd always assumed it was the Anti-Fremantle league, what with the "concessions" Freo was lucky enough to get when it started out, the one-off final at the Cattery and the general attitude of umpires