We’re six rounds into the AFL season, and the year has taken shape to such an extent that the final eight is already set, in quantity if not yet in position. The jostling for top two and top-four finishes is where the intrigue will lie.
A few weeks ago, I wrote about how we shouldn’t overreact after three rounds, and that we didn’t yet know what was “real” of the things we were seeing. It was hard to know what was true, but the surest thing was that some of it would be.
Well, if a week is a long time in football, then three weeks is a lifetime, and the natural order is set. The gap between the top eight and bottom ten is vast. Thankfully, we’re likely in the most even battle for the flag we’ve seen in 20 years.
A quarter of the way through the season, we now have a fairly proportionate overview of each team.
North have made the early running off the back of a beautifully functioning forward-line led by the re-born Jarrad Waite, and a midfield being led by the dominance of Todd Goldstein and revitalised by the class of Daniel Wells.
The Roos got the Dogs at the right time last week, but their ability to scrap out a win, with minimal involvement from Goldstein, was a measure of their grit. The ability to win a number of different ways is invaluable.
North has only played two of the teams that will play finals, and won narrowly each time. It says that even though they are unbeaten on top, there isn’t a lot between a few sides, and other results also bear that theory out.
Geelong hasn’t really been tested for a month, but we’ll get more of a handle on them in the next two weeks when they face a West Coast desperate to prove themselves away from Subiaco and the Crows in Adelaide.
As expected, Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood have formed a dynamic duo, with solid support from the likes of Mitch Duncan, Steven Motlop and Josh Caddy. They have nine players that are averaging more than a goal a game, a league high.
Sydney has put together a solid body of work in the last month, strong wins over contenders GWS and West Coast, as well as pushing Adelaide all the way when on the road. If they can break even in matches against fellow contenders for the rest of the season, they’re on track for a 16 win year, at least.
No other side has five ball-winners the calibre of Luke Parker, Daniel Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, Tom Mitchell and Kieren Jack. There is still a query over their defence, and no other top eight side comes close to having as heavy a reliance on their leading goal-kicker than Sydney does on Lance Franklin, who has kicked a quarter of their goals.
Of the current top seven teams on the ladder, and thus excluding Hawthorn, the Swans have by far the most proven body of work across both home-and-away and finals over the last two years, which gives them more credibility than the others. The case is there that they are the team to beat in the premiership race, with a top-four spot theirs to lose.
Western Bulldogs were the hot team to start the year, but the gloss is starting to wear off a little, even if that is in some ways driven by injury.
The fact is they have played four almost certain non-finalists for four wins, and two highly probable finalists for two losses. Despite their reputation for “run and gun”, they are much more of a defensive than attacking side, ranked first in points against and 12th in points for. This off a softish draw with all matches at their home track.
Of the current top eight, the Dogs are by far the most vulnerable to dropping out, and will have their work cut out just to get a home final in week one. Avenues to goal looked a weakness in the pre-season, and so it is proving.
GWS are the latest hot side, with three consecutive wins by an average of 12 goals, against reasonable sides too, not against the dross propping up the bottom five or six spots on the ladder.
Leon Cameron has built a team intent on sharing the load, which they do across all the main statistical categories, both inside and outside. 11 players are averaging 20 possessions or more a game, they’ve had 19 individual goal-kickers, and their tackle-load, clearances and contested possession is also evenly distributed.
The Giants are the true run-and-gun side of the competition, leading the way in running bounces too. Twelve other teams haven’t even had half of the 96 they have. Only two other sides have had more than 60.
They’ve got an interesting six weeks ahead, and if they can get through it 3-3, they can lock up their inaugural finals spot before July is out. They can rightfully eye off a stop-four position, but they are going to have unexpected lapses that may prevent them from securing it.
West Coast deserve no credit to this point in the season, despite a 4-2 record. They’ve beaten nothing at home in their four wins, and have travelled to play two contenders and been soundly whipped each time.
Even if they can’t beat Geelong or the Bulldogs away from home in the next five weeks, they’ll still likely be 7-4 at the halfway mark, yet barely relevant. At some point will we see what they’re really made of, or are we already seeing it?
Adelaide might not necessarily be the best team in it, but they’ve probably played the best football across the first six rounds, both from an attacking perspective and also to the naked eye. Defence is still a concern, but you may well say that for every team. If defence is a problem for everyone, then it’s a problem for no-one. Although, it means that’s where a competitive advantage may lie.
The Crows should be made better for the return of Brad Crouch, who just can’t get any continuity to his game at AFL level. Playing SANFL after a three week injury lay-off on the weekend, he had 36 touches, ten clearances and ten tackles, once more proving how far above that level he is.
No back six in the competition is equipped to handle the Adelaide forwards, so if they can continue to break even in the midfield, or even consistently win those battles, they should be a threat all year. Narrow losses to ladder-leading North and triple premier Hawthorn, plus a hard-fought win over Sydney further enhances the view that there isn’t much between any of them.
Hawthorn are in eighth spot on the ladder, but with a percentage that took a battering over the weekend, which was the price to pay after three narrow victories.
Across the home-and-away rounds last season, the Hawks ranked #1 in both attack and defence, while this year they currently sit 10th in points for and a more alarming 12th in points against.
There has started to be much talk about them being smashed in contested possession in the mainstream media, but as Roarer Damian Rutledge noted last week, it hasn’t been a strength of the premiership-winning Hawks.
Ball movement is where Hawthorn have outshone the competition in a big way over the last few years, and they simply aren’t moving the ball the way we’ve been accustomed to. They also aren’t winning the ball back in order to launch counter-attacks.
Josh Gibson has taken only four marks in three of his five games this season. Only twice in 25 matches last year did he take four marks or less. Given how important he is as both an intercept and link player, it’s a telling trend. The absence of Brian Lake is being felt.
Ryan Buckland had a good look at the sides in the bottom half of the ladder last week, so there’s no need to go into huge detail here.
Melbourne aren’t mature enough to be playing finals yet, but can be expected to in 2017. St Kilda don’t have the class, and are still a team in transition with a tricky year or two coming up. Port aren’t good enough – they’ve played three contenders for a 0-3 record with a percentage of 52. Hmm.
Gold Coast don’t have the depth to cover their significant injuries, but will trouble teams if they can get close to their best team on the park. They might still be the best team outside the eight. Outside the Carlton loss, Fremantle are getting incrementally more competitive, even as the soldiers fall. Ross Lyon’s press conferences are must-watch. Impressively unflappable.
Brisbane are having a sneaky good year amidst a terrible draw, and if they’d been handed a friendlier fixture to open the year they’d be 3-3 or even 4-2. Their challenge is going to be getting over the line when those winnable games come along after a string of losses. The Dockers couldn’t.
That leaves us with the traditional big four Victorian sides from the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s, which also happens to be the ages of Richmond, Collingwood, Essendon and Carlton fans that can remember when they were good.
The Bombers are what they are, but will pop up for another win or two at some point. For the Blues, beating fellow bottom four sides is their level, and it’s pleasing that they’ve done it twice when the opportunity has presented. The Tigers keep hitting rock-bottom, but refuse to be satisfied, and continue getting out the tools to drill even deeper.
The Pies have shown some signs of life in the last couple of weeks, notably in the first half against Essendon and the middle two quarters against West Coast. They might just be on the improve, but then it’s hard to go much lower than not registering a pulse.
Yes, it’s a long season. And yes, anything can happen. Injuries can strike, top teams can fall out of form and lower teams can find it. Even given all of that, the current top eight teams are too good to not register 12 wins, and the bottom ten sides are either too inconsistent, too immature or just plain bad, so they won’t get there.
Don Freo
Guest
Ward, Shaw, Mumford, Johnson, Palmer, Davis...how young are they? Even their kids are mostly 50 to 100 gamers now. Don't count on inexperience.
jason
Guest
GWS wont make it ...I reckon they will start to fall in the next 2 or 3 weeks..Young list not menatlly or phsically tough enough..They may finish at best 8th..It`s not a sprint, its a marathon...They are in for a rude awakening ...
Don Freo
Guest
Lycett is quite a way better than Sinclair and is beginning to show it. A vital cog in WC this year. WC is currently the AFL's best team. The only teams that have beaten them this year are flat track bullies that can't win when they travel to WA. Well, Hawthorn won one of their trips last year but that's only 50/50 and that side doesn't exist any more.
jax
Guest
Sinclair has started better although we are only 6 games in and Call has been a bit up and down himself. It's too early to make a long-term call on the trade. Wellingham had a slow 2 years at WC and look at him now. I hope it doesn't take Jetta two years to settle in but Simmo is giving him and Redden time as neither of them have hit their straps yet. As I said at the time of the trade - Sinclair will perform and be very good for Sydney and he was jsut what they needed but he was also a mature age rookie that cost WC nothing and WC already had Lycett waiting in the wings and he's now showing just how good he is. Lycett has had a better start to the year than Sinclair. For the record, Sinclair asked WC to match the Swans offer of a 4 year contract (or something close) but they refused. Big call I know but Lycett had been on the list for years, he was younger than Call and he has been groomed by Cox since his first day at the club and they knew that they had 3 first class ruckmen on their list and that one of them would ultimately leave for greater opportunity, some clubs didn't have one ruckman of this calibre so trading him made sense but the jury is obviously still out on Jetta. I think we need to take a deep breath and wait a few years before we start saying who won this trade.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
It's true for any team, but the Swans have had always had a problem with depth. Teams should be able to cover the loss of 1 or 2 players but as mentioned if Grundy or Franklin gets injured, the structure of the Swans team changes dramatically.
EddyJ
Guest
Sure, but doesn't that apply to every team competing for the premiership? Western Bulldogs have had a few injuries, and have dropped off a bit. It also depends on when the injuries occur. Virtually half of the Swans team could be injured before the match against Essendon, but they'd more than likely still win the game. If Franklin and Tippett are unavailable against Hawthorn, that would be a worry. Whoever is left standing at the end of the season needs a combination of high skills and luck with injuries. This year won't be any different.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
The Swannies have made a decent start to the season, but their draw has been pretty soft. After this weekend, they have a tough 5 matches ahead. 4 of them are on the road and their only home game is against North Melbourne. Defensively, the looked vulnerable with Ted Richards out of the side and if Grundy gets injured the dam wall could burst. The small forwards of Pappli and Hewett have been welcome additions but as you point Cam, a lot rests on buddy's shoulders. Should be finals bound, but a couple of injuries to the wrong players and they will just be making up the numbers.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Brendon, I didn't say Sydney and Adelaide weren't that good, I said that they were vulnerable in defence and if they could get it right it could lead to a flag. In fact, I was at pains to praise them for what they had done so far.
Don Freo
Guest
Can't agree on Wells. He has been brilliant recently but not "career best". He has been way better in the past and that's really exciting because his best is yet to come this year.
Jackpott
Guest
You speak about Lewis Jetta. Who do you think won in the trade between Sydney and West Coast with regards to Lewis Jetta and Cullum Sinclair?
Kavvy
Guest
Exactly and that's why it's an even/wide open year. the eight might look settled (ish) but picking who'll won it is probably harder than it's been after rd 6 for many many years. A good thing
Kavvy
Guest
historically your right re over 30's but the way Waite and Wells are in career best form, Nick Riewoldt's back to his best, Mitchell's been great before the w/e and def leading Hawks B&F and Stevey J kicked five in half in Saturday. The over 30's are representing better than ever this year...
peter chrisp
Guest
It's difficult to predict but so far the teams in the top 8 look as though they will remain in the 8? Obviously the order will change throughout the year, or should we wait until halfway when there is a bye then we can judge, but it's great reading these predictions or should i say predicaments that some clubs are in. At the moment although i am not looking at the drawer i guess one week at a time, just outside the 8 which may have surprised a few punters Melbourne, can they hang on and win a few more games could they just reach the 8 at say the expense of Hawthorn? Hmmm very interesting, we have Gold Coast & Port also on 12 points & The Saints on 8. where those 4 clubs go form here will be of great interest, and this week a game of the round Western Bulldogs & Adelaide can The Crows get over the line in Melbourne, a pretty good chance you would think. Damian with The Cats in pretty good form could they do it again?
Hikikomori
Guest
feeling incontinent are we? Have you tried gaviscon?
Momentbymoment
Guest
They looked awesome at times but appalling the rest of the time. Never been so frustrated after some of their wins.
DamianR
Guest
Well summarised! As far as eventual Premiers go, you could pick 6 teams and still miss out (which is a good thing!). Surely the Cats can't win can they? I mean, 2016 is an even number ;)
DamianR
Guest
Yep, agree - WC are certainly not in my "most vulnerable" category.... just meant that from a flag chance, I'd really like them to string together a couple of wins on the road against a real contender. They're too classy a side to miss I believe but they'll lose 1 or 2 they're not supposed to somewhere along the line. No certainties for top4. Looking at my notes on Port's fixture, I note that in terms of the 6-day break (some people don't rate it but I do when up against a 7/8-day break), they have a 6-1 advantage (incl v NM, Syd and Adel) in such games for remainder of year. May play a role and be the slight difference between making it and not. And a massive game v Hawks in July I reckon. Geez, for a Hawks fan I'm talking up Port aren't I? Saints (as do Tiges) play Ess twice still (Coll and Melb play them nil). I know there's no walkovers as such but just sayin' a very possible 8 points for Saints. Anyway, bring on Rounds 7 to 23!
Arky
Guest
Yeah, the draw has had a big influence so far- Brisbane might well rise for example, not to finals level but they have gone 1-5 against 5 quality teams and one bad one, and very nearly knocked off the Swans at least, as they play more bottom 10 teams I reckon they'll get out of the bottom 4. Hawks have played a tougher draw than other top 8 teams. On the other hand Geelong has been building a reputation by putting bottom 8 teams to the sword, so have the Dogs, so has West Coast. In many years (for example, Collingwood the last two years) there is an early bolter who falls away when the draw gets tough, and one or more teams that come good later- could be Port, could be Melbourne, even the Saints or GCS.
Arky
Guest
Fatigue when playing a team that was a man down on the bench most of the game (two men down during the 2nd quarter when Wright was being assessed and patched up) doesn't bode awfully well for the Dogs, although North may legitimately be the fittest team in the comp, they won the last quarter against both Adelaide and the Dogs despite being a man down in both games. After the way the league brought in the sub rule partially due to the complaints that a team who is a man down on the bench was hugely disadvantaged (albeit in the days when there was unlimited rotations allowed), it has kind of become a forgotten factor when looking at game results.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Although the number of teams that won’t be playing finals seems to be growing by the Round as this season progresses, there is still a very wide open race for a team to win the Premiership this year. There are a number of teams in the Top 8 currently that have finals experience, with a few having had multiple successes on the biggest day of the year. Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong will all back themselves to win it if they finish anywhere in the 8. Hawthorn more than any other Club knows how to win in September in the recent past. 4 Flags from 5 GF Appearances since 2008 but they are now finding that other teams are hunting them more than usual and the Giants crushing them on Saturday afternoon has shown everyone that they are ‘gettable’ for the first time in a long time. The Kangaroos should have learnt lessons from 2 Preliminary Final defeats in successive years and at the moment they are playing some good footy. They also have their veteran players playing at their peak and little to no notable injuries on the list. That can change in the blink of an eye and you only need to look at the Western Bulldogs. The Dogs are missing Murphy, Suckling and JJ off that half-back flank for their run and dash and the forward line looks a little less threatening than it did 3 weeks ago. The Crows and Eagles have both had a taste of the finals in recent seasons. While the Eagles were embarrassed in the big dance last year they will be better for the experience should they get there again this year (unless they play Hawthorn!). The Crows have one of the most damaging forward lines in the competition but can there defence keep oppositions to low enough scores during the finals and the GF to win it all? The Giants are the great unknown if they make the 8. On their day, which is starting to become more regular, they can put sides to the sword as they did Hawthorn last weekend. Can they play finals with the same dash, confidence and verve or will the pressure of high stakes football knock them out early? They have all the tools to win this year, the main thing lacking may be maturity. There is every chance they pinch a Flag before their time. There is a crop of teams hanging around in the 9-13 that may sneak a spot or two in the 8 should form, fitness and confidence return to their play and teams above them suffer injuries the way that the Dockers currently have. Are any of Melbourne, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, St. Kilda or Collingwood worthy of playing finals footy in 2016? Maybe or maybe not, time will tell. Teams from Carlton and below can focus on development and beating each other with maybe a sneaky win or two over sides higher on the ladder that don’t bring effort and respect on gameday.