The Warrnambool carnival, as it always does, provided some spirited racing through the week, having commendably carved out an old-school niche on the calendar.
That means the South Australian and Queensland carnivals are also ramping up, and Morphetville hosts two Group 1s on Saturday, the Robert Sangster Stakes for the sprinting mares and the Australasian Oaks for the staying fillies.
The Sangster is the feature race of the day, and it’s attracted a capacity 20-horse field with plenty of smart fillies and mares among them.
Hometown filly Don’t Doubt Mamma heads the market in an extremely open betting race, coming in with winning form after taking out the Redelva Stakes in fine style a fortnight ago, off the back of a short but successful Melbourne campaign. More renowned over a bit further than the 1200m of this race, she’ll get back from a wide barrier and be strong late.
Petits Filou has been impressive in lesser grades but has failed in her two attempts against A-grade opposition, once in the Moir Stakes behind the likes of Buffering, and last start in the Arrowfield behind fellow three-year-olds Japonisme and Counterattack. A few gear changes may help her bounce back.
Badawiya is another filly, and might just be the most talented horse in the race. When she puts it all together, she tends to leave the rest of her age group in her wake. Very good off a freshen or a break, the month between runs is in her favour, and she represents value at the $13 mark if she sprints as well as she can.
Super Cash is the other filly in the field, an honest horse with form around Don’t Doubt Mamma and Petits Filou, but she doesn’t quite have the talent to find the line first in this sort of field.
Of the more seasoned mares, Griante is the best credentialled, always Group 1 competitive against the boys, and winner of the Galaxy up in Sydney earlier this prep. Not many can find bad luck like her, and if Craig Williams can keep her out of trouble from gate three she’s sure to be in the finish.
Sheidel is a former Perth mare that took a few runs to break through for the Hayes and Dabernig training combo, and may be ready to go on with it now. Stablemate Miss Promiscuity chased home Malaguerra first-up and has posted back-to-back wins since. She’s always competitive.
Precious Gem has taken on the boys at her first two runs this prep, just edged out in the Hareeba Stakes before winning the Anniversary Vase second-up. The 1200 metres may be too short for her though. Scarlett Billows and I Love It are also dropping back from winning 1400-metre performances. The former was good in a decent William Reid before that, while the latter is resuming and does have to bridge a gap in class.
Like so many mares in this race, Sultry Feeling has different types of form against several of her competitors, and she could well be good enough at her pet distance.
Sabatini always has a case, and it’s a smart move by connections to hit this second-up off a freshen after a strong first-up run behind Miss Promiscuity. Tycoon Tara was third there and meets them both better at the weights here. She was caught wide last start, so can be forgiven, and has always looked a type that could win a good race.
Tuscan Sling has beaten Reldas and Azkadellia in recent times, which is some of the best form around, and she is outstanding value if she brings her best. Vezalay almost always runs well, and beat some of this field in the spring, and has been good up in Sydney. Her record at 1200m or beyond (8: 0-0-2) as against 1000m-1100m (5: 3-1-0) tells us all we need to know though.
Private Secretary will be powering home late, and is every chance to get there off a genuine speed. Former Kiwi Miss Seton Sands hasn’t been shown much respect by the market, but can get a nice run and like every horse in the field can pop up in the first four. Runway Star is still improving, and the Stokes/Tourneur combo should always be taken seriously.
Pre-race, you could throw a blanket over a dozen of these and still miss the winner, and that usually means there’s value to be had. You could pour over the form for a day and be no closer to the winner, or you could throw a dart at the board and hit it in one.
Selections
1. Badawiya
2. Tycoon Tara
3. Griante
4. Private Secretary
The Australasian Oaks also looks a tough race to crack, with a number of potential chances.
Silent Sedition has looked a nice fit for this race since her impressive maiden win to kick off her prep, after a series of eye-catching performances against the tempo back in spring. She’s learnt to race forward, and has the knack of finding the box seat, which she should again from barrier seven. She ticks a lot of boxes.
C’est Beau La Vie was second behind Silent Sedition last start in the Auraria Stakes, leading them along in a race where the on-speed runners were most advantaged. She beat a good one in Sailing By at the start before, so her credentials are sound. Those two beat the rest comfortably, and it would surprise to see others from that race turn the tables.
Bengal Cat beat Silent Sedition on merit over a mile at Sandown two starts back, and went on with it last start. The form behind her is outstanding, and she’ll make her own luck if drawing the car park doesn’t bring her unstuck in the early stages.
You can always count on Mick Kent for an unusual prep with his young stayers, and he hasn’t disappointed here with the undefeated Abbey Marie. Debut in a 1300-metre maiden, a month into a 1440-metre benchmark 70, and two weeks into a 2000-metre Group 1 at her third start. His horses invariably run well though.
Two fillies are representing Perth, following in the footsteps of Delicacy for Grant Williams last season. Arcadia Dream won the WA Derby after running the quinella behind First Impressions in the Oaks, and is the better horse than her stablemate, although there isn’t often a lot between them.
Pasadena Girl hasn’t won since her Champagne Stakes win as a two-year-old, and has progressively got worse in some ways. You’d be taking her on trust, but there is a case there. Believe is also coming down from Sydney, off a placing at big odds in the ATC Oaks. A lot is being asked of her in her first prep.
Sacred Eye isn’t the horse we saw over the first four starts of her career, which saw a second to Badawiya in the Edward Manifold, and a dominant win in the Caulfield Classic. Perhaps she hasn’t recovered from the 2500 metres of the VRC Oaks on a heavy track at start five. Asinara showed a bit up in Sydney and can be competitive.
Selections
1. Silent Sedition
2. Bengal Cat
3. Abbey Marie
4. Arcadia Dream
peeeko
Guest
delicacy, mays dream, maybe discreet, invest, lights of heaven amd small minds. theres some quality G1 horses there if you think this is equal to the other oaks then i hope you dont punt too much
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Well actually she doesn't. Didn't race against all sexes last start. I think I would have to go with SHEIDEL and hope the inside barrier isn't a negative for her.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Hi Cam. I could have done a historical article on the Sangster Stakes too, as I did last year. These are the stats I came up with then; The most relevant historical statistics are weighted, and collated in the table below; A) 10/13 drew barrier 9 or wider- 3 points B) 11/13 were aged either three or four - 3 points C) 9/13 Placed last start- 3 points D) 13/13 ran in a Group or Listed race last start- 2 points 7/13 ran in a Group 1 race “ “ - + 1 point E) 11/13 raced between 1000m and 1200m at their last start- 2 points F) 10/13 raced against all sexes at previous start- 2 points G) 12/13 raced on a left handed (anti-clockwise) track last start- 2 points H) 6/13 either led or were in second place in the early stages of this race- 2 Points I) 9/13 started $8 or less- 1 point. I had a brief look earlier and DON"T DOUBT MAMMA fills absolutely all the criteria. Not far off though are Sheidel, Sabatini & Tempt Me Not. They are all younger fillies/mares though.
andrew
Guest
the oaks is worthy of group 1 status based on this field. its as a good race in terms of depth as the VRC and AJC Oaks. however, with oaks races, its often the case of 'time will tell'. last year we saw delicacy beat fenway. this was the highest rating 3yo fillies race of the season in all of australia.
andrew
Guest
Flem 2 – Rib Eye gets his chance to win a Sat race here after good 1st up run when held up and had to switch across heels. Don’t think distance will worry him 2nd up given small field and likely tactical run race, and had won a 990m trial before 1st up run. if anything, this suits, as he can sprint quicker, esp with his weight advantage. And the weight adv over key rivals is significant, basically getting 7kgs from his two main rivals. 3 – rebound ran on strong from back of the field 1st and think she can build through his gears and possibly be too powerful in the last 200m here 2nd up, even though it’s a step in class numerically, it is only a 3yo fillies 78 race. fluer fatale is promising, but 2nd up off a long spell, grey st has been up a long time and 1200m a query, and reemah is 1st up over 1200m down the straight. Enough queries on rivals to go ew rebond for me. 4 – I will backing zayak, I always do, couldn’t tip him with confidence, but he is in good form, just not winning. Master of arts form read wells. 5 – supido should win. but I think klishina might be a good place bet at massive odds. Ran some very good races last prep, often outside of her ratings band, and her fresh and straight form is good, her best form is when in fast run 1000m races, she should get that here with bullpit in the field, and there are not too many 1000m specialists in this race, most are better over 1200m or longer. 9 – sure you can is ready to win. I was keen last time, but master of arts was too strong, and he has since won again. But 3rd and 4th from that race ran the quin last sat in ADL. Her 2000m form is very consistent, including wins at this trip and a very good run in the strong Matriach (G2 race won by Lucia Valentina). She has clear positive formlines over inishowen and should be much shorter than her. all 3 of her wins have come with james winks in the saddle (inc two this track). She is building up to a win this prep, and his looks a very suitable race to break though. I think she is overs at $9.50. ADL 4 – cant tip into messina nymph, but I will be backing her, last chance saloon. Probably retired if she flops. But she draws better this time and finds the front comfortably, and several better rivals just having a tune up to get ready for goodwood, she might pinch it, so along as I am gypsy doesn’t pressure her too much in mid stages. 5 – very keen miss gunpowder who has been set to peak for this day, just a matter of which race, and they take the easier option rather than the sangster, which is good placement. Rolled up to win last time, but edged last by the very talented don’t doubt mamma conceding her 1.5kgs. Against draws perfectly to sit in a controlling position, and sure to give a kick and hit the front at the 2000m. but she gets a nice weight drop, extra fitness, and hopefully not a swooper of calibre of don’t doubt mamma. Many factors in her favour this time. Not so warm on chances of secret agenda and super cash who have been up a long time and now present in their 3rd state for the prep at back end of campaign. SYD 4 – romantic maid very interesting runner from the roger james yard, and rodd takes the ride in his first sat back in Aust, for a trainer has had much success with. Out of former smart mare who the owners have retained to breed from, this is its first foal to race, and she could come right into QLD Oaks calcuations here if she runs well, and has already been heavily backed to win this, and also the QLD oaks. 6 – Index Linked has a very good record over 2000m on dry ground and suspect he goes Doomben Cup after this. very good run last start when 2nd to the highly touted Guardini and should be ready to show his best here 3rd from an ideal draw. Good ew bet at $10, despite the weight he concedes. Gold Coast 7 - Volkstockbarrel (VSB) seems generous price here. Had a super 3yo season where he was in the elite range, including a win over preferment at G1 level and 3rd in derby (a head behind hauraki). Down on form in the spring, but was tried at the elite level. Found winning form over summer in NZ. Much better suited here than in the Doncaster, far from disgraced, this is a big drop in class. As his saddlecloth 1 suggests, the WFA scale suits him. For a horse that has from 8 from 19 and 3 XG1 (placed in two others),and has form tying in with the fave, he seems very good value at $18, esp if you skew it the place 8 - Santa ana lane has very exposed form and several clashes with takedown. Both are good horses and stand out here, esp under the level weights. But the better barrier this time for santa sways me his way, esp with browne in the saddle. Good move engaging a local on this unique circuit.
Razzar
Guest
Looks almost speed to burn in the Sangster. That said, I'll be punting around value backmarkers. Precious gem freshend for back to 1200, and the wangoom winner Yesterday's. Songs franks her form 7/1 chance. Super Cash is always thereabouts, so luck in running can have her figure, if she gets a run. 12s or near that good odds. Wawail is likely to settle further back with very good speed here, but well freshened, so long shot chance. Griante is in the mix as the class runner. But taking anything under 7/1 in this race, to mine, is bad value. In the Hollindale, a little each way on Puccini at the big odds. She was luckless last start. Good luck punters
peeeko
Roar Guru
yes they can still have a carnival of course, you dont need a group 1 for a carnival even though the Goodwood, Cup and Derby should be G1. Brisbane has plenty of quality G1 races, especially the Straddy and 10,000. The Adelaide Oaks is lucky to be a listed race
Fiddlesticks
Guest
They aren't true group 1s and cheapens the others Adelaide oaks ? Cmon Keep the good wood and the Derby
Haradasun
Guest
Lets not have any group 1s outside sydney and melbourne while we are at it. Sure they arent the strongest races but adelaide brisbane and perth need a carnival period too
peeeko
Roar Guru
if i was on the committee, i wouldn't drop these 2 races to Group 2, i would go straight to group 3