Richmond vs Hawthorn: Friday Night Forecast

The Hawks face their bogey side on a Friday night, with a chance to remind the AFL universe who are the champions.

Equally, though, the Tigers might as well pack it in for this season if they cough up another four points. The stakes are high, and it’s only early May.

Richmond have won three of their last five against the Hawks, spread over the past five seasons, and have the league’s second-best percentage against the three-time premiers (98.1).

Yes, you are reading that correctly, the Hawks have been so consistently good that their second worst head-to-head match-up has a negative percentage in their last five. So while they’re colloquially known as Hawthorn’s bogey side, the reality is if you played these same games five times over and over again, the teams would split the ledger.

Still, there is something here. In their most recent encounter, Round 18 last year, the Tigers outmarked Hawthorn 110-64, in what was Hawthorn’s equal lowest tally of marks for the season. When Hawthorn get the game on their terms, they’re a kick-mark operation of the highest possible efficiency; Richmond didn’t let Hawthorn get the game on their terms.

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How? Very precise team defence – the sort of zoning structures through the middle of the ground that were the dominant strategy of the league last season. This is, for all intents and purposes, irrelevant for this game, for two reasons.

First, Richmond’s zone defence has collapsed this season. The Tigers are conceding 95 marks per game, compared to 83 last season, and opponents are kicking the ball more frequently (207 kicks per game against 191 in 2015). As a result, Richmond are conceding a diabolical 57.3 inside 50s per game, up over ten from last year – tied for the worst decline with Fremantle.

Is it a coincidence that both Richmond and Fremantle, two of the league’s heaviest users of tight midfield zone defensive schemes in 2015, have seen their inside 50 against counts surge in 2016? Perhaps, but likely not. The ten-metre rule is opening up space for sides with even average kicking abilities, and it is making it much harder to trap an opponent into a long kick down the line.

But second, and more importantly, Richmond’s players just aren’t equipped to play AFL football in this new world. The Roar‘s Cam Rose covered this in his piece on Richmond from a week or so ago. It was exposed for the world to see last Saturday, as the Tigers consistently, almost like clockwork, turned the ball over trying to exit their defence. Richmond’s play behind centre is what’s killing them in 2016.

It’s been called paralysis by analysis; Richmond, in their desire to emulate the football stylings of Hawthorn in 2014 and 2015, but with their own twist, have lost their ability to play with flair. And if there is one thing we’re learning in 2016, it’s that flair is football’s hottest commodity.

Still, the Hawks are wounded, and down on their all-conquering best from recent years. If the Tigers were playing with any semblance of confidence, this game could be considered relatively balanced. Instead, the Hawks are unbackable favourites, with a line set at near-enough to seven goals. Yikes.

The path to victory for Hawthorn is clear: make the most of Richmond’s over-matched back six with quick movement into the forward half of the ground. A forward line foursome of Jack Gunston, Luke Breust, Paul Puopolo and Cyril Rioli will mince the Tiger’s defenders with Alex Rance sitting on the sidelines. There are too many weapons for Richmond to stop, and if the ball gets inside Hawthorn’s forward 50 close to the 60ish times the Tigers have been conceding this year, the Hawks will score close to 20 goals.

Richmond’s chance is through the middle of the ground, where the trio of Dustin Martin, Brett Deledio and Shane Edwards – who slides up to take Cotchin’s role – could take advantage of Hawthorn’s out-of-form midfield group. The Hawks almost never win the contested possession battle comfortably, particularly against top eight sides, but they have lost it comfortably (-29, -32 and -21) in each of their past three losses against the Tigers.

Deledio, converted into a half forward in recent years to give the Tigers some spark, should be given more reps through the middle of the ground in this game, and perhaps even going forward in this season. As it stands, Richmond’s problem isn’t a lack of forward line skill – they’re around league average in scores per inside 50 and kicking accuracy – it’s everywhere else. Throwing Deledio on the ball more frequently could help Richmond get the ball down their end of the ground more frequently, and help keep the ball away from the opposition’s danger zone.

If the Tigers are able to exert some influence on the play out of the middle, and in general play stoppage situations, there is a chance that they can keep in this game for three quarters or more.

So, do the Hawks look to play a more negative style against Martin in particular, knowing full well that a break-even result in the clinches will probably see them home? That would help close any gap that exists between midfield groups, and crimp the influence of Richmond’s lone creative force in Martin.

There’s plenty of ifs and buts here, but when the market is this skewed in one direction, it is very rarely wrong. 2016 Hawthorn will have 2016 Richmond’s measure this evening, but the tote has leant too far in one direction – the line is set at seven goals, and I’ll back the Tigers to keep it within five.

A victory of greater magnitude to Hawthorn is in play, though, for the reasons we’ve discussed. On a Friday night, with the doubters in the punditry set closing in, and coming off of a loss where modern records were set against them, the stage is set for a Hawk-style execution. If Richmond start slow, this one could get ugly. Either way, a Tiger loss will all but end their finals ambitions this season.

That’s my Friday Night Forecast, what’s yours?