This shapes as a really interesting weekend of rugby. Round 11 has a bit of a ‘moving weekend’ feel about it.
There are two groups of teams that this applies to. The Crusaders are going to be there or thereabouts, but the three teams immediately behind them on the table – the Hurricanes, Bulls and Highlanders – have a good chance to put one over teams in and on the fringe of the top eight.
Below them, the Sharks, Brumbies, Waratahs and Blues all have a chance to remind the top eight teams they need to keep an eye over their shoulder.
Here’s the Round 11 talking points, with some help from Twitter.
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Is Super Rugby’s future Celtic?
I actually intended to write about this on Tuesday, but such has been the ever-changing world of the Brumbies of late, that yet another episode in the saga – the finale, PLEASE! – meant that this got bumped to today.
It goes back to articles in last weekend’s papers, around the Waratahs’ new CEO, Andrew Hore. The former Crusaders strength and conditioning coach when Super Rugby first kicked off, and most recently CEO of Welsh club Ospreys, gave a swag of interviews to Sydney media after his first week in the job, and he certainly didn’t miss the opportunity to lay out his grand ambitions for the game.
The one that really caught my eye was this:
“I think the SANZAAR CEOs and Celtic CEOs [Wales, Ireland and Scotland] have a real advantage here. Right now you have England and France who have said ‘right, we are going to use club rugby and international rugby to generate money,’ but what they have done is let the loonies run the loony bin. They’ve let the clubs get too big and strong,” he told Iain Payten in The Daily Telegraph.
“Let the two loony bins sail off into the sunset, and the other eight [I presume he’s including Argentina and Japan to get to eight] tier one nations can work on creating on something special that keeps international rugby as the pinnacle, and hopefully be able to generate more money from the provincial side as well.”
It’s an interesting thought. Hore’s idea would see South Africa join the Celts in one conference, and Australia and New Zealand – and presumably Argentina and Japan – joining up in a Pacific Rim conference. You would think there would also be scope in there to add an American conference, or at least North American teams to the PacRim conference.
Look, it’s an idea, and an idea not without logistical and seasonal challenges, but what do we think? Could Super Rugby dominating all other regions be one way to compete with the cashed-up French and English clubs?
Rise of the third bananas?
In trying to find a common point around the conferences this week, I came across this.
Right now, the three teams that perhaps loom as the most dangerous are the three teams occupying third place in their respective countries: the Hurricanes in New Zealand, the Waratahs in Australia, and the Bulls in a combined South African, Argentina and Japan group.
All three sides are enjoying a bit of a run: the Canes have won six of their last seven games with their only loss the one-point stonker with the Chiefs the other week; the Bulls haven’t lost since Round 1; and the Waratahs of the last fortnight are nothing like the Waratahs of the first eight rounds.
And all three look ripe to continue their run this week. I’m surprised that the Brumbies have over 60 per cent of more than 300 Crowd tipping responses as I write this, in a game that feels very winnable for the Bulls. The Waratahs shouldn’t have the slightest issue with the Cheetahs in Sydney, while the Hurricanes have more than three-quarters of the vote against the Sharks.
In terms of strike power, all three suddenly have it in abundance and are using it way better than most. But only the Hurricanes can’t climb to the second-highest branch in their tree this weekend; the Bulls and Tahs could in fact be leading their respective conferences by Sunday night.
Make or break week for the Blues
This weekend and next actually represent the proverbial ‘big week ahead’ for the Blues. In that group of teams sitting up to two wins back from the last trans-Tasman wildcard spot, the Blues’ equation is simple, if they have any designs on pinching a playoff spot.
Beat the Kings handsomely in Port Elizabeth on Sunday morning AEST and New Zealand time, so as to put the points differential back in the black, and then follow it up with a win next weekend over the Lions in Johannesburg.
Dead easy, you say! Well, funnily enough, the Blues have won six from nine at Ellis Park over the history of the competition, including three of the last four. And their last clash there was a thriller; a 39-36 loss in 2014.
And yes, you’d be quite right to say it’s a very different Blues side now to that one that enjoyed some success in the first decade of the competition. And it’s a very different Lions team now, too.
But that’s what it comes down too. Win both and the Blues remain in the hunt if other results fall their way. Lose just one of the two and it’ll become pretty difficult to rein in a three-win gap, especially with their last four games being against sides ranked in and around the top eight.
Will Steven Bradbury top the Australian conference? (From Mike Stanton on Twitter.)
It kind of has that feel about the Australian conference at the moment, and I did write in a comment to one of you on Tuesday that all the Brumbies had to worry about going forward was being less crap than the Waratahs and Rebels.
We all know form has been rather fleeting from the Australian teams. The Tahs looked done for in mid-April but have rocketed back into contention with two impressive wins. The Brumbies have looked more domesticated than wild and free over the last month or so, and the Rebels have been alternating wins and losses for six weeks.
The Australian conference is begging for a standout team and at the moment it’s anyone’s guess who finishes on top. The Brumbies have a nice run home, but the Waratahs have a game in hand and their most difficult games to come will be played on their home turf.
And I suspect if the Rebels are still in play by the June Tests, they’ll be getting rave reviews for knocking off the Brumbies and Chiefs.
Neutral referees: It’s happening
Following on from last week’s pondering that we might be starting to see neutral referees by stealth, three of the six ‘international’ matches in Round 11 have neutral refs in charge, and the New Zealand derby between the Chiefs and Highlanders sees Australian whistle-blower Angus Gardner in the middle.
That’s 19 of the last 40 international games with neutral referees, plus a handful of derbies with neutrals appointed, too.
I did say last week that it could be nothing, but now I think it’s definitely something. Neutral refs being appointed in nearly 50 per cent of international games – when it was only just one in three for the first five weeks – is well beyond coincidence now.
Muzzo
Guest
How true Allanthus, but there is also a lot of truth, mate, in the sad lack of sponsors, that the ARU's marketing team should be pursuing, but in saying that, the ARU's major sponsor, Qantas, could be, limiting that sort of exercise. Yeh, mate, so much different from home, in that respect.
Foley must go
Guest
The talking points should be Australia is in a coaching crisis; QLD has no coach WA have a hopeless coach ACT has a coach who has never been head coach before NSW has a Kiwi coach VIC actually has an experienced Aussie coach of average means 1/5 states has an experienced/proven Aus coach. Tell me this isn't a crisis. Looking at it a different way, when Aus teams have consistently gotten into the finals and it won; Mackenzie, McQueen and Cheika. ARU should be required to sign off on all State coach appointments against a requirements list which includes proven winner. This will stop this jobs for mates business which is ruining franchises -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
sheek
Roar Guru
Indeed Allanthus, These are interesting times. I've never seen so many examples of square pegs being smashed into round holes than these past few years. Amazing how the pursuit of money can distort so many minds.....
sheek
Roar Guru
I
sheek
Roar Guru
sheek
Roar Guru
Sigh..... In quadrum posita atrii per foramina. Putting square pegs into round holes.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Bit of a trap game for the Tahs, must get the job done against the Cheetahs tonight.
Doyle
Guest
I think the celtic thing is worth seriously thinking about. The North/South hemisphere split is an old fashioned model based on Rugby being a 'winter' game. The splits should be based on time zones - Africa/Europe, 'Pacific Rim' as you put it (NZ, Aus, Pacific Islands, Asia) and the Americas. Creating separate competitions or conferences structured in this way would better spread the big money players like South Africa, Japan, Europe and soon US. It would also open up the possiblity to play a global season. It's time to scrap the Super rugby format of covering half the globe as well as the North/South test seasons out of sync and introduce competitions that stay within a couple of time zones. One international window would also have the benefit of cancelling the pom excuse - 'June tests are at the end of the year, we're tired' and 'November tests are at the start of our season, we haven't gelled yet'
Akari
Roar Rookie
Probably playing for the Celtic clubs, Harry, as there'll be no place for most of them in the SA teams, except maybe the Kings. It'll still be good to have them 'back' where they should be.
Old Bugger
Guest
WNM Nothing wrong with a boring interpretation mate.....because, I tend to agree. And if indeed, France and England have sold their souls to the devil then, World Rugby needs to step up to the plate and help the rest of the world bodies, to bury these particular club competitions, once and for all. Why?? Simple really, if they want their own quadrennial tournament, to remain as the major competition played by and between, international teams. Friendly tests, like in football, just doesn't cut it for me.
Highlander
Guest
Looking to the Brumbies - Bulls game to give us some real idea on the relative strengths of the conferences. Should be a good one
John R
Guest
These are the number from the Australian article Allanthus referred to: Crow Attendance At the end of round 9, 301,978 Australians have attended Super Rugby matches. an increase of 25,000 when compared to this time last season. At this point in 2012 (following the last world cup) crown numbers were 397,921. So a decrease of 96k given a comparable lead in from a world cup. Pay TV Round 9 2016 = 2,960,129 Round 9 2015 = 2,352,000 Increase of 608k year on year This point 2012 = 3,513,000 Decrease of 553k 2012-2016 NZ Numbers TV 2016 = 4,451,900 2015 = 3,409,400 2012 = 5,078,900
Who Needs Melon
Roar Guru
Maybe I've missed some context but I read Andrew Hore's comments completely differently to the way you all seem to be interpreting it. Is he really suggesting some sort of merged competition or whatever? I don't think he's saying that at all. I read it as saying that France and England have basically sold their souls to the devil of the big bucks. They will create a lot of money out of what they're doing but they will also damage their own sides' quality - i.e. the quality of the French and English international teams will suffer. He's saying let us other nations "work on creating on something special that keeps international rugby as the pinnacle". To me that says that us other nations will ensure our national sides remain top quality so that international matches are still seen as the ultimate. And we'd do that by not following the club-rugby-is-all model of England and France. More boring interpretation I'm afraid but there you go.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
That's the difference isn't it with the other sides? Even if the ARU has its subsidy in place,every time the players get paid just for training and not playing, that's real money burning a real hole in Andrew Cox's pocket.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
Hey Muzzo Got your supplies in for the Kiwi's tonight? That's a pretty mean looking pack they got, not so sure about the backs though... Yeah, no doubt lack of FTA is a major impediment here, the ARU missed it's opportunity in the wake of the 2003 RWC to lock in some decent FTA coverage. Now its a numbers and $ game - the ARU needs the revenue from super rugby, which is linked to pay TV, to help grow interest in the game here. No FTA network is going to provide anything like the $ needed now, in fact I doubt the ARU could get live matches on even if they paid for it. It's an incredibly complex issue - when most sports fans in the nations 2nd biggest city can't even differentiate between rugby and rugby league, influential TV people included, then you can see what rugby is up against. Thus attaching to SANZAAR is understandable. But we also have to hope there is a real dividend from the investment in domestic rugby announced in the strategic plan - regardless of what happens or doesn't happen with FTA TV.
Brett McKay
Expert
yeah, I saw that one too, when looking for the first article. Interesting move from the Rebels, that they want the game as much about even the tiny bit of revenue it might earn, than for maintaining fitness..
Geoff Parkes
Expert
Yeah, so imagine how well we'd be travelling if the comp wasn't so confusing? Today's Australian actually addresses the next issue, which is the shut down of super rugby for the June tests. A couple of sides have a bye tacked on as well, so it does tear at the credibility of the comp to shut it down for a few weeks. It will be hard for the players and franchises, I'm sure everyone incl. fans will complain about it, but two things... 1. we'll all adjust and get on with it - after all we will still have top quality rugby each week to watch 2. it goes to the discussion above, it's a negative but a price to pay for the expansion and strengthening of super rugby for the long haul. I'm sure that as part of the growth, the eventual model which is settled on will properly take into account international windows. Again, that's the benefit of having a single body in charge representing all the nations - decisions will ultimately be made for the greater good.
Brett McKay
Expert
yeah, I've found the article, and there do appear to be genuine increases in NZ and Aus in terms of TV. Rob Clarke is quoted saying the numbers tend to fly in the face of the negativity at the start of the season, in which people were saying no-one would watch because the competition was too confusing..
Muzzo
Guest
Hi Allanthus. Mate I agree with what you have said, but in regards, to tv audience, especially here in Australia, I do believe that the game itself needs to have a lot more exposure, in the likes of, free to air tv. This would be massive, in the promotion of the game here.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
Yes, I think the crowds look and feel to be pretty consistent compared to last year and also this year from round to round. When you get to the data it might pay to check that they're not just adding on Japan and Argentina numbers to claim an overall increase. (the article did say that they had no TV figures for Argentina). Even though total audience is important for rights value, I guess we're also interested in year on year performance for Australia and New Zealand.