Two $500,000 Group 1s in different parts of the country greet us this week – the BTC Cup for sprinters at Doomben and the SA Derby for the young stayers at Morphettville.
The BTC Cup is the better race, given it has actual Group 1 performers in it, and the form out of it should proven strong through the Queensland winter. It’s a renowned roughie’s race, which means you can chance your arm with confidence on the punt.
The hardy Fell Swoop and gun three-year-old Japonisme are vying for favouritism at this stage.
Fell Swoop is now well and truly in the “deserves to win a Group 1” category. Before winning the Victory Stakes last start, his prep contained three terrific runs at Group 1 level, being beaten by a combined three lengths in the Oakleigh Plate, Galaxy and the TJ Smith which was his best run. He’s tough, honest and talented, and is getting better.
Dothraki has come through the same Group 1s as Fell Swoop, finishing in front of him in the Galaxy despite carrying 2.5kg’s more, but couldn’t match him at WFA in the TJ Smith. He’ll run well again.
Artlee wasn’t far behind Fell Swoop last start in the Victory, closing hard. Dothraki had his measure back in the spring also, so he’ll need to reach a considerable career peak to win, and appears unders.
Japonisme and his Waller stablemate Counterattack are the two three-year-olds in the race, always a dangerous age group at this time of year in WFA races.
They’ve met twice at level weights at level weights this season, both on soft tracks, with Japonisme holding sway each time, and the likely good ground is possibly more in his favour this time, as is the friendlier barrier three as opposed to Counterattack jumping from 11. They’re both good horses, but the market has their differential about right.
Delectation is the other Waller runner in the race, but hasn’t produced his best work this preparation. Two recent trial wins might be a sign that he’s ready to go now, and we know that his peak was capable of beating Chautauqua at WFA.
Malaguerra is a key chance off a month’s freshen after pilot error didn’t give him his best chance in the All Aged Stakes. His ability to quicken of a handy position will hold him in great stead here, and he’s looked a genuine Group 1 sprinter this prep.
Charlie Boy usually gives a good account of himself in the grades below this, and the freshen is always in his favour. Sacred Star always runs well when he comes back to Australia from NZ, and strikes as over the odds given his winning form.
Target in Sight has finished second behind Dothraki and Malaguerra in recent times, and was in the blanket finish in the Hallmark Stakes last time out with good horses, and ahead of Charlie Boy.
Liberation obviously lacks class. Two Blue is in form, but would need it genuinely wet to be a winning chance. Echo Gal did split Catkins and Bounding in the spring, and reproducing that run could see her run top five or six at big odds. Stratum Star is on the Doomben 10,000 and Stradbroke Trail, but will find some of these too fast.
Selections: 1.Japonisme 2.Fell Swoop 3.Malaguerra 4.Dothraki
The SA Derby should be a competitive race, with the favourites all coming in off different races.
The key lead-ups are usually the Chairman’s Handicap for the South Australians, and the VRC St Leger for the Vics, and both races have provided a handful of horses here.
Cool Chap took out the St Leger, and really hasn’t put a hoof wrong in a six start preparation. He looks a nice stayer in the making, and won convincingly over Etymology, Bullish Stock and Tuff Bickie to round out the top four, all represented here. Cool Chap had the best of the runs and won accordingly, but it wouldn’t surprise to see Etymology or Bullish Stock turn the tables.
The favourite in this event is Charlevoix for the Mick Kent stable, looking to double up after his Oaks win with Abbey Marie last week. He races his young stayers fresh, and usually gets the reward for it.
Charlevoix toyed with the likes of Cool Chap, Bullish Stock and Tuff Bickie in the Galilee Series Final, and those three finished in the same order behind him as they did in the St Leger. The form looks true.
Howard Be Thy Name won the Chairman’s well for Darren Weir, his third win on end, and is yet to run a bad race. The extra distance shouldn’t be a problem, but not many horses do the double.
Royal Rumble and Manhattan Boss filled up the trifecta behind Howard Be Thy Name, and face a tough ask to turn the tables. Mail It In looks like he’s searching for 4000m.
Godolphin’s Tarquin comes in off a different formline to the others, sent to Melbourne after failing in the early Sydney races. He beat older horses soundly last start, which is always a good sign.
Three fillies are backing up from the Oaks last week, and all ran solidly without really threatening the winner or screaming “back me” next start. First Impressions is probably the big overs of the trio, given how far back she got. Sacred Eye may benefit as she was a month between runs. Arcadia Dream has a touch of quality. In short, it wouldn’t surprise if any of them won.
Of the bolters, Ascot Red for John Sargeant should be paid respect given that he’s picked up Group 1 Oaks in Sydney, Victoria and Queensland in the last few years, so knows how to get a three year-old to take quick leaps from very restricted grade.
Selections: 1.Charlevoix 2.Tarquin 3.Cool Chap 4.Ascot Red
Razzar
Guest
Update on % for adel r6 ; percentage only tightened 4% into 126, so this market has room to ease more about $1 per runner. to around 116%.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
I"m a fan of both Charlevoix and Cool Chap. Already had a spec bet on both in the Cups. Either would need to win today to have a hope in the Spring
Scuba
Guest
The problem with Delectation is that he's proven at Group 1 level down the straight at Flemington. Take away his runs there and his form reads like a G2/G3 horse at best.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
I disagree slightly with your assessment of Charlie Boy Cameron. He was only just beaten in last years 10000. I think he is up to winning, just a matter of whether he can be close enough in the run over the 1200m. I thought Arcadia Dream was a better run than First Impressions last week. The Bar Plates still on her is what worries me. Very surprised they went on her last week. If she has feet issues why is she there?
Art Vandelay
Guest
Being not confident on much in this race, Delectation at 14 bucks looks like some serious value. Proven at G1 and can race fresh. Fell Swoop's last start hasn't convinced me enough to take the odds on offer. Could see this following the trend of the race of the smokys, which is both great/frustrating.
Aransan
Guest
Markets even tighten over the half hour before a race. I sometimes wonder if an ungenerous market near the jump means a particular horse is effectively running for the bookies -- I don't mean anything untoward, just that they are punting like us.
Cameron Rose
Expert
A nice array of tips Razzar. There are often some nice overs when they first put the markets up, but it's rare for them to last more than 24 hours. Fixed odds betting on Friday for Saturday races, when the odds have been up for two days, isn't something I indulge in too often.
Razzar
Guest
I like the bm 90 race there Saturday. No 5 Illustrious lad appears a good chance, has been up a while, but still going well, looks around a 11/2 chance. No 7 Couldn't agree more, is another competitor that has form to win this. 10/1 rating. No 10 Duke of Brunswick is fresh, so another chance that has good Victorian form 10/1 rating. No 13 Northam Zhar ticks a truckload of boxes here, 3rd up, up to 1200, dropping in class, will sit behind nice speed. Williams to steer. Just might have the X factor to just power to the line. 7/2 rating. Just a note punters. If you don't know already . Most fixed Early markets are are set around 130% . So taking odds offered then will often be much shorter than they jump at. I'd say the Corporates don't wont to be caught out by some inside info, so they set greater cushioning as a bit of insurance. But like anything if great odds of decent Overs appear, then it's logical to Get On. Good luck punters