The West Coast Eagles are the only team in the AFL with a signature play. The play, the precision of it, says more about the Eagles than meets the eye.
You know the one I’m talking about. The Nic Natanui centre bounce hit out to a bullocking Luke Shuey, who delivers the ball to Josh Kennedy lace out on a lead. This one.
It is premium grade footballing joy in a jar. The Eagles run this play frequently, but without much predictability. It shows what can happen when three cogs are moving together with absolute precision. It’s dynamic, and hard to stop.
But it says more about the Eagles than how good they can be, or how good they are; it’s also a sign of their weakness.
There has been a lot of talk about West Coast’s record away from home over the past couple of weeks, and the dreaded ‘flat track bully’ tag has once again been sewn on to the back of their delicious royal blue and yellow jumpers. The Eagles have lost all three of their games away from the comfort of Subiaco Oval in 2016, taking their away record under Adam Simpson to 12 from 25, or 48 per cent.
It carries over to the team’s percentage: 207 at home compared to 59 away this year, and a more measured, but still skewed, 163 versus 105 in the team’s 52 home and away games with Simpson at the helm. Meanwhile the Eagles have won just two of 12 games away against top eight sides in the respective year of the game.
So it follows that the Eagles are flat track bullies. But wait, how has the rest of the competition gone on those metrics over this time?
| Percentage | Percentage | Win% | Win% | Top 8 Away | Top 8 Away | |
| Home | Away | Home | Away | Wins | Losses | |
| Adelaide | 125.8% | 104.7% | 64.0% | 46.2% | 0 | 11 |
| Brisbane Lions | 77.4% | 58.6% | 26.9% | 19.2% | 0 | 14 |
| Carlton | 83.7% | 71.4% | 38.5% | 19.2% | 0 | 12 |
| Collingwood | 90.9% | 107.2% | 42.3% | 50.0% | 2 | 8 |
| Essendon | 88.8% | 78.9% | 44.0% | 29.6% | 2 | 11 |
| Fremantle | 131.4% | 98.8% | 76.0% | 51.9% | 5 | 11 |
| Geelong | 132.6% | 98.1% | 80.8% | 56.0% | 3 | 9 |
| Gold Coast | 97.2% | 69.6% | 46.2% | 19.2% | 1 | 11 |
| Greater Western Sydney | 106.3% | 84.7% | 57.7% | 30.8% | 0 | 10 |
| Hawthorn | 161.2% | 124.1% | 88.5% | 61.5% | 7 | 7 |
| Melbourne | 71.6% | 85.5% | 23.1% | 34.6% | 3 | 8 |
| North Melbourne | 116.6% | 109.7% | 73.1% | 61.5% | 2 | 4 |
| Port Adelaide | 135.2% | 99.0% | 69.2% | 46.2% | 3 | 9 |
| Richmond | 98.5% | 115.0% | 51.9% | 60.0% | 4 | 6 |
| StKilda | 74.7% | 66.5% | 19.2% | 26.9% | 2 | 11 |
| Sydney | 136.0% | 137.2% | 76.9% | 73.1% | 5 | 4 |
| WCE | 163.0% | 105.6% | 74.1% | 48.0% | 2 | 10 |
| Western Bulldogs | 116.1% | 90.0% | 57.7% | 46.2% | 3 | 8 |
How about that, hey? Almost every AFL team, and certainly teams from outside of Victoria, have a better record at home than they do away, have a better percentage at home than they do away, and have struggled to beat top eight teams away from home. The whole competition are a bunch of flat track bullies.
We can nit-pick these numbers – West Coast might be one of the biggest flat track bullies in the league, as evidenced by their percentage – but that debate has been done to death.
Instead, I want to change tack.
The Eagles might be flat track bullies, but they are most certainly front runners.
Under Adam Simpson’s reign, the Eagles have had one of the worst records for coming back from deficits. West Coast have found themselves trailing at three quarter time on 16 occasions since the start of the 2014 season, and have won just once. Their winning percentage of 6.3 per cent in those situations is 14th in the league, ahead of just Melbourne, Brisbane, St Kilda and Gold Coast, who have 15th, equal 17th, and 14th-ranked winning percentages over this stretch.
When the Eagles are clicking, and get on top of their opponent, they are ruthless in their execution. But when the going gets a little tougher, and their opponent is able to wrest the momentum, West Coast find it hard to stay in the game. Most teams do, but for West Coast the impact is, according to the wins and losses on the board, more significant.
Does this suggest anything about their style of play? It is hard to say definitively from these numbers, but I think it does, particularly in attack. The Eagles employ one of the most threatening attacking sets in the league, but many players rely on the ball being delivered to advantage in order to score. Their two regular small forwards, Jamie Cripps and Josh Hill, are ranked 100th and 114th out of 122 for contested possession wins for players that have kicked at least a goal a game in 2016.
Outside of Andrew Gaff and Matt Priddis, who always get a lot of touches, many of the side’s midfield are prone to fading into states of ineffectiveness for stretches of games.
Down back, the man-zone defensive mechanism relies so heavily on the team having time to set up their grid. When the midfield isn’t winning the ball, that time is reduced and the Eagles are prone to conceding territory and scores. The stats on this exist, but are very hard to pull together for such a short piece so take my word for it as a sad person that watches every Eagles game (#freethestats).
But when it works, you get plays like the one above. And you get Josh Kennedy kicking five goals in a quarter, and coming close to breaking the all-time record for AFL ratings points earned in a single 20-minute period. And you get periods like half way through the third quarter against Geelong in Round 7, when the Eagles slammed on 32 points to nothing in eight minutes of game time.
In short, you get footballing joy.
There is nothing wrong with this prima facie, because as we saw last year West Coast’s best is good enough to carry them to the last game of the year.
But this year, it all might not click in the same way that it did in 2015. Is it going to be enough to see them return to the pointy end of September? On the evidence we’ve seen over Simpson’s tenure, at this stage you would lean on the side of caution. As Geelong showed a couple of weeks ago, starve the Eagles of territory and possession and the curtains close. The recipe is there for everyone to see, and the best teams in the competition will cook with it.
That’s where the ‘flat track’ waters get a little muddy. Last year, the Eagles played three of the eventual bottom four away from home, as well as a cavalcade of middling teams interspersed with some bottom half of the eight sides. This year, they’ve played Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong, and have the Dogs, Giants, and Crows to come – chalk meets cheese.
West Coast are almost certainly going to make it to September this year by virtue of their home ground advantage alone, where they’re likely to run the slate until a Round 22 match up against Hawthorn – who we’re assuming will be in boss mode by then.
They get a chance to get the ridiculous bully monkey off of their back against a depleted Port Adelaide this weekend. Ruckman Nic Naitanui is almost certainly going to rip the spine out of the poor sap who has been sacrificed by Port to play ruck as their stocks run dry. Port Adelaide’s smaller defensive set, which worked great until it didn’t over the weekend, should be no match for West Coast’s weaponry. An away win looks prospective.
But until the Eagles can prove they’re able to wrest back momentum, and win a game that isn’t being played on their terms, it’s hard to hold much confidence that a premiership win is imminent.
jax
Guest
The reality is that WC have not turned up to play four quarter footy between R1-7 with too many players sitting back and waiting for someone else to win the contested ball. Simmo addressed this unacceptable reality after the Cats loss by training the players in tough one on one contested drills all week. It has borne fruit in R8 and 9 as WC is once again fighting to win the hard ball. The game against Port was as contested as it gets and WC lead fairly comfortably all day. If they can keep that mindset they will do a lot better than they have been. They weren't hungry, let's hope they have their appetite back. The Pies proved that the Cats are just as vulnerable as any other team when space is closed and pressure is applied to the ball carrier by all 22 players. It's not rocket science but you do need buy-in from everyone and that's what has been missing. While the follow doesn't fully explain WC's inconsistency I believe it highlights a flaw in Simmo's coaching philosophy. He is all about versatility and I understand why but he takes it too far IMO. Last week he admitted that he has not played LeCras as a dedicated forward since he arrived at the club. Against the Saints he did it for the first time and Lecca kicked 6 goals straight. He's done the same with Yeo. It's almost time for WC to bring in Barrass or Cole and play Gov as a forward and leave Lecca as a permanent forward. Thank you for a pretty fair and objective piece Ryan.
David
Roar Rookie
I think I spoke too soon: a no-travel game for Geelong, losing to a bottom 8 side...unpredictable!
Nifty
Guest
Sorry bill can't agree ,this guy was on the elite level as far as fullbacks go ,he's just had a major knee recon ,cut him some slack he needs to get match fitness and ball skills back to afl level ,he's not gonna get that playing got east perth ,his stats will improve in time for finals Anyway that's not the Eagles problem ATM anyway their midfield was getting thumped and the teams intensity was well below par ,it proved last week but this week will be a test ,they gotta be more consistent ,have a look at that team on paper ,if we can't beat good teams now ,wait till we get an injury
Bill
Guest
I 100% agree with this comment. The main player of course is Eric Mckenzie, Jesus he is bad, I get that he was b&f before he did his knee but the game, and more specifically the game-plan of the Eagles has gone past him. Besides his ball skills aren't up to scratch and players are waiting in the wings for a game. Play the youngsters down back before they go home to Victoria, giver Eric Mckenzie the flick I say
bryan
Guest
Im afraid Simmo is starting to take on some of Wooshas traits.The worst one being the refusal to recognise that certain players arnt up to it.Its all very well to stand by your players and give them plenty of chances but how many hidings do we have to sit through before you realise some players cant handle the aggressive mindset that the better sides bring to the table.If you were an opposition coach you would look at the Eagles and think "tag priddis; he'll try hard but hes slow as a wet week; tag Shuey,he doesnt like it [ admittedly improving ] and crowd Kennedy!! . Game over!! We have a soft game versus the Saints and theres no changes other than Butler coming back.Why didnt we play Cole?? Give him a debut in a winnable confidence booster? Nope stick with the same mob ala Ross Lyon.Its very hard to look at guys like Lecras,Hill,Cripps etc who blitz at Domain then go away and dont fire a shot.Simmo the side you appear to be resting your laurels on is just not good enough.Im glad hes stuck with Lycett and Duggan because they have been good for us.We miss Dom Sheed in the guts,and i never thought id say it but we need Browns aggression.I find it very hard now to get any enjoyment out of pounding the Saints of this world as all i can think is where were you last week ? Flat track bullies indeed!!
Lroy
Guest
@Carl Spackler ..if you want to make libelous claims about performance enhancing drugs why dont you put up your evidence or shut up?? As for the state team thing, this has been dis-proven so many times I can believe this fairytale still gets oxygen. 17 of the states best players were signed by Victorian clubs before West Coast were able to negotiate with them... here is the WA lineup against Victoria from 86... Only Wilson and Dwayne Lamb were playing for the Eagles in 1992... most of the premiership side of 92 were barely playing colts footy in 86. B: Brad Hardie Geoff Miles Shane Ellis HB: Dean Laidley Ross Glendinning Rod Lester-Smith C: Peter Davidson Leon Baker Phil Narkle HF: Gary Buckenara Peter Satori Andrew Macnish F: Peter Wilson Brian Peake (c) Maurice Rioli R: Laurie Keene Dwayne Lamb Michael Mitchell INT: Wayne Blackwell Paul Harding Colin Waterson Mark Bairstow So the facts confirm you are talking nonsense.
spruiker
Guest
The marsh boys and a tray of Coke Paul D? I presume you have sound evidence of this and if so I would love to hear it if not you shouldn't even suggest that rubbish! -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Sami
Roar Rookie
Yeah as long as you disregard just about everyone who had then going one better than last year in the preseason.
Kavvy
Guest
Except noone really rates them. So your comment doesn't make sense. Everyone in the footy pundit world would say they'd be a bigger chance to miss finals than win the flag. So to David's question, who rates them?
Nolzie
Guest
Might as well call it an Eagles, Hawthorn or Collinwood flag if Carlton win one. The amount of money those three teams give to prop up a bunch of businesses that can't run themselves.
David
Roar Rookie
No argument from me. Ryan's article covers that too. When they're behind the 8 ball, WC struggle to regain any ascendancy. Thankfully, we're only eight rounds in. Time enough to rectify. Your boys are looking the goods though
Sami
Roar Rookie
I didn't say anything about home versus away. It's not just wins and losses it's the difference between 66 points average winning margin and 43 point average losing margin. The only clubs with close to that gulf is Port and Collingwood, two other teams going nowhere. It's okay to lose to good teams, especially away, if you are competitive. WC isn't, not when they lose by a 43 point average.
David
Roar Rookie
...and speaking of missing-the-eight vs winning-the-premiership, those who make money off predicting such outcomes (ie bookies) have WC, GEE, SYD, NM, HAW all at $13 to miss finals, while suggesting WC are equal fourth likely to win it ($7.50, along with NM & GWS). But if you've got better odds, we can talk turkey!
David
Roar Rookie
Sami, no one's disputing the fact that WC have beaten poor sides at home and lost to good ones away. Rather than say "all they have shown...", have a read of Ryan's article - he's attempting to make sense of it all, rather than just stating their Win/Loss record for the year.
Sami
Roar Rookie
The Eagles have a much better chance of missing the eight entirely than they do winning the flag this year. All they have shown this year is they can beat up on weak sides while being 5 goals off the pace of the real contenders.
David
Roar Rookie
Oh Sami. Who rates the Eagles? Is it the media? Their/Opposition Supporters? Their own management? All of the above? Some of the above? Either way, I can see no causal link between how a team is rated, and how they perform on the field. If you're suggesting that the best way for West Coast to win away from home (or indeed come from behind), is for the media/supporters to lower their expectations of the team, then you probably need to examine the game a little more closely.
Sami
Roar Rookie
It all boils down to this: the Eagles are overrated.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I can only assume their poor attitude is a WA thing – they’re treated like royalty over there, the only show in town. Witness the Scorchers players with the cricket, there was a time before Langer showed up you couldn’t keep the Marsh boys out of a tray of coke with a taser. Hard to convince yourself it’s necessary to run through walls to win a flag when their players have already got a sweet deal without having to really stretch themselves at all.
Carl Spackler
Guest
The Blues will win another flag before West Coast does. The only reason they won that 3rd flag was all their players were juicing. As for their first two in the earl 90s, they fielded the de-facto West Australia state team and got Geelong on the big day who were the world's greatest chokers back then. West Coast needs to change a lot before I'd rate them again.
Rod
Guest
The ruck "infringements" were also a factor in that first quarter of the Tigers game. You watch the tapes, Freo mids were streaming down to the forward line, backs coming up and then the whistle blows. Too late, ball is already heading in to a depleted backline unchecked. Freo were doing it everywhere, but Fyfe did get heavily tagged in the centre later in the season and the game plan unravelled a bit. It still worked in stoppage setups from time to time, but those blistering starts faded throughout the year. The point was this signature move by West Coast is just a copy of what Freo was doing last year. And how it can also be counteracted easily.