Before the trading period Geelong were paying $17 for the flag. More recently, they’re paying $4. The only other shortening of the odds that compares this year is in the preferred Prime Minister polls.
The loss to Collingwood may have highlighted some vulnerabilities, but it also highlighted strengths. After being blown away in the first quarter, the Cats fought back hard. They ended up with 54 inside 50s to Collingwood’s 46, and 17 marks inside 50 to Collingwood’s 10. They did this with almost 30 fewer possessions.
However, after quarter time the Cats kicked 11.11 to the Woods’ 9.3. It was a case study of Geelong’s strengths and weaknesses.
There’s tremendous marking power across the ground for Geelong, which means when they win the ball – which they do often – they can make it count. They average 375 possessions for 58 inside 50s per match, so they’re going forward at better than every six-and-a-half touches (6.46). North do it every 6.88 touches, GWS every 6.93. Sydney at 6.36. What is more impressive is that the Cats manage 17 marks inside 50 per game, one for every 3.4 forward thrusts.
The Cats’ contested marking power means even when the opposition shut down the space and force players to kick to a contest, Geelong players can back their teammates. Averaging 17 marks inside 50 per game says it all, well, almost all.
The trouble begins in front of goal. As the old saying goes – it’s the economy, stupid. This season Geelong has kicked 139.131, a success rate of 51.48 per cent. Even in the zero-pressure romp against Gold Coast, the Cats managed goal kicking efficiency of less than 59 per cent.
Since the Round 1 win against Hawthorn, and ignoring the statistically negligible number of rushed behinds, Geelong has been kicking for goal at worse than half-rate with 121.123.
North Melbourne has kicked as many goals as Geelong this season – 139 – but just 107 behinds, 24 fewer wasted chances than the Cats. So they’re kicking at 56.5 per cent.
Greater Western Sydney has kicked 149.118, at 55.8 per cent. If Geelong had scored goals at that rate, they’d have 150 for the year to date – and would likely be 8-1.
Since their Round 1 loss to Melbourne, the Giants have kicked at better than 58 per cent. Geelong in the same period? 49.5 per cent.
The other worrying tendency for Geelong are the lapses that have cost them two matches so far. Against the Cats allowed GWS to race out to an eight-goal lead in Round 2 before pulling back to within 7 points, ultimately losing by 13. Against Collingwood they cut a 44-point lead down to 7 points before losing by four goals.
They lost the first quarter against Port five goals to one, and the third term against Hawthorn five goals to none – but won both games comfortably in the end. The Eagles slotted 5.2 in about eight minutes before Geelong regained control and romped home.
Once again this, weirdly enough, also demonstrates a certain strength – Geelong have been challenged several times and shown the nerve and character to step up. If they can iron the lapses out of their game, they could be unstoppable.
The Cats’ 152 marks inside 50 from just nine matches is a ridiculous and potentially terrifying stat. In the fine September weather, their Land of the Giants forward line should stretch any defence, but it won’t serve them well unless they nail down the fundamental art of kicking the ball between the big sticks.
hal
Guest
Geelong are taking advantage of the 10 meter rule so they are often kicking for goal from the pockets and what also occurs is that when the opposition can get one back they automatically go to Hawkins, thus freeing up other players. Once we nail our accuracy the Cats will be extremely hard to beat.
geoff
Guest
Stevie J is much loved by everyone associated with the cats and the fact is he would be at the cats if it not for the ruthless way in which clubs need to turn over players. Geelong has 3 players who were waiting in the wings of stevie j. (Cockatoo menzel McCarthy ). So the alternative is get rid of a 20yr old to keep stevie. Geelong have to think long term and cutting him one year too early or late is neither here nor there. Also stevie j was ordinary last year. This year he is nothing short of brilliant. Good luck to him.
Bobby
Guest
Yet he is still trolling you. Just ignore him brother! Up the cats
Cat
Roar Guru
Well said JohnDee.
JohnDee
Guest
Stevie J was given all of the creative license you could possibly give a player. His party tricks, for a long, long time, would work out the majority of the time and he come out looking like a genius, and would rarely result in turnovers. Last year, this seemed to completely reverse, and it was extremely frustrating as a fan to watch. He looked done. It was almost as if he was TOO comfortable in the side, and either attempting kicks that just weren't there, or blatantly turning the ball over due to inaccurate kicking. That has nothing to do with the way the club treated him. Did you watch him every week last year in the hoops? I sure as hell did, and I was not at all surprised when the Cats decided to cut ties. Most champion players probably don't want to retire, and the majority of the time at Stevie J's age, it's rare that they turn their form around. The club played the percentages, and I don't imagine he would be turning in these performances if he was still with the Cats. Unfortunately that's the nature of the game.
Cat
Roar Guru
Well there is no point in continuing this conversation, you have shown you have no idea what you are talking about regarding the Cats.
Robert Keessen
Guest
Yeah, funny how he seems to know where the big sticks are now though. Steve J wasn't the problem. The way Geelong FC treated him was.
Robert
Guest
Yeah I can understand your point on Chappy, but this has no relevance to Steve J. He is a champion and can turn a game on his own, and he still has it in him. The best trade bait now is Hawkins. Ive watched him in a few games now, and the most valuer he provides to the team is running around congratulating everyone else in the team when they kick the goals, and of course watching for himself on the replay screen. The ritual sacking of Steve J was a bad mistake. But the cats and their supporters are still in denial about it so I suppose it wont sink in until the Giants beat them in a final.
Cat
Roar Guru
Chapman was spent, he had 5 good games for Essendon then did nothing the remaining 18 months he was on their list. Chappy kicked 9 goals in his first 3 games with the Bombers, that's what most people think about, but few remember that he only managed 13 goals in 17 games the rest of that season and in the second year of his bombers contract managed 8 goals in the 9 games he could get a game. Champion bloke, love everything he did for the team but every players time comes to an end. He was offered a one year deal from the Cats, the Cats would only guarantee his spot in the seniors for 8 games (his form would have to be good enough to get more). That was not enough for Chappy, he asked to be traded and the team gave him his wish. In hindsight the one year offer with 8 guaranteed, looks generous considering his limited output.
Giddy
Guest
Couldn't agree more Rob. I've been telling anyone that'll listen the same thing. Guns are always guns and are too often dropped before there time, simply due to not performing to their own lofty standards. Stevie j is still a top 10 player in any team in the comp. I couldn't believe it when Geelong dropped Chapman when they were still a premiership chance. Cost them a spot in the GF in my view. I don't know all the ins and outs so if some cats fans can shed some more light on that for me I'll listen. Stevie wouldn't be taking Menzels spot he'd be taking the 22nd best players spot. He can still play multiple positions. Don't know if it was a salary cap thing. Im pretty sure Geelong will finish top 2 this year and have another good crack but it's gonna sting like hell if they lose to GWS in the finals
Momentbymoment
Guest
A number of teams have focused on aerobic fitness (Dogs, Swans, Hawks, GWS) to deal with the new rotations. Others (North, Adelaide, Geelong, West Coast) have gone for strong, large bodies. I wonder if this will effect how the season plays out.
Cat
Roar Guru
Yeah cause Stevie J's last game as a Cat he kicked 2.6 on the day ... I'm sure that would have helped so much *eye roll*
brian
Guest
Well of course but its early. You haven't played dogs, north or sydney and you lost to gws. They beat hawthorn but it was round 1 and west coast at home. I dont think it will cost you a game until finals. As for poor kicking at goal well its part of the game just like it was in 2008. Doesnt help that you got rid of stevie j.
Robert
Guest
Yeah but other clubs seem to be able to turn around a players fortune or attitude without resorting to selling them off. Switching clubs is not the only way of turning him around. I would say putting him on the trade table should be the last option, not the first. It shows the underlying culture of the club is pretty mercenary. Soon the others within the club are going to be thinking they are next. They won't be supported, but will just get the boot. Anyway, I am not unhappy with that. The Cats no longer have the x-factor they need to win a GF. Perhaps they will learn from the experience that money and trades don't make a champion team, culture does.
Gecko
Guest
But some teams have 4 A-graders instead of 2. The Bulldogs have Libber, Wallis, Dalhaus and the Bont. GWS have Shiels, Ward and Scully (some would add Griffen and Coniglio). North have Wells, Ziebell, and Swallow (some would add veterans Harvey and Del Santo). I agree with Tom about Geelong's current dependence on Selwood and Dangerfield, though there are a few who could soon step up. Duncan and Motlop will always be up and down but Caddie, Blicavs or Guthrie may, later in 2016 or in 2017, add more reliability to Geelong's midfield.
Don Freo
Guest
The answer there, Tom, is that while Collingwood might be in the bottom 8, they may well be a top 8 side. They were impressive.
Cat
Roar Guru
For all the rhetoric about Geelong's 'too tall, too slow' side, no one can point to a single game yet that height or speed actually cost us a game. The Essendon game is a poor example, we held them to 42 points (which you may say it's just Essendon, but no other team that has played them has held them to a lower score) and kicked 18 behinds on the day and still beat them by 5 goals. We should have played better, yes, but Essendon were never a chance in that game. Collingwood we didn't get beaten by pace, we just got beaten on the day, full stop. Not going to make excuses, we weren't good enough.
Cat
Roar Guru
Yeah sorry but the twice yearly being suspended for absolutely stupid crap and the unnecessary party tricks that he can no longer pull off was quite enough reasons to move him on. The fact that he hasn't done any of that since going to GWS just shows he needed the change too. Both teams have come out winners.
Sami
Roar Rookie
Absolute rubbish. Steve j being moved on just had to happen. It is a classic win win for both sides. Menzel needs to play and if Steve was still at the Cats he wouldn't be getting game time. The Cats also need to move on a few older players every year, some times it's tough but for the teams sake it has to be done. Can't afford to have too many go at the same time. Lonergan, Enright, Bartel are already possibilities to be done after this year, adding Stevie would just make it worse.
JohnDee
Guest
Stevie J last year looked done. It's easy to say it hurt them in hindsight, but If he had have stayed on board at the Cattery I would imagine he would likely be currently playing in the reserves. The trade to GWS appears to have freshened him up and reignited the fire within.