Five years ago, the idea that a team could win an NBA Championship while relying on their outside shooting was outlandish. Scoring inside won playoff series. Dominating in the paint was what mattered most.
The Golden State Warriors put that idea to bed when they won the NBA Finals in 2015, bombing away from outside on their way to the franchise’s first championship since 1974-75.
Of all teams in last year’s playoffs, the Warriors were the most shot-happy from deep, with 36.2 per cent of their field goals coming from distance.
For some perspective, the percentage of three-point field goals attempted in the playoffs for the previous five champions were: 26.7 (San Antonio, 2014); 26.4 (Miami, 2013); 25.8 (Miami, 2012); 29.7 (Dallas, 2011); and 25.5 (Los Angeles, 2010).
Golden State’s group of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green – a selection of three-point shooters ranging from reliable to unfairly awesome – had proved just how valuable the three-point shot could be.
To make an over-dramatic cliche of it, they changed the game.
But despite the Warriors’ offensive brilliance, the defending champions are now staring down the barrel of a playoff exit at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
While Golden State revel in the play of their aforementioned small-ball line-up, OKC have a towering frontcourt rotation of Serge Ibaka, Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. The Thunder like to shoot the three but their strength comes from their rebounding.
No side rebounded the ball better in 2015-16 than OKC, who averaged 48.6 rebounds per game during the regular season. For the Western Conference Finals against the Warriors, it’s improved slightly to reach 49 per game.
Golden State, on the other hand, have regressed in the area they so excelled in during the regular season, their three-point percentage dropping from 41.6 to 35.5 in the series against the Thunder.
This is what the nay-sayers of yesteryear would always point to when criticising the effectiveness of three-point shooting. It might work during the regular season, but the playoffs are a different beast entirely. The game slows down, defence tightens up, and players miss more shots.
Pushing the ball inside limits that shooting drop-off and also allows a team to rebound their own misses with greater frequency. You don’t get many rebounds at the three-point line.
Admittedly, 35.5 per cent is still a very respectable clip from range. What’s causing the Warriors all their trouble is how their smaller line-up has struggled to rebound the ball. Golden State were the fourth-best rebounding team during the regular season. Against the Thunder, they’ve been dominated on the glass, pulling down, on average, 7.2 fewer rebounds than their opponents.
That includes their Game 2 win, when the Warriors out-rebounded the Thunder 45 to 36.
Most of the team stats from the Western Conference Finals have Golden State and OKC neck-and-neck. Field goal percentage is close (45.6 to 44.3 respectively), and three-point percentage is even closer (35.2 to 35.5). Assists (22 to 21.5) and turnovers (14.5 to 15.3) tell a similar tale.
Yet OKC are dominating this series, just as they are the glass. They’re averaging seven more rebounds per game than the Warriors and are one game away from a trip to the NBA Finals.
For all that basketball has changed in the past decade, for all the importance the three-point shot has gained, the old idea that rebounding will win you more games than not still rings true.
GregT
Guest
About time Kerr stopped playing the small ball for most of the game. In felt whilst bogut didn't play that well he helped keep gsw in it until the end. Come one Kerr continue trust your big guys.
Squidward
Roar Rookie
Also any coincidence that the 3 games of the raptor series that Cleveland have thumped it were the 3 games they went to the paint for all their points
Swampy
Guest
Sometimes when Westbrook takes off you think a wormhole might appear at any moment as rips through the space/time continuum
bexdog
Guest
Marcus Smart
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
Chris Paul and Avery Bradley are probably the two best bets in terms of guards, and Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James are capable of matching up with just about anyone and slowing them down. But in short, no. I can't think of a player with the speed and defensive ability to stop Westbrook when he's in one of his destructive moods.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Agree Daniel about GSW having to 'split their defensive attention' between KD and Westbrook, thus allowing Westbrook more opportunity. But what I really meant when asking my question...' is there anyone in the league that can defend his explosive offence?' is he has some serious hop after taking you off with his first step. Rose from the Bulls had it, the Beard (ironically) has it except he beats you with a up and down tempo of speed, followed by sheer brute strength. Westbrook for mine is pretty much unstoppable if he wants to take it to the rack... he can score on you, or dish it to someone else... a la KD :)
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
The only person who has ever been able to stop Russell Westbrook is Russell Westbrook. Whether it was bad shot selection or a lack of passing, he has always been capable of hobbling his side. He's still capable of coach-killing plays, but it seems as if Donovan has found a way to get the best out of him. I also don't think we can write off the impact of Kevin Durant. He's going at close to 30ppg and is demanding that Golden State split their defensive attention between the two stars. Westbrook wouldn't be half as effective if the Warriors could focus solely on him. As for Curry, there's no way he'd be fully-fit - no-one is at this time of year. Missing those two weeks with the MCL meant he would have lost a fair bit of fitness, but, more importantly, I think the two injuries have taken away some of his agility. Being swarmed by Thunder defenders doesn't help either.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Daniel thanks for an excellent read on what is turning out to be a very interesting, albeit bizarre Western Conf. Final series. And I agree with Swampy and yourself that Westbrook has been huge... last game a 30.10.10. And further is there anyone in the league that can defend against his explosive offence? What has struck me is that OKC have under-achieved for many a season... until now. And now they have players that can do the job. Steven Adams has been a revelation, and has very much come into his own. Thus freeing up Ibaka in this role. Add Kanter off the bench... and that's a very tasty trio to pound the boards. Relentlessly. Led by Westbrook and Durant this Thunder team now seem to have enormous self belief... having convincingly already put the Spurs away. They are on a roll. Is Steph Curry fit? It seems he's outta gas... especially against the dogged defence being served up to him by OKC.
Marshall
Guest
Fan of neither team, but watching these games in OKC I find myself feeling anxious and overwhelmed and I'm not even in the arena. The swarming unrelentless athleticism of the Thunder is phenomenal and the crowd is something else entirely. They are like a swarm of unstoppable fast, long armed, high-motor machines who are feeding off the raucous environment to just destroy there opponents. Amazing to watch
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
Agree that Westbrook has been massive this series while Curry has been poor. I think much of that comes from Golden State's decision to guard Westbrook with Curry. Steph just isn't a good enough defender - especially coming off a sprained ankle and MCL - to stop Westbrook, and it takes away from his offensive game. Who'd have thought Billy Donovan would out-coach Steve Kerr?
Swampy
Guest
Rebounding may be the indicator but after watching every game there is one reason and one reason only OKC lead 3-1. Russell Westbrook. OKC have the best player in the series, so far. In actual fact they probably have the 2nd best player and the 4th and 5th best players as well. And probably this tells you as much as anything - Steph Curry is not in the top 5 (Klay gets the nod at 3). And since he kicked Adams in the nuts, Draymond Green has turned into a liability for the Warriors - no one is playing worse than him. However GSW are a different team, whilst I hope the Thunder win the series, it wouldn't surprise me at all if GSW won 3 straight in blow outs to clinch it. I can't write them off. Billy Donovan hey? Didn't see it coming after the regular season.