Can Hawthorn win the flag without Jarryd Roughead?

Before I get into any analysis today I want to make it clear that there’s no disrespect intended here. The reason behind Jarryd Roughead’s absence for the rest of 2016 – the reoccurence of the melanoma that saw him miss part of last year – is a topic that’s tough to talk about.

I’m someone who has lost a family member to cancer, and I’m sure that many people reading this piece will be able to join me in that boat. So I hope you understand that I don’t at all mean to be flippant here by talking about football when we all know that the topic of football pales in comparison to the topic of cancer.

Roughead’s absence, regardless of the reasons behind it, does pose a significant football question though, and that is this: can Hawthorn, the three-time reigning premiers, challenge for a fourth consecutive flag without him?

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Firstly let’s take a look at a few key numbers. As I said earlier in the season, scoring in the AFL is on the up (and there was much rejoicing). Last year each team in the league scored an average of 86.6 points per game, in 2016, they’re scoring 92.3 points per game. It’s not a lot, but it’s a little.

In 2015, Hawthorn averaged a mighty 111.5 points per game, or 128 per cent of the average. In 2016, they’re scoring just 96.3 points per game – still an above average effort, but only 104 per cent of the average. In a year where teams are scoring about a goal a game more than they did last year on average, Hawthorn are scoring two-and-a-half goals less.

There’s no doubting that Roughead’s absence is a significant part of this. When putting together The Roar’s AFL Top 50 earlier this year we had significant debate as to just how important Roughead really is, but nine games into Hawthorn’s 2016 season we are seeing quite clearly that his absence creates a number of problems for the Hawks.

When news of Roughead’s PCL injury broke in January, I said the following:

If Roughead can return to peak fitness by the latter half of the season, the Hawks have already proven that they can win a flag from outside the top two if they need to, as they did in 2015.

In unfortunate news for the rest of the competition, despite this setback, the fourpeat is still very much alive.

However, now that we know Roughead will not return to the AFL in 2016, it’s a very different scenario. The question is no longer about whether the Hawks can bank enough wins in the early part of the season to achieve a top four finish, but whether they can execute a fourth premiership with him not playing at all.

Earlier this week I put together some comparisons on how many of one statistic a team requires per goal, the logic being that the team who has the least disposals, clearances or inside 50s per goal must therefore have the most efficient forward line. This proved to be correct in my view, as the Adelaide Crows, who I regard as the best forward line in the league, were the best for all three of those indicators.

The Hawks however rank ninth for disposals per goal, tenth for clearances per goal, and ninth for inside 50s per goal – firmly middle-of-the-road numbers, and the symptom of a team with an only so-so forward line.

To their credit, the Hawks’ established forwards Jack Gunston, Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust and Paul Puopolo have all done their best to pick up the slack – right now all four of them are equalling or bettering their average goals per game from 2015, with Puopolo kicking more than half a goal more each week on average.

And some credit should go to James Sicily, whose 1.4 goals per game is making up nearly three quarters of Roughead’s goal contribution from 2015. Tim O’Brien, going at less than a goal per game, is really the only member of the forward six not holding up his end of the bargain.

But it is not so much the forwards themselves as the players from other parts of the ground who usually rotate through the forward line that are not finding much opportunity to kick goals. Isaac Smith after kicking nearly a goal per game in 2015 has just four for the season. Sam Mitchell – admittedly not a noted goalkicker – has just 0.1 in 2016. And the Hawks are missing Matt Suckling’s ability to slot one off a step from 60m out more than they probably thought they would.

Roughead was immensely important to the Hawks structure as a tall target capable not just of kicking his own goals but of creating situations for his fellow forwards to score goals from – and the same can be said perhaps to a lesser degree of the retired David Hale. This task in now being left to Gunston and O’Brien, and it’s really not their strong suit.

However, it would be a mistake to pretend that Roughead’s absence is the only concern for the Hawks at this stage. The departure of another tall unit at the other end of the ground in Brian Lake has had arguably the biggest impact of all.

While Lake was never the best player in the Hawks side (well, except in the 2013 Grand Final), his presence had an important flow-on effect of allowing Josh Gibson to play off his man and run loose, becoming a creative playmaker in the back half for the Hawks.

Now not only is Gibson required to spend more time manning up an opponent and less time creating plays off half-back, but the likes of Grant Birchall (four less kicks per game from 2015 to 2016) and Taylor Duryea (two less marks per game) are also feeling the heat – and the Hawks are missing Matt Suckling at this end of the ground too.

The cumulative effect is that the Hawks’ ability to create scoring opportunities is down, alongside their ability to convert them into goals. With Luke Hodge absent for much of the season to date and Cyril Rioli badly needed up forward, they’ve become heavily reliant on Sam Mitchell to do it all in the middle of the ground.

Mitchell did an admirable job of this in the early part of the season but in more recent weeks teams have been targetting him heavily, most notably when he was tagged to 15 disposals by his surname-namesake Tom Mitchell in Round 9 against Sydney.

Hawthorn’s recent losses, to GWS and Sydney, have come in matches where Mitchell’s ability to move the ball and create opportunities was restricted, recording just 16 kicks across the two games. If things continue as they are, all opposition teams will need to do to give themselves a big chance of winning is put plenty of attention into Mitchell.

So is the Hawks’ season doomed? Absolutely not. As I said to Ryan Buckland in The Roar AFL Podcast after Round 8, the Hawks are a team I will never be willing to write off until they’re eliminated from the competition. Last season after their qualifying final defeat I made the mistake of asking if their era was over, and they roared back into life – let’s not poke a sleeping bear.

What they need, primarily, is to find some replacements for Lake and Roughead. They’re not going to find players quite at the level of those two, but they need to find some who can at least play the role, and allow the flow-on effects of greater dynamism out of defense and more effective conversion of scoring opportunities in the forward line to occur.

Matt Spangher, included in the team this week, might prove to be that answer for them down back, and Ryan Schoenmakers, soon to make his comeback from a groin injury, could likewise fill the hole up forward. Lake and Roughead they ain’t, but they’ve got experience and mature bodies, something that is not true of the players who’ve been trying to fill those roles in recent weeks.

The return of Luke Hodge in a month or so will also be a significant boost for the Hawks. He’ll provide some much needed support for Mitchell in the middle of the ground, not to mention the versatility to have an impact inside either 50.

So, can the Hawks win the flag without Jarryd Roughead? Absolutely. They’re a little off the pace now but there’s more than half of a season to come (and they should add another win today against the Brisbane Lions), they have plenty of time to find solutions for their troubles and work their way back into contention.

(And most importantly, far more importantly than anything I just said – get well soon, Roughy.)