With precious little in the way of club rugby league to discuss this weekend, and with State of Origin coverage reaching saturation point, I decided to switch the focus from the paddock to the boardroom.
I am trading footy phrases for corporate clichés, as the smell of mahogany and cheap leather has me in the mood for some blue sky thinking on the topic of expansion.
National Rugby League CEO Todd Greenberg, in his previous role as Head of Football, recently poo-pooed the idea of expanding the competition during the current broadcast deal. However for the sake of this article, I am going to assume that Todd wakes up one morning and is overcome by a sudden wave of endeavour.
The idea strikes him with the force of an Adam Blair late shot – it’s time for the NRL to expand to an 18-team competition! He runs to his open bedroom window, and shouts at Greg Florimo to put down his Bears placard, get off his front lawn, and get his franchise bid in order.
The following will be a helicopter overview of the most desirable candidates to receive a license as the National Rugby League’s 17th and 18th teams. And I’ll be happy to take any questions offline.
Perth
The West Coast Pirates are ripped and ready to go. They even have their own Wikipedia page! Despite the rapid demise of the Western Reds, for which I heap most of the blame on the broad shoulders of Mick Potter, Perth still boasts a healthy rugby league participation rate, indicating legitimate fan interest.
This is backed by a strong average crowd of approximately 20,000 people when the NRL has taken a club game to Western Australia over the last three years (a figure made even more impressive by the fact that these fans paid to watch the Warriors run around).
Without another team located within 1000km, a franchise based in Perth would have unchallenged access to any available corporate support. Surely the notoriously charitable Gina Rinehart would be good for spare million or two in third party agreements.
The Pirates also have a centrally located and recently redeveloped stadium, meaning upfront expenditure would be minimal. And most importantly to the NRL, Perth’s location two hours behind Sydney would create scheduling opportunities for the broadcasters.
A four-game, 10-hour Super Duper Saturday marathon on Fox Sports would have Murdoch and his boys drooling, although surely having Braith Anasta appear on screen for that many consecutive hours breaches some form of broadcasting regulation.
For all the positives that a Perth-based franchise offers, the logistical concerns are huge. The operational costs of spending half the season 10,000 feet above the Nullarbor would be massive, and something the NRL would need to subsidise. There would also be a legitimate concern around player welfare, as considerable recovery time would be spent in transit. Also, it’s too hot in Perth.
Brisbane
Western Sydney is often called the heartland of rugby league. The 45,000 spectators who pack out Suncorp stadium every other week might have something to say about that. Brisbane is a league-obsessed city offering abundant corporate support, existing infrastructure, a world-class stadium and fans willing to shell out their hard earned cash to fill it regularly.
It’s no coincidence that the Broncos have been the most successful football organisation for the last 20 years.
The possibility of huge crowds streaming through the turnstiles at Suncorp stadium each weekend is financially enticing, but the media opportunities are positively mouth-watering.
Rugby league is a sport founded on fierce rivalries, with the epic Cowboys v Broncos encounters being the latest example. An all-Brisbane blockbuster would induce a form of town pride inspired rum rage not witnessed since Expo 88.
There is an argument that an additional side in Brisbane would dilute the support for the Broncos. To me, that sounds like the sort of self-serving bile Wayne Bennett would spew forth to protect his club’s enviable positioning in the game. Melbourne is a clear example of an Australian city which happily accommodates large fan-bases within a small geographical area.
The Central Coast
Ahhh The Bears. Every Sydneysider’s second-favourite team. Since the ill-fated arranged marriage between Manly and North Sydney was swiftly annulled, Greg Florimo has been ranting and raving to anyone who will listen that the Central Coast is the perfect candidate for readmission into the NRL.
He reminds me of the wimpy kid who gets kicked out of the group at school, and mopes around the playground until his friends let him sit with them again. Those were tough years.
The Central Coast sports a large population who live and breathe rugby league. Junior participation is massive, giving any side based in the region a rich nursery from which to develop local talent. The presence of a purpose-built rugby league stadium, nestled serenely on the stagnant Brisbane waters, is an additional boon to any expansion bid.
But unfortunately for Greg and his hibernating Bears, what the Central Coast does not offer is any point of difference from an NRL perspective. Corporate opportunities are severely limited, and from a broadcasting point of view, the Bears would be viewed in a similar light as Newcastle or Canberra, which is to say, invisible.
And it doesn’t help that those living between Peats Ridge and Wyong are existing NRL supporters, so the league does not achieve a net gain of new fans.
New Zealand
In theory, rugby league in New Zealand works. In theory, so does communism. Australia’s little brother is blessed with some of the finest physical specimens the Almighty could fashion, a healthy appetite for the 13-man game, and a couple of cities ready and willing to accommodate an NRL franchise. So what could possibly go wrong?
If the New Zealand Warriors are any indication, pretty much everything. Well, maybe that’s being a little harsh. The Warriors have been fortunate enough to enjoy stability in the boardroom and have made a couple of grand finals, but they will always be viewed the game’s great underachievers. The performance of the team this season is a perfect example of the enigmatic and ultimately infuriating character of this side.
So should we add another team in New Zealand if the existing one has yet to truly solidify its presence? I think so.
An additional team across the ditch would boast a hungry fan-base, abundant corporate opportunities, broadcasting flexibility, an existing stadium, and an instant rivalry with the Warriors. My ballot for the upcoming election will have less ticked boxes.
Central Queensland
From Brisbane to Townsville there exists a 1300-kilometre streak of sunshine rife with league-deprived Queenslanders who are desperate for a team to call their own. Rockhampton would seem the most likely location to base a Central Queensland franchise.
But despite massive spectator interest in the region and the broadcasting advantages which come with any new Queensland side, Michelle Jenneke would struggle to clear all the hurdles in the way of Rockhampton getting an NRL team.
Firstly, cost is a major issue. A new stadium would need to be built, and while initial funding may not be a huge issue, return on investment would be. Rockhampton has a population of around 80,000 people, so to fill a new stadium, a quarter of the town would need to front up to each home game.
Secondly, corporate support would be challenging. Agriculture is the predominant big business in the region, which is not an industry familiar with the provision of third party agreements or stadium naming rights. However the mental image of an NRL player on horseback doing a spot of mustering on a local property to thank a wealthy investor is somewhat comforting.
Any team situated so far North of Sydney would also face the same logistical hardships as the Cowboys currently confront on a weekly basis, namely the draining and time-consuming travel. But for all the challenges facing a Central Queensland team, there is something undeniably appealing about the idea of giving a team to the people who most deserve it.
Others in contention
Port Moresby would be a fantastic option, but not just yet. Security concerns and cost would be too much to overcome at this stage. Ipswich is another contender, but I see them as the poor man’s Brisbane. Adelaide? Nah. Perhaps another team in Bondi? At least if you spread the Rooster’s squad over a couple of teams, they might sneak under the salary cap.
Verdict
If it were up to me, and luckily it never will be, I would opt for Brisbane and Perth. Financially, another team in Brisbane is too enticing to pass up. The local fans have proven they will support their home team both by buying tickets to games and religiously tuning in at home.
Perth gets the nod due to its combination of outstanding existing facilities, lucrative corporate opportunities and a broadcasting point of difference. Over to you, Todd.
Bearfax
Guest
I'm sold Alvin on the proviso that those games are televised, or at least a couple of them each week. This would raise the status and give some incentive for sponsorship and supporters. It would have to be handled carefully and given full backing otherwise it would become just another failed experiment if there's no interest.
Alvin Purple
Guest
Isnt this what the Intrust Cup's are for. NRL clubs are not making money now and adding costs for a reserve grade side is a significant burden. All for expansion but we need to look at the issues that the AFL has had and learn from them. GWS is doing well now but they have spent a bomb trying to get it going. Despite their success this year crowds still seem low but in time may improve
Alvin Purple
Guest
Bearfax - no I do not believe that promotion relegation works in our market What I am suggesting is that if we want new teams we have a secondary competition that allows prospective teams to compete against each other and then based on performance they can be considered as an expansion side whenever this may be. I believe soccer in the USA is following a similar formula Maybe the expansion will assist talent as you say but what I proposing will allow for this anyway. It is just a matter of how you perceive this.
Observer
Guest
For rugby union it is, exploding as the game reaches further afield with sevens as an Olympic sport.
GWSINGAPORE
Guest
Perth - rich sponsorship? The Western Force are into their third season without being able to secure a major jumper sponsor. The resources boom is over folks! Money is tight across WA and the state as a $35 billion dollar deficit that is growing every day. WA has a lot higher priorities at the moment than nuturing a rugby league team.
Bearfax
Guest
Where do you get these extraordinary figures Peter. China at its peak was increasing at 15% in 2007 but slumped to 6% in 2009 before recovering to 12% in 2012. Its been on the slide in recent years but is presently still growing at about 6.5%, way above most other economies still. By the way India is now the fastest growing economy at 7.6% South America may be looking shinier today but back in the 1920s and 30s many of the states were struggling seriously economically and there was a lot of poverty. Yet South American teams won three of the first seven World Cups in soccer and held the first one. And it was the skills learned on the streets that have maintained their power in world soccer.
Tom Rock
Expert
Having a reserve grade would certainly help make the guys more ready to take the jump to first grade, but it won't necessarily make them better players. I just see a gap here, but I might be completely off the mark. Wouldn't be the first time.
turbodewd
Roar Guru
PNG is a nightmare in every sense. I was reliably informed that a male AFP officer was sxually assaulted in PNG a year or 2 ago. Its just a security nightmare. DFAT staff must catch a minibus from the hotel to the High Commission despite it being within walking distance. Its just so unsafe. http://smartraveller.gov.au/countries/papua_new_guinea - nightmare basically Port Moresby WILL NOT have an NRL first grade team in our lifetimes.
pete bloor
Guest
On the sports aspect yes I said repeatedly that PNG has a role to play, it just isn’t as the site for an NRL team because the commercial rational doesn’t stack up and the NRL is a commercial enterprise. Even then to liken it to South America is a bit disingenuous as poverty not just because png =/= the economic situation in south America but that region organically became a source of talent (with a bit of a flesh trade in young footballers as well) rather than being created so there perhaps may be more to it than just throwing a ball to a poor kid and then watch the talent explode. I’m not sure how saying china is transitioning is premature as it all the evidence seems to point to it and you are literally the first person I’ve heard suggest otherwise. It has a long way to go to become a “true” developed country but then there is a long way to go from its current growth to 2 to 3 % as well. I never said they had gone away, it has slowed that is obvious– and it has definitely slowed its consumption of commodities, but slowing =/= stopping. I’m well aware that they are still investing (helping this is part of my job) however the value of those investments has gone down as the value of the end commodity decreases and the mix of their offshore investments is definitely branching away from commodities and into more industrial and infrastructure assets globally. The discussion about the tracts of land for food is actually a different argument to the “hard” commodity one as it is actually part of the transition. There is a decent amount of data that shows the growing middle class leads to growing consumption of dairy and high grade meat as there is more focus on nutrition (baby formula anecdotes could be inserted here). Then the India thing, saying there is “no doubt” India fills the role is incredibly optimistic. India and China have incredibly different social, economic and government structures. India’s economy used to be basically the same size as china’s with a smaller population. So if it their ascension was so inevitable why has China lapped them growth wise when India started in a better position? India may well get its act together and become the world’s growth engine but there is significant reason to doubt that it can do so without massive change that would be against the interest of the highest castes. As to the wealth of PNG is not going away no one said it was? They just said growth will slow and that its wealth actually isn’t all that great to begin with. And what wealth they do have seems to be highly concentrated which is pretty much expected for a developing country that’s been living through a commodity boom.
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
Isn't the talent issue more a case of there being no place for players between under 20s and first grade? Get a proper reserve grade back and the talent issue becomes a non-issue as the step up becomes possible and probable. Right?
Tom Rock
Expert
AP I think your point about existing talent is spot on. In my opinion, this is the single biggest hurdle to expansion at the moment. If we cannot share the talent equally across 16 teams, and we have a side like the Knights who are often uncompetitive, adding two more teams may exacerbate this issue.
S T Ruggling
Roar Pro
Bulldogs and eels = defendants
Bearfax
Guest
Firstly being poor is actually an incentive when it comes to sports. Check out some of the South and Central American countries and the growth in Africa in soccer. They play the game on the streets constantly because there is little other recreation, and they develop skills often surpassing those from wealthier countries. Further the drive to become a soccer international for them is a pathway out of poverty. PNGs poverty would actually be a stimulant to the game. Secondly I take your point about China, though I suspect the assessment is a little premature. China has its fingers in the pie of many poorer countries around the World. Its out trading the US at its own game in trade and exploitation of resources, which wont stop, because China still has a long way to go before it can be considered Ist World. And then there's India which will no doubt follow China's lead in this area. To suggest China is slowing down in its search for resources goes against its actions in the South China Sea, Africa, Pacific Islands in general, even here in Australia where they are attempting to buy huge tracts of land to supply food for their huge population. The wealth in PNG is not going away and neither is China, despite what some economists may say.
Birdy
Guest
Titans / Bears merger Gold Coast Titty Bears. I'm conducting the mascot interviews.
Bearfax
Guest
Alvin are you suggesting a promotion-relegation scheme. Not sure it would work here, but if not then the idea has some merit I think. I disagree about there not being enough players and money. When you expand to new areas it stimulates both. That's why I think Perth, PNG, NZ (South Island), Central Coast NSW and a second Brisbane side offer an enhancement in player strength and corporate dollar. There are a large number of kids out there who have not chosen League, because of better offers in other sports, who if they saw a chance may well stick with the master game. Its the opening of opportunities that will help growth...always has. But as a preparation for NRL admission, your second tier comp looks good to me.
pete bloor
Guest
I actually looked at the forecasts for that reason (look at the future not the now) and there isn’t a forecaster that I can find that has PNG generating above the regional average growth. To just assume china will cyclically return to the same growth rates is another classic mistake that the past is repeated perfectly even when you change things. It ignores that it is transitioning to a developed economy which will inevitably lead to slower growth rates. Also assuming that their demand profile will be replicated if growth returns to previous levels ignores the structural shift in their economy. It’s why investors round the globe no longer have china as a positive. Yes PNG is growing, not disputing that, but it is from a base of less than the gold coast. Then we layer in the population which you are holding out as a positive but it isn’t it is a large flashing red light saying “warning warning”! Because small economy / large population = got wide spread poverty (roughly 1/3 of the population in abject poverty), no infrastructure (roughly 2/3 without access to running water) and massive disparity of wealth (according to Oxfam the highest disparity in wealth in the Asia Pacific). That disparity of wealth is only likely to further widen if the future growth prospects are based on the capital intensive monetisation of resources.
Alvin Purple
Guest
There are 2 issues I see for expansion 1. Are there enough quality players to go around. In my view there is not. 2. Is there enough money to support these teams. The AFL has had to pour serious money into their 2 new franchises. All but 2 current NRL clubs make money. The ARU has to save the Force and no sure of the A league but doubt any are making money. Australia's sporting landscape is simply to crowded to run so many full time football teams My solutions is to start a second tier competition that will allow for sides that are potential entrants into the NRL. Here are the sides - 2nd Brisbane side - Ipswich - Central Qld - PNG - Central Coast - 2nd NZ side - Perth - Fiji side This competition can be added to future broadcast deals allowing the sides to raise sponsorship money on a lower salary cap. If the NRL wants to expand it can then look at which of these sides are doing well both on and off the field and look to promote them accordingly.
S T Ruggling
Roar Pro
Shark and Storm = Sharknado
peeeko
Roar Guru
nice one
Bearfax
Guest
I think Duecer that Perth in Rugby terms is a different animal to Melbourne. There are a lot of ex N.S. Welshmen in the West and the Rugby games thrive, especially RL. Rugby League has been well established in the Perth region since the 50s and 60s and presently has an 8 team comp with a further 3 clubs with juniors only aspiring for inclusion in the big game. They have established competitions from Under 11s up. In the Pilbara region there are a further six clubs so its a state that isnt virtually starting from scratch like Victoria. They also have a recently refurbished ground designed for Rugby and soccer that has a seating capacity over 20,000. Souths vs Gold Coast and Manly vs Warriors matches are to be played there in next two months and a test match between Australia and NZ in October. There is no question Perth is ripe for the picking and they have strong corporate support to start an NRL side almost immediately.