With the debate around the selections for the upcoming Wallabies Test series against England, it’s a good time to review Michael Cheika’s selection strategies from 2015.
First, let’s look at the forwards.
During the first two games of the Rugby Championship against South Africa and Argentina, Cheika’s preferred approach for forward play emphasised big ball runners to make metres up the middle of the park, sucking in defenders and creating opportunities out wide.
However, when the potential of Michael Hooper and David Pocock in the “Pooper” combination became apparent, Cheika put them both on the park at ANZ stadium to play a major part in getting the Wallabies their first win against the All Blacks in four years.
Not finished with his experimentation though, he went back to the big ball-running approach for the second Bledisloe Test at Eden Park, and the Wallabies got flogged.
The Pooper combination was used against major opponents from then on until the World Cup final. In that game, the All Blacks found a way to beat them with aggression at the breakdown, smart playmaking and tactical kicking, all the while taking advantage of their taller pack in the lineout. The weaknesses of the Pooper combination were exposed, and Cheika now needs to find a solution to those if he is to use it again.
The backline selections during the Rugby Championship games were less an audition for a combination of players than it was for fly-half, with the other first-pick backs seeming to be well ahead of their nearest rivals in Cheika’s mind. Of course, we all know the results, a rusty, post-injury Quade Cooper did not impress and his outrageous skills were set aside for the more limited but more reliable Bernard Foley.
So what does this tell us about the likely selections in the upcoming England Test? Cheika won’t be adopting a “pick and stick” strategy and every player selected in the squad will get a run in Gold. Sure, the majority of the positions will stay with the incumbents, but Cheika will be making significant changes as he goes through the tournament to keep his wily old mate Eddie on his toes.
The two big questions around the Wallabies’ approach which comes to mind are around the loose forwards and the centre pairing, with different approaches to each having flow-on effects for selections in the forwards and backs respectively. Who gets a run on the wing is also in question, though that will likely to just come down to individual form.
In the forwards, the question is whether the Pooper combination has run its course, or has Cheika come up with a way to make use of two shorter loose forwards without giving up so much in the lineout and running the ball?
Comments recently on Rugby 360 by Cheika indicated he is considering using three smaller loosies at a time – the Pooper combination plus Sean McMahon – and suggested he has a plan to compensate for the disadvantage at the lineout.
My feeling is at some time in the series we will see the “McPooper” combo on the park, but I also think Cheika will try his more traditional approach as well. He wouldn’t have Will Skelton in the training squad if he wasn’t considering using him, and Cheika can’t use him and three small loosies at once. The lineout would be a disaster.
In the centres, Cheika will switch between starting a traditional playmaking inside-centre with a ball-running 13 to ball runners at both centre positions. That, of course, will have flow-on impacts, with a playmaking fullback being required for the second option.
If Cheika wants to play the Pooper combination, he will be likely to use the all-power approach in the backs in order to compensate for the lack of a ball-running eight
So the motto of the story is, don’t get too attached to any team selection during this series, because it is likely to change. It is Cheika’s only opportunity to nail down a couple of options with which to face the All Blacks on August 20 in his Quest to bring back the Bledisloe after more than a decade of it residing on the wrong side of the Ditch. Based on what he did last year, I’ll back him to make the most of it.
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Back again Homer. 2-1 may indeed be a decent call but i can rationalise a number of other eventualities too. However, is it me or are you dodging naming this stronger Wallaby bench you declared and I called you on?
Homer
Guest
Hi again Neil Back, There's some truth in what you say about the England v Wales but for me the key is that Wales are not exactly the same side they were three years ago (younger, more original in their style of play, more confident etc) .Sadly they are actually very much the same people they were in 2013 - but now they are older, more tired, less confident and with the same tactics on display against sides that can read them and play them out of the game. Wales are on the way down and aren't a threat to anyone. England are probably on the way up. Eddie Jones influence could turn out to be remarkable (as it was in preparing his team for the Japan v SA game). England also have some fresher talent to exploit, now matched with cunning coach that creates a team whose confidence and self-belief is rising. But that's all true for Australia too. And Australia start from a higher position in terms of experience, confidence, battle hardening etc. Throw in home field advantage and the balance tips towards Australia. It may not tip by much, but as in 'first-past-the-post' elections, a slight advantage is all that's needed for a thrashing or even a whitewash. It's a game of inches and degrees and percentage points and Aussie are a few notches ahead right now. Aussie by at least 2 to 1 games. Hurroo.
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Homer, you're absolutely right, Wales are not the standard a serious side should set their stall by but you're missing the point. England flogged Wales (even with Ford having a nightmare from the tee) with seven likely starters (eight if you count Marler) absent.The Welsh have a recent history of tight (some very) games against the Wallabies at home. Twickers is only a few hours drive from home for them and doesn't hold the horrors of a SH tour so home/away matters less. I seriously doubt your Wallaby side could see that attrition from it's starting side and still be confident of spanking what was still a strong and experienced Welsh line up at an equivalent venue. But that said, why not name your stronger bench. I'd be really interested considering i can put England benchers straight into the Wallaby starting side.
Gunner
Guest
Folau and Hooper swap positions at line out time
English Dan
Guest
Folau in the line out? Yes, do that. Please do that.
ken
Guest
The difference though is that they ( TAHS) get more shots at getting better... Can`t you see the Checka bias towards the Tahs ?? , Really, you cant see it ?? He punts other blokes from other franchises because : They play an average game, (Out ) These guys are not given any chance to prove them selves over a period of time .. He dismissed HIGGERS after one test ( We won ).. Never to be seen again .. Was Scott that bad ?? No he wasn't IMO... Those unfairly treated are below... HORWILL ( sacked after Bledisloe ) HIGGERS ( sacked after one winning test ) QUADE ( Given no real game time in RWC URUGUAY only ) CHRISTIAN ( NOT EVEN SELECTED ) NIC WHITE ( scored winning try bledisloe 1, sacked after Bledisloe ) HANSON ( no game time in RWC ) TOMANE ( considered Mitchell as being better )
Jason
Guest
If he likes abrasive players ,why did he select PALU?? The guy is made of glass, or goes MIA when the going gets tough. He has gone missing in every single test against the AB`S..
ken
Guest
A kiwi talking up an aussie = he doesn't rate him..
Perthstayer
Roar Rookie
Hi Homer - I forgot to add a comment on EJ. IMO he will seriously reduce the "Away" fear factor. England has a team that can win - the remaining 99% is in their heads - EJ can swing that pendulum. But time will tell.
Homer
Guest
Hi Neil Back (see below) "In case you missed it, they just flogged Wales with six of their Slam starters unavailable due to club finals and a seventh rested" And that makes them as good as Australia? The English flogged the WELSH. Seriously - the Welsh are the standard to judge a team by now? What did I miss? Did Wales win a RWC? Or come second? Or third? Or fourth? Or did they win the 6 nations? Beating Wales is a given for all the SH. But none of the NH can be certain of beating them and that tells a story right there. Australia's bench is stronger than England. England are fit but like most NH sides, they presently lack the ability to win a game at the end. Hurroo
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Sorry Homer but that's nonsense on two counts. To suggest the Poms won't last the pace is possibly one of the biggest misconceptions on these boards but you just came up with the worst by telling us Australia have a stronger bench. In case you missed it, they just flogged Wales with six of their Slam starters unavailable due to club finals and a seventh rested.
Homer
Guest
Me too - I'm a weary Blues fan as well - (so many years of disappointment since the glory days of last century). I'm ready for some good news from Aus, SA and NZ when their tourists arrive. I don't recall if the English are playing any non-test sides on their tour? Anyone know who else they are playing?
Homer
Guest
No drama at all mate - and like you I think a thread should broadly stick to the subject of the article. Hurroo.
Homer
Guest
Perthstayer - I agree that the English will be fit - but being fit isn't the only thing you need in the dying minutes of a game. I have a mate - 15 years younger then me and he works out and is plenty fit. I took him hunting with me and he was stuffed after a few hours. At the end he said he didn't want to hunt anymore and also mentioned that he slept for about 10 hours when he got home. I'm older and far less fit but I know what to expect when I going wandering round the hills looking for deer. I pace myself and save something for the carry home if needed. He didn't know what was required at the end and his willpower started to weaken. He wasn't really expecting the intensity and the length of effort. The Poms also don't really know what the end of a game against the SH sides demands from them and they will be flogged around the field. Substitutes can help a lot but the second rank of English players isn't as good as the second rank of Aus, SA or NZ players. The English copped it last year and every year before then from SH sides at the end of various matches. I think a game can be won by a come-from- behind SH team against any NH team in the final quarter - but I don't feel it works the other way very often. Maybe this year Eddie Jones can make that change in their mindset or whatever it is that makes it so very very hard to kill off any SH side.
Joe Blow
Guest
Houston maybe? He's a great bench option to back up the Pooper with the running game plus a decent lineout.
luker
Guest
As much as I love Skelton, I think he is odd man out. For me, it just has to be Pooper. If Fardy, Simmons and Coleman /Arnold/Carter/Horwill can't run a reasonable lineout, this is a performance not a selection issue. The missing link in the pack is an in-close bruising ball runner not the lineout. Despite Fardy being a very solid player, he does not deliver enough in the ball running department. Australia have lacked this kind of Willie-O, Finnegan type player for a long time. Why do we persist with Palu? Because on his day he is a world class bruising runner, but his days as we know are all too infrequent. So who is it to be? I'm not sold on Coleman and Arnold yet but they may be potential there. Skelton is not there for a number of reasons. McMahon is effective but not big enough to fulfill this role. I wonder if Timani is not the best prospect in this department. How about a Timani, hooper, Pocock backrow?
Joe Blow
Guest
I cannot fathom the criticism of Foley at 10. He is our most complete 10 for a very long time. He has good distribution, excellent defense, a very respectable running game, a reasonable boot and the heart of a lion. He also has an excellent combo with Phipps. What more do you fellas want?? There is no-one else that come even close, especially Quade. People calling for the McPooper are asking for big trouble against the likes of England. If the ABs were able to overpower the Pooper and take advantage in the lineout then England and SA will not be far behind. They are coming with a brutal pack of forwards including 4 locks that would be first chosen in our squad. Don't be surprised to see Lawes at 6 for a lot of the time and England kicking for the corners. Sadly for McMahon he came along at a time when Hooper was at his peak. Unless he can play Hooper out of the side or one of the Pooper get injured there will be no place for him in our 23. I doubt Cheika will start with both he and Hooper when Pocock is on sabbatical next year either. Enter Houston. Cheika is looking for a legitimate classical 8 option that will prove more explosive than Ben McCalman. Houston is the man. He has all the toughness of the Big Dog with better lineout and ball playing skills. I will go out on a limb and state that he will soon be our starting eightman with Pocock in Japan, maybe before hand. Hope we see a Kerevi/Folau centre partnership shifting our point of attack a bit wider and bring Folau into the action more frequently. He has been going very well at 13 for the Tahs and will cause the Poms all kind of trouble out wide if Cheiks decides to go this way. What worked for us last year will not necessarily prove successful now. We need some changes and Cheika has the players to make some good ones.
Celtic334
Guest
Horne is a great defender. But to be honest if tomane wasn't injured I'd be slotting him in. Also Folau on the wing, id rather the best attacking threat getting the ball as much as possible.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Ken, you're kidding, right? The Tahs backline seems to work pretty well off B.Foley taking it to the line or passing to supports. Friday nights' match against the Chiefs, I thought Foley played pretty well. He set the backline off on raids with menace, made a couple good dashes himself, saved a try, neutralised A.Cruden who is no mug player and mostly tackled the monsters sent to wear him down. Yes he always misses the line in at least one kick off a penalty per game which tbh I want to throttle him. I've even seen him do that in test matches. So did Lima Sopoaga in the Highlander's match, you want to punt him also? :) Foley's tackle numbers are in the middle of the 5/8th in this year's SR, they should be better but they are not drastic to the point that many Roarers reckon he should be punted back to Shute or subbies. Off the SANZAR site they are: CLL (Brumbies) is magnificent at 94%, J.Luc de Plessis (Stormers) 81.4%, A.Cruden is 80%, then J.Dzebra at 79.6%. B.Barrett is 79.2%, I.West (Blues) is 78.3% as is F.Zeilinga (Cheetahs), B.Foley is 77.6%, R.Mounga (Crusaders) is 76.4%, L.Sopoaga, who just made the AB team, is 74.6%, J.McIntyre is 71.6%, E.Jantjies (Lions) 67.2%, G.April (Sharks) 63.2%.
CUW
Guest
i think there is potential for many changes , specially with the way concussions have come to prominence. already Ngatai has been left out and MOala called in untill he recovers (which can be days or months). Read is one bad knock away from retirement. Squire came back from a concussions. actually he was involved in Read's concussion last year if i remember right. it used to ignored but now a big concern. so player depth will be of great importance.