When the 2016 AFL fixture was released last October, not one AFL expert would have forecast that the Round 11 clash between Fremantle and Essendon could decide this year’s wooden spoon.
But that will exactly be the case when the bottom two teams on the ladder do battle at Domain Stadium this Saturday night.
Both the Dockers and Bombers have endured difficult seasons so far for contrasting reasons, with the former enduring its worst start to a season since 2001 and the latter being decimated by the suspensions of 12 currently listed players following the ASADA scandal which has been dragging on since early 2013.
After four consecutive finals series, and three consecutive top-four finishes including last year’s minor premiership, the Dockers have crashed and burned to the point where they are currently propping up the ladder after Round 10.
It is a massive cry from this time twelve months ago when the club were enjoying the view from the top of it, having won their first nine games of last season and being in top place from Round 4 onwards.
In addition to being the only winless team nearing the halfway point of this season, the Dockers have won just two of their last 16 matches dating back to their Round 20 loss to the West Coast Eagles last August.
The Dockers’ 0-10 start to the season is also the worst start to a season by any Ross Lyon-coached side, eclipsing the 1-1-5 start by St Kilda in 2011. It was Lyon’s final year at the club before he controversially switched to Fremantle shortly after the Saints’ elimination final loss to the Sydney Swans.
What hasn’t helped the Dockers’ plight so far in 2016 has been a crippling injury toll, with the likes of Aaron Sandilands, reigning Brownlow Medallist Nat Fyfe, Harley Bennell and captain David Mundy spending some time on the sidelines.
Fyfe is out for the rest of the season after suffering a leg injury against Carlton in Round 5 while Bennell, traded from the Gold Coast Suns at the end of last season won’t feature at all this year due to a calf injury.
It has also been suggested that former captain Matthew Pavlich may have made the wrong decision to go on for one more season, but the man himself has continued to deliver for the Dockers even without the burden of the captaincy for the first time in nearly a decade.
Last week the Dockers were anything but abysmal against the Saints, falling 28 points behind in the first quarter before fighting back in the middle two quarters to lead by three goals deep in the third quarter.
However, Ross Lyon’s men would cough up the final nine goals of the game to go down by 34 points, and remain anchored to the bottom of the ladder behind their opponents this Saturday night, Essendon.
While the Dockers have had it tough, the Bombers have had it even tougher with 12 of its current players being sidelined after it was ruled by the Court of Arbitration of Sport in January that they had taken a prohibited substance during the well-documented supplements program that took place in 2012.
That threw newly-appointed coach John Worsfold head first into his biggest challenge in either his playing or coaching career, and that is something the former West Coast Eagles premiership coach has taken with both hands.
Any fears that the Bombers would become the first side since Fitzroy in 1964 to endure a winless season were quickly extinguished in Round 2 when they upset the more heavily favoured Melbourne by 13 points.
While they haven’t won since, they have at least produced some competitive efforts none more so than against the Geelong Cats in Round 4, Carlton in Round 6 plus their second half fightback against North Melbourne in Round 8.
Their heaviest loss for the season so far came against the Sydney Swans in Round 7 when they lost by 81 points, but even in that match the Bombers still took it right up to the Swans, leading at one stage in the second quarter.
They also competed reasonably well against Richmond in last week’s Dreamtime at the G match, trailing by only 14 points at three-quarter-time before capitulating in the final quarter to lose by 38 points.
Now, they have the chance to further rub salt into the Dockers’ wounds and notch up their second win for the season, which would take them two games clear of last year’s minor premiers and possibly a game clear of the 16th-placed Brisbane Lions should they lose to Carlton at Etihad Stadium earlier in the day.
But if recent history is anything to go by, they won’t want to underestimate the wounded and winless Dockers, like they did in 2012 when they went into a game against Melbourne believing they would win, only to lose by six points.
On that occasion, the Bombers were second on the ladder at 8-1 and the Dees were 0-9 and dead last on the ladder; what transpired would be statistically one of the biggest upset wins in recent AFL history.
So, it’s all there for the taking. Can Fremantle finally notch up its first victory for the season and make an unlikely late charge for the finals, or will the Bombers win their second game and leave the Dockers anchored to the bottom of the ladder?
All of us will be watching with intrigue this Saturday night.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
No one is disputing that we were uncompetitive during Rounds 1 and 2. What is disputable, however, is that our uncompetitive form would have lasted though the rest of the early season without injuries. Lyon's new plans may have eventually started to work in Rounds 3 and further - in fact it was showing good signs in the Derby in Round 3 before Sandilands went down. Injuries, no matter what you scream and shout, are affecting us.
peter chrisp
Guest
Who would have thought that these 2 clubs especially Freo to be languishing towards the bottom of the ladder, and i guess a big surprise is to see Carlton getting close to the 8.
Balthazar
Guest
Ahh yes. A fan of the unbackable favourites to be premiers this year... How's that going for you? Sadly, for you, next year Freo will bounce back but WCE will still be unable to beat anyone of note away from Subi and the protection of Dalgleish Now that I have that sledge out of the way - I don't hate WCE at all, just don't really rate them - Freo should win this. But the Dons have picked a quicker side so they should try to outrun Freo early
anon
Guest
"Why don’t you keep honking about the Gold Coast loss again. You’ve only mentioned that 10-15 times already." Freo's uncompetitive round 1 and 2 performances with all their stars playing shows injuries aren't a problem but culture. Coaches drive culture. If you think a coach can't build or destroy culture over one summer than look toward Pyke at Adelaide, Bolton at Carlton, and Lyon at Freo.
Don Freo
Guest
Injuries...that's all.
Paul D
Roar Guru
But...but... Why don't you keep honking about the Gold Coast loss again. You've only mentioned that 10-15 times already. It would be absolute madness for Fremantle to sack Lyon here and now. At the very least I doubt they'd move on him unless he proved manifestly incapable of adapting his gameplan, and again - that will take time.
anon
Guest
But he has a worse losing streak than any of those coaches. Didn't Hardwick out-coach Lyon two weeks ago? Credits in the bank don't matter when you're on a 11 game losing streak and uncompetitive.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Pretty sure Lyon has a lot more credibility in the bank than Hardwick or Buckley. Or Harvey and Drum, for that matter. I agree he needs to change his gameplan and adjust his squad, but he needs time to do so, and he will be given time.
BigAl
Guest
If you're refering to me Don, I don't think Lyon should be sacked - I think he is the most innovative coach to come into the AFL, possibly in th modern era. However, you'd have to be blind, deaf and dumb Freddy not to notice that something bizarre and strange is happening at Freo this year ! - totally in uncharted waters within the AFL. Given all this anything could happen.
BigAl
Guest
Not hypocritical, economical ! Lyon was seriously worried that Saints management lacked the wherewithall or the funds to backup any contract amount they might 'ink'. This would have been compounded by the fact that the Lyon family had lost a "fair amount ?" of money around that time due to investments going sour, and Lyon felt he needed more financial certainty in his life, going forward.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
What's with your extensive anti-Freo hysteria? It's getting a bit ridiculous now. Can't develop a list? He hasn't had to before, so your judgement is redundant. The loss to Gold Coast? We lost to the better team on the day, happens to every team one time or another. Can't coach anymore? Wow. I'm pretty sure he's been coaching an AFL team for longer than you've been posting anti-Freo dribble on this site, but it would be a stretch.
anon
Guest
Mark Harvey was sacked after losing 7 in a row at Freo. Damian Drum was sacked after losing 10 in a row at Fremantle. Ross Lyon has lost the last 11 games at Freo. It's the worst losing streak of any coach in Fremantle's history. Please don't use the injuries alibi. He had a full strength team in round 2 and got smashed at Subiaco by a horrible Gold Coast team that can't travel. You could just imagine the stories in the media if this was Hardwick or Buckley losing 11 in a row. Can't coach any more, tactically the game has passed them by, can't develop a list. The difference is Lyon is a sales man who always comes to press conferences with a compelling sales pitch. He has everyone fooled.
Don Freo
Guest
That's right. Ball left because he wasn't the go to player at the Saints. Ross was bringing some young players through.
Don Freo
Guest
Different admin.
Alchemist
Guest
Yet he strangely found confidence in an administration that pulled the rug out from under Mark Harvey to give him a job. Hypocritical?
Alchemist
Guest
No. Luke Ball was at collingwood when they beat St Kilda in 2010.
jax
Guest
Now that Woosh is at the Bombers I'm hoping that they do well, but only for Woosha's sake. After the great service, and 3 flags that he's given WC it's the least that we can do IMO.
Lroy
Guest
Well, for a West Coast fan this is almost as good as it gets.... (apart from us winning a flag) the two teams I despise the most in a playoff for the wooden spoon. Methinks ill back the Bombers... seeing the Fockers at 0-11 is going to bring a smile to many a West Coast fan... ha ha ha ha
BigAl
Guest
St Kilda management have never been smart enough to "...outsmart themselves..." I remember hearing reports at the time he left St Kilda that Lyon just had no confidence in Saints management to honour any contract that they might present to him to stay... - http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/financial-woes-another-st-kilda-boss-greg-westaway-hits-hard-times/news-story/e3b4e9d65621a6f4add7b53521e6a684
Don Freo
Guest
It's interesting that non-Freo people are so keen to see the end of Ross at Freo. With so many top 4 finishes, it's not hard to see why. He is too much of a threat. Do you notice that not one Freo person wants to see him go?