The ‘big family hug’ of 39 potential Wallaby players has been announced. It’s a nice option for Michael Cheika. It gives notice to those on the outlying reaches of his selection radar, and it allows him to see how they act both on and off the field in camp.
It’s as much a psychological as an athletic assessment of their fitness to play for the Wallabies. Cheika wants to see what they call ‘the good make-up’ in American baseball, get close and personal to find out what makes his marginal players tick.
But the first cut will not be the deepest. It is only in the 30-down-to-23 round that the pain of cutting legitimate Test-match contenders will be felt. That pain will be set in stone when the match-day squad of 23 for Brisbane is finally announced.
So let’s take a tour of 39-man squad, and a measure of how the two rounds of cuts may develop by position:
Front row
| Selection rounds | Loose-head | Hooker | Tight-head |
| 39 | 1.Scott Sio | 1.Stephen Moore | 1.Sekope Kepu |
| 30 | 2.James Slipper | 2.Tatafu Polota-Nau | 2.Greg Holmes |
| 23 | 3.Toby Smith | 3.James Hanson | |
| 4.Allan Alaalatoa |
I expect selection in the front row to be quite straightforward. Sekope Kepu and Greg Holmes are by far the two best tight-heads available, and they will go through automatically to the match-day 23.
Kepu’s release by his club Bordeaux was important, because Australia will probably have an advantage on this side of the scrum. With both Kepu and Holmes in harness, and Tatafu Polota-Nau back from injury, they should be able to maximise it throughout the full 80 minutes.
Second row
| Selection rounds | Left lock | Right lock |
| 39 |
1.Rory Arnold |
1.Rob Simmmons* |
| 30 |
2.Adam Coleman* |
2.James Horwill* |
| 23 |
3.Will Skelton |
3.Sam Carter* |
| 4.Dean Mumm* |
(Potential lineout captains are marked with an asterisk*)
From one of the easiest selections to one of the toughest! Cheika likely brought James Horwill back in from the cold – both literally and figuratively – for one reason alone: to provide reliable leadership at lineout, and beyond it, from the bench when Rob Simmons leaves the field around the 50-60 minute mark.
Favourite to be Simmons’ starting partner at present has to be Rory Arnold, who has strung together an impressive sequence of performances for the Brumbies from Round 11 of Super rugby onwards.
This is a situation with a lot of fluidity in it – while Simmons remains a non-negotiable at right lock, the position next to him really is up for grabs.
Back row
| Selection rounds | Blind-side flank | No.8 | Open-side flank |
| 39 |
1.Scott Fardy |
1.David Pocock |
1.Michael Hooper |
| 30 |
2.Sean McMahon |
2.Wyclif Palu |
2.Liam Gill |
| 23 |
3. Ben McCalman |
||
| 4.Leroy Houston |
I expect Cheika to persist with ‘Pooper’, as England still won’t be coming with a dedicated 7, so the combination of Michael Hooper and David Pocock remains an excellent breakdown solution on both sides of the ball. It gives a 6-7-7 arrangement against England’s 6-6-8, which means an advantage in on-ball speed.
I also have a sneaking feeling that Cheika will attach value to Wyclif Paul’s potential contribution from the bench, while Sean McMahon has a chance to unseat Scott Fardy as the starting 6 if he can prove himself a significant lineout resource.
Halves
| Selection rounds | Scrum-half | Outside half |
| 39 |
1.Nick Phipps |
1.Bernard Foley |
| 23 |
2.Nick Frisby |
2.Christian Lealiifano |
| 3.Joe Powell |
Joe Powell is only in the squad for early observation at this stage of his career, although interestingly he is the only scrum-half in the squad who passes directly off the floor – and in this respect he is ahead of both the Nicks.
Frisby will pressurise Phipps for more game-time as the series progresses, while Christian Lealiifano will obviously get a hard look at 12 for the first Test at Brisbane.
Centres
| Selection rounds | Inside centre | Outside centre |
| 23 |
1. Karmichael Hunt |
1.Tevita Kuridrani 2.Samu Kerevi |
All three of selected centres (plus Lealiifano) will make it through to the final match-day cut. The real issue is how Cheika will achieve his aim of getting all his best back-line bodies on the field at the same time.
The absence of Australia’s best pure wingman, Joe Tomane, has increased the chances of the Reds’ Karmichael Hunt starting at Brisbane. With back three resources looking thin, Cheika doesn’t need multi-talented Israel Folau at centre, so he will almost certainly remain at fullback or move to a wing.
Cheika needs a dedicated open-side wing in set-piece defence – the role played by Adam Ashley-Cooper at the World Cup. Rob Horne is best suited to that role, which in turn would leave Folau and Hunt free to work the backfield pendulum on defence.
Whatever the numbers on their backs, all of Kerevi, Kuridrani and Hunt can be accommodated in the same back-line: imagine Hunt as second play-maker, with the two Ks and Folau around him on attack. Imagine Hooper-Kerevi-Kuridrani-Horne in front line set-piece defence, with Hunt and Folau behind them in the backfield.
Back-three
| Selection rounds | Left wing | Right wing | Fullback |
| 39 |
1.Rob Horne |
1.Israel Folau |
1. Dane Haylett-Petty |
| 30 |
2.Eto Nabuli |
2.Taqele Naiyaravoro |
2.Mike Harris |
| 23 | 3.Luke Morahan |
With only 14 backs included in the initial 39-man squad, there is ample space for a ‘bolter’ to emerge in camp conditions, and that man could be a 194-centimetre, 125-kilogram monster named Taqele Naiyaravoro. He would put the icing on the cake, in respect of the Wallabies’ big advantage in size and power in the back-line against England.
Even without Naiyaravoro, the Wallabies from numbers 11 through 15 will average over 100 kilograms per man, against an expected England average of 93 kilograms (in the absence of Manu Tuilagi). With Naiyaravoro in the match-day 23, the Wallaby average rises to 104 kilograms. There will not be a single back-line position where England are either bigger or more physical than their Wallaby counterparts.
Naiyaravoro was the subject of a 2015 tug-of-war between Scotland and Australia, with one of the two professional provinces – Glasgow Warriors – projecting his qualification under the three-year residency rule. Naiyaravoro’s nine minutes for the Wallabies against USA in September squashed that possibility, and he duly activated his one-year escape clause in order to return to the Waratahs.
Naiyaravoro has probably the most exceptional physical tools of any ‘big wing’ on the global scene since Jonah Lomu. I was lucky enough to see his huge upside live in the European Champions Cup fixture between Glasgow and the Scarlets at Scotstoun:
He gained 150 metres more than anyone else on the field during this game, an accurate representation of his impact on it – especially from the kick returns, which comprise the first four pieces of action.
The brute ‘goodbye’ power in the hips and the fend (reminiscent of Lomu) is universal, but there are also some delicate nuances in the physical make-up:
• The will-to-offload after the break at 8:04, 17:36, 21:28 and 47:28
• The soft hands on receipt at 47:25, 69:21 and 72:50
• The natural balance and awareness of the side-line at 21:29
These examples represent a huge reservoir of natural potential waiting to be tapped by coaching in Australia at the professional level – Daryl Gibson at the Tahs and Stephen Larkham with the Wallabies. That potential is raw, but even in its current state, it may be worth the final 20 or so minutes of a Test match in June.
I will conclude with my favourite piece of Naiyaravoro action from the Scarlets game. Technically, it is a cleanout. In reality, it is only a nudge by a very large and powerful man, which takes two opponents out of the play like wooden skittles.
John
Guest
A reader from the U.S. here. Totally agree about Higginbotham. Give him a few starts and he would've shined at 8. Here's something I don't get. Why is Liam Gill always left out? Just saw he didn't make the last round of cuts for the squad. I'm blown away he doesn't get more of a shot. In my opinion almost as athletic as Hooper and a better ball carrier than pocock. And he's just as good at pilfering the ball.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
That last line is so true. Nadolo, Goneva, Nayacalevu, Tikoirotuma and a host of others. All natural wings who've gotten shoe-horned into centre. :)
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Interesting case Fin. I suspect he'd be a 'special case' no.8 forward now. Fit him in between Francois Louw and Marcell Coetzee today (or have him at 6 with Vermeulen at 8) and you'd have a very tidy back row! He'd also fit the development of a new, more supple Springbok style.
Fin
Guest
Do you think Bobby Skinstad would have had a better career in the outside backs?
CUW
Guest
Nandolo played 12 for fiji in 2014 then went to wing during world cup. he was also the first choice place kicker. in the world cup think Volovola took over that. now that Patrick Osborne has gone to fiji , they may play him on the left wing and Nandolo in cetners again. :) if u kick a bush in FIJI , 3 wingers will fall out :P
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
H was straight up about it as usual :D
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
When I was researching Fiji before the WC I was dearly hoping they would select Nadolo at 12!
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
A couple of weeks ago Eddie squashed Armitage's hopes of playing for England when SA was looking for encouragement to return to the AP. Before the 6N he said he would select a specialist 7, then picked Haskell/Robshaw - the same partnership on the flanks as in the 2015 6N under Stuart Lancaster. So Eddie says whatever he feels is right at the time and then forgets about it as if it never existed. As long as he keeps winning, no-one will dare take him to task in the media or anywhere else. Clifford is undoubtedly quicker than the incumbents but I'm not convinced it is enough to win him the 7 spot. Luke Wallace was after all Harlequins first choice 7 this season, not Clifford.
Who?
Guest
Completely agree that the difference in eras makes it hard to compare Nadolo and Lomu. I think Nadolo has a better step, but Lomu had such a fantastic Maori sidestep (yeah, I know, he was Tongan!). Just more explosive - like Savea. And, of course, Lomu, even at his explosive best, was always at 50% of peak health, given his struggles. It's funny that we've come to a point where we don't just differentiate between big wings and small wings, but between different types of big wing!!! I rate Nadolo over Naiyaravoro because he's in shape. He's quicker than Taqele (well, he won the battle between the two last time they played, in 2015). Plus the other strings to his bow, which he's shown, but Taqele hasn't. It's also interesting to note that it's been reported that Nadolo would rather play 12... And I believe he did play 12 (not full time) for Fiji.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
Graham Henry's such a gentleman Nicholas.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
But in those days Nicholas the Australian talent pool was at a terrible low from which it has dramatically recovered at least in the backs. The quality and quantity of backline talent available now is a multiple of then. It used to be a case that there were a few good players in the backs, and the rest were almost anyone available. The really low point was when Drew Mitchell was wildly out of form, but went on starting because there was simply no one else who could conceivably play test rugby on the wing. Incidentally the desire to keep Horne and not to move Folau is indicative of much thinking in Australian rugby: don't change anything whatever it is.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
I think Holmes is marginally better in the scrum, but Kepu offers more impact around the ground, without sacrificing set piece.
CUW
Guest
@ TIMBO imo , the next england 3rd row will be Nathan Hughes , Jack Clifford and Billy Vunipolla. (Hughes qualifies after OZ tour). That will have sufficient power and pace to take on anything the blacks can put out. Itoje Kruis Launchbury the 3 2nd rowers (backed up by old men like Laws Atwood ). Sam Underhill I think has 2 years to finish his degree. Unless Jones goes for that exceptional circumstances clause (or whatever they call it) , he will not play for England soon. then again , he could decide to stop studying and play rugger :)
CUW
Guest
NAndolo is more skilled with his hands - like most fijians , but he does not have the pace of Lomu. in fact nandolo is a slow wing on a foot race. i doubt he can beat a guy on the outside or chasedown a nother, the secret to his success is , when he is allowed to build momentum and crash into the defence (like that guy in X MEN :) ). best eg was when he bumped off a BLUES player. its simple physics ( f = ma where force = mass x acceleration. higher mass means more force :D) also i think he is a lot wider than Lomu. he resembles more like the auzzy Fijian wing Naiya.... Lomu and Savea (savea before mcdonalds :P ) look more alike.
SDHoneymonster
Guest
@Train Without A Station (I can't seem to find the reply button to some of these comments this far down a thread - is it pretty obvious and I'm just being immensely stupid? It's always a possibility...) - don't underestimate just how much England missed Hartley at the World Cup. It's arguable whether he should or would be starting over George if he weren't captain (probably not in my opinion) but one thing he does do is solidify the set piece. He's a strong scrummager especially in comparison to Youngs, who by international front row norms nowadays is really quite small and whose lack of pushing power and vulnerability helped lead to Marler being pinged for boring in so often, and the scrum was then weakened further by Lancaster feeling the need to include Parling and Wood, both lacking in grunt, to try and cover for Youngs' line-out throwing woes. Which is a very long-winded way of saying I don't think Australia will be dominant at the set-piece like they were in the World Cup game.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
All sensible thoughts Timbo. It will be interesting to see if Eddie (or his Saracens support coaches) sees it that way - they seem to look at Itoje as mainly a lock. England's version of the Cheika problem - how to get all your best blokes on the field at the same time!
CUW
Guest
but MR BISHOP, how can Jones play Robshaw at 7 after calling him a 6.5 during RWC and all the other shortcomings of his game AND saying England made a big mistake not taking Armitage to world cup ?? he will look like a fool and moreover the english press will make him look like a fool :) that is one reason he Played HAslkell at 7 and put Robshaw at 6. like it or not his preferred 7 during 6N was Haskell , despite how silly it sounds :P as i have said over and over , he was able to have two big slow flanks , only becoz the 6N allowed it . however if Jones is the meticulous student and tactician most people say he is , then definitely he would have seen that the auzzy flanks are much quicker and more skilled at breakdowns. that is why i think he will go with Haskell / Robshaw , Clifford and Vunipola with Harrison on the bench. also look at the squad composition ; he brought Harrison Clifford Haskell Robshaw - all four can play on either side as flanks and in Clifford's case at 8 as well. the most likely scenario is Launchbury and Harrison on the bench. Haskell / robshaw goes off and Itoje shifts to 6.replaced by Launchbury. Vunipolla off for Clifford to go to 8 and harrison to take 7.
Timbo
Roar Rookie
I'll jump in there, Nicholas, if you don't mind. I would love to see a 6, 7 ,8 of Itoje, Clifford and Vunipola. I'm uncomfortable leaving a world class player like Launchbury out, and I think a lineout of Kruis, Launchbury, and Itoje (as well as Clifford) could severely disrupt the Wallabies. You lose no pace in Itoje over Robshaw and gain some physicality. Clifford is a gamble at '7', but then again so is Haskell as he's hit and miss in that position. You do lose experience, but I think England need to go for it. A Robshaw-Haskell flanker combo is a risk. Unless you're dominating the gain line and have constant go forward, Pocock would cause havoc again at the breakdown. Underhill may well be the eventual answer at 7, and I like Beaumont to come into the mix at 8 next year, but that would be my backrow. Robshaw, Vunipola, Haskell would be the superficially 'safer' bet (although I think it comes with big risks), but England need to push on now.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
I was surprised that Spies stuck around at 8 as long as he did, even in some top Springbok sides like the 2009 (v Lions) version. Hard to compare Nadolo and Lomu because Nadolo is playing in an improved professional setting to Lomu. Nadolo has more strings to his bow than Lomu (he can kick), would love to see him in an AB side, jostling with Savea for 11 slot! I think England's confidence will come from the fact that they've now won a championship after so many near misses between 2012-2015. Amazing what winning something does to a team, esp after they've been accused of being 'nearly men'.
CUW
Guest
@ Nicholas Bishop : they shud have gone to RWC with Fardy , Pocock , Higginbotham and Hooper on the bench (this is the ideal situation). since this did not happen now one component is already gone. atm the best would be Fardy , Pocock , Mccalmann with Hooper off the bench. IMO Palu has had like 2 half games in the very recent past at a level expected of a test 8. whereas BMAC has been playing consistently well over the current season . (lets also not forget he plays for the FARCE - it must be hard to keep going at a high level in a team beaten every time they play). since Houston has not played in super , cant comment how good he is. from the little i have seen of Cheika , I would expect him to play Houston Horwill ( and the fijian) straight up. past says this - he played Mumm Mitchell and Giteau straight away. He went to england to watch them play and something must have clicked inside for him to ask them to come back to auzzy. also there must be something irritating about Higginbotham for Cheika to not take him to world cup or ask if he wants to come back. uin fact he made noises about coming back but Cheika said nothing about Higginbotham , so i get the feeling a door is shut on him. so in all probability chieka will use Houston either off the bench or as a starter. with Fardy Pocock Houston playing the bench has to be a 2nd row and hooper. fardy is usually a 80 minute player so likely scenario is that both 2nd rowers come off, one sub and fardy goes there. then Pocok and Hooper play as flanks with houston. the definitive fact here is the trico of fardy pocok hooper are certainties as forwards in the 23. just like foley and folau are certainties in the backs.