As the New South Wales Blues squad was read out last week, one selection stood out among the Maroon-blooded supercoaches I converse with. James Maloney.
While some might debate the choice of Robbie Farah over Michael Ennis, the omission of Beau Scott, or the left-field promotion of Dylan Walker, it was the selection of Maloney that we all agreed was most heavily bound to the fates.
The Maloney decision could prove to be the defining moment of Origin this year, with potentially dire consequences for the Blues in Game 1 setting the course for the rest of the series.
With ball in hand Queensland will relentlessly pursue Maloney, and will seek to gain the territorial ascendancy via his channel. If they win Game 1 on the back of this 2013 strategy, Laurie Daley could be forced to try yet another halves combination in Game 2 at Lang Park.
Barring key Maroon injuries or an underdog victory for the ages, the Blues will head back to Sydney for Game 3, daunted by the possibility of a 3-0 Queensland whitewash.
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As good as the form has been for Maloney at club level there is no hiding his defensive frailties on the Origin arena. Out of any player on the field, Maloney has the highest amount of missed tackles in 2016 (missed tackles per minutes played ratio).
Not only that, he’s polling worse than 2015. He had missed 57 tackles in 2013 before Origin, a total of 103 tackles in 2014 (third behind Chris Sandow and Luke Brooks), 109 in 2015 (worst in comp) and has missed 48 tackles so far in 2016 to be sitting second.
If he isn’t already having recurring nightmares about a rampaging Sam Thaiday, there’s a good chance he will be when the whistle blows. And when Slammin’ Sam takes a rest, expect Josh Papalii to maintain the Maloney rage.
Unless Daley has figured out a way to hide his five-eighth in the defensive line, this one selection may well signal the death knell for his NSW coaching tenure, more so because it will be viewed as an obvious error in hindsight, given the stand-out lessons of 2013.
Coach Daley will be guilty of having a short memory, and making the same mistake twice.
For the record, an Adam Reynolds-Josh Reynolds halves pairing would have provided the right balance behind the Blues’ behemoth pack, and denied Queensland an opportunity to exploit a substantial defensive weakness.
If Maloney gets steamrolled again tonight, expect that to be the end of his Origin career. If he gets man of the match, expect this armchair prognosticator to be eating his maroon hat.
Matt McDonald
Roar Rookie
My main concern is how Maloney and Reynolds; both players who are good at game management and very capable of controlling a game, come together to execute a cohesive game plan. None the less - within the tempest of Origin, I feel both players cool heads and compartmentalization could prove invaluable to the blues...Or kill us - who the hell knows?
V.O.R.
Guest
It's well documented that Maloney's defense is a chink in the armour of NSW. If NSW have to compensate for him in defense then this opens up other opportunities for the experienced QLD attacking backs to exploit. No doubting it, Daley has taken a serious gamble.
Alex L
Roar Rookie
In terms of the tactics it's not different, in terms of the personnel involved it's different -- though how much is up for debate when teams like Melbourne can roll out a right edge of Cronk, Proctor, Chambers, and Vunivalu.
Clarence Worley
Roar Rookie
Scott, as in the author of the first comment. 'Extra points' referred to Maloney. Re: It's no different. It is. It's origin.
Craig
Guest
Scott could provide the Blues with the extra points they've been missing? If Scott was picked, it would be purely for his defence, he would contribute very little in attack. Scott is technically a good defender, he is a liability in his decision making. He rushes out of the line, gives away stupid penalties. I think NSW is better off without him. Every game Maloney plays the opposition targets him in defence. It's no different.
Alex L
Roar Rookie
He'll be defending between Jennings and Cordner, but thinking back to 2013 if hiding him between Hoffman and Jennings didn't work it's hard to imagine the change to Cordner fixing it.
Clarence Worley
Roar Rookie
Yeah Scott, he could provide the Blues with the extra points they've been missing. He is up against Smith/JT/Cronk though who are adept at directing their running forwards in the right channels. If Maloney defends where he normally defends you'd think he's going to have quite an extreme defensive load, which will make it harder for him to be at his best in attack. I guess that's what makes a champion though, let's see if he's up to it.
Kaks
Roar Guru
That's why I'm worried that Scott was not selected in this NSW team. I would feel much better about Maloney's defensive deficiencies with Scott standing next to him. That said, he is picked for his attacking game - so hopefully he helps put some points on the scoreboard!
Scott Pryde
Expert
Absolutely - his form on attack has been fantastic though. His defence leaves a lot to be desired, but if he can be hidden with Morris and Cordner for example, he should be hidden enough.