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Tomorrow night sees the first match of State of Origin played for 2016, at ANZ Stadium in Sydney. Can the Maroons continue Mal Menginga’s legacy, or will the Blues show Game 3 last year was merely a hiccup?
We probably won’t know the answer to those questions until mid-July, but by the end of tomorrrow’s 80 minutes we will know…
More Origin
» Queensland will win Origin again and I couldn’t care less
» State of Origin Game 1 preview
» State of Origin teams
» No excuse for NSW come Game 1
Will Kevin Walters get ‘Ivan Henjak syndrome’?
It’s as consistent as gravity in modern sport: the coach immediately appointed to succeed a legend fails miserably.
The obvious example is Sir Alex Ferguson’s departure from Old Trafford, with Manchester United having last week appointed their third manager since the legendary Scot hung up the hairdryer.
But the bloke unlucky enough to stand in the dugout the first season after Fergie, David Moyes, didn’t even see out an entire season.
In the NRL, Wayne Bennett has left three careers in smoking ruins since he first left the Broncos at the end of 2008 – anyone want to put Ivan Henjack, Steve Price or Rick Stone in charge of a first-grade side?
Now Kevin Walters steps into the breach left by Mal Meninga, who coached the Maroons to nine Origin titles in ten years, one of the greatest records in any sport.
The fact he was the QRL’s second choice, after Cowboys mentor Paul Green turned them down, wouldn’t exactly fill those north of the Tweed with confidence. Nor would the fact Walters couldn’t even hold a successful training camp at the start of the year, with eight young players sneaking out for a few frothies and subsequently being barred from selection for 12 months.
There’s every chance this first game will be grind-it-out sort of affair, decided by a penalty or field goal. So a loss won’t necessarily tell us much about Walters’ capabilities as a mentor.
But if the Blues chalk up the kind of win they were used to when Andrew Johns was still playing, it could well be that Queensland’s famous ‘pick and stick’ policy will not apply to their coach beyond this series.
Are the Blues halves any chop?
Yes, it’s the most boring, repetitive Origin question of the last ten years, but with a rookie 7 and a 6 who last wore Blue in 2014, we once again have to ask whether NSW’s halves are up to the task.
Reynolds and Maloney are both tremendous kickers – it will be interesting to see who is thrown the tee for conversion and penalty attempts – with the former one of the competition’s best general-play kickers. A lack of attacking pressure due to poor last-tackle options plagued the Blues last year, but with these two running the show, you would think that won’t be an issue on Wednesday night.
However if you’ve had Matt Scott and Sam Thaiday running at you all night, fatigue can lead the best kicker to make some silly decisions.
Which raises the issue of whether Reynolds and Maloney will handle the defensive workload, as both are regarded as liabilities in the tackle. Of course, being a top-notch defender is not a prerequisite for being a successful Origin half – look at Johnathan Thurston.
But will NSW’s forwards ensure their halves aren’t exploited?
When does old age set in?
Queensland have had the ‘Dad’s Army’ tag applied for years now, but they have continued to make fools of the doubters.
Still, Father Time is undefeated. Eventually, even the best players get too old to perform. The smart ones have retired by then, but history is littered with athletes who held on for one season too long.
So let’s have a quick run down on some ages: Corey Parker is 34; Thurston, Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk are all 33 this year; Nate Myles, Sam Thaiday and Matt Scott are going on 31. And 29-year-old Greg Inglis wears more strapping tape than Tutankhamun.
This child of the ’80s is hardly about to call any of them old, and modern sport science is at such a point where athletes are continuing to perform into their late 30s. But it’s not beyond the realm of possibility the famed Queensland loyalty to those who have been there and done it will one day come back to bite them, by selecting guys who can still perform for their club but are no longer up to the pace and intensity of Origin.
Has that year arrived? Honestly, I don’t think so. But it’s coming like a freight train.
Are the Blues rookies ready?
There’s a long-held belief that you either are or are not an Origin player.
Greg Bird? Made for Origin. Jamie Soward? Despite playing one very strong game in a tight series, the Penrith half is not an Origin player.
Robbie Farah? Ask Steve Roach.
NSW are about to find out whether a host of youngsters are at the start of a long career wearing blue, or are destined for the Jarrod Mullen pile.
We’ve already discussed Reynolds, who will be the 18th half since Joey Johns. Can he perform well enough to be named in Game 2? Once upon a time that wouldn’t be considered an achievement – these days it’s the best Blues fans can hope for.
It’s encouraging for the Blues that Josh Mansour and Dylan Walker have both already represented Australia, so are familiar with the rigours of top-flight representative football – and there’s certainly an argument to be made that the Kiwis are every bit as ferocious a test as the Maroons. But lining up alongside the likes of Thurston, Smith and Cronk is a very different beast to playing against them.
Matt Moylan faces probably the sternest test of all, with bombs expected to rain down on the Penrith custodian all night, with a stampeding pack Queenslanders ready to pummel him into the turf if he’s up to the task of catching the pill. He can expect to be called upon as the last line of defence throughout the night as well.
Queensland have the advantage of half as many question marks, with just two debutants.
Is Greg Inglis injured?
First, let’s just make this absolutely clear: a down-on-form Greg Inglis is still a bloke any rugby league team – probably most rugby union teams too – would be happy to have.
And, as the old saying goes, form is temporary, class is ten years of trampling New South Welshmen.
But is GI struggling to perform because his teammates at South Sydney are just a bit crap compared to their 2014 iteration, or are the suggestions he’s injured on the money?
If it’s the former, then Queenslanders need not fear. The guys he’s lining up alongside in maroon are the best in the business, and surely when he’s back in a familiar environment where everything just seems to hum along, he’ll be at his destructive best.
But if it’s the latter, then Queensland have a problem. And the fact they have selected Darius Boyd as Billy Slater’s replacement at fullback ahead of Inglis speaks volumes. Sure, they can say they believe Inglis’ best position is centre, but if that’s the case, then why was Boyd still playing on the wing and Inglis shifted to the back when Slater was injured in last year’s series?
There’s nowhere to hide in Origin, but if you do try, you’ll be found a lot sooner playing fullback than in the centres.
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