South Africa versus Ireland series preview

Ireland’s 2016 June Series kicks off next Saturday in DHL Newlands Stadium in Cape Town. There isn’t much optimism for a first-ever Irish win on South African soil, and for good reason.

The Springboks regularly enjoy kicking Northern Hemisphere visitors up and down the length of the pitch and you only have to look back the score lines from the last few years’ June Tests to see just how formidable they are on their home patch:

– 22-17 v England (June ninth 2012)
– 36-27 v England (June 16th 2012)
– 14-14 v England (June 23rd 2012)
– 44-10 v Italy (June eighth 2013)
– 30-17 v Scotland (June 15th 2013)
– 38-16 v Wales (June 14th 2014)
– 31-30 v Wales (June 21st 2014)
– 55-6 v Scotland (June 28th 2014)

Their 2012 games against England seem like reasonably close contests, going by the results. In reality, South Africa were in control of each of them for most of the 80 minutes, with the 14-all draw being the only blemish.

It is difficult to pick any one area through which Ireland can develop enough of an advantage to eke out a win. The physicality that the Springboks play with is difficult to live with for one whole game, never mind three in a row in front of passionate home support.

One certainty heading into this series is that Ireland will struggle in the set-pieces. Their lineout was reasonably solid against Wales, Italy and Scotland earlier this year, but it faltered under the pressure England exerted, and, frustratingly so, it malfunctioned every time they got into the French 22.

Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha may not be around to lay waste to opposition lineouts anymore, but Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager know how to make their presence felt. Securing the ball at lineout time can be trying in and of itself and having two colossal locks imposing themselves on proceedings will make conditions downright claustrophobic for Ireland.

As well as having issues on their own throw, Ireland haven’t been competitive in the air to any great effect lately. They will have to put a lot of effort into disrupting the South African throw because if they are allowed to have clean possession at the lineout, the Springboks will set their maul and squeeze 9-12 points out of Ireland using their preferred offensive weapon.

Joe Schmidt has a tough decision to make in the second row. Devin Toner’s set-piece dependability will be vital, but the dynamism that Iain Henderson and Ultan Dillane offer would be useful against an abrasive Springbok pack. While Dillane’s sensational form should warrant a starting place, experience will probably tip the balance in favour of Toner and Henderson.

It wasn’t just out of touch where Ireland were less than comfortable during this year’s Six Nations. They only had stability in the scrum when Mike Ross was on the pitch. It is worrying for them that none of the alternatives that were available during that period were up to scratch technically. These are bad omens as South Africa are the best in the world at strangling teams at tight.

If Ireland are to be competitive in this series, they will need to take the scrum out of the equation by going for channel-one ball. The last time these sides met, Ireland were under immense pressure at scrum-time, but on their own put-in, clean strikes from Sean Cronin to the base meant that they could get the ball away quickly, without conceding a penalty.

The breakdown is one area where Ireland could have an edge. South Africa tend to select a back row of 6’4”, 18-stone juggernauts, which can be good and bad at the same time. The advantages are that it gives them a lot of ball-carrying power as well as big hitters in defence. The disadvantages are that it can be hard for men this size to get low quickly and Ireland exploited this back in November of 2014.

However, Ireland’s breakdown work has taken steps backwards over the last two seasons. In this year’s Six Nations, they were effective on the ground against Wales, Italy and Scotland but sloppy against France and England. It doesn’t help that they are heading into this series without an international-standard openside flanker, with Seán O’Brien, Tommy O’Donnell and Josh van der Flier all unavailable due to injury or personal commitments.

It’s not just up front where Ireland have cause for concern. South Africa’s back line poses a serious threat. They will be without Handré Pollard due to injury but Elton Jantjies has been in superb form for The Lions this year.

With an impressive combination of skills, vision and footwork, he offers South Africa something at ten that they have lacked for a long time. If he fails to recover from his recent injury problems, South Africa have the experience of Pat Lambie to fall back on.

Further out, the Springboks have a centre partnership that could be the best in international rugby for the next few years in Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel. De Allende’s strength in contact is nothing new but he has plenty of gas as well.

Kriel’s turn of pace and intelligent running lines saw him lacerate the Ma’a Nonu-Conrad Smith defensive axis in Johannesburg last July, which tells you everything you need to know about the player’s potential.

Willie le Roux is also a nightmare for opposition defence coaches and his injections into the line from full back caused Ireland no end of trouble 19 months ago. Trying to cope with a back line of such potency while adopting a new defensive system under Andy Farrell will be challenging for Ireland.

One of the cornerstones of Ireland’s last win over South Africa was the masterful kicking out of hand from Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton. Not only did they use the boot as a means of establishing field position and regaining possession; both of their tries came from kicking into the space behind the South African back three.

Ireland have been dealt a major blow in this regard, with Sexton set to miss the series with a shoulder injury. Much of the pressure that Ireland exert on other teams comes from Sexton’s aptitude for putting boot to ball.

Ian Madigan’s pending move to France has seen him drop in Schmidt’s pecking order, with Paddy Jackson certain to start for Ireland now. The Ulster out-half has arguably had his best season yet. Clever decision-making, quality distribution and positioning right on the gain line have been regular features of his performances, but his limited involvement with the national set-up over the last year may hinder his team in this series.

Despite his improvements, kicking out of hand is still his biggest flaw, and this is one of the reasons why Schmidt has previously demonstrated a preference for other players.

Another issue with Ireland’s tactic of aerial bombardment is that, much like their work at the breakdown, it doesn’t reap the same reward it used to. They did find grass behind Italy and Scotland in the Six Nations, but they weren’t able to do so against the more organised teams in the tournament.

The South African coaching ticket and video analysts will have done their homework this time round and there is little chance of their players affording Ireland the same amount of space in the back field.

Ireland have attempted to compensate for the shortcomings in their kick-chase oriented game plan recently by playing more expansive rugby, which worked up to a point. They scored several tries against Italy and Scotland, but they weren’t accurate enough at the final phase against the better Welsh and English scramble defences.

Schmidt has come under intense scrutiny in the media for not selecting Matt Healy, Niyi Adeolokun or Tiernan O’Halloran in his initial squad because of their attacking exploits, instead opting for Keith Earls, Andrew Trimble, Luke Fitzgerald, Rob Kearney and Dave Kearney. What Schmidt’s critics have overlooked, though, is that the Connacht back three have question marks over their defence and aerial ability.

Healy and O’Halloran have been added to the squad since, with Fitzgerald and the Kearney brothers being ruled out through injury. There is no doubt that these two players would contribute a huge amount in terms of pace (something that Ireland lacked during the Six Nations) if given the chance to start, but throwing them in the deep end against a team who play territorial rugby better than anyone else may not be the ideal scenario.

One factor that could work in Ireland’s favour is South Africa’s appointment of a new head coach. Whenever this happens, there is usually a settling in period that follows, although Allister Coetzee’s previous experience of coaching at Test level should see him get his team up to speed with his methods quickly enough.

Having to bring in a new coach and use inexperienced half-backs at the same time is not convenient for the Springboks, but they have enough strength in depth in every other department to cope with these changes.

A series win for Ireland is unlikely, considering where they are at this moment in time. It has been a disappointing season and some horror-show performances from their provinces in the pool stages of the Champions Cup have meant that few of their players have experienced high-intensity rugby since the end of the Six Nations.

End-of-season fatigue and the further injuries that are bound to happen mean that a set of results similar to their last tour of New Zealand (back in 2012) is on the cards for Ireland: one game where they’ll be competitive, one where they’ll lose by a significant margin (20-30 points) and one landslide victory for the hosts.