Once again many pundits in the pre-season were writing the Sydney Swans’ obituary. Once again, they have been proved wrong.
With the mid-season bye approaching, the Swans find themselves third on the ladder with the second-best percentage in the competition.
Had it not been for the stumble last weekend against Greater Western Sydney the club would be atop the ladder.
Since 2003, the Swans have missed the finals just once – in 2009 when they finished 12th. In that time, Sydney have won two flags, contested a further two grand finals and been eliminated at the preliminary final stage twice.
While the red and whites have not had the premiership success of the likes of Hawthorn (four flags) and Geelong (three) since 2003, Sydney’s 12 finals campaigns in the past 13 seasons betters all other clubs – Geelong have contested September action ten times and Hawthorn and West Coast on eight occasions.
Year after year the Swans fly under the radar.
Like those to their north, they play in a market where Australian rules football is very much a second-tier sport in the eyes of the media and while the southern states report on the code fiercely Sydney is seldom mentioned.
This season, with the rise of GWS, the club is even taking somewhat of a backseat in the Sydney press.
For coach John Longmire, it is a perfect situation.
The talk nationally has mainly surrounded GWS’s looming maiden finals series, Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield-led charge, speculation of whether or not Hawthorn can claim four in a row, the implosion of Fremantle, and the continued trials at both Collingwood and Richmond.
Meanwhile, the Swans just keep purring along. Another finals campaign appears a formality and another flag a very real possibility.
One of the strengths of Sydney over the past dozen years has been their ability to replenish the club’s stocks despite the luxury of top-end draft picks.
The club secured the services of the likes of Craig Bolton, Kieran Jack, Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker, Tom Mitchell, Sam Reid and Kurt Tippett through various drafts while also proving highly successful during the annual trade period.
While Lance Franklin’s stellar ten-year, $10 million deal to whip him away from Hawthorn under free agency remains one of the biggest coups of recent times, Sydney also traded successfully for the services of Josh Kennedy, Ted Richards, Rhyce Shaw, Craig Bird, Martin Mattner, Darren Jolly and Ben McGlynn.
While many clubs bemoan the performance of their recruiting department, Sydney have deftly been able to maintain a high-quality, highly competitive list for over 12 years.
The current squad has plenty of class.
One of the hallmarks of the Swans’ recent success is its midfield. For both class and depth, few in the competition can compete.
The club is blessed with the perfect blend of in-and-under on-ballers and outside runners who rack up heavy possessions. So far this season, Hannebery averages 31 disposals, with Kennedy (30), Mitchell (28), Parker (27) and Jack (23) all rolling through the midfield and wreaking havoc at various times.
On the end of much of the midfield’s enterprise is Franklin.
To date, the proven match-winner has kicked 43 goals to lead the charge for the Coleman Medal. While ‘Buddy’ is a handful inside 50, he has also run amok up the ground.
On Sunday, against GWS, he lined up on a wing early in the game. His ability to run and carry the ball and then kick it forward 50-60 metres when playing up the ground puts enormous pressure on opposition defences. Finding a suitable opponent for him is a major challenge.
While Franklin more often than not is the go-to man inside 50, the Swans have found numerous avenues to goal. Their midfielders are renowned for hitting the scoreboard, and likes of McGlynn, Isaac Heaney and elevated rookie Tom Papley have also regularly bobbed up.
Down back, Sydney have plenty of steel and rebounding ability.
Richards and Heath Shaw fill the primary key defender’s role while skipper Jarrad McVeigh, Dane Rampe, Nick Smith and Jeremy Laidler provide plenty of run.
With the retirement of Mike Pyke, Kurt Tippett has been used more on the ball this season. Coming off a 44-goal season last year – his best return since 2010 – he has carried the bulk of the ruck work this season while also managing to kick 15 goals.
The club was struck a blow on Sunday when Tippett succumbed to a hamstring tendon injury which is expected to sideline him for up to six weeks.
Callum Sinclair, who was traded to Sydney last year from West Coast in return for Lewis Jetta, will now shoulder the rucking duties with his sidekick, should one be deemed necessary from week-to-week. It is a choice between Sam Naismith, Toby Nankervis and Tom Derickx who have each been playing in the NEAFL in recent times.
The loss of Tippett will hurt the Swans.
Either side of the bye, over the next six weeks Sydney meet Melbourne (H), Western Bulldogs (H), Geelong (A), Hawthorn (H), Carlton (H) and Fremantle (A).
Sinclair will be an able replacement for Tippett but the lack of a genuine two-prong ruck combination will put real pressure on the midfield against the classier opponents.
It appears that the competition at the top of the ladder will be tight come season’s end.
The period sans Tippett will be challenging but a positive win-loss ratio through that period will place the club well in contention for a one-two finish at the end of the home-and-away series.
Come September, and deep into it, the Sydney Swans will likely find themselves front and centre in the AFL media.
For now, Longmire and his charges will simply continue to do what they do best – play tough and uncompromising football – and hope the other clubs continue to dominate the AFL discussion.
Johnny Banter
Guest
This shows why you should never rely on stats alone. Swans have played 3 games in very wet conditions, with a 4th coming on Sunday. Naturally that reduces scoring ability! Check out the Swans disposal efficiency - ranked 18th in the league - which is also primarily caused by the glut of wet weather games.
Johnny Banter
Guest
COLA was removed on new contracts after 2013 and will have been fully phased out by the end of this season. I'm surprised so few people seem to be aware of this.
Johnny Banter
Guest
ANZ stadium is too small for AFL footy so I think both teams would prefer the SCG. Having said that; it'll be at Spotless or ANZ.
Liam
Guest
Angela, I find it interesting that you immediately attack the man if they challenge Sydney's right to have their academy, something that I've stated I don't have a problem with. If you were responding to someone else, then I apologise, but there is a discussion to be had about the benefits to the competition for the northern clubs that having both a COLA and an academy system, because one keeps talent coming in outside the draft - talent that, as you acknowledged in your comment, is placed into a cutting edge development environment and a winning culture, in the case of Sydney - as well as the draft picks through the draft based on ladder position, and finally the COLA, which allows clubs with one to retain the players who would otherwise leave based on money or lack of success. I say it again, I do not have an issue with each individual part of this; my issue comes with the combination of them, which allows sides to artificially defy the draft as a means of bottoming out by bringing in talent outside the draft, and the ability to pay players who would leave more than any other can match. Take one away, and the setup is fairer on all sides; take the COLA away, and the bottom 12 at Sydney over the last five years might not be the same as they are now; take away the academy, and Sydney no longer have the influx of talent defiant of the draft that they had before, and while they can retain talent better than other clubs, it allows them to stave off true bottoming out. In the last 15 years, Sydney has won 2 flags, played in 4 Grand finals, and have made a habit of never missing out on the finals. Without the culture you mention, Sydney would not be the bastion of quality it is now, but it isn't the culture that ensures Sydney gets more talent than they should, and can retain it longer than anyone else.
TomC
Roar Guru
@Pumping Dougie: Sydney traded their first and second round picks plus Craig Bird to get Mills. Their second pick in the draft was #51. And as you hopefully know and are just pretending not to, Heeney was drafted under a different system. It's clearly not a huge advantage. And once again, the only arguments raised against the academies rely on not understanding or pretending not to understand the system and how it works.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Glenn - also worth noting sustained success while bringing in six debutantes this season as well.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Michael, I think the Swans are favorites for this year's flag, although it is wide-open. But why did the Swans lose to GWS last weekend and in 2014 why were such an experienced outfit and well-performed team that season smashed in the 2014 grand final? These are the doubts that hover over Sydney for me. Gecko's right, their recent record, especially their vaunted midfield, is suspect in big matches and need to prove themselves in this regard. I also think their backline is slow and susceptible when the ball comes in quickly. But you know them better - what do you think?
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Who did the Swans trade away to pick-up Two of the best young midfielders in the country, Heeney and Mills? Did they give up pick 1 to 5? Don't think so. Did they give up a gun player? Don't think so. It's still a huge advantage they're enjoying.
Stewie
Guest
Agreed with depth, although Hewett, Papley, and to a lesser extent Robinson have slotted themselves into the best 22, which wasn't expected. If they weren't up to scratch, the Swans would be in even more trouble!
ken
Guest
They cannot win the flag !! Put a red line through the SWANS ROOS and WEAGLES ...
clipper
Guest
Agree with both Roger and Sonny. The average of near 35k is remarkable in Sydney (I suspect it will take a hit this weekend with bad weather forecast), membership over 50k and a reasonable tv audience, often being the highest rated show on the digital channels. At the beginning is was mainly ex pats who supported them, but this is no longer the case, the vast majority are now Sydney people. On the other hand, it is such a middle class game in Sydney, so is finding it hard to compete with the working class presence of league, as Roger notes. This is particularly apparent for GWS. Don't know how they will plan to change this perception.
AR
Guest
Hawthorn fans admiring Stevie J's skill...and leadership. GWS a genuine top 3 chance. ...welcome to AFL bizzarro world
Penster
Guest
Yeah boo indeed. ANZ is horrible but it's better than the Moore Park netball court (SCG) as a home ground alternative. I'm well and truly on the GWS bandwagon, have been out to Spotless a couple of times to watch them. Clinical in their execution, they picked my Hawks tired old game plan off like cherries, intercepting off half back again and again. Love that Stevie J has a new lease to entertain, he's loving it and for the first time I'm thinking "Stevie J" and "leadership" at the same time. The big question is whether western sydney will get onboard if the team has finals success this year.
Mark
Guest
It is a bit like Union in that way. The North Shore are pretty into the Swans.
Mark
Guest
Not very because Tassie is an Australian Rules state, NSW and QLD are not. It's that simple.
Sonny Ofthewest
Roar Rookie
You're right in that AFL matches draw significantly higher crowds than the NRL, but despite that the locals seem to overwhelmingly prefer League to Aussie Rules. I figure it's because the NRL is a sport unintentionally designed to be watched on TV, while the AFL really shines when you're at the ground watching the teams play. But perhaps it depends on where you live in Sydney. In the couple of years I've been here I've got the impression that up here AFL is considered a sport for toffs, with League being the 'true' working class sport. Which I find hilarious having grown up in Victoria, but hey, whatever gets people turning out to AFL matches!
Gecko
Guest
Thanks Michael for the figures. Two thoughts arise: 1. For guys that never get tagged, Parker, Mitchell and Jack really should have higher disposal averages. In particular, Jack must be in the team for his captaincy because they're very low stats for a midfielder. 2. It'd be interesting to see their stats in big games, like when they got reduced to spectators in the 2014 GF. Some of those boys (Parker in particular) have an average that's inflated during games against bottom teams. I can see Heeney becoming a star midfielder in the near future.
Peppsy
Roar Guru
Didn't Sydney trade for Tippett from Adelaide? And I don't think I've ever seen an article with less criticism of a team. Not even going to mention how they can have really bad days like they did against Brisbane? Okay then.
me too
Guest
Well beaten by GWS, but earlier did the same to them. A good chance they'll play each other in a two versus three. if so i hope it's at Spotless as it wouldn't get much more at ANZ, as we saw last year - even for a final Swans fans don't like going west. But to make top four the Swans will need to navigate safely through rnds 15,16,17. That'll set their likely position - whether top two or top four or not.
Michael Huston
Guest
It deserves the credit it receives. There's no other midfield in the competition with five genuinely great players in there every week as Sydney with Hannebery, Kennedy, JPK, Jack and Parker. The issue with it is that they're actually so good, that we almost crumble whenever they're not firing. About 80% of the time, they'll work together to be the back-bone of our success, which is a pretty phenomenal effort. But that 20% of the time when they aren't completely on, it falls to guys like Lloyd, Cunningham, McGlynn and even guys like Heeney now. Look at the average possessions of our mids in wins/losses ratio and the disparity is pretty clear: Hannebery - 30.3 to 33.3 (he's the only one who actually gets better in losses, but I think that's largely due to his work load) Kennedy - 30.4 to 26.5 Mitchell - 30.3 to 21.3 Jack - 24.4 to 17.3 Parker - 28.9 to 19.7 The most alarming there are Jack, who clearly struggles to even get 20 touches in a loss, and Parker, who averages nearly ten possessions less in losses than wins. Obviously consistency is very hard to achieve, and I'm not complaining about having those genuine stars in our midfield. But the desire to win the ball is a common thread amongst our victories, and the lack thereof desire is also a common thread in our losses. So you may think our midfield is over-rated, but they're clearly the back-bone of the Swans' success, and our success this season will depend largely on how they perform. I think the good news is that Kennedy, Jack and Parker have a great deal of improving to do based on their form of late, and I suspect guys like Lloyd and Heeney will only get better as they get more midfield hours. McVeigh has also returned to form a little which is always handy.