Kurt Tippett’s transformation into an elite ruckman this year was a major reason why Sydney had such a strong start to the season. Now his long-term absence is threatening to scotch the Swans’ premiership push.
Sydney remain well positioned in fourth spot with a 10-4 record. But in a remarkably tight season they could drop to seventh spot if they lose to premiership favourites Geelong at Skilled Stadium this weekend.
The Swans surprised many of us with their striking performances over the first half of this season, defying widespread expectations their young side would not be a premiership threat.
The prolific and mercurial displays of Lance Franklin up front helped drive this success, along with the maturation of young stars like Isaac Heeney and Tom Mitchell. All the while, their greatest weapon – a beastly crew of midfielders – continued to dominate in the clinches.
What put the blood red cherry on this Swan cake was the monumental input of Tippett. Recruited to the Swans on a massive contract as a spearhead, Tippett had garnered plenty of criticism despite being a valuable contributor across his first three seasons up north.
While fellow big money recruit Lance Franklin constantly shaped games with his piercing left boot, Tippett’s influence waxed and waned. Last season he became a more consistent footballer thanks, in part, to spending a greater amount of time outside the forward 50m as a ruckman.
Playing as a backup to veteran big man Mike Pyke, Tippett spent more minutes as a follower than he had since his second season of AFL back in 2009. When he arrived at the Crows, the 200cm teenager had been earmarked as a ruckman-forward, intended to provide a target in attack while also shouldering a significant ruck workload.
Then in that 2009 season he showcased a rare ability to find the goals and so became a key forward who only occasionally helped out in the ruck. He remained such a player for the following five seasons. It wasn’t until Pyke started to slow down last season that Tippett was again asked to play a key role in the ruck.
Seemingly with an eye to Pyke’s impending retirement the Swans brains trust put Tippett on the ball regularly throughout last season and he showed signs that he could, potentially, become a fine number one ruckman.
After Pyke departed, Sydney recruited Callum Sinclair who was coming off a good season as the number two big man to Nic Naitanui at West Coast.
The Swans may have hoped Sinclair would prove capable of holding down the frontline ruck spot, allowing Tippett to spend a majority of each game inside the forward 50. But Sinclair has struggled when handed such responsibility and looks far more comfortable operating in the slipstream of a more physically imposing ruck counterpart.
As Sydney went down by a goal to the Western Bulldogs on the weekend, the ruck contest was crucial. Sinclair was asked to lead the ruck but was clearly outpointed by Bulldogs big men Jordan Roughead and Will Minson.
Tippett was sorely missed. In a short amount of time he has built a fine understanding with the Swans blue chip midfield of Mitchell, Dan Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker and Kieren Jack. In averaging 30 hit outs, 14 touches, three tackles, three clearances and 1.3 goals per game this season, Tippett has been one of the most valuable players in the competition.
Recently I posed the question of who, right now, was the AFL’s supreme ruckman. While Naitanui, Todd Goldstein and Max Gawn were the three big men I put forth, Tippett was only just behind that dominant trio in my mind.
Certainly, with his goal kicking nous, he offers a versatility unrivalled by Naitanui, Goldstein or Gawn. The Swans did not look like the same side in his absence on the weekend.
If they are to snare the flag then Sydney desperately need Tippett fit and controlling the ruck once more. The problem is that, after having surgery on his hamstring, he is not expected to return for at least another six weeks.
Serious hamstring injuries of this kind are very difficult to recover from, particularly in the short term. It will be hard for him to build any momentum before the finals start, and that would be a crushing blow for Sydney and their premiership hopes.
ken
Guest
You heard it hear first 7th.. They may jag 6th at best ..
Richard
Guest
hehe. .They won`t go undeafeated at Kardinia Cat. ( Guaranteed ) I`ll be back here over the coming weeks to tell you..... " I told you so "..
Swannies
Guest
Not at all concerned with Saturday's result...Swans still on track for the Grand Final. If we can somehow claim top 2 then there's no team that can stop us at home. No way Swans will drop another gam to Dogs if they meet again. Longmire will have the boys fired up for Cats. Yes...Tippett will return by September and re-inforce the team. Ken...I agree with Roos in 8 but Cats will finish higher. Don't rule out a late surge by Port either...will have North or WCoast shaking in their boots by round 23.
Michael Huston
Guest
Based on what? The fact we kicked ourselves out of a game and coughed it up in the last few minutes on the weekend? If Tippett's there, the same thing would probably happen (see: Richmond in round eight WITH Tippett playing and dominating Hampson.) Sydney's main issue seems to be there's not enough spread across the best 22. Most weeks this year, our youngsters have really pulled through and done well, and it's lightened the load on the experienced guys. But in cases such as the Bulldogs game, when most of our youngsters didn't really stand up, it's clear absolutely stellar games from guys like Parker, Buddy, Hanners etc. are just not enough to get us over the line. We can assume guys like Hewett, Heeney, Towers, Jones, Mills, Rohan etc. will only get better as they get more form and continuity into their game. But in the mean time, unless our mature players and our youngsters are all on-song at the same time, we're not going to be setting the world on fire. The weekend was a classic case of Western Bulldogs having most, if not all, of their best 22 giving good performances. Having said that, we should have won, and we should be top of the ladder right now. 2016 may be a case of missed opportunities for the Swans, not an injury to one player.
Cat
Roar Guru
He 'liked' your comment, ie: agreed with ...
Cat
Roar Guru
Geelong should be favourites going into every match they have left. All three against contenders are at Kardinia Park. They may well drop another game against a bottom side but they may also go undefeated in the remaining H&A games.
spruce moose
Guest
Geelong in 7? On their run home? Try 3rd.
spruce moose
Guest
Sue me. I think Sam Reid is - by a considerable margin - the most overrated player in Sydney, and in the top 3 for the AFL. What good is taking a contested mark (which, fair play to him, he is very good at) if you can't kick or handball? It's like watching Travis Cloke ply his trade.
Jim
Guest
Our bottom six is still a huge concern for mine. Using the crude measurement of disposals on the weekend, that was: - Heeney (clearly a great player in the making, but in a real funk at the moment) - Sinclair (useless around the ground and in poor form) - Rohan (his forward pressure is great, but he just isn't anywhere near what he should be for a first round draft pick with several years experience [of course taking into account injuries] under his belt. -McGlynn (the end is nigh in my book - I'd drop him for Papley. Just not influencing games as he once did). - Nankervis (again useless round the ground - between him and Sinclair, they took just 1 single mark all game). - Nick Smith (He was 6th lowest disposal getter, but this is ireelevant given he clearly is a classy shut down defender). Add in to that the inexperience of a number of guys (in terms of how many games they've played) - Mills, Hewett, Rose, Towers, Jones and you can see that the tail, when even a few of the big names are off, appears long.
Jim
Guest
I think the swans have overachieved in comparison to my pre-season expectations, and therefore may be coming back to trend a bit over the rest of the season. As you point out Ronan, the loss of Tippett is critical, and I'm not at all convinced of the ability of the Swans medical staff to get players back when they should - so it wouldn't surprise me to not see him again. the Swans really will be kicking themselves though - now having lost 3 close ones (Crows/Richmond/Dogs), and 2 of them they were significant contributors to their own downfall. But footy is a funny game and there is time to turn it around, but the poor performance of Sinclair and Nankervis on Saturday does not inspire much confidence for the period that Tippett is out.
Jim
Guest
I thought Nankervis was dreadful on Saturday and Sinclair not much better. I watched the reserves game before and Naismith, while not outstanding, was very good. Certainly a better option in my opinion, although his man bun is dreadful and should be forcibly removed with a guillotine before he plays another senior afl game.
Jim
Guest
You could argue it wouldn't be close either if the Swans kicked straight. I thought the umpire was mediocre on Saturday but didn't favour either team particularly, and probably evened itself out in the end.
Brad
Guest
This site needs a like button for comments like that
Jim
Guest
If there is one thing almost guaranteed in football, it is that the Swans will bend over and take it on their almost annual pilgramige to Geelong - I don't think this year will be any different, as without Tippett we are going to get caned in the ruck and in particular around the ground.
Sydneygirl
Guest
Tippett a big loss but not as bad as lack of composure from some players in final minutes,but not just at that time. I'm a big fan of Tippo and hope he gets back okay. Meanwhile a couple of other players need to keep their mind on the job for the whole game. That said, dogs played well. A tense last quarter.
andyl12
Guest
Yet when Hawthorn win close ones, that apparently does diminish their chances.
Stewie
Guest
KB & Pat Smith on SEN have both agreed that Mills should have been paid a free for ITB against Stringer when he marked & then goaled in the third Q. It was at a critical moment in the game. Very hard to tell how much of a difference different umpiring would've made
peter
Guest
The Swans got a lot of rough decisions - hands in the back in the goal square by WB - missed by umpires - ludicrous 50m and the fact that Franklin is held by defenders and hardly ever gets a free but you see it your wa. Realistically the Swans didn't show up they were off their game all afternoon.
Bob
Guest
Yep, Christo - they were cruxified by the umps and still got the run on. Would've been another 4 or 5 shots on goal with correct umpiring and a couple less for the Swans.
JohnDee
Guest
I have all 4 in my SC team, so hopefully they all play well! (Mitchell and Parker not TOO well though :) ) Saw Tom Mitchell's game versus Sam Mitchell a few weeks ago, and he did an amazing shut-down job. Very handy player to have. I think Geelong may send Blicavs to Hannebury and throw Danger against Parker head to head. Should be a great contest!