Mission accomplished. Paul Roos is eight games away from finishing a stellar tour of duty with the Melbourne Demons, reviving a team back on the brink of irrelevance.
What’s his next move? Paul Roos should save the Brisbane Lions.
Back in 2012, the Melbourne Football Club were aspiring to be called a rabble. A series of catastrophic on and off field decisions, accumulated over the preceding five or six years, coincided with the League’s expansion era, to consign Melbourne to the role of AFL clown. They had no players, no identity, and no way out.
The AFL, under the iron fist of Andrew Demetriou, sensed this, and phoned a friend: Paul Roos, who was carving out a career as a truly sensible football pundit. A $1 million per year (reportedly) two year deal, with a third year option for Roos, to take over as coach of Melbourne was struck, along with some AFL-led changes off the field in the administration of the club.
It was an experiment in many respects, a test to see just how quickly a club, in modern times, could be turned around with an AFL-initiated intervention. The results speak for themselves: it took 18 months, but by the time the back end of 2015 rolled around it was clear that Melbourne were on the right path.
Now, a lot of this is to do with their significantly improved player identification abilities. Click through to the linked article above, and you’ll see an example of how woeful the Dees administration was at identifying players. In 2009, they had four picks inside the top 20, and arguably picked four of the six worst players in the top 20 of that draft.
Since that dreadful period, the Dees have made good on their mediocrity, and are now chock full of good, young players. They, and the handful of astute veteran additions, are a big reason why Melbourne look like a team primed to rise into finals contention from next year onwards.
Notwithstanding, Roos’ role in Melbourne’s revival has to have been immense. Senior Assistant Simon Goodwin, who takes over from Roos at the end of this season, has been given the keys to a remodelled 80s muscle car – I bet he can’t wait to take it for a spin.
And this is why Paul Roos should become the next coach of the Brisbane Lions.
On almost any measure, this season has been a disaster for Brisbane. They are on track to turn in one of the worst full year defensive performances in AFL history, with a Defensive Efficient Rating of -39.2 through 14 games this year. Their inside 50 differential (-13.7 per game, ranked 18th) points to a host of issues at all points on the ground.
Critical absences haven’t helped, but having all of Dayne Beams, Tom Bell, Allen Christensen, Mitch Robinson, Tom Rockliff and Dayne Zorko available for 100 per cent of the year is unlikely to have made a difference of the scale required to turn this into a decent year. This half dozen, plus newcomer Ryan Bastinac, Pearce Hanley, Daniel Rich and Lewis Taylor are the makings of a very strong midfield. The group’s collective underperformance, both this year and last, is puzzling.
Brisbane’s weaknesses at the bookends are well known, and will take some time to address. Josh Schache looks to have the fundamentals to be a very good key forward, while Daniel McStay and Harris Andrews have similarly looked at home down back – beaten consistently, yes, but displaying the skills required to hold up the fort once they put on a bit of muscle. The rawness of Brisbane’s pillars is probably a big factor behind their inability to make good on attacking thrusts, and to stop their opponents doing the opposite.
But man, that midfield is not terrible, not -14 inside differential week in, week out terrible anyway. Those ten players at the top of the depth chart should not allow the team as a collective to be shredded in the manner that we have grown accustomed to seeing the Lions be shredded.
Current coach Justin Leppitsch is locked in for 2017, with Lions’ CEO Greg Swann preaching stability when the signatures were exchanged earlier this year. That’s fine, and as we discussed yesterday having their respective houses in order is almost certainly a key factor in the success of the new Big Three. You can argue whether that is putting cart before horse; Melbourne has shown that stability can be the horse.
The Lions haven’t had the best time of it lately, only lately stretches all the way back to 2004. Tellingly, the Lions have seen their percentage decline each year since 2012. Swann’s appointment was, in all likelihood, an AFL-led incursion to help bring stability to the club. But there are challenges wherever he would wish to look; the Lions are set to be the last team in the league to have an elite training base, for example.
Brisbane made a decision to back Leppitsch in, and thus far it would appear the playing group has not followed suit. Much of the early season player movement talk has, once again, centred on Brisbane, as it has for the past three years.
This is all sounding pretty familiar, isn’t it?
Save the deplorable drafting, Brisbane find themselves in a situation not dissimilar to Melbourne half a decade ago – defensively inept, lacking a football identity, players heading for the exits. The Dees churned through coaches and administrators, but Brisbane have the relative disadvantage of playing in a more fickle market without the institutional backing of the oldest organised sporting club in the world.
Roos is probably due some time on the pine, after bringing a premiership to Sydney and kick-starting their tenure as a league exemplar, following up with a turnaround at Melbourne. But should he receive a call from the big cheese in, I don’t know, May next year, he’ll know what it’s about.
SOS, Paul. Brisbane needs you.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
The Oak Island Money Pit is just not referenced enough these days. Excellent work Paul D.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Great post Lroy – as you say, the Gold Coast is basically an Oak Island money pit for sporting codes, it is baffling how people responsible for so much money, and presumably possessed with a fair bit of intelligence can disregard the obvious truth – the Gold Coast has never been, and will never be, a sporting club town. It is a city where people go to the beach, to restaurants, to nightclubs – but not to sporting stadiums. Yes there are loads and loads of junior sporting clubs down there, but that doesn’t equate to bums on seats at stadiums. The parents and kids have got better things to do! And playing sport at that age is infinitely preferred to watching it. It doesn’t help that getting around on the Gold Coast is tough, buses are dreadful, trams don’t run out to the stadiums yet, etc etc. I’ve said all this before. Maybe once the tram line makes it out to Metricon you might see more of the holiday crowd going to games, but that’s some years away. I do agree as well that the Suns deal was all about money and nothing to do with building a club from the ground up with a real connection to the gold coast, if they’d wanted to do that they should have upgraded the Southport Sharks to the AFL, rather than parachute in this team of misfits. Look at the side. You’ve got a captain in Ablett who was signed for money, a bunch of players the Lions didn’t want, a bunch of ex-hacks from various clubs like Campbell Brown, Broughton, Bock, various kids that don’t want to be there to varying degrees and Karmichael Hunt who was the most obviously gimmicky signing in existence. The AFL has given the people of the Gold Coast stuff all reason to support this club, the club has given the people little to cheer for and it’s scarcely a wonder that they are as average and irrelevant as they are. A cautionary tale of greed and hubris, that’s the story of the Gold Coast Suns.
Lroy
Guest
Dude, I lived in Brisbane for two different stints in the 1980's and again in the 1990's. I used to drive down to Carrara to watch the bears twice a month... it was always a good trip away for the weekend.. the Bears didnt offer much but we didnt travel to see them, we travelled to see their opposition ;-) plenty of standing room, no ques for the beer or pies, it was like attending pre season games. Fast forward to 1996 -1999, the Gabba was nearly always full, passionate Lions fans getting right into it... I recall their average winning margin at home was 50 or so points. My beloved West Coast Eagles got flogged by 150 points one night.. in the most complete performance I ever saw by any side ever..the Lions were simply awesome.. funny thing is, the Eagles werent that bad.. they started of ok... had some big names and a lot of good players in their side... they ended up making finals that year, but on this dark night they just got obliterated... So to make a short story long... there was NEVER a snowflakes chance in hell that the GC were going to financially viable... everybody knew it... no sporting franchise yet in any code has survived on its own down there. Yet the AFL went along with it... as predicted, all the GC would do, would bleed fans and sponsorship from the Lions... So who benefited?? A bunch of autocrats at the AFL got million dollar bonuses for putting the GC in the league.. maybe the Lions should ask for that money back!!! Good luck, I agree the Lions are in all sorts of trouble on and off the field.. the former can be fixed,the later, maybe not.
The real SC
Roar Rookie
Brisbane used to be good back in the days where they have did a 3-peat and played fantastic footy since 1999. But they have started to get worse. With Michael Voss being in the helm at the start of 2009, they have played finals series. In the 2010s, the Lions have started to deteriorate and Voss having to step down. 2014 was where Justin Leppitsch became the next coach and ruined the club with many losses. He deserves to be sacked for good. Hope that Mark Thompson would replace Leppitsch as the next coach for the Lions in 2017. They really need to play finals footy next year.
todd
Guest
Roos won't coach again. Ever. I agree with other comments that Ratten would mould a young team
Penster
Guest
They can't keep passing Roos around like a bottle of duty free on an end of season footy trip. Unless maybe, just maybe they relocated the Brisbane Lions to an inner suburb just north of Melbourne ............ Clarko was a risk for the Hawks in 2004, lacklustre playing career and no one's "favourite son". During the recruitment process, the Hawks had missed out on Rodney Eade & Terry Wallace (thank god), and also interviewed Gary Ayres and John Longmire. Mick Malthouse was a "proven" coach when he went to the Blues. Voss, Hird, Buckley, Leppa all recent greats who didn't cut it as senior coaches. Roos is brilliant and has the kudos and balls to take on boards, but there must be talent out there, hope the club from top down has the wherewithal to think outside the centre square and find it.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I've held off from mentioning Ratten because after what happened to his son last year I've no idea about his state of mind, what's happening with his family or whether he wants to move interstate at this point. Unless he publicly comes out and says he wants the gig I would be hesitant about putting his name forward. I do agree though he would be an ideal coach for the reasons you mention.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Paul, I would suggest Brett Ratten would be an ideal coach for the Lions. He was doing OK at the Blues until they made that monumental error in sacking him for Malthouse. At Carlton he was in a similar environment to the Lions but after being involved at Hawthorn for the past 4 years he now knows how a club should operate to be successful. Look what Bolton has done at Carlton. It won't take the sort of money needed to get a Roos or Thompson either
Paul D
Roar Guru
Melbourne are doing well to be competitive in only 3 years, given how bad they were when he took over. Leppa is being given a chance. Most coaches would have been sacked after 13 or so wins from 52 games. He is guaranteed the job for next season. Given the cultural issues at the Lions I would argue McKenna is not the right man for the job. Mark Thompson could be an option – the only reason I mention him is that he does have a good record of not tolerating any rubbish, is capable of adapting his message to suit different personalities, and – given what he went through at Essendon and what he saw those players going through, would be an ideal candidate to bust the bubble of self-pity the Lions players are in. But he's also rather erratic and comes with drawbacks.
harry houdini
Roar Rookie
What!, you don't think the AFL, LIons and Suns are realistic ?. The GC Suns won on the weekend and got a 14k crowd to what has been a dismal year. If both SE QLD teams were somewhat half decent and i stress half decent, things would look completely different, the turn around can be strong and quick. But SE QLD needs plenty of work done, but at the ground level there is a decent core support ready to jump back on board, there is also a decent grass roots base to work with.
mdso
Guest
I thought the Roo's family are going to live in Hawaii permanently.
Brian
Guest
I saw Roos yesterday out with his family at a local bowling alley. He looked like a man who wanted to spend more time with his family and had little interest in packing up to go to Brisbane. The job would take energy which Roos rightfully does not need to give. Also 3 years into coaching Melbourne and they are still not playing Finals. Its hardly a ringing endorsement.They should give Leppa a chance. Beyond that how about Guy McKenna
Paul D
Roar Guru
Also too, given that Clarkson went out of his way to haggle the Hawks DOWN from what they wanted to pay him, that indicates someone who is loyal to his club and isn't likely to have his mind changed by simply throwing money at him.
The truth
Guest
ha ha Thurnstonville, never heard that one before. Nice one. Hey Paul D the Lions could use someone like you. Passionate but realistic about things. You would be an asset.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Contracted till the end of 2019. I doubt it. AFL would pretty much have to own it if that happened as well, essentially spin it as him responding to a call for help to save a club that everyone agrees needs maximum intervention, that sort of thing. But it needs someone like a Clarkson if they go down that path. Whoever they get has to be absolutely beyond reproach and acclaimed universally as the best person for the job. Because they will need time, lots of time, to turn things around.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Could Clarko be lured to Brisbane (say $2m per year)?
Paul D
Roar Guru
Zero to no chance of a FNQ team being successful. NQ Cowboys dwarf everything up there, they should rename Townsville to Thurstonville. Not much money amongst the locals to support AFL, transient FIFO populations, problems with playing games in March/April (it is really hot up there!). Basically it’d be the Suns, but even worse.
Milo
Roar Rookie
Is there any realistic alternative in having an FNQ team? At least in FNQ there is a fair chunk of expat Vics albeit I guess the problem there would be those same Vics likely to follow their existing side.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Look, my view isn’t worth more than anyone else’s but right now, no, I don’t think the support is there for two clubs. When I say it’s not there, I mean it’s not there in quantities remotely approaching profitability. That’s not to say it won’t exist down the track, but there needs to be a lot more investment and support given to the Lions and Suns for that to eventuate. There’s often commentary about huge numbers of juniors playing the sport up here and questions as to why that doesn’t materialise into more support at games. The answer is pretty simple, the clubs are awful, don’t win games, repeatedly get thrashed. Parents with kids have got plenty of other things they can do with their time and money - sitting in cold stadiums supporting two clubs that have developed a reputation for being really terrible and not putting in effort or providing a good show for spectators is well down on their list of priorities. In hindsight, the AFL moved too soon on the Suns. They wanted to broadcast two games into QLD each week, but viewing numbers here are god-awful, routinely well under 50,000 statewide for each club. And often we’re left to watch the Lions or Suns getting towelled up on free to air, while on Foxtel an absolute blue chip belter is being played out between two gun interstate sides. For the sake of growing the game, the AFL would probably have done better to broadcast more high quality games into the state than the parochial non-events. But, they’re here now, and short of wanting to re-enact Napoleon’s long retreat from Moscow, they’re going to have to stay and fight it out. But it’s going to need a lot more money and commitment than they have displayed thus far.
The truth
Guest
Hey Paul D do you think their is enough room for two AFL sides in SEQ? I see QLD as a League and Union state and I just don't think there is enough support up there for two AFL sides? While being a fan, you seem realistic about things. The Lions are in a deep hole and the AFL need to make some tough decisions because something does have to give.