Sydney vs Hawthorn: Thursday Night Forecast

Hawthorn and Sydney have had a fascinating recent history, and have developed a most compelling rivalry.

The Hawks finished on top of the ladder in 2012, but lost the grand final to the Swans. Sydney finished on top of the ladder in 2014, but lost the grand final to Hawthorn. Both flags went to the underdog on the day.

Sydney took a fringe Hawk in Josh Kennedy and converted him to the most dominant pure inside midfielder in the game, arguably changing the prototype for that style of player to the clearance beasts we see in there today.

The Swans also stole the highest profile player of the century – if we’re counting equal parts celebrity and footballer – away from Hawthorn, when they orchestrated the Buddy Franklin coup, signing him to a decade-long, multi-million dollar contract.

Even their recent results have been unusual with the travelling visitor to the fore – in their last three clashes, the Swans have won two close games at the MCG, while Hawthorn romped in by 89 points up at ANZ Stadium around this time last year.

In general terms, Sydney is seen as an inside, contested, clearance team, while the Hawks are seen as an outside, slick-moving unit, particularly in light of their much publicised low contested possession ranking.

Not many would realise that the Swans actually average more possessions per game than the Hawks, with the difference basically made up of handballs.

Given their contested possession differential, this makes sense, as there are many numbers around the ball at stoppages, and the Swans like to use handball to clear their way out to a free man, but each possession in the chain tends to be a contested one.

Sydney relies on six pure midfielders to do almost all of the heavy lifting – Daniel Hannebery (averaging 31 disposals per game), Josh Kennedy (29.5), Tom Mitchell (28), Luke Parker (27), Jake Lloyd (23) and Kieren Jack (23).

These players have missed one game between them this year, and have also played a lot of football together. This continuity serves them well, and they know each other’s games inside and out.

On the other hand Hawthorn has Sam Mitchell (30 disposals per game) and Jordan Lewis (27) as the major ball-winners, followed by a big drop in numbers to Isaac Smith (22) and Shaun Burgoyne (18). Billy Hartung (20) has been dropped, while Liam Shiels (17 – well down on output compared to the last two years) and Will Langford (18) are injured. Brad Hill (15.5) has basically been a non-entity.

This ostensibly robs the Hawks of ball-winning and ball-carrying depth through the midfield, but we know how they like to set up through half-back, using Grant Birchall (22 disposals), Josh Gibson (21), and the freshly returned Luke Hodge (23.5).

Jarrad McVeigh (20) has been the process architect for the Swans in this department, complementing Dane Rampe’s stellar season and Callum Mills’ importance in his first year.

There’s less than a goal the difference between the sides in attack, and with the Swans having played more wet weather footy, we can say the difference in potency is negligible, but how they get there is starkly different.

Franklin, with 53 goals, is the dominant Swan when it comes to hitting the scoreboard. Isaac Heeney (17 goals) and Kurt Tippett (15) are next in line, and neither are there tonight. After that, you get resting mid Luke Parker (13), along with small forwards Ben McGlynn (13), Tom Papley (13) and George Hewett (12). It’s not imposing.

Hawthorn, as we have come to expect, has a much more even battle going on for their leading goal-kicker award. Jack Gunston has 36, Luke Breust 33, Cyril Rioli 29, Paul Puopolo 27 and surprise packet James Sicily 23. It’s hard to imagine stopping them all, and no team can. Minimise the impact of as many as possible, is all you can hope for.

Sydney’s defence has been supreme as the season has gone on, and their pressure around the ball carrier against Geelong last week was the best that any team has produced this season. If they can replicate that against this week, Hawthorn won’t be able to handle it either.

Tom Mitchell should get the task of shutting down Sam Mitchell, which he’s done successfully in the past, and from there the Swans should be able to control the game. It may be the Hawks that play counter-attack or slingshot footy, to try and expose the Sydney defence one-on-one.

Hawthorn have won six matches in a row, and eight of their last nine thanks to the easiest possible draw, which has duped people into thinking that they’re ‘back’. The Hawks haven’t defeated one of the current top seven teams since Round 5 when beating Adelaide in Melbourne, and have lost to GWS and Sydney since then, the only times they’ve played a legitimate rival (an injury-riddled North in freefall doesn’t count).

Hawthorn will generate scoring chances, and their experience will keep them in the game, so the Sydney small forwards will need to work hard to manufacture and then maximise their opportunities, to ensure the Swans score is a winning one.

Sydney are a better team than Hawthorn this year, and have played the much better football as a whole. The Hawks are fighting valiantly, but not playing with anywhere near the fluency we have become accustomed to over the previous four or five years. They haven’t been fully exposed yet, but the day is coming.

Sydney to win by 22 points, Daniel Hannebery to have 35+ touches in a best on ground display, and the Hawks to not see the top of the ladder again this season.

That’s my Thursday night forecast. What’s yours?