It’s all about percentage. The real winners and losers at the weekend appeared not so much to be the actual winners and losers, though some of them mattered.
Focus turned to those sides hunting top four spots and not whether they were winning, but how much they were winning by.
Adelaide had a big win, so they rose up two spots the ladder. Geelong also had a big win, but it wasn’t big enough so they slipped down one.
GWS didn’t have a big win, so they slipped two. Sydney had a reasonably big win, so they were promoted a spot to second.
Who said the final rounds of the home and away season weren’t going to be interesting?
No change // Ladder: 3rd (14W, 5L)
They needed a blowout to improve their double chance hopes and that’s what they went out and did, handing Brisbane a 138-point loss. Fremantle this week could be the next percentage booster.
No change // Ladder: 2nd (14W, 5L)
The Swans are actually closing in on the Crows here with some decent form. Recording a 67-point win over Port Adelaide is a healthy result.
+1 // Ladder: 5th (14W, 5L)
Essendon didn’t have a goal to half time but it still wasn’t a dominant enough performance from the Cats. With percentage such a big factor now, they’d have wanted to put more than 100 on the scoreboard. Can they pile it on against Richmond this week?
-1 // Ladder: 1st (15W, 4L)
It hasn’t been a great fortnight for Hawthorn as their grasp on top spot weakens. Mathematically, they are still a chance to drop from first to eighth before finals. How crazy is that?
+5 // Ladder: 7th (13W, 6L)
They keep getting written off, then they keep producing good results. Could it be that the Dogs might actually be a factor in September?
-1 // Ladder: 4th (14W, 5L)
Yep, the Giants’ form on the road is officially suspect. Which makes a top four spot seem vital to any preliminary final aspirations.
-1 // Ladder: 6th (13W, 6L)
If percentage is the aim – and it most definitely still is for the Eagles given the boost a home final would provide them – Josh Kennedy kicking bags is a very good thing.
+3 // Ladder: 9th (10W, 9L)
A strong win over Carlton and the Saints remain in the frame for finals, particularly when you take a look at North Melbourne’s draw. But the Saints have an in-form Swans side visiting Etihad Stadium this week. With their percentage, a win is needed.
+3 // Ladder: 11th (9W, 10L)
A victory to remember against Hawthorn after years and years of losses. The future looked bright with the Jack Viney-Dom Tyson-Tom McDonald age bracket supported by a decent handful of 19 and 20 year olds making contributions.
-3 // Ladder: 8th (12W, 7L)
Last week we highlighted the importance of beating the Western Bulldogs given Hawthorn, Sydney and GWS were in store. The Kangas failed that task. While Port Adelaide losing helped, their spot in the eight could be in some danger still and it’s probably a bad time to be facing the Hawks coming off a loss.
-3 // Ladder: 10th (9W, 10L)
Not many teams can pull off scoring 140 fewer points in the space of a week, but that’s the Power in 2016 for you.
+2 // Ladder: 14th (6W, 13L)
The Suns appear to have found some decent football late in the season, which was needed after their mid-year slump. Pushed the Giants, as they did Melbourne a week earlier, but in the end it was another single-figures loss. They should break through for a win this week against Essendon.
-4 // Ladder: 12th (8W, 11L)
The Pies would’ve gone in confident against Richmond but now find themselves back under some pressure. A few good performances could soon be forgotten with the spotlight of Friday night football on the horizon this week.
-1 // Ladder: 15th (6W, 13L)
After three competitive weeks against sides from the top eight, the drop-off came against St Kilda and margin-wise, it was the Blues’ biggest loss of the season. Still, they have the opportunity to finish the year on a high with Brisbane this week and Essendon in round 23.
+1 // Ladder: 13th (8W, 11L)
That’s what you call a good response. Heat was on and the Tigers came out with a 15-point win over Collingwood, a good way to celebrate Dustin Martin’s 150th.
-1 // Ladder: 16th (3W, 16L)
The Dockers were competitive in the first half of the Derby, like a few of their recent games, but the Eagles kicked away. The positive was some less familiar names had an impact.
No change // Ladder: 17th (2W, 17L)
Not many teams can give up more than 170 points in consecutive weeks, but that’s the Lions in 2016 for you.
No change // Ladder: 18th (1W, 18L)
Bomber fans won’t have to sit through too many more goalless halves once the next few weeks are out of the way. So, there’s that.
Perry Bridge
Guest
Nice to see Kiwi Kurt Heatherley get his chance - for NZ junior basketball captain is the first graduate of the AFL NZ/South Pacific talent pathway to break into senior AFL footy. A number of PNG lads have been close, Amua Pirika and Stanis Susuve spent time with Gold Coast early days, Brendon Beno and Donald Barry up at Brisbane, Peter Labi (Car) and David Meli (Ess) and Theo Gavuri and Gideon Simon (Rich) have all played some good 2nd tier footy and helped drive PNG to IC champs. This is a validation of these efforts at junior level. However - back to Hawthorn - how in the heck did Cyril Rioli get off with a slap on the wrist. Hawthorn fans surely saw a bit of Byron Pickett on Krummel in that one of going in low and pushing up.
Bill
Guest
Sure they will. GWS will be winning the next 5 in a row and Buddy will drop off quick.
Peppsy
Roar Guru
I'm just glad it happened now and not in a knock out final
Paul D
Roar Guru
That's a nice prospect, be great to see them back in the 8 again.
Swannies
Guest
Bill...North missed a golden opportunity play in a Grand Final last year and should have started rebuilding this year by moving/trading some senior stars. Unlike the Swans, it will take them another 4 or 5 years to get to a PF again. In that time the bloods will have won another flag or two.
Swannies
Guest
No way the Swans will lose to North...too much on the line after Hawks' loss.
Swannies
Guest
Melbourne and Saints could replace North and Eagles in the finals next year
Bill
Guest
Yeah just like you covered your injuries when the roos tore the swans a new a hole in the final last year!
me too
Guest
melbourne have been pretty good. loss to essendon aside they'd be the most consistent side outside the eight. can't remember a thrashing this year - saints the better team, but have had a few shockers. both real challangers for the eight next year.
Swannies
Guest
North should be able to cover for these injuries if they want to go the next level. Scott sadly appears bereft of ideas unless the best pick are on the field. Can't see north winning another game and are no guarantees finishing 8 should they get belted by Hawks and swans. So happy for Doggies...they look the form team in the bottom half of the top 8 and could cause an upset or two!
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
I think you are wrong.......they have had a pretty good season and if it wasn't for that shock loss to Essendon in Round 2 they would be just 2 games out of the eight in the mix for 8th spot. Expect Melbourne and STK to both make the eight next year at the expense of NMFC and WCE.
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
How the hell do you get WCE above WB when WB have COLL, ESS, FREO and WCE have GWS, HAW and ADL!
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
You could be right Pete, and certainly I wasn't expecting some of the swings we've had here, but I guess I look at it as a sign of how even the comp is. And there were some unexpected results this week, which is obviously going to change things around a bit. Recent weeks have been more stable than this week.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Andrew, I wouldn't say that result has been ignored. It counts. But in that situation, North losing six of their last eight counteracts that individual game.
hal
Guest
Melbourne have won their premiership for the year. Now that they beat Hawthorn, expect them to come out and get spanked by the Port Adelaide front runners. Carlton will then find something and beat them, and to cap it all off Geelong will demolish them in their last game for the season. Melbourne are false alarmists.
anon
Guest
"It’s almost like we just assumed that we’d win because it was a close game, a bit like against Geelong in round 1." I wrote something a while back about those close games where Hawthorn won based on dumb luck and favourable umpiring decisions would hurt them long term. The players would begin to believe they "just know how to win", when in reality they won 5/5 close games mostly on dumb luck. Chickens now coming home to roost.
anon
Guest
GWS 6th is just taking the mickey. 1. GWS - Best all round team, most talented, stacked in the midfield, stacked with key position players. They had a "bad" win, but it was on the road. And by the same token, Geelong has had some terrible losses against bad teams, Sydney recently had a "bad" win at the SCG againt Carlton, Hawthorn had a bad loss against Melbourne at the MCG of all grounds. 2. Sydney - Looking good, but lost to Hawthorn at the SCG not long ago, lost to GWS, lost to the Bulldogs at the SCG. 3. Hawthorn - Have to go down to 3 after that horrible loss that will cost them top 2 if they lose to West Coast now. Even with home ground advantage throughout the finals, I'm not sure they can beat top 4 teams three games in succession. 5th in attack, 7th in defence, 6th for percentage. Those are not the numbers of a premiership team. The only top 8 team they've put away all year has been West Coast and they can't travel. The rest of their top 8 wins have been "lucky" wins. 4. Adelaide - Wonderful attacking side that can beat up on weak teams. I don't think that midfield is good enough in finals. 5. Geelong - Can't see them winning 3 or 4 finals in a row. 6. West Coast - Beat a Freo team that has given up on their coach and his 2007 game plan. 7. Western Bulldogs - Too many injuries, can't score. 8. North Melbourne - Pretenders.
Jim
Guest
Yet Birdman the swans won down there on their only appearance (like they won at Aurora in their only game there against the Hawks). I think this week may be a bigger issue for the Swans to be honest, St Kilda are a dangerous side and have the game to really trouble the swans under the roof at Etihad.
Birdman
Guest
I've got the Swans losing to North Melb. next week in Hobart so they might still miss the top 4 even as flag favs. Blundstone has been a bit of a fortress so Roos are worth backing.
Dean
Guest
I thought the guys who usually stand up in a quarter like that weren't able to and those guys who were involved in the play were not the premiership player types who get things done and there were a lot of less-than-premiership type efforts from the younger players on the Hawthorn list. A couple of soft toe-pokes and rushing kicks to avoid contact were not the type of thing Hodge, Mitchell or Burgoyne would have done. I think it was more of an anomaly than any revelation. Next time, it's Burgoyne in the right spot rather than O'Brien and the ball is mopped up and moved forward cleanly. There's just less depth in Hawthorn's list than there used to be and Gibson and Mitchell in particular looked under siege in the last quarter. It has made the run home to the finals 3 rounds longer, with every match essentially being a qualifying final for each of the top 5. Any loss for any team from here will almost guarantee missing top 2.