A week out from the first Bledisloe Test in Sydney, I reckon the Wallabies are going to be competitive and the game is going to be a humdinger.
This is despite all the doom and gloom in Australian men’s 15 a side rugby at the moment, after a miserable Super Rugby season for Aussie teams and the three-nil series loss against England in June.
Here are five reasons why the series should be anticipated.
1. Healthy Wallabies
Unlike so many previous Test seasons which have started with Australia having to dig into its relatively shallow pool of Test talent, nearly all of the Wallabies best players are injury free.
Kurtley Beale is the most influential player who is injured but the Wallabies have excellent options to cover for him and can field excellent starting players in all positions, together with an excellent bench.
When you think about the depleted playing stocks the Wallabies played with to achieve draws at home in 2012 and 2014, they are in very good shape.
2. Experience
Despite the debate about whether it is good for the long term future of Aussie rugby, it cannot be doubted that the ARU’s 60-cap rule for overseas based players to play for the Wallabies has given the team access to a brace of highly experienced performers who would otherwise have been unavailable.
Will Genia, Matt Giteau, Adam Ashley Cooper and Drew Mitchell fill the experience gap in the backline that was so evident in the England series, while Sekope Kepu will continue to add his starch at tighthead.
Level heads that can only be developed over a long Test career will undoubtedly be invaluable in the face of the black wave and in providing the newer players with invaluable opportunities to learn.
3. Preparation
The upside of Aussie teams doing so badly in the Super Rugby is that most players have had five weeks without a Super Rugby game to freshen up and work on skills and fitness. The team as a whole has been together for three weeks after the Brumbies came into camp to compete for selection in the game day 23 and to work on learning a winning game plan.
That is a luxury of a couple of weeks compared to the All Blacks that the Wallabies don’t usually get.
4. Hard lessons learned
Despite Cheika’s apparent previous stubbornness about ‘running rugby’ at all cost, it appears from statements coming from players like Stephen Moore and Bernard Foley that the Wallabies might have learned the lesson about the need for a clever tactical kicking game to complement ball in hand rugby.
Hopefully this will translate into not only kicking for field position and territory, but drop kick attempts when the opportunity presents and finally making full use of the best aerial player in rugby – Israel Folau – with use of attacking high ball.
5. Mick Byrne
A winning game plan can’t come together without skills and in that regard having the All Black’s former skills coach in camp is a big, big deal for the Wallabies. Byrne has had a month to work on individual skills, enough time to achieve bankable improvements in goal kicking, tactical kicking and passing skills, something the Wallabies desperately need.
So while I would never be crazy enough to predict a Wallabies win against the All Blacks, they are just too good to do that with any certainty, I reckon the Wallabies are well in the hunt to knock them over in Sydney and am looking forward to an entertaining match.
Boz the Younger
Guest
Thanks Nic.
Timbo (L)
Guest
Ralph pformagg's metric is an interesting, indicative starting point but it only tells part of the picture. How much better than each player are they - 1%,5%,10%? What skills do they have? What weaknesses? To quote Aristotle: "The whole is greater than the sum of its parts." As an example I have started by analyzing the #6 position for line out skills: Fardy beats Kaino in a lineout so Fardy wins this battle - right?. No... neither Hooper nor Pocock jump proficiently so Fardy is now lining up against Kieren Ried, arguably an even contest. If Chiek can't recover the blackmail photos that Skelton clearly has, Fardy will then be jumping against Retallic or Whitelock for the first 40 minutes, Ried is undefended. Different selection choices from either side: Carter, Coleman, MacMahon, MacCalman, Savea or Dixon change the equation. From my clumsy analysis, it is clear a more holistic approach is required, an overall skills pool comparison would be more definitive. It then needs to be applied to the team's and opposition's game plans. Add weather conditions and it gives rise to many possible outcomes including the improbable event of a Wallabies win. The Bookies are giving the Wallabies a 6 point start: 40c For an AB win, $1.90 for Oz
Richard
Guest
awww weally?? Witchy could lift the cup above his..Awww poor Widdle Witchy was faking it..... Typical K1W1 Keen Individual without Intelligence
P2R2
Roar Rookie
its poetic licence or do Australians not understand that grammar?
Vic rugby
Guest
2007 melbourne abs lost not 2010
taylorman
Roar Guru
Well that's just silly, you need to keep up with the play timbo. For one Pocock hasn't played at 7 this year at test level and he started one test at 7 in 2015, against Argentina, and before that hasn't played a test since 2012. So there's no way he can be assessed as better than Cane or Savea at 7 at test level, let alone, at the moment. You can't compare an 8 with another 7 in the 7 position. At Super level hes been injured and did not play better than Savea did for the Canes, regardless of where he played.
Wardad
Guest
I think Pocock is like 6' squared or something ?
Wardad
Guest
Poor widdle Wichy got up in plenty of time to help win the RWC and hoist over his widdle head ,again eh wichard ?
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Good article Boz, and I too am inclined to think it will be a close match rather than a blowout. The European players will certainly add starch in important areas.
Wardad
Guest
Ouch!! Excellent riposte ,
Katipo
Guest
@Boz. I agree. It's the All Backs forwards that are the difference between the two teams. Like the old saying goes "The forwards decide whether you win or not. The back decide by how much".
ShaghaiDoc
Guest
You argument is compelling but your English beggars belief!
Richard
Guest
bigmac, The solution is right before your eyes or have you had your blue tinted monicle on with the other eye closed for two years?? Make Chieks accountable and put the heat on him as he continues to select the same guys even after a loss, but he drops the younger guys . Those players he picks are either have no talent, too old, out of form, injury prone, underdone ,or his former Waratahs buddies...He hardly ever on picks on form.. Horne being selected as (VC) ( cant be dropped) with Phipps and Mumm still there really grate on most people I would think..
Boz the Younger
Guest
One thing I will say though is that the Wallabies now have the depth to match the All Blacks bench. For all the big deal about Savea, McMahon will be just as good if Cheika uses him like he should and other possible bench players are potential game breakers too .... Kerevi, Toomua, Coleman and Hodge all spring to min. It has the potential to even games up a lot.
Boz the Younger
Guest
All Black forwards + Wallabies backline would have the advantage. The ABs have a tight five who can all pass like backs + outrageously fit and aggressive locks + the World's best number 8, all things the Wallabies can't match. The backs are much closer in abilities. Their halves have been better, though we'll have to see if that changes now that Byrne has been helping out, but now that Nonu and Smith are gone I reckon the teams are fairly even from 11 to 15.
Katipo
Guest
Hey, this Folau / Pocock wouldn't make the ABs. Hypothetical. Here is another hypothetical. If we swapped backlines which team would win? TEAM A: All Blacks forwards + Wallabies backline TEAM B: Wallabies forwards + All Blacks backline. I know what I think. Your thoughts?
Mick Gold Coast QLD
Roar Guru
discussionassertion arises here regularly and I imagine long term, knowlegeable All Black and Australian supporters smile at the fanciful, deluded nonsense, sit back and move on looking for value in the next article. The kiddies don't get out to see enough rugby close up to realise that their favorite two "best in the worlders" are simply too little and too limited. Folau is good, a real talent but not a natural, instinctive rugby full back, and he is not in the same class as Ben Smith or Israel Dagg - and then your quoted paragraph comes into play.Kirky
Roar Rookie
Read my previous post on the matter friend!, but just in case you can't I'll fill you in, "there is no one player that Hansen would feel inclined to move aside to put any of the no hopers you mention in their place! You only think they're good players, and that may be so, "for the Wallabies", but they wouldn't get a bolters show in a New Zealand side! There are in New Zealand around the traps of Provincial rugby better players than those players you mention, and they may never play for the All Blacks! ~ It's called depth son!
Timbo
Guest
Neutral between the WBs and ABs, so I've got no axe to grind. Personally, I think both Pocock and Folau would start in the ABs XV, but struggling to think of anyone else. Simmons? not in a month of Sundays. He wouldn't get near the ABs, Boks, or England locks, and would be in a very difficult fight for his place in Wales, Ireland, Scotland and Argentina. At the moment Pocock is a better '7' than either Cane or Savea and Hansen would find a place for Folau in his back 3 with Smith and A.N.Other.
bigmac
Guest
if the problem is so simple so whats your solution?