It’s the pointy end of the season and the Demons find themselves in an unusual position.
Normally around this time of year, the Melbourne faithful are working out their September holiday plans.
But in 2016, finals are still very much a possibility for the Dees.
Shocking, isn’t it?
In the last few rounds, they have surged forward into ninth place, only two games and 3.7 percentage points behind eighth-place North Melbourne.
But there is still that gap, so a lot will have to go right for the Demons to gain a coveted finals berth.
Firstly, Melbourne need North to lose to Sydney in Hobart this week, and Greater Western Sydney at Etihad in Round 23 – both of which are definitely possible based on recent form.
But even if that does happen, the Demons need a substantial win against the Blues on Sunday and then a win at Geelong in the last round.
While it will be tricky, a chance is still a chance. But coach Paul Roos is trying to keep a lid on it.
“For us, it’s not even worth talking about,” Roos told Fox Sports. “We haven’t discussed [finals] at all.”
But defender Tom McDonald admits it’s nice to be in contention.
“As much as it is in our control, it isn’t in our control,” he said.
“We’re waiting on other teams to lose if we want make finals.
“It’s great just to be in the conversation from where we’ve come from, and being at the bottom of the ladder for a long time, to be around the mark is a real sign of improvement I think.”
So can the Dees do the unthinkable and make the eight? Honestly, probably not. There is certainly a lot that has to go right for them, starting this week against Carlton – a side they have only beaten once in the past five occasions.
“For this young group, everything’s an opportunity,” Roos said. “It’s great external noise (being a finals chance). It just means you’re playing some good footy.”
“But last time we played Carlton we got beaten, so that’s got to be our real focus.”
If they continue their form from the last few weeks, Melbourne will be a shoo-in to win. But if they turn up as the inconsistent Demons of old, then they can kiss their finals chances goodbye.
But regardless of how the remainder of the season plays out, the Demons have improved significantly this year.
Macca
Guest
As Bolton says our season isn't measured by wins and losses - but yesterdays win has them about 7 wins in front of where you had them at the start of the season - maybe it is time to stop your crusade and think.
Macca
Guest
Mattyb - blues win by 20 points, Gibbs best on ground - what was that you were saying again.
Swannies
Guest
Melbourne are still a chance after Swans beat North at their so-called fortress today and I think it would be great for the game if they take North's place in September. North are a boring old side full of has-beens with nothing left in the tank. Melbourne would be a refreshing change in September and they would have nothing to lose. Go the Dees!
mattyb
Guest
The blues look great. With the way they went down to Brisbane who everybody was calling a basket case has them ready to rise.
mattyb
Guest
Carlton are still losing though.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Glad I got you all tapping your calculators and doing some number scenario modeling. ?
DamianR
Guest
Differential is less than that so smaller victories would do it. Following realistic scenario would be enough : North lose 82-105 & 84-100. Finish 106.07% Dees win 100-78 & 91-80. Finish 106.10%
Howie
Roar Pro
I thought Melbourne were lucky to be within 6 of the Eagles (who were dire that day) at the end.
Shaunock
Guest
I agree about Fremantle, they need change ASAP but paying out Lyon's contract would cost them millions. Richmond would only have to pay Dimma out for one year, Lyon has four to go at something like $1.2 million a year. They extended it at exactly the wrong time.
Wilson
Roar Guru
84 point is the differance North lose to Swans by 30 and GWS by 12 and Melb Wins against Carlton by 30 and by 12 against Cat they swap spots.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
North are overdue for a decent win too.
Avatar
Roar Guru
The two games against North and West Coast could've gone either way. It's just that their opponents were more experienced in terms of recent success. As for the Essendon match, I'm of the opinion that Melbourne didn't turn up that day (even though they led briefly in the final quarter of that match, they were made to play catch-up against a determined Bombers outfit that day).
Pope Paul VII
Guest
MM that match was blowing a Force 10 gale from Navarone. The demonic ones put on 9 in the 2nd quarter!
Macca
Guest
Thanks Darren - just looked at the home game and assumed - from memory they did go in Favourite though.
Daz
Roar Pro
One correction: The loss to Port Adelaide was not at the MCG, it was Melbourne's home game, but it was played in Alice Springs.
Daz
Roar Pro
So basically, there are a handful of games that were close and could have given them the boost. But they lost all of them, so they find themselves in the position they are in. We can't declare any one of those games were more important. Shoulda coulda woulda. As a Melbourne supporter, I'm just rapt with their progress, and the mere fact that we're still in contention.
Macca
Guest
" Carlton have lost their last nine, so you’d think Melbourne will enter that match on Sunday as favourites" Is that a good thing for the Dee's? They have lost to Essendon, St Kilda twice, Port Adelaide on the MCG and just snuck in against the Suns at the MCG - beating teams below them hasn't come easy.
Avatar
Roar Guru
It won't happen, but it's not impossible. Carlton have lost their last nine, so you'd think Melbourne will enter that match on Sunday as favourites. The Swans will be too good for North Melbourne down in Hobart on Saturday. That would set us up for Super Saturday in Round 23, where Melbourne would start the day needing to beat Geelong down at Simonds Stadium, something they did last year. Then they'll watch the North Melbourne vs GWS game at Etihad Stadium that night praying for a Giants win. But that's not all - the Dees need to win both their remainders by huge margins and hope North get thrashed in their final two matches. Can it be done? We wait to see.
Avatar
Roar Guru
Exactly, they'll also be ruing that poor start against North Melbourne in round three when (if I remember correctly) they coughed up eight goals in the first quarter before eventually falling short by five points. Those two losses to St Kilda (rounds 6 and 17) could also come back to bite them, as could the six-point loss to West Coast in Round 18.
Macca
Guest
All this talk of Melbourne making finals has me confident the blues will knock them off this weekend (especially if Murphy comes back). A lot of team outside the 8 have put together patches of pretty good footy this year but then blown it and apart from about 6 quarters the blues haven't been too bad over the past 5 weeks,