The Roar
The Roar


Roar Pro

Joined March 2016







Darren shows a passing interest in sport in general from AFL, Rugby League, Formula 1, Olympics and occasionally curling! He can be found at the MCG supporting Melbourne in AFL, at AAMI Park supporting the Storm in NRL, or just at home watching on it all unfold on TV!



Roar Pro
Roar Pro

Yet another season prediction

So with the 2018 season looming, it’s time for yet another season prediction. But rather than just taking a guess, I figured that I would try to find a more objective, mathematical approach.

And like clockwork… all the comments:
“… the worst in footy discourse – “they’re soft”, “they got ahead of themselves”, “loser club”…
” the Demons were overrated heading into 2019… their putrid preliminary final performance should have been a giant red flag for optimists.”
Maybe they got figured over the off-season that followed.”
Maybe their coach is no good.”
“…injuries weren’t a valid excuse ”
And my favourite, which Adrian didn’t mention specifically “2018 was an aberration”
Some people just love to sink the boot into the Dees. It wouldn’t matter what they did or what happened, there’s no allowances for them, unlike when Carlton, or North or the Bulldogs or any other number of teams have poor years.

What fresh hell awaits the Demons?

But funny that the only people that ever seem to be “criticising the quality of the game or an individual” are the white, usually middle-aged, males who seem to take issue with women playing AFLW in general.
Seems these people also seem to have issues with the “quality” of women in politics, media and business, not to mention the “quality” of other social groups (indigenous, LGBTQI+ etc.) demanding a bit more exposure also. Why would that be?

I believe Coca-Cola now uses just “Coca-Cola” as the name for all their products. The “diet”, “no sugar” etc. does not make up part of the brand name, nowadays, it’s just the flavour.

Why criticise when we should be celebrating women’s achievements?

Without any explanation of the underlying calculations there is no way to know what it actually represents. It’s totally meaningless and subject to so much speculation.

Champion Data have released their 2020 list rankings and we have many, many questions

Exactly, like a tackle only counts as a tackle if it results in a free kick for holding the ball or a stoppage.
All those tackles where it’s play on, the ball spills free, or the tackled player handballs away in the nick of time to an empty ground are not counted as tackles, even though without the “attempted” tackle taking place, the outcome of the contest would have a marked difference in the game.

Champion Data have released their 2020 list rankings and we have many, many questions

People use statistics as a drunk uses a lamppost — for support rather than illumination — Andrew Lang / A. E. Housman

Champion Data have released their 2020 list rankings and we have many, many questions

Same, some of their stats are so specific they’re virtually meaningless to all but the coaches.

Champion Data have released their 2020 list rankings and we have many, many questions

Sounds like your bias is showing 😂

Bias is in the eye of the beholder

Not quite sure how accurate the BS Adjuster will turn out to be, but I think you might be on a winner here by at least getting everyone to list their most hated and loved teams, so we can see where their biases come from. Genius!

For me:

North Melbourne
St Kilda

Bias is in the eye of the beholder

Not quite. 1990 2000 2010 2020 has synergy.

Predicting the 2020 AFL season

I appreciate your reply Stirling.
When I was referring to “we” I meant us as the (mostly) anonymous posters, some of whom seem to revel in declaring certain teams should be dissolved, or they’re a laughing stock, of no importance.

Although, now that I think about it, some “respected” journalists and ex-player commentators exhibit this behaviour at times too!

What the AFL must sort out by the end of the next decade

What happened to make the competition uneven in 1986?

What the AFL must sort out by the end of the next decade

A “lesser” Victorian club (whatever that means) has been predicted to fold since Fitzroy was forced out.
I find it completely disrepectful to the players and those involved with particular clubs that we sit here behind our keyboards and deem which clubs we think are not worthy.
Funny though, that it’s always some other club, no one ever thinks their own club should be merged or folded.

What the AFL must sort out by the end of the next decade

Exactly, just because “we” deem that club not worthy, does not necessarily make it so. Perhaps we fold West Coast seeing as their supporters seem to be the ones that complain about the biased Victorians the most.

What the AFL must sort out by the end of the next decade

But how is that in any way fair?
Each team gets 11 home games per year. Giving half the teams extra home games every single year obviously means you’ll have to give extra away games to the other teams.
Way to make WCE and Adelaide even richer and St Kilda, North and Melbourne even poorer. They already get bad commercial deals with the draw as it is, and now you want to take another game off them.

Maybe.. maybe the option is for the AFL to encourage some teams to sell their home game to their opposition. Like what Bulldogs did with Sydney, Melbourne did with Brisbane a few years ago. Except you’d have to given them them lots of cash and some other type of bonus for any club to sell their home game to their interstate oppponent.

The AFL fixture is biased towards Victorian clubs

Of course we are aware of home ground advantage.
Most Victorian based clubs would love a home ground advantage that WCE and Freo enjoy all year when they play at Optus. Continuing to complain about the GF at the MCG while ignoring the fact Perth teams have more chance of getting to the GF in the first place by their advantage at Optus is just hypocritical.

The only Victorian team that experiences any type of home ground advantage anywhere near comparable with Optus is Geelong, when they play at Kardinia Park.

Both the MCG and Marvel are neutral venues for Victorian teams.
That is part of the reasoning behind some Victorian clubs attempting to establish presence elsewhere, Hawthorn don’t need the cash, but they get a decent home ground advantage playing at York Park.

The AFL fixture is biased towards Victorian clubs

Ok, so in the end, it boils down to the fact that when Victorian clubs play at alternative venues (like Tasmania, Ballarat or NT) they should play Victorian teams there.
Guess what, I agree with you. I’d prefer if Melbourne didn’t play Port or Freo in Alice Springs, I’d prefer to have that home ground advantage at the MCG.
But the AFL schedules these games based solely on money and who draws the bigger crowds. It’s not Victorian consiracy, it’s purely business.

Of course, we don’t mention anything about when GWS play in Canberra, when Gold Coast play in NT or Cairns, or when Port Adelaide play in China. How are these any different?

The AFL fixture is biased towards Victorian clubs

Of course West Coast beat Collingwood at the MCG and became premiers too. So I guess they had no advantage there. Or maybe, the best teams can win anywhere.
If a team is really the best, then they won’t need to rely on their huge home ground advantage to bump up their wins. They’ll win in Perth, Melbourne, Tassie or China.

The AFL fixture is biased towards Victorian clubs

It’s not naïveté, just acceptance that it’s a reality of the competition that all clubs voluntarily chose to become a part of (and remain in).

The fact that one city has half the teams, and every one of other cities only have 1 or 2 teams means there is no way that the teams based in these other cities will travel less than the teams based in the one city.

Whinging about it makes no difference.

The AFL fixture is biased towards Victorian clubs

Go on, no one is stopping them from creating their own break-away league. I can assure you though that:
a) most of the players would prefer to play for Collingwood or Geelong or Richmond that some manufactured team representing Victoria in this new competition.
b) most supporters would prefer to continue seeing Collingwood play Essendon on the MCG.
c) Channel 7 would not pay $1b+ for rights to that leauge. No one would. It would end up on Fox sports 8 at 1:00am.

1987 is eons ago. No one disagrees that the VFL was a basket case and yes expanding to include WCE and the Bears was a huge help.

Also, considering in 1987, Essendon played at Windy Hill and Collingwood played at Vic Park, why would they be training on the MCG?

The AFL fixture is biased towards Victorian clubs

And when 9 (10) team shares 2 ground, it means that there is less advantage playing that team.
The same way when West Coast and Fremantle play at Optus Stadium, they don’t get as much home advantage playing there as they would when they host Gold Coast.
This is exactly the same principle that applies when St Kilda host Essendon at Marvel.

Except, WA & SA teams are guaranteeed 11 home games and 1 away game at their home ground each year.

Many Victorian teams have to host games at a ground that is not their home ground, or otherwise we’d see the Anzac game played at Marvel when Essendon are the home team.

The AFL fixture is biased towards Victorian clubs

A couple of points:
But the unspoken, ignored injustice of a Victoria-centric landscape of the AFL goes unmentioned. You’re obviously new around here! It goes mentioned every week, every final, every year.

Financially, the more your fans can attend games in your home city, the better. It’s not hard to see why clubs with 16 or more home-city games each season can attract supporters to every game. but if that’s the case, why is West Coast the most financially secure club? Why does West Coast have more members than they can fit in the stadium and are the only club with a waiting list for seats?

it starts by recognising firstly that the inequality is real and that the AFL is not simply a Victoria-centric game. With 10 of 18 teams in the competition in Victoria, by definition, it actually is a Victorian-centric game. That is just the reality.

I understand that most Victorians simply do not care. It’s not that we don’t care, we just recognise that for all the advantages that Vic teams have, non-Vic teams have their own significant advantages, like a true and real home ground advantage that means they – on average – win more games at home and have a better chance of making the finals based on their home record.

While the reality is there are 10 teams from 18 in the one state, there’s little anyone can do. When St Kilda plays the Western Bulldogs, they are both playing at their home ground. Of course that means the ground is more or less a netural venue.

The AFL fixture is biased towards Victorian clubs

The Banerji defence hinged on the argument that there is implied freedom of political communication in the Constitution and that as a private citizen she had a right to express her political views. Remaining anonymous was the cause to express her views without bringing her employer into disrepute, but the HCA didn’t see it that way.

So while there is an implied freedom of political communication, there is more an express freedom in religious expression. However, how that intertwines with employment law – particularly for a private entity – it seems, remains to be tested.

Why everyone got it wrong about Rugby Australia and Israel Folau

Happens all the time. Melbourne played both St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs at Docklands as home games a few years back.
Victorian based teams have a home ground but each and every team has to sometimes play home games at grounds in Victoria that are not actually their home ground. Sometimes they have to play opponents who actually play at that ground too.
Its the nature of the comp when there is a city with half the teams and only 2 grounds to play at.
Geelong get as much home ground advantage at Kardinia as interstate teams do at their home ground. They also get the advantage that they don’t actually have to jump on a plane or stay in hotels every second week.
They get double the advantages that’s every other club get. Yet they continuously harp on about having to play some finals in a ground they used to like playing at – and actually chose to play at…. yes Geelong actually requested to have home games against clubs like Hawthorn and Collingwood at the MCG, as much as they try to pretend they never have.

The decade that was: Geelong Cats

I think the problem was that Gold Coast put all their eggs in the Ablett basket. It seems they thought that if they got the best player, then they’d be set.
But then they forgot to actually teach the kids to play for themselves. You could see it in the early seasons, where everyone was just looking for Gary to give the ball to. When he didn’t play, they were lost.
Letting Ablett go back to Geelong is probably one of the best things they could do.

The decade that was: Gold Coast Suns

They really should have won at least one more flag this decade. The sole flag in 2011 suggests that maybe they’re not as good as they appear. With a lot of their core players getting older (this has to be Ablett’s last year surely, and Selwood won’t have much longer) there is probably only a few years left to stand up and claim the flag with this team.

The decade that was: Geelong Cats