Now that the Wallabies team list for the first Bledisloe Cup Test on Saturday, fans can assess what that might us about Cheika’s game plan.
The observations that leap out at me about the team are as follows.
Firstly, Cheika is placing a high degree of emphasis on experience and continuity, with 21 of the 23-man team having played in the Rugby World Cup last year.
Of those players only Rob Horne did not play in the final due to injury and the only two players to have not played in a Rugby Championship to be selected are Dane Haylett-Petty and Allan Alaatoa. Haylett-Petty was successfully blooded on the right wing with the Wallabies against England and Alaalatoa, who will cover the reserve tight head prop position vacated by Greg Holmes, is the only uncapped player.
Relying on an experienced team seems to be a reasonable thing for Cheika to do in this Test. The Wallabies have pushed New Zealand to two draws in Australia in the last five years with far weaker, injury-ravaged teams than this and managed to beat them in Sydney last year with the bulk of the players who will be on the park on Saturday.
In the case of two bench selections, Mumm and Horne, a lot of fans (including me) may scratch their heads at them winning their positions over newer players who have offered considerably more this Super Rugby season. T
he alternative view may be that since Mumm and Horne are experienced internationals and adequate players from the bench, Cheika doesn’t need to risk exposing more than a couple of new players to the shock and awe New Zealand can create. Keeping new players to one forward and one back, surrounded by more experienced heads, may avoid panic when the Wallabies fall under inevitable New Zealand pressure.
Secondly, I think that the some of Cheika’s selections within the team indicate that he may be aiming to switch from the grinding start/flashy finish approach used last year to trying to get ahead of New Zealand earlier in the game and then hold the lead.
The selection of Ben McCalman at blindside flanker will move McCalman’s much under-rated strength of running into contact and offloading to create scoring opportunities to the front end of the match. I have seen him demonstrate in several internationals to great effect, including in the Wallabies pool game against Wales in last year’s Rugby World Cup.
McCalman’s running was only shut down by Wales at the cost of a penalty, putting Foley within striking distance to convert three-points. Combined with his famous try-saving tackle on George North, this was worth up to ten points in a nine point ball game.
Moving Fardy to the bench does pose some risks, as he is more of a breakdown and lineout exponent than McCalman, potentially allowing New Zealand more ball early in the match. However, with Hooper and Pocock working in tandem to pilfer New Zealand ball, the impact will likely be minimised and the gains from McCalman’s running exploited.
At the other end of the game when Ardie Savea and Liam Squire come off the bench, the New Zealand lineout will probably weaken, how much by depending on who those players replace. Fardy’s lineout and breakdown skills at that time of the game could well be the best way of limiting the lethal running games of the Savea brothers, with Julian also on the bench, especially as Fardy will be peeved at losing his six jersey and fighting like Ned Kelly at Glenrowan to get it back.
Finally the conservative approach extends to the backs, with Matt Toomua is a good choice to create late plays and apply defensive pressure to New Zealand in place of Giteau or Foley. Horne has his part to play there too, barring injury I think he will be bought on at 13 for Kuridrani in the last five minutes and could be man the thing to shut down any last minute match winning tries by New Zealand.
Of the most likely alternatives, Quade Cooper and Samu Kerevi, I think Cooper has been rightly judged to be too much of a risk so soon back from an extended break. Howeve as a bench player I think Kerevi’s superior running game was a risk the Wallabies could have afforded over Horne’s experience and defence.
Overall given the high stakes, the knowledge that the Wallabies can win this Sydney game with their experienced players. With the opportunity to exploit the very few frailties that this youngish New Zealand side exhibits, I can see why Cheika would have taken less chances with selections during this match.
Boz the Younger
Guest
Yeah, I'm excited to see him start, he can be a match winner on his day.
Boz the Younger
Guest
At times children can be so perceptive about the adults in their lives.
Dandaman
Roar Rookie
Benny Mac is a good selection. For this to work the other guys in the pack need to lift a little bit at the lineout and breakdown so he can be freed up to use his running game. If they do this then the selection will work well.
concerned supporter
Guest
Others should be reminded of your agendas. My 9 year old grand daughter got into the habit of calling other kids "losers" when they did not agree with her.You seem to have the same habit. Also "get a life", teenagers popular expression.No substance.
Boz the Younger
Guest
Yes, that is the second time you have posted that in the comments of an unrelated article of mine CS. You should get a life, loser.
concerned supporter
Guest
@ Boz the Younger, You talk about " superior and bombastic comments".Remember this?The discussion below was about Rugby being perceived by many as being the domain of the private schools,so less juniors were playing Rugby.Elitism was hindering the development of Rugby in Australia. "Boz the Younger said | August 3rd 2016 @ 3:20pm | ! Report " Nah actually, I’m cool with them being elitist if that is what you want to call directing my ticket and Fox fees towards developing teams that I actually want to watch. Wallabies not wannabies, that should be the ARU’s motto as far as I am concerned. Thanks for letting me know that no money was wasted on club rugby though, good to hear."
Boz the Younger
Guest
Counter observations to what? He appears to be trying to start an argument about whether or not the Wallabies are going to win. That is not even what the article is about, rather it is just a discussion about what Cheika's selections might tell us about his game plan. I can't be bothered with blokes who try to pick fights on the internet to big note themselves, it is pureile.
Zack
Roar Rookie
I thought Steve Wright makes some very valid counter observations to the premise of your piece, a dissenting opinion if you will. Nothing unfriendly about it...
Boz the Younger
Guest
Yeah, I wouldn't have been sorry for them to take the risk on the new guys, I was just offering an alternative hypothesis about why they haven't.
Boz the Younger
Guest
You sound a bit superior and bombastic Steve, I don't like the tone you bring to An otherwise friendly discussion about football, so beyond that I won't be engaging you.
Steve Wright
Guest
What you fail to mention in your discussion Boz, is that Oz will be faced with selections from the previous AB team that led 34-17at the conclusion of the most recent hit-out between the teams at test level, together with new selections from very close to the top four teams in recent S18 finals, in which Oz was not represented at semi-final or final levels. Are you seriously suggesting that the combined efforts of recent recalls from Europe and the remnants from an unsuccessful S18 series in Oz can produce the outcome you propose? I do not even consider dipping into discussion between valid comparisons between coaching styles & personnel, nor do I venture into motivational considerations. Well? Are you seriously making the suggestion you do, or has journalistic hyperbole swamped your judgement?
Markus
Guest
A key part of experience is that it is relevant experience. The majority of Horne's experience is now as an out and out winger. He has not played regularly at outside centre for the Waratahs for years now, and when he was there he was consistently among the worst defenders in the competition. If he is brought on late game as a tactical replacement, it would have to be on the wing with Ashley-Cooper shifting in to replace Kuridrani. I am interested to see what tactics both teams take into the game. After seeing most of the NZ teams run rampant in Super Rugby with ball in hand and offloads galore, it would be interesting to say the least if they instead choose to shut down the Wallabies attack with tactical kicking and set piece play.
Markus
Guest
I think the risk of the introduction of new players is quite low. None of the players in the discussion are debutants who may have just had a season they will struggle to repeat. Coleman has 4 seasons and nearly 40 caps in the Super Rugby environment, Lopeti Timani is sitting just shy of 50. Both have been showing consistent improvement in their games over that time. Even Kerevi, the least experienced in the equation, just finished his third season, in the last two of which he was one of the best performing Australian backs. The same can be said of the recent English test series.
Boz the Younger
Guest
Yeah, I would have risked Coleman too but li think it will be ok.
Paulo
Roar Rookie
Good balanced analysis. I would have risked an additional youngster (probably instead of Mumm), think it would be worth the risk if we are down late in the game. Just don't bring him on if we are ahead and need to hold.
Boz the Younger
Guest
Thanks Sen. Yeah, but for the opportunity the Pooper presented I think McCalman would have had much more starting game time than he has.
Boz the Younger
Guest
Thanks John. Yes, no disrespect to Ryan Crotty as he is an excellent player but he is no Ma'aa Nonu or SBW. Giteau should have it over him.
Seb
Guest
Finally, a well though and structured argument from a Roar reader. McCalman should have been in the match day 15 for a while now. Seriously underrated.
John
Guest
Hi Boz, A thoughtful article - thank you. The sides have been chosen so no point complaining about X or Y being there or not. Your approach makes much more sense. I would have preferred TImani somewhere but once you decide to go with a rookie prop then do you really want two rookies on the field at the same time? That is practical selection. What I have not seen in print - yet - is anyone pointing out that Nonu missed the Sydney Test last year. Things were very different when he returned. So it begs the question - if he is also missing this time around (albeit for a different reason) just how significant will his absence be? At the end of the match I hope they all played well and came off injury-free.