Olympic swimming 2000 to 2016: Country-by-country analysis

There had been a range of commentary around Australia’s swimming performances at the Rio Olympics.

Australia finished with ten medals – three gold, four silver and three bronze. In total, 21 athletes out of a team of 39 left home with a medal. Any evaluation should consider the state of swimming at the Olympics in recent times.

It is worthwhile looking at swimming performances at the Olympics since 2000 to see if there are trends. There are now 34 medal events including open water swimming. After athletics, swimming offers the most number of medals and subsequently many more countries are directing resources at winning these medals with the opportunity to move up the medal table.

Medalling countries
Since Sydney 2000, there have been 40 countries that have won medals. There appears to be a level of consistency in the number of countries winning medals at a Games.

Sydney 2000 – 18 countries, Athens 2004 – 20, Beijing – 21, London 2012 – 19, Rio 2016 – 21 countries.

Nine countries have won medals at each Games since 2000 – United States, Australia, Netherlands, Italy, Hungary, Japan, South Africa, France and Russia.

Gold medals
24 countries have won gold medals between 2000 and 2016. United States has dominated the pool winning 70 gold medals. The Australian Dolphins follow with 22 gold. Other leading countries are the Netherlands – 13, China – 8, Japan – 7, Hungary and France – 6 and Italy – 5.

The number of countries winning gold medals at a Games can vary. The facts are: Sydney 2000 – 8 countries, Athens 2004 – 11, Beijing 2008 – 14, London 2012 – 9, Rio 2016 – 14. Rio Games had a higher number of countries winning gold and this suggests a more even distribution on swimming talent throughout the world. For instance, Singapore and Kazakhstan won their first ever gold medals in swimming and Denmark its first gold medal since 1948.

Only three countries have won gold medals at every Games since 2000 – United States, Australia and Netherlands, the latter who won two gold in open water at Rio.

Leading gold medal countries at the Games since 2000 are
Sydney 2000 – 14 gold medals – United States, 5 – Australia, Netherlands, 3 – Italy, 2 – Ukraine, Romania

Athens 2004 – 12 gold medals – United States, 7 – Australia, 3 – Japan, 2 – Netherlands, Ukraine

Beijing 2008 – 12 gold medals – United States, 6 – Australia, 2 – Great Britain, Japan, Germany, Netherlands

London 2012 – 16 gold medals – United States, 5 – China, 4 – France, 2 – Netherlands, South Africa, Hungary

Rio 2016 – 16 gold medals – United States, 3 – Australia, Hungary, 2 – Japan, Netherlands

Multiple countries
Multiple medals data highlights a countries strength across events or perhaps a dominant individual swimmer. Number of countries winning multiple medals at a Games: Sydney 2000 – 13 countries, Athens 2004 – 16, Beijing 2008 – 15, London 2012 – 16, Rio 2016 – 15.

Leading multiple medal countries at specific Games
Sydney 2000: 33 medals – United States, 18 – Australia, 8 – Netherlands, 6 – Italy, 4 – Ukraine, Romania, Sweden, Japan

Athens 2004: 28 medals – United States, 15 – Australia, 8 – Japan, 7 – Netherlands, 6 – France, 5 – Germany

Beijing 2008: 31 medals – United States, 20 – Australia, 6 – Great Britain, China, France, 5 – Japan

London 2012: 31 medals – United States, 11- Japan, 10 – Australia, China, 7 – France

Rio 2016: 33 medals – United States, 10 – Australia, 7 – Hungary, Japan, 6 – Great Britain, China, Canada

What is determined from this data is that the United States is very consistent, winning between 28 and 33 medals. Australia is generally second followed by Japan. However, other countries such as Netherlands, France, China, Hungary and Great Britain can have successful Games particularly if they have one or two dominant swimmers.

Medals won 2000 to 2016
United States is again very dominant with 156 medals. Australia has won 73 medals. Next best are – Japan – 35, China – 24, Netherlands and France – 23, Great Britain – 17, Hungary – 16, Russia and Italy – 15

Interestingly Australia’s most successful Games in terms of gold medals had a common factor – multiple individual gold medallist. There were 8 gold in 1956 Melbourne – Murray Rose 2 gold; 7 gold in 2004 Athens – Ian Thorpe 2 gold; 6 gold in 1972 Munich and 2008 Beijing – Shane Gould 3 gold and Stephanie Rice 2 gold.

My take on swimming at the 2016 Rio Games was that it was a very intense competition and this led to 14 countries winning gold medals and 21 countries medalling. Australia maintained its position as the second-best nation but as history has consistently shown the Australian Dolphins are always many gold medals away from the United States. Australia’s expectation was very high and did we forget that Olympics is a very intense and different competition to the likes of World Championships and Commonwealth Games.

Australia’s main chances were in the 50-100m events and these are always difficult to win as split seconds determine victors. Australia is looking good for Tokyo 2020 with younger swimmers such as Mack Horton, Kyle Chalmers, Maddie Groves, and Taylor McKeown still on the rise and hopefully the Campbell sisters, Emily Seebohm, Mitch Larkin and Cameron McEvoy having another crack at a gold medal.

A point worth remembering is that Anthony Ervin won gold in the men’s 50m freestyle at the age of 35 – sixteen years after he won gold at the Sydney 2000. Kyle Chalmers and Cameron McEvoy may have many more Games to go.