Much has been made of the closeness of the Shute Shield in 2016, culminating in an historic win to Northern Suburbs at North Sydney Oval a few weeks ago.
Up until the penultimate week of competition, eight teams were still capable of playing finals footy. At the end of the regular season only eight points separated minor premiers Sydney University from sixth placed Eastwood – the smallest gap for quite some time.
While there are definitely reasons to see season 2016 in a positive light, there is also cause for concern. If we move away from the top of the Shute Shield ladder, a number of perennial under achievers are there, with Penrith not winning a game this season.
When researchers examining sporting leagues want to understand how even the league is, they’ll look at what is called competitive balance. There are different time frames to consider competitive over, including the short term (i.e. individual match), the medium term (i.e. an individual season), and the long term (i.e. a number of seasons).
In the 106 matches where there was a losing team in first grade, 43 (41%) of these teams earned a bonus point for losing by seven points or less, which is up on previous years.
At an individual season level, yes, it was certainly closer at the top end of the competition, but there was also a sizeable gap between eighth-placed Eastern Suburbs on 54 points and ninth-placed West Harbour on 33 points. From there it fell sharply to 12th-placed Penrith on four points.
A cross-season competitive balance can be measured a number of different ways, but one which is commonly used is the actual to idealised standard deviation (ASD/ISD). Without boring you with the calculations behind it, in essence the more even the competition is in terms of wins (or competition points) the lower the actual standard deviation will be and thus lower the ASD/ISD (the ISD component is in there to compensate for the number of rounds played).
A perfectly even competition with every team winning 50 per cent of their matches will have an ASD/ISD of 0.
The ASD/ISD for the 2016 Shute Shield is 2.227, which while lower than 2015, is actually slightly above the eight year average of 2.195, so there is certainly no statistical indication that 2016 was a more even year in the Shute Shield overall. 2012 is the most even year in recent times, with only three teams enjoying a winning percentage greater than 60 per cent, and the lowest ranked team winning three of their 16 matches.
But I’m not even sure that focusing purely on the Shute Shield is what we should be doing. When you expand the review out to encompass all grades and colts, 2016 doesn’t look much different to previous years.
Sydney University won the club championship, contested six grand finals, won four premierships and had the highest winning percentage (81.0%) of any club. Over the last eight years, Sydney University has won eight club championships, contested 48 grand finals, won 36 premierships, and had the highest winning percentage (83.9%) of any club.
For the record, the gap is closing between Sydney University and the next tier of aspirants, however a major concern for the game is that the same teams, Penrith and Parramatta regularly feature at the bottom.
In 2016, while Parramatta’s winning percentage of 25.8 per cent was slightly up on their long term average, Penrith’s 5.6 per cent was slightly down.
This is not an article knocking the success Sydney University has had. Some 15 to 20 years ago, they were definitely not in the shape they are now, and credit where credit is due.
This is also not an article knocking the efforts of the staff and volunteers of Penrith, Parramatta, or any other club in the competition.
Without the tireless efforts of those involved, club rugby would certainly cease to exist.
Rather, this is an attempt to draw attention to the realities of the situation. Because without a vibrant, and competitive club competition across Sydney, the game itself is at real risk of long term damage.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Likewise Port Adelaide is a SANFL team and a suburb with a population of around 1,200. Despite this they draw 30,000+ fans to home games, clearly not alienating fans of other SANFL teams from AFL support.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
You claim that using the Vikings name means the team appeals to too small a base of fans, yet Tuggeranong is close to 25% of the total ACT population. All those teams I mention attract more fans to single games than the entire population of their geographical regions.
sheek
Roar Guru
I really don't understand what point you're making here. Perhaps I'm not concentrating enough. Anyway, you already have five of your NRC teams, or whatever you want to call this comp. They are the Waratahs, Reds, Brumbies, Rebels & Force.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Apparently Souths are now back with the Rams. A better geographical fit.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
In fact the combined population of all the AFL Melbourne teams' suburbs is approximately double that of Tuggeranong. They seem to do ok.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
And yet the Brisbane team has only lost 1 game in 2 seasons...
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Sheek by your logic Port Adelaide FC would only draw 1,200 people (the population of Port Adelaide) to their AFL games. Their last home game vs Melbourne (I have excluded last weekend's game vs the Crows due to so much potential away support) drew 33,000 fans. That is the exact equivalent to the Vikings as an NRC team. You continually ignore the history behind some of these teams (despite people like myself repeatedly correcting you ) and claim them to be made up then use that as a justification for your argument. It's getting quite boring.
Bakkies
Guest
'And UC Vikings? How’s that going attracting canberra fans outside of Tuggeranong??' Well it's going back to the Kookaburras next year. Brisbane City has history in Queensland and it makes sense to put Brisbane in the title so it doesn't get confused with Sydney The Eagles chose not to align the name with the amateur Cockatoos.
sheek
Roar Guru
"The NRC works everywhere outside Sydney." NSW Country Cockatoos continue to disassociate themselves from NSW Country Eagles, as far as I'm aware. And what exactly is the Eagles? Some convoluted arrangement between country players & three inner-east Sydney clubs?? And UC Vikings? How's that going attracting canberra fans outside of Tuggeranong?? And isn't Brisbane City returning to soccer sometime soon!! Sorry TWAS, the NRC is a sad joke. Like a lot of other things at present in Australian rugby. This is another example of the level our collective thinking has degenerated to over two decades.
sheek
Roar Guru
Why should KC clubs want to go anywhere else? In my view SS should be promoted as aspirational for those seeking a professional career path, & KC promoted as recreational for those seeking to remain on a social footing. Why should everything be about money???
sheek
Roar Guru
This is a fair point, that Kentwell Cup clubs might be happier right where they are. Also, looking at the bigger picture, I would promote Shute Shield as an aspirational comp for players seeking a professional career, while I would promote Kentwell Cup & below as a recreational comp for those who want to enjoy the 'old days' of amateurism & social activity.
sheek
Roar Guru
Nick, The fault lies with NSWRU & perhaps also ARU. if they want to have Penrith as a Shute Shield club, then they're obliged to provide as much support as possible to make Penrtih competitive. This hasn't happened. So for me, the problem lays at the feet of the NSWRU.
sheek
Roar Guru
Nick, It's principally a district vs suburbs thing, as I understand it. Unless of course, you're Sydney university, then you're exempt from these things. The idea is to have 12 districts around Sydney that the suburban clubs all eventually feed into. that's the theory. So Penrith, while underperforming, is a district club. Drummoyne has lost its district influence to West Harbour. Promotion & relegation was tried in the late 70s/early 80s, & almost everyone I have spoken to who experienced it, abhorred it. Good players would abandon their club being demoted, & sign up with another first division club. It created an unhealthy environment. Of course, if we're going to revisit promotion/relegation, then every club needs to be reduced to a common denominator. Say, three senior clubs, one junior (U/20), & maybe one women's. Would the stronger/bigger clubs accept such a scenario?
Bakkies
Guest
The Rays work due to putting the effort in. I can see why Southern Districts aligned with them but due to geographical distance (which is hard enough in Manly and Warringah as it is a public transport black hole) I can't see it working for them.
Bakkies
Guest
'The SS has its place and it is an important one, but it should be very much the top of the amateur game.' That's what Deans said when he took the Wallabies job. He went around Sydney and couldn't get over the behaviour of certain clubs.
Bakkies
Guest
'Possibly because the top of the base has used all its own funding that used to run down through the grades, and intercepted the funding intended for those lower levels, all to try and fund it’s own delusion that it should be professional? ' Out of the top sides only Manly and Eastwood have not done that.
Bakkies
Guest
I would hardly call bastion. Penrith have only been in the comp since '95 and have been woeful. They've only had one decent season. Any decent player they produce gets poached by the top clubs.
Bakkies
Guest
It works though. It's common in Ireland. Lansdowne FC and Wanderers have club houses on the Lansdowne Road grounds, Sundays Well and Dolphin RFC at Musgrave Park in Cork and Shannon RFC and UL Bohs at Thomond Park. The UL Bohs club house is under the West Stand. In terms of pro clubs Bayonne and Biarritz are about 10 miles apart if that.
Bakkies
Guest
There wasn't a team from Illawarra but that was the goal eventually
AussieIrish
Guest
WCR, Sorry the response has been slow, I have not had the opportunity to hit a computer. Yes, I know Randwick had some lower grade players. I was one of the few that left the Eastern Suburbs and travelled west to watch them. However, I understand that the West’s side was also made up of regulars from the NSW Cup, plus some retirees and U20 players. However, the skills difference was marked, as was fitness and toughness. The game was an eye opener to me, as I rarely watch League now and had not realised how far League has progressed, while Shute Shield has marked time or stagnated. You right about the improvement in the top six but the middle two are mediocre and the bottom four are shocking. My point was that even 10 years ago a player from the Shute Shield could transition into an NRL side with only minimum set of changes to their game. Now the change would be immense. I am beginning to believe that this is one of the reasons why the Wallabies lack the necessary depth to be competitive.