Don’t go marking in week one finals fixtures just yet. Though the AFL’s top eight is now settled, the jostling over home finals and double chances will continue.
If results in round 23 go as expected, Sydney will host Hawthorn and Adelaide will host Geelong in qualifying finals. GWS will host North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs will host West Coast.
There’s some good match-ups there, but it just might not happen.
» The Roar’s comprehensive guide to the 2016 AFL Finals
Take the Eagles. They travel to face Adelaide this week. Now, the loss of Nic Naitanui to injury is a big blow, of course. But they’ve gotten results this past fortnight – first an away win to GWS, then a big home win against Hawthorn.
If that run of form continues, the Crows will need to be on their game. The Giants have them on percentage and, if they win their clash against North Melbourne, would be ready to overtake.
As for Geelong, with some of their up and down form against teams outside the eight, who can rule out a loss to Melbourne? For the Dees, it’s a farewell game for Paul Roos and you certainly can’t picture them dishing out the same as they did against Carlton on such an occasion.
Collingwood – Hawthorn’s opponent this week – have shown some decent form of late. They may feel like they can mix up the finals race this week. Perhaps Matthew Pavlich’s send-off will spur Fremantle to an upset win over the Western Bulldogs?
Let’s see how it all plays out. There may be one last shake-up to come.
+1 // Ladder: 1st (16W, 5L)
They’ve been threatening to edge ahead of the Crows for a few weeks and the Swans finally stuck their noses in front in these rankings. North Melbourne played like a team needing a win to shore up its spot in finals, but the Swans held their advantage all afternoon. They would have breathed a sigh of relief when it emerged Lance Franklin’s injury wasn’t serious.
-1 // Ladder: 2nd (16W, 5L)
Though the night was marred by the disturbing actions of an individual, the Crows saw off Port Adelaide’s challenge to keep their momentum in tact. Eddie Betts was superb with five goals in his 250th. Matt Crouch earned the Showdown Medal with 33 disposals and nine score involvements.
No change // Ladder: 4th (16W, 5L)
The Hawks had an unfortunate ruck injury of their own after Jonathon Ceglar was taken from the field. Perhaps not as devastating as the Eagles’ loss, but round 23 is a difficult time to have to readjust.
+1 // Ladder: 6th (15W, 6L)
The definition of a great win that came at a great cost. Following up an impressive road win over GWS by toppling Hawthorn was a huge endorsement at the right time of year. But Nic Naitanui sustaining an ACL injury that means he won’t feature in the Eagles’ finals campaign – and most of next year – is a massive, massive loss.
-1 // Ladder: 3rd (16W, 5L)
The Cats did the expected against the Brisbane Lions and kicked away early. Breaking the ho-hum nature if the fixture was a noteworthy performance from fifth-game midfielder Sam Menegola, who had 33 disposals, eight clearances and 12 score involvements.
+2 // Ladder: 5th (15W, 6L)
Jonathon Patton’s career-high six goal haul for the Giants in their 92-point win over Fremantle could be a timely showing of form ahead of finals.
-1 // Ladder: 7th (15W, 6L)
What this club wouldn’t give to have a weekend without injury. Easton Wood’s ankle injury against Essendon the latest concern. Still, a home final is very much on the cards for the Dogs. A win this week against Fremantle would see them move up the ladder provided one of West Coast or GWS lose. If Hawthorn lose, they’ll be gunning for percentage against the Dockers.
+1 // Ladder: 8th (12W, 9L)
How stiff is Brent Harvey? A below-par game is all it takes for someone to put forward the retirement suggestion. Despite the fact we’ve been through this routine before and time and time again he’s shown he still has it. This time, Boomer’s response was heaped on the Sydney Swans with a season-high 32 disposals, six marks and 3.2 in front of goal.
+2 // Ladder: 12th (9W, 12L)
The Pies are in a decent patch of form and were dominant against Gold Coast. It was 12 goals to one at half time. Travis Cloke would be a decent chance return for a send-off game against Hawthorn after nine goals in the VFL the past fortnight.
-3 // Ladder: 10th (10W, 11L)
Given what was on the line, Melbourne’s performance against Carlton was embarrassing. When there’s finals to play for, you don’t get outplayed by a team on a nine-game losing streak.
-1 // Ladder: 9th (11W, 10L)
It wasn’t one for the archives, St Kilda’s win over Richmond. Don’t let the single-figure final margin fool you. The win was tinged with the disappointment of Paddy McCartin suffering a broken collarbone.
No change // Ladder: 11th (9W, 12L)
Port Adelaide’s best footy this season has been pretty good, which makes it tough to watch them push a side like Adelaide after losing to Melbourne by 40 points just a week earlier.
+2 // Ladder: 14th (7W, 14L)
The Blues produced a strong win over Melbourne, leading almost the entire game. Patrick Cripps had a game to savour with 30 touches, 12 clearances, 13 tackles and a goal to top it off.
No change // Ladder: 13th (8W, 13L)
Neither the Tigers nor Saints would hang their hat on Saturday, but a positive for the future was Daniel Rioli having 16 touches and kicking two goals.
-2 // Ladder: 15th (6W, 15L)
It now seems quite likely this will be another season in the bottom four for Gold Coast. Even if they beat Port Adelaide at home, they still need Carlton to lose to Essendon to avoid such a fate. The club’s history is set to read 17th, 17th, 14th, 12th, 16th and 15th. Meanwhile, that other expansion club is set for its debut final.
No change // Ladder: 16th (3W, 18L)
The Dockers had a poor evening against GWS, producing their equal-lowest score of the season. The damning part of that stat is it means they’ve been kept to 37 points more than once.
No change // Ladder: 18th (2W, 19L)
The Bombers were down by five goals at quarter time against the Western Bulldogs, so to keep the final margin to 40 points showed competitiveness. Zach Merrett had another strong showing with 35 disposals, eight tackles and a goal.
No change // Ladder: 17th (3W, 18L)
You can apply similar thinking to the Lions. Given the margin was 36 points at quarter time against Geelong, the end result (a 60-point loss) was better than it could’ve been.
under rated cats
Guest
pretty accurate this week but cats are undoubtedly looking much more like a top 4 side then both Hawthorn and WCE. My forecast is cats likely to finish 2nd (or very close to it) after this week on the back of a 10 goal+ win and a narrow victory by the crows.
mattyb
Guest
Pope,it's strange you take issue with how brave the Doggies have been this year,I would have thought it's a good thing. You like to compare Norths injuries but you need to stop and consider that if North had played in a similarly brave fashion in the second half of the season they wouldn't have skyrocketed down the ladder.
RooBoy16
Guest
PPV(and other North fans)...I reckon we'll beat GWS on Friday. If we do, who do you think we're likely to play in the EF? Hoping it's the Dogs and no travel first up. I scenario is that we could also meet Hawks in Semis if we progress that far.
Cat
Roar Guru
Lack of speed? That's funny. Do you even know the list, at all? As for DE, Equal third best in the comp (btw Sydney is ranked 17th for DE).
Pope Paul VII
Guest
the link isn't loading, must be adding a truckload of pups to it
kick to kick
Guest
I've been feeling that Adelaide's top spot on the power rankings has been undeserved for a few weeks. But now I'd argue the timing of their drop to second has been misjudged. As they were top going into round 22, a hard fought and skillful victory over Port in a showdown that had finals intensity should have kept them at number one. The Swans despite being the form team for a month had their worst performance for weeks. Well beaten in overall disposals and smashed on inside 50s, they were only kept in it by a tough and level headed back six. Kieran Jack was missed and despite public calm John Longmire will be scrutinizing what went wrong this week. Meanwhile the Crows could go on winning in Adelaide all the way to Grand Final week.
Cat
Roar Guru
" surely the ladder, at least outside the eight, aligns by seasons end?" No, that's not the point of power rankings. It's 'how is a team doing in the recent past' vs. the ladder that is based on the entire season. What a team did 10, 15, 20 weeks ago should have little to no bearing on a power ranking.
me too
Guest
what are the saints doing down there? surely the ladder, at least outside the eight, aligns by seasons end? the saints will be and are currently, the ninth best team - over the last twenty, ten, and five weeks. beaten melbourne easily twice, beaten collingwood easily, will likely miss finals on percentage, and yet there they are - eleventh?
Brian
Guest
MCG a small part of it, its more when teams adjust their game plan as Carlton and St Kilda did. I am not sure Adelaide can or will in week 1 because Adelaide Oval is almost as narrow as Kardinia Park. However come Sydney, GWS or Hawthorn at the MCG the Cats will be found out for lack of speed and disposal efficiency.
Cat
Roar Guru
Yep, struggled to the tune of a 30 point win against Hawthorn on the MCG. Cats have no issue with MCG, their issue is between the ears when they play inferior sides. If the issue was the MCG they wouldn't have lost heavily favoured games to Saints and Blues at Etihad.
Brian
Guest
Because Geelong have had the cushiest draw and the fact that they are equal with Sydney, Adelaide and Hawthorn who have had much tougher draw suggests they are an inferior side. Their last 3 MCG games read: R4 beat Essendon by 30 game in the balance at 3 quarter time R9 lost to Collingwood by 24 points R21 beat Richmond by 4 points When teams try and impose their own styles on narrow grounds like Adelaide tried Geelong's back 4 sweep all easily and the opopssition turns the ball over kicking down the line to Geelong's multiple tall options. However on the bigger MCG when teams adjust and try and beat Geelong through speed and better disposal the Cats are lacking. That is why they have struggled against so many average sides and why they will struggle at the MCG come finals time.
simonjzw
Roar Pro
I think the injury to Nic Nat drops the WCE down a peg or two and I'd back St.Kilda to beat Collingwood ... but that's just me
Mullo
Guest
Um, not even close. http://www.afl.com.au/injury-list
Pope Paul VII
Guest
um North have a similar injury list to the bwave bulldogs
Darren L
Roar Rookie
Agree Jones plays again - why can't he make that his standard? It could be Casboult is left out to give McKay a run or they play all 3 and McKay replaces Everitt - although Silvagni probably comes back in for him.
big four sticks
Guest
Swans fans don't get ahead of yourselves as next week you play your bogey side; Richmond. We are your arch nemesis and we will win. We will knock you off top spot. Go Tiges!
true blue
Guest
I thought we were a chance against Melbourne as we have the wood over them. Psychological advantages go a long way in football. The other day on the radio Chris from Camberwell (a Melbourne die hard) said he was nervous about the Carlton game because Carlton have a good record against Melbourne.
The Original Buzz
Guest
Fair assessment Mullo, I agree. The Hawks are still overrated and won't make the the Grand Final this year. Going back to 2000, no team has won a flag from 4th.
George
Guest
9/2 is the win loss sorry.
George
Guest
geelong have won 5 in a row including adelaide and the bulldogs. Sit equal first on points. Have an injury list of near zero. they have a win/loss ratio againts the top 8 of 2/9. how are they 6th.