Write the Sharks off at your peril

When it comes to great Australian movie scenes, few are as iconic than the opening of Mad Max.

The Night Rider has escaped custody in Sun City and, along with a floozy called Marmaduke, has stolen a police HQ Monaro Coupe, causing mayhem on the post-apocalyptic streets of outback Australia.

All the while he is screaming into the police radio about his escapade.

He is unstoppable.

And then Max turns up and the party ends abruptly in death and flames.

There is a comparison between this scene and the Cronulla Sharks’ season.

Between Rounds 4 and 20, the Sharks beat all comers, including the Cowboys, Raiders, Bulldogs, Broncos, Panthers, Titans and Storm. They were on top of the table and it looked as though they were good things to overcome their demons of the past and finally bring a premiership home to the Shire after 50 long seasons.

And then, just like the Night Rider, the wheels started to wobble… (Click to Tweet)

In Round 21 they went up to the Gold Coast and were held to an 18-all draw by the Titans.

They were still undefeated in 16 games though.

However, the next week they were beaten by a dominant Raiders at home, and followed that loss up with a flogging at the hands of the ne’er-do-well Dragons in Wollongong.

The panic bells surely have started to ring at Shark Park following their 12-6 loss to the Bunnies on Monday night. All of a sudden, they are virtually no chance of winning the minor premiership and could even forfeit a top two spot to the Raiders.

Social media is going crazy with memes like “Are you a Cronulla Fan? Depressed? Ring 1800 10 10 10 (thats 1800 won nothing, won nothing, won nothing).”

Back before season’s start, ageing warhorse Paul Gallen was stung when teased publicly about the Sharkies’ empty trophy cabinet. His team’s resultant run of top form looked to be the best possible response.

However, this month Gallen turned 35 years old and he has missed the last two games with a calf strain – also known as ‘the old man injury’. His side has lost both games in his absence.

Surely the Sharks are cooked and the dream is over. Right?

Not necessarily. This could very well be a hiccup on the road to glory. For starters, there are very good reasons for most of those recent losses.

The draw against the Titans was a cracking, high-quality game that could have gone either way, but in the end went neither. Both sides missed five field goals apiece.

The next week, the Sharks lost Michael Ennis – who has been a huge part of Cronulla’s success this year – not long before the game and the Raiders took full advantage.

The Sharks were also backing up just five days after the gruelling 90-minute game against the Titans. Further, the Raiders are in top form and reinforced that the following week when they beat Melbourne.

Gallen pulled out very late for the match against the Dragons with a calf injury. The Sharks then had their worst match of the season in defence, missing 38 tackles. Every side is allowed an off day.

Following their 50-point flogging at the hands of the Raiders in Round 21, the Rabbitohs’ form has been through the roof as they try to regain lost pride. They nearly beat the Storm, and destroyed the Warriors in Auckland. In the wet against the Sharks they pulled off a six-point win, with the last try coming in junk time.

Losing that match, again without Gallen, is understandable.

However, commentators, fans and trolls have taken it to mean that the Sharks are gone.

Don’t you believe it. And you’d better hope your team doesn’t believe it, or they’ll find themselves getting a football lesson.

A wobble going into the finals is not unusual. Just look at these examples:

Given these examples, the Sharks’ losing streak, while not ideal, is no cause for panic.

Further, not finishing the home-and-away season in first position isn’t anything to worry about. Just take a look at these figures:

As you can see, in the NRL era (1998-present) no side has won the flag from outside the top four.

However, whereas 14 of the premiers over the last 36 seasons (39%) have also been the minor premiers, in the NRL era that has dropped to 33 per cent.

Since 1998 the average ladder finish for the premier has just been a tic over second. The Sharks are still a very good chance to finish in second spot, and at worst will finish in third. They could still come first if the Storm lose to the Broncos and the Sharks beat them in the final round. All is far from lost.

Another stat that people say is against the Sharks is that they haven’t played in a recent grand final. Pre the NRL era, that did seem to be a big factor. However, eight of the 18 (45%) premiers in the NRL era have not had recent grand final experience. That includes the Cowboys in 2015 and the Rabbitohs in 2014.

Further, the Sharks have quite a few players with grand final and big game experience:

Cronulla have six players who have featured in a grand final, and only two of them weren’t victorious. Further, six members of the team played Origin this year. Three have represented Australia.

There is plenty of very good big-game experience in this side.

The stats are clear: Cronulla aren’t gone by a long shot. This could still be the year of the Shark.

Write them off at your peril.