Now that the dust is settled I can revisit my Round 1 prophesies. I underestimated The Giants and overestimated the Power. Apart from that, I was more or less spot on.
Adelaide surprised me for a while with their flashy forward line, but when you squeeze the Crows – as Geelong and, more recently, West Coast did – they pop. And this is why they missed the top four.
I tipped the Bulldogs to finish in the top six teams, but I didn’t factor in the horrendous injury run with which they have had to contend.
Depth is one thing, but the Dogs needed more than that this season and they found it. The Bulldog spirit – the gravel that runs through the veins of every true son of the Scray – kept them in the hunt long after mortal men would have crumbled and wept.
Their finals series may not last beyond the first week this season, but with just a shred of good fortune they would have finished top two. Good luck next year.
And so now we have the makings of a fitting end to a remarkable and thrilling season.
Neither of the top two teams have secured any real home advantage.
After some late-season wobbles, the Giants impressed with a clinical job on North Melbourne. The youngsters and the veterans are firing, and there’s no troubling paucity of big-stage experience in the team.
On form, the Swans look like certainties but pressure does funny things to a player and a team. There’s very little expectation that GWS will usurp their seasoned neighbour, and that will work in their favour.
Whoever wins this one will march into the grand final… It will likely be Sydney… by 19 points.
If so, GWS will remain a good chance of making a prelim, but it will be on the road and they will struggle to win it.
Not long ago Cats fans may have hoped to finish fourth in order to play Hawthorn in Melbourne and avoid a trip to Sydney or Adelaide. A lot changed in a few short weeks and now the Geelong faithful can feel a bit peeved they’re not hosting an interstate team instead.
The Hawks did what they do and produced another narrow win in a pressure cooker, while Geelong cantered to a ridiculous win over Melbourne. The Cats’ last two games before the break were basically training runs against witches’ hats which, combined with a week off, could prove less than ideal preparation.
On the other hand, Tom Hawkins and Daniel Menzel are now kicking straight and if that continues they could do just about anything. Hawthorn are Hawthorn. The winner of this game will win the flag. Geelong by 5 points.
It breaks my heart to say it but the Bulldogs are facing a big ask. West Coast, a team packed with firepower but seemingly without ammo for much of the season, has clicked at the right time. Nic Naitanui is a big loss but they’re well covered in the ruck and will be bursting with confidence.
The Dogs, on the other hand, were poor against the Dockers – disposing of the ball at 46% efficiency – as it appears the horror injury run is finally weighing them down.
West Coast is now playing as well away as they do at home. At the start of the season, on paper, they had a realistic chance of taking out the premiership. They’ve now started to put the theory into practice. The Eagles by 31.
Adelaide will take out their frustration on North Melbourne in a way that will require a “some scenes may be distressing to some viewers” warning before the game. Brent Harvey and Nick Dal Santo will probably get 30+ possessions each just to remind everyone what an absolute cluster-fracas the final weeks of North’s season have been as the Roos get flogged. Adelaide by 58. Adelaide – given space – can strut like hell, but like the Cats of the early 1990s they’ll discover that that isn’t enough when the going gets tough.
These are my predictions for the top eight.
Next week, my predictions for the bottom eight. Stay tuned.
Giovanni Torre
Guest
In regards to Footscray and West Coast I have never been more delighted to be wrong! Carn you Dogs.
Richard
Guest
Good to see you`re back Cat now that you are safely ensconced in the top 4 ,..hahaha,,. .We ve missed you this last 4 weeks..
sammy
Guest
don't you like facts eh birdman
Wayne
Guest
Try being a Brisbane fan and finishing second - circa 2004 and having to play an mcg final versus the cats - wtf
Birdman
Guest
yeah whatever.
sammy
Guest
Groan what part of late hit, in the head, player dazed don't you understand. As I have already spelled out above, Ebert was already under the effects of a collision only moments before Sloane attempted to spoil him. And whilst he went for a concussion test, he didn't have concussion - just a scratch which he himself on radio declared happens in contact sport The whole point here is that Sloan never ever should have been suspended for what happened as what he did was in no way deserving of a suspension. Therefore Gibson should not either - but, as the precedent was set on the incident - late contact to the head, then they were duty bound to suspend Gibson for the same time sloane was. They make the rules, so they need to bloody well apply them. Just because Greenwood did not bleed does not mean the hit was not capable of causing him head damage
sammy
Guest
Hawthorn just seem to get the benefit of the doubt from the MRP / tribunal over the last few years for things other clubs simply do not. The AFL must think Hawthorn players must be angels and never go out to hurt the opposition players outside of the rules. But I mean it is not like these players have a history of offending - pigs .rse. Unlike Sloane who has never - not ever been in front of the tribunal before. Glad the match review panel couldn't be bothered to take that into account http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/07/15/sam-mitchell-deliberately-corking-oppositions-best-players/ http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/hawthorn-defender-josh-gibson-cleared-by-match-review-panel-over-hit-on-michael-close/story-fni5ezdm-1226863282241 http://www.theage.com.au/news/rfnews/lewis-escapes-penalty-for-punch/2009/07/14/1247337122789.html http://www.triplem.com.au/melbourne/sport/afl/news/2016/8/jordan-lewis-may-cop-attention-for-this-incident/ http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/former-afl-umpire-says-cyril-rioli-incredibly-lucky-to-avoid-suspension-20160809-gqobxr.html http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-07-24/gibson-in-strife
Birdman
Guest
Groan. Sloan's contact is to Ebert's face which forces him to leave the field under the blood rule for medical attention and a concussion test. None of which occurs in Greenwood's case. IMHO the only thing that was wrong with the Gibson decision was that a 50m penalty wasnt paid but apparently the ump thought it wasn't late enough and the attempted spoil was in the field of play.
Sammy
Guest
You are a goose. An attempted spoil that was late..both the same. Collects the head of the opponent..both the same..player hit is dazed..both the same. That one player had been hit only a minute earlier and was already suspect (ebert) actually makes sloanes case less bad as his hit was not the full contributing factor. So i suggest grabbing a pair of glasses az every aspect that matters was the same
Birdman
Guest
I've seen both incidents Sammy which clearly show they were different in all the aspects that matter but keep yelling at the clouds if it makes you feel better.
Penster
Guest
Write off Geelong, not at all. Couldn't understand the fuss about Adelaide, but Geelong is right up there in form, condition and skills this year. I've got Swans as my main flag contender and GWS also but they're an unknown in finals.
sammy
Guest
if they decide to suspend a player for an offence, then every time that offence is made they set the precedent and they are duty bound to apply the penalty. I will forgive your oversight here as you obviously didn't see both incidents - as they were exactly the same action. Please also explain to us all how Jordan lewis escaped suspension 2 weeks earlier for his deliberate punch when others have been suspended for weeks for punching. Face it, the match review panel and the umpiring fraternity have taken a real liking to Hawthorn as they do not apply the same set of rules to them as they do to other clubs. I could not give a stuff about hawthorn as a club, I just want penalties to be handed out equally to players who are deemed to have committed the same infringement end of
Birdman
Guest
sure thing, Sammy the MRP (and the umpires) are corrupt and probably on the AFL's payroll to get the Hawks a fourth flag. Face it, your outrage is confected to suit your obvious #anyonebuthawthorn bias. I don't suppose you follow the Crows, Swans or Cats?
Cat
Roar Guru
Didn't you just write them off too? lol
Sammy
Guest
No way. Greenwood was dazed from it and gibson is no angel and has been at the tribunal before. A very bad precedent was set by suspending sloane and therefore gibson for exactly the same offence should get exactly the same punishment. As it now stands the MRP has lost its integrity and is compromised and should be disciplined
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Cheers matty
Birdman
Guest
You can't be serious sammy. It was late but only grazed the back of the head and no claret or concussion test required as was the case with Sloane. Apples and oranges.
Ironmonger
Guest
I am tipping a NSW derby GF. Swans beat GWS, Geelong beat Hawks but lose to GWS on the re-bound
mattyb
Guest
Adams has just had shoulder surgery (yes I know it's his foot that has kept him out) and he's now out for the season.
Dean
Guest
The hawks get to play the Grand Final at home. The extra days' rest for the Swans was spent in transit anyway. You could argue that all interstate teams should get an extra days' rest from Prelim to GF to account for the travel disadvantage.