In my student days, I worked at the Christchurch Casino. Casinos like to portray themselves as places of glitz and glamour but for many they are in fact pits of despair where lives gurgle down the drains.
Case in point: the top 500 players’ club. Known by staff more accurately as the top 500 losers’ club.
For access to this “exclusive club” was not based on the amount of money they won but, rather, the amount of money they spent. And the more you spent, the more invariably you lost. After all, the house always wins.
There were only three times the casino was closed. Good Friday, Christmas Day and the morning of Anzac Day.
On Good Friday a special function was held for the top 500 players. No gambling was permitted but all the food and drink you could put away was on offer.
The doors opened at 19:00. Like a crazed stampede of wildebeest crossing the Mara river, many would rush upstairs at breakneck speed. They’d often knock over waiters holding trays of drinks in a desperate lunge for their favourite machines or tables. There they would remain until gambling resumed at midnight.
If you asked any one of them if such behaviour was normal and might it be suggested they had a little gambling problem, they would probably scoff and snarl at you.
It’s very easy to pick someone one with a gambling problem. They never smile. Talk is restricted to the game at hand. They only have a cold, blank stare at the chips or the robotic feeding of coins into the machines. Tunnel vision makes them oblivious to their surroundings.
Many of these gambling addicts are said to have won big early on or, indeed, their first visit. The expectation of success increases exponentially when you strike big early on. Ensuing losses are shrugged off as minor obstacles to the next big prize. The more they lose, the more entrenched they become.
Michael Cheika appears this year to be similarly in denial. He has a selection and coaching problem. He has introduced quite a few new faces. The problem is he’s chopped and changed more than a casino patron splashing his chips around at different tables.
He knows he’s going to turn his luck around. He just doesn’t quite know how, where and when.
The problem I see with Cheika is that he’s no stranger to success. He did very well for himself in the fashion business and is the only coach to have won both the Heineken and Super Rugby trophies.
He picked up the award for best coach in his first full season as well as steering them to a Rugby Championship and World Cup final.
Moreover, he likes to come into appointments in embattled positions. When Declan Kidney left for Munster in the middle of the 2005 season, Leinster’s chief executive described Cheika’s appointment as a “calculated punt”.
The Waratahs were perennial Super rugby underachievers before his arrival. Nobody would’ve liked to have taken a calculated punt on taking out the ultimate prize in just his second season. Things hadn’t gone too well for him in his previous appointment at Stade Francais but people sure sat up and took notice when he took out the trophy in 2014.
He was a natural fit for the position as Wallaby coach in October 2014. Taking over from Ewen McKenzie in October just one year out from the World Cup was far from ideal. But Cheika seemed to thrive in that embattled environment.
Things didn’t start off too well but nobody in the ARU seemed to bat an eye when he continued with the Waratahs; something unprecedented. Some leeway was given as Cheika was seen as the perfect man for the job, but the pressure must’ve made a bed with his first results.
The November Wallaby tour in 2014 was by no means a success with only first-up wins against the Barbarians and Wales followed by defeats to France, Ireland and England. The Waratahs fell away in form in 2015 and though Australia had a handy schedule in the Rugby Championship, few would’ve tipped them for overall honours.
It’s fair to say Cheika won big in 2015 and few would begrudge his title of best coach at the time. He didn’t quite make the big jackpot but he confidently steered his team in the right direction seemingly restoring pride in the jersey and letting the performances speak for themselves instead of the media circus that had afflicted Ewen McKenzie’s last few games.
For me, England and Wales were Cheika’s finest hours as well as their wins against the Springboks and All Blacks at home in the Rugby Championship. They showed a rounded game for the Wallabies: a combination of heroic defence and ruthless efficiency at the breakdown and the ball in hand.
The problem is a year in rugby can be like a month at a casino. Smiles and confidence can be wiped away in all too brief a moment. Cheika simply doesn’t appear to be enjoying his rugby in 2016. Scowls mixed with sarcastic laughter and profanity.
He was always a coach who wore his emotions on his sleeve but ultimately when things don’t go your way, the joy gets sucked out rapidly from what you do. That’s only human.
I still believe Cheika is the right man for the job but he’s badly in need of an intervention. Someone like Marc Ella or John Eales would do well to pull him aside and lend a sympathetic ear to what he’s been going through and offer him some advice as to how he can turn things around.
The problem is, like a gambling addict, it’s very difficult to own up to having a problem.
Pride goeth before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall. Successful people believe they can turn things around by themselves and the more the world appears to turn against them, the more entrenched their position becomes.
Cheika was adamant an attractive style of rugby was the way to beat England. Nothing is more attractive, however, than a win. By the second Bledisloe Test, that attractive rugby had given way to a higgledy piggledy style of damage limitation. A narrower loss is better than a bigger one.
Things are not going to get easier against a Springbok side battling for its own identity and a Pumas side becoming ever more comfortable and efficient at their own.
Cheika lately seems to be like a casino patron who’s trying different combinations of clothing in an attempt to match the winning outfit he wore when he last won big. The problem is he doesn’t recognise that past successes count for nothing when you don’t approach things with this cold hard reality: you’re only as good as your last game.
In order to win the next game, you need an honest appraisal of where you stand. Someone in Cheika’s private circle needs to step up and tell it how it is.
Every gambler knows
That the secret to survivin’
Is knowin’ what to throw away
And knowin’ what to keep
‘Cause every hand’s a winner
And every hand’s a loser
And the best that you can hope for is to die
in your sleep
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Hi Kia, I wonder if you read Kahneman and the psychology of people that bet. Very interesting. It is a great read also to understand statistics (without teaching you any).
Machooka
Roar Guru
Interesting read Kia Kaha :) Firstly, I'd just like to say that I like profanity, I like laughter, and I like a little sarcasm... sarcasm usually because I'm a little lazy at times. Secondly, and I've gotta say this... I don't like Kenny Rogers. Period. Thirdly, gambling is an insidious disease. Thanks buddy for a well written piece... and yes I also think Cheika is still the man for the job.
Digby
Roar Guru
Really enjoyed that Kia, thank you
HarryT
Guest
Cheika is no deluded addict. He is a very well credentialed coach who has fast open, running rugby embedded in his DNA. His innovative tactics and motivational abilities are respected by both players and coaches. Personally I am glad he is railing against inconsistent referees, poor judiciary decisions, spoiling tactics and a lack of respect for our team's captain.
Mike
Guest
Enjoyed your article, cheers! Don't feel for cheks at all. He wanted the big boy job, his boys Beale and hooper did a great job screwing link. He got the appointment which most wallabies supporters agreed he was the saviour at the time. He would be terrible at poker by the way.. No composure under stress. However he's now in a position to realistically effect change to benefit the wallabies. He'll be a better coach for this year's losses. Provided he learns from his mistakes. His record isn't that bad.. Take out Eddie the bok killer's white wash. It's actually just business as usual. No team is a constant threat to the ab's right now. Any expectation otherwise is going to lead heart ache! Is there any team that you would feel confident of beating the ab's in 3 matches straight? Better odds in roulette would be my guess. As an ab supporter I get the ho hum we won. Another day at the office. Even if we drop one or 2, I see it as great for world rugby. Would love to see the Pumas get a win over us. How great would it be to be an Argie supporter on the day they do it. I do feel for the wallabies fan base, some of my best mates are in it. But changing coaches.. Again, nope can't see that being good for oz rugby. It might be harder lesson for all, if no coach of worth wants it. Poison chalice etc etc. Give cheks his time to make the required adjustments. He had has some good "hard" coaching lessons this year and will need it. If your all about the win then take W snipes advice and always bet on black. They pay about a $1.07 with a win. Being an under dog does have some advantages.
Boz the Younger
Guest
No worries. In fairness to Cheika though I think he has admitted that the status quo hasn't worked and tweaked as he has been able to, the introduction of a better kicking game after feedback in June being the main example of that. It is just that his efforts came up against the All Blacks and any effort that he made was engulfed by the evidently too hard task of beating them. Rather than focussing on selections, which gets obsessed on by commentators because it is the most visible variable which people can identify for change, I think Cheika needs to focus on ways to improve the entire team's performance. The standout example of what he could do personally is to model a more professional attitude in his dress and demeanour. He comes across as quite sloppy, surly and ill disciplined and I can't help but think that is carrying over into some of the on-field inaccuracy and ill discipline that we are seeing from the players. The Wallabies were never going to win that game on the weekend but two acts of unnecessary off the ball stupidity, one late tackle by Adam Coleman and one tackle without the ball by Sekope Kepu, was probably the difference between it being a sub-ten point ball game instead of the twenty point drubbing we got. I think that reflects an attitudinal problem that starts with Cheika, the aggression that he is promoting is great but it has to be controlled aggression or it becomes counter-productive. I think this victim mentaility which he is trying to promote needs to go as well, it has to be having an influence on the way the team is interacting with the refs and negatively impacting on their morale when they are up against it.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Oh to be a fly buzzing around at training. How much rein is Bernie and Grey being given and how much say does Cheika have in the game plan and how much input do senior players have? I tend to agree that on a short term basis Cheika is the right man to turn things around. I wonder how much thinking goes into a long term plan and where he envisaged this team is at for the 2019 RWC. The problem is a man whose name is often banded about - Jake White - is hardly a cause for optimism for a long-term stint as coach. The pressure for results as an international coach is immense. 5 home losses as a club coach is cause for concern but not cause for panic. In test rugby, it is nothing short of a crisis. How to return to winning ways when the expectation of success increases exponentially. Not an easy prospect...
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Thanks for your comment, Boz. This can't have been an easy few months after the many highs of 2015. No radical changes are needed. Just a few tweaks here and there but an admission that the status quo is not right and a change in thinking is required. The crux of the piece is that admitting that is a huge step in the right direction.
Boz the Younger
Guest
Cracking read, thanks. Personally however I reckon that Cheika and the Wallabies will get their act together from now on and get decent results. There were lots of factors playing into the England test series loss including England's massive improvement, but it was still pretty close. The relative lack of preparation and the absence of key players won't be as much of an issue going forward. As for the All Blacks tests, they are just better than the Wallabies, but the hideous loss in Sydney can at least partially be attributed to the lack of a decent amount of recent game time and blew the theory that a month off is a good thing out of the water. Again, that won't be an issue going forward so hopefully we will see an improvement. Cheika needs to get the next ten games right though. I think close losses against the All Blacks as well as South Africa and England away would be tolerated, but any more floggings and any losses to easier teams and Cheika is going to be seriously stretching the friendship with the fans. As much as I hear his payout figure is large, I doubt that it is larger than too many repeats of the million dollars or so in lost revenue the ARU would have foregone due to the smaller crowd in Sydney in Bledisloe 1. Nobody is indispensable.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Thanks Chimnay. Really enjoyed your thorough reviews. The break off before the rugby championship started wasn't ideal but I agree this break comes at the perfect time. It gives him a chance to stand back and reflect, rethink and reasses. I sincerely hope he does and does not dig in further.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Australia have traditionally been a team full of confidence, even if that confidence has not always been justified. Their scrum was shaky but they believed they could still overcome that and find other ways to put on points. They've always been a team great at limiting their weaknesses. I can't help but think that Cheika drumming into the players into the leadup to Bledisoke that the All Blacks didn't rate them backfired on him. It needed tweaking. We haven't had a good Super season or June tests but we know we can play better and we're going to go out firing to prove ourselves. Don't focus on the opposition, but on what your own team can do.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Thanks for the comment. As Mulder said, the truth is out there. It's just up to us to find it. I agree Moore has to go. Cheika has made changes but he needs to make more. Pooper is effective with an in-form Fardy as he added a lot to the breakdown on defence. With his and Moore's lack of form, the Wallabies have struggled in that area and that has repercussions across the park. Pocock should take over the captaincy but the balance of the back row is out. Higgers is not wanted for some reason (admittedly he was hot and cold when he was playing) and some are advocating Timani but already people playing out of position is a problem. You don't want to add more. It's time for Cheika to assess the players at his disposal and fit a game plan around them rather than trying out different players and imposing a style on all of them.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Cheers Brett. A genuine smile on Cheika's face could be the answer to cold fusion as I'm sure it'd light up a good part of Australia.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
A win would certainly do wonders for confidence and releasing the pressure on both the players and coach. Cheika got an improvement of sorts out of the players in Bledisloe 2. My concern is that Cheika thinks he can get further improvement from that game plan against the struggling Boks. South Africa present different areas of attack and the line out and maul for one are going to be very difficult to combat.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Cheers grapeseed. It was pretty grim seeing it first hand. Haven't been back to a casino since...
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
There does seem to be a stubborn persistence to a game plan whilst changing a number of players. Add in a few out of form in key positions and it's hard to get any momentum going.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Cheka was all about the Reds. Cheika, many would argue, is all about the Blues...
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Cheers Ethan. Rugby like poker is all about momentum. The margins between winning and losing are fine. Just look at the England series. That could've quite easily been a series win for the Wallabies. But it's difficult not to panic when your chip count is going down dramatically. It's about patience and timing and getting the basics right. But my favourite hand is 4 2 unsuited so what do I know? ;)
Chinmay Hejmadi
Roar Guru
Great to have you back, Kia. Insightful as always. I think Cheika and the Wallabies need this one week break to take a good, long and hard look at themselves. His thinking seems to be a bit muddled, as you said - trying different combinations of clothing in an attempt to match the winning outfit he wore when he last won big. The good thing for them is that the next couple of games are eminently winnable. Not guaranteed victories, but they can go a long way towards restoring their confidence.
Kiwi in us
Guest
Nice article. I think he is still the right guy for the job. After the World Cup final, I was expecting 2016 to be a rebuilding competitive year for Cheika. I'm not sure how the super teams are handled in OZ, but it was very dissapointing early on in super rugby how unfit the oz franchises were. And the WB, players as well. And Cheika's game plan demands super fit players. It's like he kept trying a game plan with players not able to go the full 80. Who was keeping tabs on the players fitness between the end of the World Cup and super rugby. It just seems that if you can't get your team super fit, you are disadvantaged from the start. And if you are a WB you would personally be prepared to play. Or prepared to be better than last year. Finding that edge.