It’s NRL finals time, and we find ourselves in the position where two of the top four teams have been winning, but aren’t in great form.
The Raiders are the only ones in the top four really doing the business at the moment, though the Cowboys have definitely improved over the past couple of months.
Melbourne have been winning – but certainly not in impressive fashion – while Cronulla have struggled.
If you ask me who’s going to win the Premiership, I am still sticking with my prediction from about six weeks ago. I think the Cowboys can take it home again.
Unless you’ve been there before, you don’t know what a player or team can produce. With Canberra, there’s a little bit of the unknown about them that won’t be revealed until the game. We’ll know a lot more about the Raiders after this weekend.
But the Storm, Cowboys and Broncos can all win it. They’ve all shown they can do it before, and have experience in those big games. The Dogs are another side who have shown the same temperament. They know how to play finals footy. But they come into September in pretty poor form.
That’s why the pick of the weekend’s games is the Cowboys versus Storm. That game, the very nature of it, is intriguing. Both teams are primed for finals footy and have big game experience and players.
I also like the Panthers-Dogs game due its battle of contrasts, not just for family reasons.
The Dogs have plenty of experience, with plenty of their roster having played in grand finals before. Des Hasler has been there and won it. They’re not in great form, but you can expect a better performance with Sam Kasiano back this week.
And remember what happened two years ago, where they made the grand final despite being in poor form, even right up to the semi-finals.
Penrith are in good form, play differently to other sides and have plenty of enthusiasm and youth. While some might say that inexperience could cost them, I’ll stick with the Panthers.
A day game suits them. They have a style that can look messy, but they’re playing with a lot of rhythm. No doubt the Dogs will want to disrupt that rhythm and find their own in the process.
That’s the pressure of finals.
People talk about finals being ‘different’. From a coach’s perspective, everything in the game moves faster. The opening 20 minutes will likely be faster than anything in the last part of the season. There’s more energy. There’s more adrenaline.
What was normal throughout the season will be stepped up, and everyone will be breathing a bit harder.
That’s why experience is important. Guys who’ve been there before can process what they need to do in the heat of battle.
Time under pressure and fatigue can last much longer in finals than other games due to the pace of the game.
It’s important to be accurate at the start of the game. Everyone needs to get themselves into the contest, and that’s where the challenge lies. It’s also what makes great players and great finals players.
Everyone’s going to be nervous, it’s about how well you handle it. There’s a danger with younger players that they get a bit excited. They might start doing things based on the occasion rather than what’s in front of them. Pushing a pass, giving away a penalty, it’s all a sign of what finals can do to a team.
To mitigate that sort of stuff, preparation is key. You can’t stop players being nervous, and you can’t put them in a bubble. Everywhere they go, everyone will be talking about the game.
The best thing you can do is make their preparation as normal as possible.
I like to do this because the game itself is more than enough to get you excited.
If a player is distracted or not quite themselves, it’s relatively easy to notice it early on during the week. Simple things like tickets for family members can prove to be distractions.
You don’t want them to think that it’s not normal.
What brought you to the finals, generally speaking, will bring you success in the finals if you do it a little bit better.
Of course, that all depends on how you’re travelling when you get in there, but the worst thing you can do is introduce uncertainty.
There are two guys I played with that I can think of specifically who were great at preparing for finals games: Freddie Fittler and Stacey Jones.
You just knew from training they were going to have a great game. They showed great leadership. I’m not sure if everyone in the team picked it up, but I certainly did.
Precisely what they did is hard to articulate, it was more just more a feeling and intensity about their work that week.
Players who play with guys like Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Johnathan Thurston will all no doubt have experienced the same thing at training this week.
up in the north
Roar Rookie
My biggest hope is a strong first carry from Morgan, he seems the type who thrives with high confidence and a good start is essential. The multi pronged attack of the Cowbies when JT Coote Morgan and Granville are all possible point creators makes it hard for Melbourne to defend against. It's a no brainer that NQ need to score first and often to not only win tonight but to continue on a winning roll, their form is improving and not many teams can say that.
Hero
Guest
They didn't. Sucked in.
GTW
Guest
I don't appreciate the type of wrestling that the Storm play. Bellamy aims to push every rule to the limit forgetting that footy is what people watch for entertainment; to get away from the real world. If they enjoyed watching paint dry, they'd be Union fans.
alfie's blue shirt
Guest
The premiers finals perfomance in the following year since 2011 2011 Dragons -bundled out in straight sets(finals week2) 2012 Manly -Loss-Win-Loss (finals week3) 2013 Storms -bundled out in straight sets (finals week2) 2014 Roosters -Loss-Win-Loss (finals week3) 2015 Rabbitohs -(finals week1) 2016 Cows -finals week3 ( Broncos to send them out in week 2?)
armchair expert
Guest
Unfortunately they don't have a recognised hooker, don't think Ivan would be interested unless he can get a Rep type hooker to the club
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
Great article and thanks for the insight into finals training. Wise old footy heads used to say "you have to lose one to win one", inferring everything you have hinted at, the excitement and adrenaline, surprises you the first time round. The two teams with the least experience are the Raiders and the Panthers. Luckily they have Ricky Stuart and Gus Gould, who have been there and done that, to keep their respective teams feet grounded. Once they are on the field though, both the Raiders and the Panthers don't really have anybody with significant rep or finals experience. This may be a year too early for them. Next year... watch out, maybe a repeat of 90/91 (as a Panthers fan, hopefully 91!) is on the cards. The Storm look ominous this year and with the Cowboys are my picks for a winner. Everybody else are making up the numbers (I hope I am wrong. Come on you Panthers!).
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Any chance you want to coach the mighty Tigers, Ivan? Please?
Fish
Guest
If the Cowboys keep the Cronk/Proctor combination quiet, and also cover Vunivalu in the air, they should sneak home by superior creativity. For me this final hinges on what Ben Cummings turns up. A wrestlemania fan he is, and that does not bode well for NQ. BUT if he is in a mood and the refs are still smarting over Smiths condemnation of their consistency, then there could be fireworks. Thurston has done bugger all this year in comparison to his normally brilliant best, so he may just explode in this game. Even an unfit Scott will add balance and be allowed less minutes. Danger man for the Storm - Jake Granville. Danger man for the Cowboys - Vunivalu. Remember a depleted Cowboys took it to the Storm last time they met. I think the Storm were in better form back then, and on the night I thought for most of the game the Cowboys dominated. They just lacked that fifth tackle option...... but he is back for this one. The ref scares me for the Cowboys, but I think they are too unpredictable for the Storm. They will win it by the 60th minute and then close it out.
Jimmmy
Guest
Very funny PNG. The Cows were without doubt the best team in the comp in 2015 . The Broncs were not far behind. We were deserving winners my friend . We found a way to win like we had done all season. You guys found a way to lose.
Agent11
Guest
I think all the home teams will win this weekend, can't see any upsets on the cards. Would love to see the Titans win though.
harambe
Guest
Bit of rose coloured delusion going on in this post... It would never have gotten to golden point if linnet hadn't dropped it over the line, or coote not make a double movement, or JT got the conversion. If anything, the Broncs were lucky to still be in it come the 80th minute! Though however you want to look at it, or spin it, the scoreboard is king, the team in front at the end is the better one. You can say, but this was luck or that was the ref's bad call! Irrelevant, what only matters at the root of it really is the final score. Bit like how I've seen people in the media saying the Tigers were more deserving of the titans to slip into 8th...who ever was more deserving was the one that made, because for what ever reasons they still got themselves into a position to make it, and did.
bigJ
Guest
you must be kidding right "flukey golden point premiers of 2015." there was no fluke about it, they where the better team on the night and the season, they bumped off melbourne in melbourne to get to the grand final, that is no fluke. they where the most deserving team to win a premership in probably twenty old years even more so then the bunnies in 2014. cows will take it to the storm but lose, then and take care of the donkeys and get their rematch in the GF.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Anyone's final this year. I think the Raiders are the team to beat. Their momentum coming into this finals series and the team are playing some brilliant attacking football that pretty much no team can defend at the moment. JB Leilua is pretty much unstoppable with Rapana on the outside. I think they will get to the Grand Final because they will beat the Sharks this weekend and whoever comes through the 2nd week. Whoever wins from the Storm v Cowboys game this weekend will be their opponents in the Grand Final.
bigJ
Guest
Ivan, nice article mate and I agree with you on most of your points, you say that the Cowboys can do the repeat, something that no team has done since 1993 (Broncos) or 1998 if you want to get technical (bronocs again as they won super in 1997 and nrl 1998). Firslty the cowboys have to get past the Storm, and with thier resent childish off field antics I really dont like thier chances of beating the storm this week, although last year they did it to get to the final, I dont see a repeat of it this year. I have no doubt they get to the Grand final, but again they will have to be up against the storm. The sharks are already gone and the raiders do not have the expereince to get it done. If its comes down to expereince and the team talent its pretty much a storm v cows gf. On a personal note I hope the panthers kick the living daylights out of the dogs, putting them back in their kennel for good.
PNG Broncos fan88
Roar Guru
All the stars fell in alignment for the Cows last year and Brisbane shut up shop after the 50th min in the GF to hand NQ the victory. Not this year though, Storm will dismantle them this week and Broncos will overcome them in Townsville. Out in straight sets I say, to the flukey golden point premiers of 2015.