One of the greatest rivalries of the NRL’s modern era continues on Friday night, as the North Queensland Cowboys duke it out with the Brisbane Broncos in an all-Queensland grand final replay two weeks early.
The Cowboys missed out on the week off after losing to the Storm in a thrilling qualifying final last week, going down by six points.
The defending premiers have had an up-and-down season in 2016, but managed to sneak into the top four among a tough field in the final few rounds of the regular season, allowing them this second chance and a shot at redeeming their September campaign.
The Broncos, on the other hand, had a much better opening to their finals, breaking away late against the Titans to register a convincing 44-28 win in a match filled with controversy.
In between a penalty try and a wayward James Roberts boot, the Broncos were in a fight, but managed to douse the fire of a scrappy Gold Coast outfit.
After finishing fifth, losing out to the Cowboys on points difference would you believe, the Brisbane side continue their hunt for revenge, looking to erase the memories of last year’s painful decider.
James Roberts has been named in an extended 18-man squad for the Broncos on Friday but is in serious doubt as he comes up against the judiciary for a kicking incident in the win over the Titans.
Tom Opacic will make his return from a shoulder injury, alongside Roberts in the centres.
The Cowboys will be without Kane Linnett, ruled out with a torn calf muscle and replaced by 23-year-old Javid Bowen.
Johnathan Thurston
Would it be anyone else?
Thurston is one of the all-time greatest players in rugby league. The man can turn the tides and momentum of a match as easily as you eat your morning toast, and he knows his Queensland Origin teammates at the Broncos inside-out, after playing alongside many of them for years. That inside knowledge of the enemy gives an extra edge on top of a stacked shelf.
JT will be barraged with late hits and the usual rough and tumble, but if he gets on a roll, Brisbane will have a very tough time putting water on that fire.
The mental game
The Cowboys are defending premiers, and with that comes the added pressure of said defending.
In a finals game with the expectation of going back-to-back, keeping that hunt alive, doing everything to avoid disappointing your fans and yourself, adds a lot of pressure.
Coming off the back of a loss as well, North Queensland need to stay mentally strong.
The mental side of the game is as big a part of rugby league as the physical, and the Cowboys’ chances hinge on their ability to push all that pressure and emotion to the side for 80 minutes, and concentrate on the game they have, not the game they might make in two weeks’ time.
Shutting down the big men
The Broncos have an intimidating forward pack featuring international players like Corey Parker, Sam Thaiday and Adam Blair.
Brisbane have relied on their big men rolling forward all year, setting up the backline and keeping the opposition on their toes.
The Cowboys have a strong pack of their own, but if they want to stay ahead of the competition, they have to find a way to shut down the Broncos.
The North Queenslanders need to slow the play the ball, and keep Thaiday and Parker from getting the quick jump one-off the ruck.
The back three
Darius Boyd, Corey Oates and Jordan Kahu are Brisbane’s last line of defence, but are also an extremely threatening force in attack, covering most of the park between them.
The veteran Boyd has a way of guiding his wingers across the park, but also possesses an explosive burst that can tear any defence to shreds.
If the Cowboys don’t kick for the grass and fail to swamp the return, they could concede long-range tries.
The Milford factor
Anthony Milford is the danger man. His playing style is reminiscent of Hayne in 2009 or Ben Barba in ’12 – he has that x-factor that can turn a game on its head.
Very few five-eighths in the game are as sharp as him, it’s his lack of ball play for a half that deceives the defence, he’s intent on attacking the line, creating space and tearing the defence apart.
Not to mention he can sell a dummy so well he could probably sell you your own house.
The problem is consistency. Milford can be the best in the NRL on any given night, but he’s also a very plain rugby league player when it doesn’t click.
Battle of the forwards
Back to these forwards, but for good reason. Parker, Thaiday, Blair, Matt Gillett and Josh McGuire make up one scary forward pack.
The Cowboys have the firepower to respond though, with players like James Tamou, Matt Scott, Ben Hannant, Jason Taumalolo, Gavin Cooper and Ethan Lowe.
It’s a mammoth collision of muscle mass, tight jerseys and sweaty limbs – a clash of titans if you will – and it will go a long way to deciding the contest.
While the respective back lines will do all the flash and show, scoring most of the points, the forwards set it all up, and the Broncos need to win that fight.
The key is to show dominance early, hit them hard and fast straight out of the gate, make it hard for them to get back into the contest.
Who wants to win by one this time?
This is a contest that’s nearly impossible to decide. Their last two matches have been decided by one point, and they finished on the exact same amount of points at the end of this season.
I would say a draw but someone has to win this one in the format of finals footy.
Going off late-season form, the possibility of the Broncos missing Roberts, and most importantly, the home advantage, the Cowboys just edge ahead.
Cowboys to win by 4
Kickoff: 7:55pm (AEST)
Venue: 1300SMILES Stadium, Townsville
Referee: Matt Cecchin
TV: Live on Nine and Fox Sports
Betting: Cowboys $1.47, Broncos $2.75
Overall record: Played 44, Cowboys 12, Broncos 30, Draw 2
Record at venue: Played 24, Cowboys 8, Broncos 15, Draw 1Cowboys
1 Lachlan Coote 2 Kyle Feldt 3 Justin O’Neill 4 Javid Bowen 5 Antonio Winterstein 6 Michael Morgan 7 Johnathan Thurston 8 Matt Scott 9 Jake Granville 10 James Tamou 11 Gavin Cooper 12 Ethan Lowe 13 Jason Taumalolo Interchange: 14 Rory Kostjasyn 15 Coen Hess 16 Scott Bolton 17 Ben HannantBroncos
1 Darius Boyd 2 Corey Oates 3 Thomas Opacic 4 James Roberts 5 Jordan Kahu 6 Anthony Milford 7 Ben Hunt 8 Josh McGuire 9 Andrew McCullough 10 Adam Blair 11 Sam Thaiday 12 Matthew Gillett 13 Corey Parker Interchange: 14 Jarrod Wallace 15 Tevita Pangai 16 Jai Arrow 17 Alex Glenn 18 Jonus Pearson
Rob
Guest
Kane Linnett out is a blessing. You are right he's in fine form at DROPPING THE BALL. I'm excited that Bowen is playing in his place. At least JT. will have an opition to pass the ball too instead of Cooper or Coote. Lowe is a big loss but Hess is bigger and full of enthusiasim. Cowboys will be best served attacking Milford relentlessly inside the attacking 20 unlike in last years GF when JT. played down the left all night before giving it to Morgan on the last play of the game. I'd be happy to see Ponga play. He has beautiful hands and can beat the first man consistently.
Brett
Guest
Broncos fan hoping for a win, but really I'm happy with whoever progresses onto the next round. Pumped for a great game, and I'm predicting another 1 point nail biter!
harambe
Guest
I think you're right, the injury to Lowe is definitely a leg up to the broncs. I would expect milford to be probing away all night against that side of the cows, which I imagine would be a rotation of Hess and Kostjasyn replacing Lowe's usual workload. I wouldn't worry much about Kostjasyn in defence but Hess is a bit of an unknown for mine. I'll be interested to see if these injuries will be a kick up the arse and put some fire to dig in back into some of the cowboys who I think have been out-enthused in effort and desire in recent weeks. Before Lowe's was announced as injured, and if the cows cleaned up the errors in their own half that cost them against the storm I had them being too much for the broncs. Though I've never read into past form overly much with Qld derby's, the teams always get another leg against each other. I think it all looks, on paper at least, very even now and anyone's game, should be a good contest.
B-Unit
Guest
Was Cecchin not the referee who gave Cronulla seven tackles to score three years ago? Maybe he'll do the Broncos some favours too...
Albo
Guest
With form backrower Ethan Lowe now gone for the season, the in form Linnett already out, some doubts about Winterstein, and a few other Cows carrying injury ( eg Scott) or with form tapered off (eg Morgan), I think the Broncos are now a good chance of upsetting the locals. Should be an intriguing match !
MAX
Guest
Gerard Sutton has been punished by headmaster Archer to do the pocket under Ben Cummins a GIO. No appointment has been listed for the hapless Badger. The Cowboys smiled when Cecchin got the gig with a percentage wise record in their favour.
steveng
Roar Rookie
The vital question is, are Sutton, Badger, touchies and the bunker (that were there last week) adjudicating? That is the big question, because if they are the Broncos are a 'SPECIAL' to win by a big margin and win the GF.
Conan of Cooma
Roar Rookie
It's a tough one to pick! I'm going to have to back the home team on this one. Cowboys by a small margin.
B-Unit
Guest
I think it's going to come down to one thing: Who wants it more? Broncos by 7.