Having been defeated in fairly emphatic fashion by the Swans in last night’s preliminary final, the next few weeks will undoubtedly turn to questions of what went wrong for Geelong, and what they need to do to go one step further next year.
Personally, I think there are several reasons why the Cats were unable to go all the way this year.
Despite their off-season recruiting spree, the Cats ultimately lacked the depth to contend with other top teams. They sold the farm to get Dangerfield at the end of last season, giving up draft picks 9, 28 and untried midfielder Dean Gore, while also recruiting Zac Smith, Lachie Henderson and the other Selwood, Scott, to fill roles.
Given their list profile, the Cats rightly judged that they were in premiership contention, and decided to fill holes on their list with seasoned players rather than go to the draft.
Recruiting Dangerfield was absolutely the right move – they netted themselves the best player in the competition, and 16 other clubs would have made the same move had he been up for grabs. His presence in the midfield has allowed Joel Selwood more freedom and taken the pressure off the captain.
Selwood the Younger was always going to be a ‘wait and see’ proposition, given he came to Geelong rehabbing a serious ankle injury, He provided a reasonable return when he did get on the park in the second half of the year, and will be better next year for having some continuity in his football.
Henderson and Smith both had good seasons, although Smith tired towards the end of the season.
However, I would argue that the issue here is that the Cats made these trades at the expense of improving their team depth. As the old adage goes, a team is only as good as its bottom six players, and I would argue that Geelong’s recent recruitment hasn’t done much to improve this.
Dangerfield, Smith, Henderson and Selwood should all be best 22 players at their best, and certainly bring value to the team, but it has meant that Geelong has a team of several superstars, a layer of good, solid players, and then the level drops off dramatically.
It’s harsh to single out players, but those such as Jed Bews, Tom Ruggles, and Josh Cowan would probably not be playing in most other sides. Jackson Thurlow’s absence down back really hurt the team, as it meant Ruggles and Bews were relied upon to player taller than they would normally, and meant the Cats lacked rebound off half back.
Cowan tries hard, but is just an honest player. Of those who didn’t play last night, players such as George Horlin-Smith, Billie Smedts, and Darcy Lang would also fit this bill.
Coupled with this has been the fact that the Cats have had few players who have improved this year – I struggle to name one who has genuinely improved. Nokia Cockatoo took some steps forward before he got injured, as did Jake Kolodjashnij, but both are still developing.
The middle tier of players including Mark Blicavs, Josh Caddy, Mitch Duncan, Steven Motlop, Rhys Stanley, Jordan Murdoch and Cory Gregson all went backwards or failed to improve this season, showing glimpses of their talent but often frustrating supporters with their lack of consistency.
Sam Menegola has been a find, but you can hardly label him as an improved player given this is his first real year in the system. At a pinch, Daniel Menzel has been the big improver this year, but that’s only because he was coming off a low base with his injuries – we already knew he was a talented player.
Finally, the team overall lacks class. It’s a strange thing to say given the Cats were the epitome of class in their premiership years of 2007, 2009 and 2011, but they currently have few players on their list who are elite kicks or have elite pace.
Dangerfield, for all his ability, often has shocking kicking efficiency given he hacks the ball out of the centre so often. Duncan and Guthrie are probably the classiest ball users, but again, this is not used often enough. Guthrie seems to have been thrown around all parts of the ground rather than being settled in one position, and his form has suffered.
Compare this to their opponent of last night. Sydney has also attracted big-name recruits, such as Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett, but this has been coupled with topping up their depth. Players such as George Hewett, Dan Robinson, Dean Towers, Harry Cunningham, Harrison Marsh and Sam Naismith are all depth players, but all have played roles, and would arguably be playing in other team’s first choice sides.
Their young players and those in the middle tier – players such as Isaac Heeney, Jake Lloyd, Zac Jones and Jeremy Laidler have all improved this year, and played their roles for the team. The Swans also got good value from their young players, notably Allir Allir, Callum Mills and Tom Papley, which has helped them big time.
The Swans have also made sure that they’ve kept some class in their team – Gary Rohan at half forward and midfield and Mills in defence being two that come to mind. They also have a number of good ball users around the ball and especially coming off half back.
Geelong is in a precarious position – their top six rival anyone in the competition, but they lack the depth to make a premiership assault going forward. So, do they continue to top up with players like Brett Deledio and Daniel Wells, as has been speculated, hoping that bringing in good players to play roles will help paper over a lack of depth overall (a strategy North Melbourne has recently employed to minimal success)? Or do they make wholesale changes, going to the draft to bolster their depth, but potentially robbing themselves of the best opportunity to win a flag with Dangerfield and Selwood in their prime?
I’d argue that, first and foremost, they need to recruit more class, more run off half back, and more speed. Players of this ilk would hopefully assist their middle tier players to develop and have more of an impact next year.
They need to decide which of their younger players can make the grade, because their current depth won’t take them to a grand final. If players like Smedts, Horlin-Smith, Murdoch, Gregson and Lang won’t take them to the next level, then the best way forward is to delist or trade them and build through the draft.
A decision needs to be made on Motlop – his development has stagnated, but at his best he can be a match winner. He’s exactly the type of player they need more of, so it would be a big call to trade him, but the value they get in return may outweigh the impact he can have over the next few years. Letting him go may allow them to snag a few quality players from other teams.
The club recruited for a flag last year, but their lack of depth has meant they’ve fallen short. The pieces of a successful team are all there, but they need players with more class and who will provide a more consistent effort. Going to the draft, or bringing in younger players from other clubs, may set them back a few years, but would mean that they will be better placed to challenge for a flag again in a few years, with Dangerfield and Selwood still in their prime.
I hate pies
Guest
You nailed it Jacques. Geelong had enough inside 50's to win, but they couldn't get separation from the Swans defenders at all. Their forward line needs a rebuild, and their game plan needs modernising.
DH
Guest
Bartel doesn't play backline. Wing or defensive forward. But you're right, the presence of Mackie and Enright in defence is ok in isolation but it means there is no pace or drive from half back. The other glaring problem with the cats is their forwardline. They are second only to Carlton for the worst forward line in the league. They get the most service and not only do they struggle to convert, they let the ball really slingshot out with very little pressure on a regular basis. Having Hawkins and Stanley up front means they can't afford to bring in another big guy like Vardy or Clark because this would only make the situation worse. But Stanley and Hawkins don't do enough to present or bring the ball to ground. Menzel was a huge loss for the Prelim. Realistically, the cats just need one pacy rebounding defender of which there are plenty around and another mobile taller forward. I wouldn't be surprised if they took this from the backline (Mackie, Kolo, Henderson who shouldn't have played Friday was clearly underdone).
DB
Guest
As a Geelong supporter, I'm happy with the season, I picked them at the start of the year to probably just make an elimination final and go no further and I doubt many here had them penciled in for a tilt at the Grand Final. Sydney match up well on Geelong, and I feel if Geelong played the Bulldogs or GWS instead then they could of won.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
An article about Geelong going forward without mentioning the age of their backline? Enright, Corey 331 35yr Bartel, Jimmy 304 32yr 9mth Lonergan, Tom 185 32yr 3mth Mackie, Andrew 256 32yr 1mth Taylor, Harry 203 30yr 3mth That is pretty much your back line is over the age of 30! A combined 1279 games of experience. Assume Enright won't play - how do replace an All Australian backman? The backline has kept Geelong in a number of games this year - and it toweled up the Crows. Take those players out (through retiring and getting older/slower/injured) and it will put more pressure on the team. Can you just 'top up' the backline? The Cats had one of the softest draws this year. They played Brisbane and Essendon twice. Finishing top 4 this year will ensure they get a very hard draw next year. Add in the age of the backline and 'selling the farm' this year they may be in for not only a tough year next year, but falling off the cliff after that. (NB. This comment may be biased by the fact that I am a Crows supporter and still have not got over Dangerfield going to the Cats.)
Andrew
Guest
Trade Hawkins?! Laughable comment.
Gecko
Guest
Giovani you're painting Motlop and Hawkins as vital cogs while lambasting the forwards' defensive pressure. Yet Motlop and Hawkins are the main reasons (along with Rhys Stanley) why the ball is getting rebounded so easily. In 2016, a forward's output is not just measured in goals. The Geelong forward line coach needs to take some of the responsibility for the inability to create space in the forward line, the inability for the smalls and talls to work in unison and the inability to provide defensive pressure.
Raimond
Roar Guru
The Cats need a massive cleanout. Bartel, Enright, Mackie, Taylor, and Lonergan should go. Hawkins could go to a low-ranking team with scoring problems perhaps. Tough decisions have to be made.
Donde es Fuss
Guest
Bali, the gold coast, hawaii or vegas are my picks
Don Freo
Guest
Maddie, Geelong hardly "sold the farm" to get Danger, Zac Smith, Henderson and Selwood. Is was a recruiting masterstroke. They have all done well and it cost them hardly anything. To finish 3rd is hardly a failure. What do they have to do next year? Carry on with the same processes. Isn't didn't fall too far short.
Don Freo
Guest
I don't think anyone will pay more than his final year contract at Freo. Ballas has to stay and work for his place. He now sits behind Sunny and Yarran...but it is unlike him to not take up the challenge and fight for his spot.
Giovanni Torre
Guest
This season Geelong beat Adelaide, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs twice. They smashed the Eagles with ease, and beat North 15.15 to 12.2. The only top eight team Geelong didn't beat this season was Sydney. Against Sydney on Friday night the Cats had 72 inside-50s... for eight goals. Rather than say the team is fundamentally crap and "lucky" to get this far, it makes more sense to point out their major issue - which has been the lack of a consistent second marking option up forward, and the lack of defensive pressure from their forwards. Travis Varcoe and Steve Johnson were handy for Geelong in this regard. Nakia Cockatoo in his recent VFL outings laid a lot of tackles. If Geelong's forwards put on the pressure necessary to trap the ball in their forward line, they would rack up huge scores (on the basis of the ability of the Cats mids to generate drive). People bay for Motlop's blood, but with 38 goals he was the Cats' second-most prolific forward this season. Then there was Menzel with 33. Geelong needs someone to stand up and deliver more. Henderson's foray forward on Friday night was obviously a disaster... But if Lonergan kicks on next year, it might be a good idea to throw Henderson forward on a permanent basis and see if he grows into the role. (PS - Anyone who actually watched Hawkins play against Hawthorn three weeks ago wouldn't be talking him down. He was absolutely vital to the win. If the Cats delivered the ball with more purpose he'd have done significantly better this year, rather than having to fight for the ball on the ground after it has been sprayed in wildly).
Asd
Guest
Where do you start.Two great midfielders. Aging back line.Average forward line.There time will come again.But not for a while.Never was a Geelong fan.But liked the 3 premierships they won .
Don Freo
Guest
My tip is Ballas to stay at Freo. I don't think anyone will
Paul D
Roar Guru
Pretty good article. As you say quite a few of their players went backwards this season, particularly Motlop and Hawkins. My personal theory as to why Hawkins has struggled is all that weight he lost, to strip down for the more minutes he'd have to spend on the field with the new interchange rules. Problem is as others have said Hawkins is pretty slow regardless so all he has done is taken weight off his frame which is leading to him get muscled out of contests constantly. As for Motlop, he should be traded while he still has some currency. He had a very disinterested season this year. Otherwise agree with what others have said regarding more class, and I do think they need to take a good long look at their lower tier players as to how much potential they have left unspent. They're still a good side though, plenty of positives moving forward.
13th Man
Guest
I know he is much hated at Geelong but would Ballantyne potentially add something to that forward line? It would be a surprise trade but perhaps Ballantyne for Kersten would be a trade that would add to both teams.
Birdman
Guest
Where's Cat?
Deep Thinker
Guest
As a Cats fan - I am very happy with how the season went and how the team is shaping up in the future. No team in the comp has a better win/loss record against top 8 sides. Based on the home and away season - Geelong has the 3rd most points score and 2nd least points scored against, had the equal most wins and 2nd highest percentage. Bews, Lang, Diuncan, Kerston and Cowan are all improvers this year.. Horlin-Smith and Smests couldn't break in but were good performers at VFL level. Motlop was slighly down but a very good player who they should stick with.]] By no means is this side perfect, but you can pick holes in any team if you try hard enough. In my opinion, Chris Scott is the most underrated coach in the comp - having transitioned the Cats out of their golden era into a team that is still up there despite having had very few quality draft picks for a long time now.
jacques of lilydale
Guest
Problems? Their coach, has no imagination and nous, their forward line, Dangerfield can't kick, gets it a lot but does'nt do anything with it half the time. Ageing champions that look and are slow when the heat is on in finals. Their second tier players don't deliver. Time to clear the decks at the Cattery.
Gecko
Guest
Gotta agree with everything 13th man says and Maddy's questions are excellent. Given they finished top 4 in 2016, I think that one or two classy recruits like Wells or Deledio could keep Geelong's premiership window open, at least for 2017. Lonergan and Enright can give them one more good year and Taylor can still give them two (and there are no star young tall defenders who are demanding game time). Caddie, Motlop, Duncan, Blicavs, Smedt and Murdoch should all be trade bait because they seem to have reached their ceiling at Geelong but could develop further at another club. Maddie's right that Guthrie needs to be settled into one position - probably half back. Geelong perhaps need a new forward line coach too.
On the other hand
Guest
Geelong has a lousy forward line. Hawkins and Henderson are painfully slow and cannot jump over a tin of spam. Liam Jones of Carlton would be just as good as these two clowns. What has made them in the past has been plenty of decent ball being served up. That has since dried up due to other teams catching up and passing them. Retirements coming to their old guard will see them bottom out. They will probably be around the 8 next season but after that only backwards from there.