Geelong have the services of Patrick Dangerfield for at least four more years, which is important because the Cats have a few holes in their list to fill in October.
Dangerfield just completed one of the most amazing single seasons in AFL history. It was capped off by a record-breaking 35-vote performance in the Brownlow medal, to go with his sweeping of practically every individual award in 2016. There is little doubt as to his power to create scores on his own, and his ability to not just create space through run and carry, but to suck opposition players into the Upside Down by putting on his unique afterburners.
In the week before the finals commenced, I introduced the DangerZone. The DZ charted the top 30 players for metres gained per game and the top 30 players for clearances per game on both of those metrics.
There is a very clear trend in this: the best clearance players tend to have low metres gained, and vice versa – there’s almost a gravitational pull at either end of the chart. There are a group of half a dozen players that sit as above the average of the top 30 in both metrics – check out where Dangerfield sits.
He is in his own solar system.
Having a player of this ilk is a really good thing. 35 Brownlow medal votes hasn’t happened before – indeed, Dangerfield is the ninth player in modern times to have earned 30 votes in a single year. Having he and inside warrior Joel Selwood running the point is a shortcut to good football.
But as for the rest of the Geelong side? There are holes everywhere you look. Not major holes – the Cats won 17 games with a percentage of 143 this season, despite losses to Collingwood, Carlton and St Kilda – but gaps in their playing stocks that can be exposed in individual games.
That is undoubtedly what happened to the Cats in their preliminary final. Sydney are as close to a complete football team as any team in the post-2000 era. The premiership Hawks, the pre-2010s Cats, the threepeat Lions and the current Giants teams have very few weaknesses in their playing stocks. Sydney are at that level, having unearthed a treasure trove of young and bargain-basement talent to complement their blue chip core.
Geelong? Well, there’s talent there, but not of the same quality as those sides who’ve gone on rampant runs at the top of the ladder.
It means the Cats enter this off season with similar stakes to the last one, albeit with one key difference: they have their superstar.
The guts
We’ve known all year that the Cats were thin through the middle of the ground. Geelong’s big midfield move of last off season was to add Dangerfield at the top of their depth chart and slide everyone else down a position – that’s a gross oversimplification, but personnel wise that was pretty much it.
But it was effective. The Cats had deteriorated from first to worst in clearance and contested possession differential between 2008 and 2015; they rectified that this season. Geelong surged from 13th to fourth in contested possession differential during the home-and-away season, and from last to third in clearance differential. The scale of the improvement is remarkable.
But, it has evidently been driven by two players: Dangerfield and Selwood. Geelong are second in the league in clearance executions by their top two players with 315. Sydney are first on 337, and the Eagles are third on 299 – Gold Coast down in 18th with just 163 between their top two (remarkably, Gary Ablett and Dion Prestia are one and two for clearances at the Suns this season despite each playing just 14 games).
That’s a great thing for Geelong. Adding Dangerfield has led to a marked improvement in Geelong’s ability to win the ball in the middle of the ground. The pre-season question, “how much can one player improve one of the worst midfields in the competition”, has been answered definitively: a lot.
But, the improvement has been far less pronounced among Geelong’s broader midfield group. The Cats rank second in clearances won by their top two clearance winners, and 13th among players third through to seventh on their clearance win tally board.
Geelong are one of four teams whose top two clearance winners won more than their next five highest clearance winners combined. The others are West Coast (more on them next week), Carlton and Fremantle. Every top eight side bar West Coast and Geelong ranked in the top seven for clearance wins by players ranked third through seventh – Melbourne, ranked fifth, stop this from being an exclusive finals side club.
That’s not to say this is inherently good or bad. The Cats won 17 games this season, where Carlton and Fremantle won just over half of that combined. The Eagles did okay this season, too. But it does illustrate Geelong’s challenge: they need more quality running through the middle of the ground.
Any sane, considered person would consider it unlikely Dangerfield will be able to back up next year. Joel Selwood is, somehow, still one of the most reliably uninjured players in the league despite the way he plays.
Should either or both of them regress a little next year, or be injured for any stretch of time, questions will be asked of the next tier of Geelong midfielders. On 2016 form, they would fail.
Two new forwards and one new back
It doesn’t end there. Despite their bevvy of tall players, the Cats are a couple of forwards short of a functioning attacking set – an issue which manifested itself frequently throughout the year.
Geelong’s home-and-away percentage of 143 is really good, but was driven by a miserly defence rather than a fully-functioning offence. The Cats scored 101 points per game by virtue of will and determination, otherwise called repeat inside 50 entries. Their issues with poor inside 50 entries are well known, as is their tendency to kick-and-hope or take shots from difficult locations.
The Cats’ forward line looks slapdash, particularly when compared to the more clearly-defined positions and roles Geelong exhibit across the rest of the ground. Tom Hawkins is the power forward, and Lincoln McCarthy the small forward, but otherwise it is a cavalcade of resting ruckmen and flakey midfielders. Daniel Menzel kicked 33 goals in 18 games this year, but I’m not sure what his defining AFL characteristic is.
Geelong’s midfield dominance and hardy press should translate into a high-scoring football machine. The real result is a notch above so-so. They’re heavily reliant upon their midfield remaining potent.
The issues are less pressing in defence, where the Cats are likely to retain their competitive advantage for some time. As we discussed a couple of weeks ago, Geelong are built to dominate in the air, particularly in defence. They recorded a season-long differential of +5.3 contested marks per game – the next best was Sydney on 2.6, and most teams fell in the 0 (+/-1) range.
In this regard, Geelong’s defence is built on depriving their opponents of territory and possession. The Cats allowed their opponents inside 50 a league-low of 44.5 times per game in the home and away season, almost 20 per cent below average, and were fourth in time in possession allowed at 39.4 per cent per game. Geelong conceded 100 points twice (the fewest in the league) and were never blown out.
There are few questions to be answered here – although the potential retirement of Corey Enright and (maybe) Tom Lonergan could force the Cats into some action. Even then, Chris Scott and company seem to hold some faith that Tom Ruggles can be a good mid-sized defender (just don’t give him the ball), while Jed Bews can play a bit in the same mould.
Geelong will also get Jackson Thurlow back next season, who will add attacking flare from half back that has been provided mostly by Enright this season. He’s as good as a new trade.
As for talls, Jake Kolodjashnij is developing nicely, and looms as a permanent replacement for Lonergan. Harry Taylor is evolving into a full back as his career progresses, and Lachie Henderson is much better player than the one who was put to the sword over the weekend.
This looms as an area of the ground that the Cats can afford to let be for now. Some extra depth would be nice, and they will need to see continued improvement from Ruggles, Bews and Kolodjashnij to remain at their peak. A free agent addition wouldn’t go astray – and there are going to be plenty of defenders on the market this season – but it’s unlikely to yield much.
Now comes the cream
The Cats are sorted for ruckmen. They’re reportedly set to lose Nathan Vardy after the 24-year-old fell well down the pecking order in 2016. Mitch Clarke’s future remains clouded, but even if they lose that pair the Cats have 2.5 ruckmen on their full list, and two more on their rookie list.
Instead, this coming player exchange period represents a chance for the Cats to fill their holes up forward and through the middle of the ground.
There has been talk in recent days that Geelong may look to build a “Big Three” – Dangerfield, Selwood, and Player X. Inappropriate NBA references aside, it does feel like a prudent course of action.
Daniel Wells seems to be the name linked most frequently from the credible sources. Wells would slot in perfectly alongside Dangerfield and Selwood, adding a touch of outside class and pace to the more heavy hitting pairing. He’s hardly a slouch at the contest, either. Adding Wells would be a risk given his injury history, and would likely slap a used by date sticker on the mascot’s forehead, but as the Cats showed in last year’s off season, being young is over-rated.
Brisbane’s Pearce Hanley’s name has also come up far too frequently for the smoke to be coming from a fire started by a journalist. Hanley’s best season was 2014, where he averaged 25 touches as a hybrid half back-inside midfielder, using a quick first step to create separation between he and his opponents. I would imagine he’ll stay at the Lions, but the Cats would do well to ask a question or two.
The vultures are circling Richmond, and Brett Deledio – slam dunk proposition wherever he would care to play – would suit Geelong just nicely. I trust I don’t have to explain why. Again, good luck prising him away, but it’s fun to think about these things.
Adding a player or two of this calibre would allow Josh Caddy to play as a permanent forward, a role he seemed to enjoy in the fits and starts he was afforded in the latter part of the season. Mitch Duncan can be freed to roam the half forward line as a Deledio-lite type, and Jimmy Bartel can help give more time to Lincoln McCarthy to develop.
There’s plenty of bargain options in the delisted free agent bin, too.
Melbourne de-listed veteran Jack Grimes yesterday – if healthy he’d give Scott Selwood a run for his money. Nick Dal Santo has another year or two left in him, and is precisely the kind of player the Cats are searching for. If they can get him right, Anthony Morabito is also a good fit.
They’re the potential game changers; there’s likely to be value lurking in the delisted pool in the months ahead. When you consider the Cats went into the preliminary final with Josh Cowan and Sam Menegola in their midfield, there’s potential upside. Menegola has been an excellent pick-up, but looms as a 22nd-man type of player for a premiership side.
Complicating matters is the fact the Cats are fresh out of picks, or more specifically, the ability to freely leverage their picks. Geelong traded out of the first round in both 2015 and 2016, meaning their ability to leverage their 2017 first rounder (currently 16th, but with academy selections that’ll drift closer to 20) is more limited. Trading it would mean they must then go to both the 2018 and 2019 drafts and use a first round pick, as it’s difficult to foresee a scenario where they’re able to both bring in a high-quality player and either retain their first round pick or move up in the order.
There are scant tradeable players on the list, too. Steven Motlop’s name has been floated, which is interested given an oft-cited criticism of the Cats is they lack outside pace – he is arguably the only non-Dangerfield with speed to burn. The aforementioned Vardy trade could yield a pick, but once again, it’s unlikely to move the needle for a club that is shopping a highly rated talent.
Shane Kersten ended the year in and out of the team, after a solid patch of football to start the season. His name had been firmly linked with Fremantle earlier in the year – the Dockers are hungry for forward line talent, but they aren’t quite ready to lick the moss off of rocks. There are plenty of youngsters that still need some incubation, but offloading them risks tipping an already precariously placed list over the edge in a year or two.
It means the Cats are in as delicate a position as they were a year ago, in their pursuit of Dangerfield, Smith, Henderson and Selwood. With nary a trade asset to spare, the Cats will most certainly be active in the free agent market, to the extent they can afford.
This year, Geelong proved Cats have more than nine lives. An 11th is almost assured, because of the singular talents of Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood, and a finely crafted defence that has proven to be up to stopping the best.
But to take the next step with a sense of surety, the Cats must double down on their bold list management strategy in a fortnight’s time.
rod
Guest
8 days ago Geelong were flag favourites, now they are doomed?
Ryan Buckland
Expert
For what it's worth, I had their draw as ranked 15th in terms of difficulty this year - around 41 points more difficult than the hypothetical "perfectly even" draw. It works out for them to be about a 4 percentage point boost to their percentage, taking them down to fourth (ahead of West Coast). The other thing to consider is who they lost to this year: Carlton, St Kilda and Collingwood. They would have felt pretty confident of winning all of those games coming into the year. What I guess I'm saying is there's swings and roundabouts.
Greg
Guest
Does possession need to be maintained for metres to be "gained"? If not it's pretty useless. If you kick 50m to an opponent and he marks and kicks 50m back, have you really gained anything at all? Also, measuring metres gained by a single player has questionable utility. I'd be more interested if a player had won possession and commenced a possession chain resulting in a large territorial gain. Who cares who gains the metres, it's creating the chance to gain them at all that is important.
Giovanni Torre
Guest
Cats only beat the Dons by an average of 45 points. The beat West Coast and Port (in Adelaide) by 48, the Dogs by 54 and Hawthorn & North by 30 and 31.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
But the crazy good percentage was on the back of the 3rd or 4th easiest draw (depending on the methodology) which included playing the Bombers and Brisbane twice (Adelaide increased their % by about 10% on the back of the singles games against those 2 teams). 2017 will give them a much harder draw, the loss of an All Australian backman - one of the reasons for their miserly defense. Just those 2 factors alone will cost them 2-3 games and about 10-15% which puts them in the 5-12 finish on the ladder. With Dangerwood, the Cats should double down to get that flag.
the all rounder
Roar Pro
From watching their games it seems that the areas letting Geelong down are a lack of collective defensive pressure from their forwards and a lack of a leg speed in transitioning the ball out of defence. Whilst I was very impressed by Lincoln McCarthy (who could almost be regarded as a first year player), I don't recall Motlop, Kersten, Menzel or Lang making a lot of tackles. Jimmy Bartel seemed to have a better crack as an elder statesman. Cory Gregson averaged 4.5 tackles a game this season, so I'd be getting him back in the team. My second point is less of a concern as during the majority of our games our kicking out of defence seemed to work pretty well. However, when opposed to teams who would drop a spare man behind the ball and negate long kicks forward, we seem to really struggle in transition to offence - who is breaking the line and carrying through the middle part of the ground? So to me it seems that the areas in which we need to improve personnel are forwards who can contribute going both ways (how impressive has Clay Smith been???) and defenders (or wingmen) who can provide a bit of leg speed. In terms of improving what we already have, I think Jed Bews is under-rated and looks like he could develop further as a rebounding threat. The return of Thurlow may also be helpful in this regard. In terms of forwards, hopefully Gregson and Lang can continue to improve their defensive pressure as their aerobic capacity increases. However, ideally, we might be able to do an old school player swap where we address one of our needs without losing a player who is genuinely key to our structure. The question is, then, who is available that addresses either of these needs? I'm not sure there are many players unfortunately. Chris Mayne provides good defensive pressure, but seems to have lost the ability to kick multiple goals. Mayne for Kersten? Could Boomer provide some dash on the wing and also chip in with a couple of goals? Will Hoskin-Elliott? In terms of defensive rebound we could possibly try David Mackay if he was delisted? Rebounding defenders are very much in demand, so there isn't really anyone who is actually that good who will be available. In saying that, Dangerfield and Selwood generally covered up all our problems pretty well. However, if we want more midfield depth via trading I'd be looking at either Wells or Michael Barlow. I don't know what Ross is thinking there.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I agree with you - assuming you weren't accusing me of going all doom and gloom - you don't win 17 games with a crazy good percentage by fluking things. Having said that, there's holes in the list that were papered over by Dangerfield's ridiculous season and the defensive structures. They'll almost certainly be good again next year, but the competition is going to be so even that you can't afford to sit still these days. Hawthorn found that out the hard way in the end.
Bobby
Guest
The lack of synergy told this year, I say trade Vardy and Kersten for picks, low as they might be, cut some dead wood and go again next year. We'll be alright
James
Guest
I think how Geelong will approach this trade period, will give us a huge insight into how they rate their playing list. Duncan, Caddy, Blicavs, Guthrie, Lang, Cockatoo, Cowan, Menegola, Gregson Motlop, McCarthy, Bews, Ruggles. These players are the most important players at Geelong in terms of where this team will go. If some or all take the next step, Geelong is a genuine premiership chance in 2017, if they stagnate, they'll be making up the 8 again. So with whispers of Geelong trading / free agenting for Hanley, Wells, or Deledio etc, they aren't expecting that development to come from within for a premiership tilt.
Hoody
Guest
Tend to agree with most of reuster75's comments, but also believe there has been a mass overreaction from the media about the Cats going forward. Would you normally expect this about a team that went from tenth on the ladder to 2nd in a single season? Half of the team had their first season together and most pundits believed that it would take some time to develop some synergy. Disappointing getting smashed in a prelim but in hindsight, a positive season overall. We beat every other team in the eight, bar Sydney. Who else done that? Now I'm not over keen in getting into the debate about the effect of byes, but the fact remains that Sydney smashed us in one brilliant quarter of football when we were coming off a bye. Not once but twice. Outside of that we were better than most anybody, but apparently it is time to throw out the baby and the bathwater. The same experts that are preaching our impending doom don't have the best of records when predicting the Cats results of late, so I don't see why their own form would improve anytime soon.Maybe I'm a glass half-full type of guy but I just can't understand all the gloom.
reuster75
Guest
Comment is awaiting moderation so I will repost Interesting article Ryan, it’s a very fine line we need to walk between doubling down but not selling the farm and having a massive free fall with no safety net. Of the players you mentioned the only one I wouldn’t immediately jump at is Hanley as he seems to me he’d fail the old Swans test of ‘no tools’ which Geelong has as well. I feel our best course of action is to take a step back for a year by trading out some mid-range players (smedts, vardy, horlin-smith, murdoch, lang, kersten etc.) for any pick we can get and really pump some development into younger players such as cockatoo, menegola, gregson, thurlow (hoping he can be like wojo and still retain his pace after knee injury) and concentrate on getting the old Geelong ball movement back as we’ve seen this year ball movement is key (which we did for 1st half of year then for some reason game plan changed). I would keep motlop for now and really out the heat on him after such a bad year – I would start him in VFL even if he has brilliant preseason. If he gets back to old form then he has currency for trading in 2017 off-season when some players such as deledio might be easier to get (as long as hardwick is in charge tigers will remain a rabble). This year had a lot of similarities with 1997 when we had a real chance to win a very even competition but went out in straight sets (albeit the Crows had some extra help that year in the form of blind field and goal umpires). We really dropped away after that and just 2 years later we lost captain and coach and took until 2004 before we came good again. I have complete trust in Stephen Wells to make the right calls but one step back for two steps forward seems the most prudent choice.
Seano
Guest
The bottom left quarter on the danger zone chart could be called the "Stanton Sector" as he has the least meters gained and lease clearances in the history of the AFL. Though he is number 1 in turnovers.
Brian
Guest
Geelong would be wrong to falsely believe they were close to the flag. In terms of current performance and youthful prospects they are miles behind WB, GWS & Sydney. Their defence relied all season on denying territory which worked fine at Skilled, AO and Subiaco. But sure enough at the MCG there was too much space to fill. That's why Essendon ran them close for 3 quarters, Collingwood beat them, Richmond got to within 4 during their freefall, Hawks lost by a kick and Sydney had them sewn up by quarter time. If they come with that game plan next year they will be disappointed that the finals are at the MCG again. Multiple games at Kardinia will get them into the 8 next year but to go beyond more speed and better disposal skills are required and then you have to hope Danger keeps up his amazing performances, impossible to think he would exceed his 2016 benchmark. Getting another good midfielder to do the job Duncan and Caddy aren't doing would obviously help. They could even challenge next year if Duncan, Caddy or Horlin-Smith fulfill their potential but otherwise again their midfield depth will be found to be shallow. The problem is I just don't know who they would give up in trading. Any broker will tell you to sell high and buy low, so if I was holding the stock of Motlop now I would be holding on.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
They're all Jacks to me. Sure do, I'll amend. Cheers.
I hate pies
Guest
You mean Jack Grimes don't you, not Jack Trengove?
Paul D
Roar Guru
At least you don't have to worry about getting anymore nasty necromancer type comments on that old 'pump the brakes on geelong' article you wrote 6 months ago. Hanley would go well at Geelong however I daresay if they traded Motlop out for Hanley a lot of people would be scratching their heads. A young inconsistent player with a bad attitude traded for a slightly older inconsistent player with a bad attitude. I daresay Hanley would struggle with the work ethic at Geelong too. Interesting times for them, a bit like North they are good but not good enough. So which way do they go?
David C
Guest
Richmond would only let Delidio go for a high price, too high for Geelong I think. Maybe to GC for Prestia or GWS for high draft picks. Same as regards to Hanley. Brisbane would surely want more than Geelong could offer. Geelong, like Collingwood, don't have much to trade with this year having sold the farm last year.
DH
Guest
Need a new forwardline coach. I don't think there's a forward on their coaching panel at all. They need to sort out converting F50 entries into scores. Some people point out the quality of entries, but anyone who has seen Geelong live knows they don't lead, ever. They point to a small block of space and hope a person running at 100 miles an hour can take the heat off the kick and ease it into a 2x2m square. Whatever West Coast is doing up forward, Geelong need to copy.