There’s never any hard and fast rule about team selections. One man’s views on form can just as easily mirror the next guy’s views on favouritism and protected species.
It can never be black and white, and there’s never, ever full agreement.
But there will always be debate, and debate around Wallabies selection is a daily occurrence.
This week will be no different, with the Wallabies losing to South Africa in Pretoria in a performance that promised so much early, yet delivered so little in the end.
All the wash-up from Springboks vs Wallabies:
» SPIRO: Wallabies lost to back-to-the-future Boks
» LORD: Steyn’s boot sinks wasteful Wallabies
» Who should replace Sean McMahon?
» Five talking points
» What changes should the Wallabies make for Argentina?
On reflection, it was an 80-minute illustration of the Wallabies’ 2016 form.
There were many reasons the Wallabies lost this game. Israel Folau’s performance was not primary among that long list.
But Folau’s disappointing performance at Loftus comes in a position where there are other quality options available.
And if the precedent Michael Cheika has set for himself with his lock and blindside selections in 2016 truly means anything, he’ll make the tough call on Folau.
So far in 2016, Cheika has at different points dropped Rob Simmons, Sam Carter, Kane Douglas, Scott Fardy and Will Skelton, all on the basis of form and spoke publicly of the decisions.
He’s actually dropped Simmons twice this season, the first time clarifying that it was actually form and not a back injury that led to his omission from the second Test team against England in June.
“Any player that is left out is not happy, obviously,” Cheika said of the Simmons decision at the time.
“But that’s the challenge for him to improve and get his spot back, like all players who are left out of the team. That’s the nature of rugby and has been for ever. Some guys get picked and it’s how you react accordingly.”
When he dropped Fardy to the bench for the second Bledisloe Test, and then dropped him completely for the next match against South Africa in Brisbane, he raised the topic of competition within the squad.
“As you can see, our team’s changing, and what we’ve always said we’d do is bring guys in from underneath, bring a few blokes back, squeeze from the top and put the competition into the middle tier. I’ve worked off that formula before and that’s what we’re trying to do now,” Cheika said.
“At the end of the day that competition for places is the best driver for performance.”
It was a similar story when Douglas was left out, which coincidentally led to a recall for Simmons.
“Everyone is crying about us having no depth so we are taking steps to create some. There’s a challenge from the younger brigade but we also want our experienced guys to improve their games,” Cheika explained.
“More competition equals more depth.”
When Cheika dropped Fardy, he made reference to the Simmons decision, and when he dropped Douglas he continued that logic.
“If that standard applied to Scott Fardy, it’s got to apply to Kane and it’s up to him to take it from here.”
So it will make discussions around the selection table in London this week interesting.
You don’t have to look at the stats sheet to know that Folau was outpointed by pretty much every Wallabies back on the field in Pretoria.
Folau’s ten minutes in the sin bin – for an infringement he’s developed a bit of form in over the last 18 months or so – allowed Dane Haylett-Petty to show how good an option he’d be when wearing the no.15 jersey.
In the second half, it was noticeable that the ‘Boks actually kicked straight to Folau when he was back in place at fullback, for the simple reason that they didn’t really feel threatened by him. If Folau kicked back to them, he never turned them around, and if he ran it back, he was well contained.
Folau’s overall strike rate as an international player is pretty handy; a try every two or three games. But after scoring 17 of his 20 Test tries in his first 26 matches, he’s only scored three since in the last two seasons.
Right at the moment, he’s just not the threat he once was, and you have to wonder if this sometimes forward-sometimes back hybrid 13/15 game he’s playing is affecting him.
Cheika speaks of wanting to re-light the fire in bellies by dropping players. He talks about how he’s not afraid to use the NRC for dropped Wallabies to find form; Simmons, Fardy, and Skelton, as well as Ben McCalman have all been told to find form there.
You have to wonder if that will now apply to Folau, too.
I don’t for a minute think Folau will be dropped back to the NRC, but my point stands.
Cheika has a ready-made replacement at fullback ready to go and already showing some pretty decent form now. And with Sefanaia Naivalu, Henry Speight, and Luke Morahan waiting in the wings, there’s no shortage of options there either.
Moving Folau to the right wing is also an obvious alternative, but I’m not sure that would send as strong a message as leaving him out for a Test or two would.
Folau has never been dropped since switching to rugby, but even Cheika has spoken this season of the importance of no-one taking Wallabies selection for granted.
“The minute someone feels like he is guaranteed selection, he is never going to perform,” Cheika said back in June, when asked if Simmons’ axing meant no-one was safe.
This isn’t about finding a scapegoat.
There’s no argument about Folau’s immense talent, nor is this about whether he is or isn’t a world-class player.
Regardless of where you think he fits in such subjective measures, even the best players in the game go through form slumps.
Folau would know he’s a long way from his best currently. There’s no shame in Cheika admitting it.(Click to Tweet)
Bob East
Guest
From a die hard All Black supporter, thank god Folau is not playing in the centres, it be would be like playing against Ma'a Nonu.
RobC
Roar Guru
So squirrel, where is "Jerevi"? Scored a couple of tries, 100+ meters, 7 defenders beaten, 6 clean breaks. 4 passes, two of them were Dwyer days flick-ons with defenders on him. One cutout for his winger to create space Many points scored by both Tahs and non-Tahs. Where was Izzy in all this? And where exactly in the anti-Tahs bias?
Rory
Guest
Why are we talking about dropping Folau when QC was WOEFUL last week in Pretoria? Bad passes, bad options, etc. Agreed, Izzy not spectacular at the moment, but fantastically safe under the high ball. We need a back 3 who are all capable of kicking. That is hurting the Wallabies. The opposition know they are going to win every kicking contest. So maybe hide Izzy's kicking inadequacies at 13, and have 11, 14 & 15 who have the right skills.
Dave from Mt Druitt
Guest
The question is "Was Folau really special or just another player hyped up by the media". While he may have played well he never done anything other than what was expected. Now opposition teams have combated his abilities he provides little in attack and they exploit his weaknesses in defence. Perhaps he is not a fullback that some persons including former players have been saying all along.
John
Guest
"Haylett-Petty has been in great form"...he has missed 1000 tackles since debuting for the Wallabies only a few months ago! People losing interest in rugby union is not irrelevant, it is a direct result of the average skillset of our players and subsequent results. Spare me the hyperbole.
Nigel
Guest
Things change.....amazing u can't work that out......form and that's Cheikas big thing and Folau needs a positional change of sit him on the bench like all the other humans!!! He is not that good!!!
Nigel
Guest
He won't this non coach plays favourites!!! If he is concistant Folau should be on the bench or give him a complete rest v Pumas but v ABs put him on the wing !!!!
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Yet Samu Kerevi is playing better than Folau in general play and Cooper better than Foley was...
Krash
Guest
You not dumb enough to read click bait and then respond half a dozen times PeterK...your to smart to do that.
jeznez
Roar Guru
CUW, completely agree I'd like players to be put in positions they'll be considered in for the Wallabies and left to develop there. And the sooner Hodge settle the better in my mind. I was just saying I hadn't seen his games in play making positions so couldn't offer an opinion myself on whether he could or should play there. On the other hand I have seen plenty of Lopeti at 8 and think he is worthy of a shot. Would have preferred he'd spent the last two years playing the position instead of learning a new one but as you say we have a lot of switching around going on in Aussie rugby.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Paul, I'd see Cooper taking over the defensive hooker spot where Foley is currently standing.
Jesse langley
Guest
He isn't consistent, that's the problem!
Michael
Roar Rookie
But Cheika arguably hasn't been benching players for poor form. Foley, Moore and Mumm are all playing poorly yet not being benched. Fardy, Simmons and others have been dropped for one match. Did their form suddenly improve in one game? Is Simmons better now than he was a month ago? I don't think so. I think it was more just tinkering...or rearranging chairs on the titanic.
Squirrel
Guest
TWAS isn't your rugby acadies meant to produce competition. Where are they. Izzy is still the best by far and that's saying something. He and Hodge should be the centres. When is qc going to be criticized. We should just have a qld backline as they performed so well in super rugby and qc was a Toulon gun.
Mick Harrold
Roar Rookie
Yes we do have the depth to drop him. It's that kind of protectionist thinking that is hurting us. Haylet Petty to FB. He is the form FB right now. For wing, you have Niavalu, Kellaway, Shipperley, Speight, Coleman, Morahan. None of these are awesome, but all are good. And we all know that Wings are just there to run straight, score tries and style their hair anyway :) But seriously, we can drop Folau right now. At his best, he is world class and better than all the above names. But he isn't there right now. Dropping him would only be good for him long term. Folau came in and performed very well. I know people say he has been hyped up by the media (and he was), but it was deserving at the time. Unfortunately the opposition has caught up with him and he hasn't changed enough. He still thinks that if he trains and practices hard that the games will come to him. They won't. He needs to evolve as a player. The 20yr old McCaw was nothing like the 30yr old McCaw. He adapted. Izzy need to follow suit. However, Izzy does have the skills to do it and become a powerhouse again. He is a rare talent.
RobC
Roar Guru
Gday Train. I did frame analysis on this and all the other TOs in the redzone. Here's what I observed: - Simmo is crouched ready for a pass and drive/pick - Sanchez passes to Simmos upper shoulder, so he has to stand up and catch - Mohoje (who starts from an offside position) hammers him upright and drives him back - Flops on Simmo doesnt roll away - Coleman overruns, Mumm makes it to the ruck - The ball is available for Simmo to cycle, despite the flopping Oupa - Hoops goes over Oupa, over Simmo and over the ball to protect the cycle - Adriaaaan and PSTD approach - Adriaaaaaan leans on Hoops, AdriaaaAaaAan's hands on the pill (!!??!!) - Sanchez arrives whilst... - Hoops is pushed back like a barstool on wheels - Mumm arrives and engages PSTD - PSTD neck grabs Hoops - Hoops is swatted away like a gnat - Oupa gets up and grabs Hoops legs, who was already swatted as AdriaaaAanaaaAaan already has the ball
Kaz
Guest
Is this author the same Brett McKay that wrote an article earlier in the year about Folau's wonderful form in this year's Super competition? Brett...you even highlighted that Folau was the top try scorer in Super 2016...a statement I replied to saying wooopeeeedoooo
CUW
Guest
if only there was a stat on how much the auzzy 2nd rowers got driven back by the saffers :) they would have dome more meters backwards than forwards
CUW
Guest
@ Carlos the Argie No , cheika shud have put folau at 13 , when he dropped kuridrani. that would have been acceptable , becoz tk was off form. now having replaced him with kerevi , who has played well for a rookie , there is no reason to drop him. it will also make kerevi loose confidence. the time for experiment passed , just like getting a new skipper passed when he did not do it after the loss to england.
jameswm
Roar Guru
Ala'alatoa and Holmes are both better than those reserve props. IN fact Tony Smith is better than Slipper the way Slipper p layed last week.