Some people will say New Zealand have got Australia right where they want them going into the Four Nations final. I’m not joining that group.
Sure, we’ve seen it before. The Kiwis make the final of a tournament after looking inferior to the Aussies along the way and then go out and beat them. The 2008 World Cup is a prime example.
To be fair to New Zealand, they’ve also shown they can dominate a tournament over Australia from start to finish, as they did in the 2014 Four Nations.
You could make the point the Aussies were missing a lot of star players through injury in 2014, which they were. But they weren’t in 2008, so what was the excuse then?
There is always at least a hint of danger from the Kiwis – particularly in tournaments, where they get the chance to build up over several weeks of competition.
They need that against an Australian team that is naturally more in tune to meet the challenge of the biggest clashes because they have the advantage of playing a three-game State of Origin series mid-season.
The Aussies not only become battle hardened in the ferocious Origin arena, they also get the chance to build combinations that are then transferred to the international stage.
Seriously, how big an advantage is it to Australia that their spine of fullback Darius Boyd, five-eighth Johnathan Thurston, halfback Cooper Cronk and hooker Cameron Smith is also the Queensland spine?
It’s huge.
But, given even luck to the two teams, I can’t see any circumstances in which the Kiwis can win the game at Anfield in the early hours of Monday, our time.
I think Australia would have to get into extraordinary injury difficulty, or have a player sent off a long way short of fulltime, for the Kiwis to win.
The Aussies have taken a different tack in this tournament, under Mal Meninga as coach.
They haven’t made a point of trying to be absolutely dominant from the start. They have built up to the final and are poised to produce their best performance of the tournament in it.
New Zealand have stumbled into the final. Their 18-18 draw with Scotland last weekend was embarrassing to them.
Had Scotland managed to win, the Kiwis wouldn’t even be in the final. They would have finished on two points, the same as England, and the Poms would have made the final based on their superior points for-and-against differential.
Meninga rested Cronk from the game against the Kiwis in week two of the tournament, when Australia won 14-8.
New Zealand five-eighth Thomas Leuluai sustained a broken jaw against Scotland and won’t play in the final.
New Zealand coach David Kidwell told a media conference this week that he was yet to decide who would play five-eighth.
“Short answer, no,” he said. “We’ve got a couple of options and a couple of training sessions to decide, but whoever comes in there, we’ll have full confidence that they’ll do the job.”
I’d be stunned if Kidwell put the vastly inexperienced Te Maire Martin at five-eighth. Surely he will switch second-rower Tohu Harris to that position.
Kidwell is only new to the New Zealand job, but he must already be at risk of losing it based on the disappointing performances of the Kiwis in the Test against Australia in Perth in October and overall in this tournament.
If he played Martin and the youngster came undone in a heavy defeat, his tenure as coach could be over there and then. Harris appeals as the much less risky option and the far more sensible one.
Finally, you can’t write about the final without mentioning New Zealand halfback Shaun Johnson.
He’s a great player on his day, but while he might have some break-out moments this is not going to be a game in which he tears the Aussies apart.
Not this Australian team. They’ll restrict him enough and take the Four Nations trophy back.
Republican
Guest
.....whatever the selection, NZ are ready to take this one. They will reaffirm their world number one ranking in a sport that is only niche in NZ. Conversely when the All Blacks v us the there is never any doubt who will win its only a matter of how humiliating the final result. No excuse Kangaroos while a win by a slim margin is really not a win at all v NZ in my humble opinion.
Republican
Guest
.....to be sure Jacko, I think it will be a convincing win to NZ myself.
Fellow Kool Aid Drinker
Guest
I wish I could be as divorced from reality as you are. I highly professional team will work together more effectively than a team riding on passion. You only need to remember Germany vs Argentina final in the Football world cup to see what happens when a skilled professional team goes up against a group who expected to win because they had the stars and the passion
Raugeee
Guest
I respect Meninga as a coach so I guess he must see something in Aaron Woods.He does get, what seems a high number of tackles in, but take a close look at how he goes about it. He is always part of a three man tackle and he flounces around like a big pillow and then lays over the top after all the hard work is done. He is a joke at rep level and his record proves it. 11 SOO for 4 wins? At Test level he was the starting prop for 3 games in a row against NZ which the Kangaroos lost. He isn't there for the ANZAC Test & the Perth Test. Hello - Australia put on 42 - 6 in those 2 games. He is back this tournament and Kangaroos cling on to a 6 point win v NZ. Woods' ill discipline cost 3 penalties! If NZ win tomorrow Woods' questionable selection will be a huge part of it. The other head scratcher is Dugan's continued selection. He was OK v England and did a lot of hard yards coming off the line. Still one would think Justin O'Niel would be a much better option. Mal's proven himself a great Rep coach. I just hope he's made the right decisions here.
Jacko
Guest
No Arrogance there at all Greg. Already claiming the win eh. or have you spoken to the ref? Cancel the game as result already known. NZ always get to within a couple of metres of the line before being held out by Aus so with the field being shorter they should be 2 metre over the line by then. lol
Republican
Guest
.....I agree dan.
dan
Guest
greg Pritchard u are just as bad as your oz commentators gould and sterling .you guys talk about how good the kangaroos r and just need to turn up at the field that's y its a pleasure to watch the kiwis stick it to use at the end of the day its about who want it more after 80 min watch out for the underdog you were lucky last time with your kicks 2 tries each
Jacko
Guest
I find it pathetic that england cant provide a field that is the standard size. Why are they playing this game on a small pitch? I hope that at least the ref wont be an Aussie.
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
Uhm, okay.
The eye
Guest
last game Gal played for Aust.(Anzac) he picked up the man of the match..Klemmer and Sam are good players,but humorous to rank them in the same stratosphere as Gal..
Tripehound
Guest
It's absolutely lashing down at present and in for the day, same forecast for all day tomorrow, rain all day Saturday and rain forecast from early Sunday morning until late afternoon with a maximum of 4'c come kick off. The shorter pitch combined with the conditions will turn the final into a war of attrition amongst the forwards so it's all about the team that can control the ball best and get their kicking radar right, pretty much like all other test matches then.
Rob
Guest
Much better team now without Gallen.
GD66
Guest
Historically they are a chance but in Perth JWH and Blair exhibited appalling discipline in their desire to lay high shots on Thurston and co, unless they rein that behaviour in and concentrate on executing properly they can forget it. And hey, how about completing a few more sets instead of hail-mary passes into touch ?
Republican
Guest
........yes they have underperformed but I think they will click this weekend. The potential they harness in their forwards puts them ahead of ours in my opinion but I agree that this has not been the reality more recently.
Republican
Guest
....you require both while in this the professional era the former is under valued. You can have a team full of the best and most consumate professionals who don't come together as one, despite a professional work ethic that is dictated by the almighty dollar. What this can result in is an abject lack of passion, nationalism, whatever you want to call it on the part of the 'team' who only stand for individualism and who play as individuals, which is what we are seeing more and more from our very professional but desensitised Australian sporting teams.
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
The shorter field will favour the team who can control the momentum. Pretty much like it always does.
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
I doubt it. Nationalism or pride or passion or whatever you want to call it can only take you so far. Professionalism is more likely to be the key.
Jeffrey Dun
Roar Rookie
"The smaller pitch will also favour them as the game will degenerate to a contest in the forwards, an area they are most definitely superior in." Upon what do you base the observation about the forwards on Republican? Did you watch the last two tests against the Kangaroos? I would have agreed with you before the match in Perth, but contrary to my expectations the Kangaroo forwards got on top of the Kiwis and they did so again the 4 nations match. The Kiwi pack certainly didn't dominate the England pack either. Without a dominant pack, and good front-foot ball, the Kiwi backs lack the polish to beat Australia. It all comes down to how the Kiwi forwards perform, and based on what we have seen so far, they are going to struggle.
peter
Guest
Western bulldogs from 7th in finals and 2 away games in premlims that they rate up there 2
Republican
Guest
.....NZ'ers are far more nationalistic than we are - fact and especially V us so passion will be a defining factor in this contest.