Just two sleeps to go now until the 2016 AFL Draft! Today I’m releasing the final version of my phantom draft, covering the top 25 picks and also looking at who might be in the mix for those clubs that don’t feature in the top 25.
Pick 1: Essendon Bombers – Hugh McCluggage
185cm, 75kg
It’s rare that there’s genuine speculation over this pick, but there’s yet to be any set-in-stone indication from the rumour mill about whether or Essendon will settle on goal-kicking midfielder McCluggage or speedy half-back Andrew McGrath – with a bid on Greater Western Sydney academy prospect Will Setterfield the dark horse.
I’m still tipping McCluggage, but don’t be surprised if Essendon throw the competition a curveball on Friday night.
Pick 2: GWS Giants – Andrew McGrath
179cm, 75kg
If the Bombers go with McCluggage, McGrath is a no-brainer for the Giants here. They’re very keen on him.
Pick 3: Gold Coast Suns – Jack Bowes (matching bid from Brisbane)
187cm, 78kg
A bid on a highly rated Queensland prospect could be a logical move for Brisbane, but there’s no question that Gold Coast will match.
Pick 4: Brisbane Lions – Ben Ainsworth
179cm, 74kg
Brisbane have been linked to Ainsworth consistently over the past few weeks and he seems a near certainty to be a Lion in 2017.
Pick 5: Carlton Blues – Sam Petrevski-Seton
181cm, 76kg
There are a number of different ways Carlton could go at this pick, but my gut feel is that their preference will be classy, speedy Sam.
Pick 6: Gold Coast Suns – Tim Taranto
186cm, 82kg
A quality midfielder with all-round game, Taranto looks like a logical choice for the Suns.
Pick 7: Fremantle Dockers – Griffin Logue
193cm, 92kg
I had the Dockers going with ruckman Tim English in previous weeks but the more I think on it, the more Logue – a home-grown prospect who would be a great addition to their backline – seems a great choice for Freo.
Pick 8: GWS Giants – Will Setterfield (matching bid from Gold Coast)
190cm, 80kg
A bid for Setterfield presumably comes somewhere in the top ten, and the Giants will certainly match (so long as it’s not Essendon at pick No.1).
Pick 9: Gold Coast Suns – Jack Scrimshaw
193cm, 80kg
Scrimshaw has been linked to the Suns for a while and seems a good chance to arrive there.
Pick 10: Sydney Swans – Will Hayward
186cm, 76kg
Potentially the big bolter of the draft, Hayward is an exciting medium forward who may eventually move into the midfield. He has been invited to the draft, which suggests a club with a top ten pick is looking at him very closely – Sydney, Gold Coast, even Carlton could take the punt.
Pick 11: Gold Coast Suns – Tim English
203cm, 86kg
If the Dockers opt not to select English earlier then I’d say the Suns will take a close look at him here. Tom Nicholls is really their only other developing ruck, so adding a talent like English could be attractive.
Pick 12: North Melbourne Kangaroos – Oliver Florent
183cm, 74kg
The Roos might be tempted by some players like Jy Simpkin or Will Brodie here, but Florent arguably fits their needs better than anyone else left on the board at this point.
Pick 13: West Coast Eagles – Jy Simpkin
181cm, 71kg
A potential top ten pick before his broken leg – and he could still land there – Simpkin would add a dash of flavour to the somewhat vanilla West Coast midfield.
Pick 14: Adelaide Crows – Will Brodie
189cm, 82kg
I’ve had Brodie marked as a slider since my first edition and in this release he has sunk just a little further. A dominant inside midfielder, he could be a great replacement for Scott Thompson.
Pick 15: Port Adelaide Power – Jarrod Berry
191cm, 80kg
A big body who is renowned for his leadership ability and athleticism, Berry could have a huge impact for Port.
Pick 16: GWS Giants – Harry Perryman (matching bid from Brisbane)
184cm, 75kg
A smart defender, the Lions could definitely be tempted to make a big for Perryman – but so long as they don’t lose any draft picks regarding the Lachie Whitfield affair, GWS will certainly match.
Pick 17: Brisbane Lions – Alex Witherden
184cm, 78kg
A quality half-back play-maker, Witherden has been repeatedly linked with the Lions in the lead-up to the draft.
Pick 18: Port Adelaide Power – Todd Marshall
198cm, 87kg
Port have been linked a bit to Marshall as they look to add some more talent to their forward line. He still needs some development but could be a good eventual replacement for Justin Westhoff.
Pick 19: Western Bulldogs – Jordan Gallucci
183cm, 75kg
Gallucci is still something of a raw talent but has elite speed, a quality that the Bulldogs love. After winning the flag, they’ve got license to take someone here who will need a little more development than others.
Pick 20: Sydney Swans – Luke Ryan
185cm, 87kg
The Swans have still never really found a replacement for Nick Malceski, but mature-age half-back Luke Ryan could be just that. The Swans have been linked to him and picking him up could release Callum Mills to become more of a midfielder next year.
Pick 21: Essendon Bombers – Josh Battle
192cm, 90kg
Essendon are on the lookout for another tall forward and Battle could be the perfect selection. He’s probably not a No.1 forward but that’s okay, he can be a second or even third banana to Joe Daniher.
Pick 22: Brisbane Lions – Daniel Venables
186cm, 81kg
A best available pick for the Lions here, if Venables slides this late then the powerful midfielder is a great choice.
Pick 23: Brisbane Lions – Josh Rotham
192cm, 79kg
A third tall defender with some rebounding ability, Rotham could be an excellent addition to the Lions’ defensive team.
Pick 24: St Kilda Saints – Shai Bolton
177cm, 67kg
A little bit more speed and x-factor would be great to have at the Saints, Bolton brings that but needs to do it more consistently.
Pick 25: Geelong Cats – Sam Powell-Pepper
186cm, 83kg
A fan favourite, Powell-Pepper has a lot of great qualities – speed, physicality, and x-factor. The only concern is that his kicking needs some improvement.
And for those clubs who don’t feature in my top 25…
Richmond Tigers
First pick: 27
Small defender Cedric Cox could be someone that the Tigers look at closely as someone who could work with Bachar Houli as a pacy rebounder from half-back, perhaps filling the role that Chris Yarran was once intended to. Alternatively, a second-tall type like Patrick Kerr as a replacement for Tyrone Vickery could be of interest.
Collingwood Magpies
First pick: 28
The Magpies could bid on GWS academy player Isaac Cumming, or someone like Jordan Ridley could appeal if available. Both would add a quality kick to the Collingwood backline.
Hawthorn Hawks
First pick: 81
It’s a complete toss-up as to who will be available here but someone like exciting forward/midfielder Patrick Lipinski could appeal to the Hawks if he hasn’t already been snapped up.
That’s the final edition of my phantom draft, folks – things can change very rapidly in the lead-up to the draft of course, and there’s a great deal of uncertainty this year.
Join me on Friday for a live blog of the 2016 AFL Draft, right here on The Roar.
Don Freo
Guest
This from AFL.com... "The Swan Districts product shapes as a ready-to-play defender, who has impressed with his intercept marking ability as well as his remarkable running ability for a 194cm big man." I think the "spoiler" you are thinking of is Josh Rotham that the Eagles took. He is the defensive spoiler.
Arky
Guest
Malcolm Gladwell helped make his name with that bit of statistical analysis in relation to US sports.
Arky
Guest
Not saying he drops them. I'm saying he doesn't go for them.
Don Freo
Guest
Just as well he is a footballer. Injury "management" in cricket would have him out for 2 seasons.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
steve I would prefer to take all midfielder/half forward/ half back running players to compliment the talls we took last year, however if they see Kerr as the best available at whatever pick that's ok.
steve
Guest
I understand that Col, from what I can gather its more a precautionary measure with Cripps. Don't think its even been said that he has a stress fracture. But I agree, we need two quality mids with our first two picks. I think if McGluggage falls to our pick we take him, we have to take him, though Josh doubts he gets past the Lions. If he is gone, then I would prefer Brodie over SPS. For our second round pick, I want us to bid for Kobe Mutch. I don't think GWS will match on him. After already matching on expected bids for Setterfield, Perryman and Macredie and possibly the other fella whose name escapes me atm.
steve
Guest
I'm happy to look at Kerr, third round as I said, Second round is reaching too far. We need two quality mids with our first two picks.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
steve any back injury is a worry and the medical people need to ensure they get the rehab right. This guy is way too important to our rebuild. As you say it shouldn't effect who we draft but re-enforces the fact that we need to increase our midfield stocks to alleviate the load that this guy carries.
steve
Guest
Josh I can see McGluggage slide, just based on the seemingly mutual keenness of the Lions and Ainsworth to align with each other. Though TBF, I have seen it said that if McGrath is unavailable for GWS they would look to Ainsworth, which then leaves McGluggage for the Lions, who they would surely pick in this scenario. Either way, I hope the LIons make a bid on Bowes first though.
Josh
Expert
I'd be gobsmacked if McCluggage makes it past pick 3. The Lions would be mad to pass him up.
Aransan
Guest
Steve, you will be able to get a very good player with your third pick and I wouldn't waste it on Kerr. Be careful about letting sentiment getting ahead of logic.
Josh
Expert
Yeah, I would love to have seen him slide to North in that draft. Ah well.
Josh
Expert
Yeah, fair call. We've all got a little mischievous streak!
steve
Guest
I think Carlton will be choosing between McGluggage and SPS, not Taranto. I see McGluggage falling to us, possibly to the GCS at 4 depending on who GWS take with pick 2 and whether the Lions bid on Bowes. I see it playing out this way. ESS McGrath GWS Taranto GCS Bowes BL Ainsworth GWS Setterfield Carlton McGluggage or SPS If we take McGluggage over SPS then, GCS Brodie FREM SPS If we take SPS then, GCS McGluggage FREM English
Aransan
Guest
It is interesting to work out the average birth months in the different pick ranges: 1 to 5, average 4.2 6 to 10, av 5 11 to 15, av 5.25 (without English) 16 to 20, av 8 For Twomey's draft of the top 30 picks: 1 to 5, av 2.8 6 to 10, 4.8 11 to 15, 5.8 16 to 20, 6.6 21 to 25, 6.4 26 to 30, 9 It is amazing isn't it that the higher draft picks tend to be born earlier in the year?
steve
Guest
Not too worried about that at this point Col. The full 12 weeks brings him back before NAB Cup anyways. Might be a little underdone, but it is what it is. Doesn't change anything for who we draft though. Although if you feel like some amusement, check out a couple of Carlton forums and the way OTT reactions to this. Laughable.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Bad news - Cripps has suffered a stress reaction in the lower back and will be sidelined for up to 12 weeks.
Katfish
Roar Guru
I'm not saying that they would go miles out of their way to hurt another club, but I feel that if it was a tight call (like it is for pick 1) it will be part of the consideration for the Bombers. It's not a crack at the bombers, but I feel as if it makes the first round a lot more interesting
Katfish
Roar Guru
Weller is severely underrated. Can play inside and out, great skills and hits the scoreboard. Will be a star
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Macca - I think the Lions should definitely bid on Bowes at Pick 3 as they know the Suns will match it - there is no doubt of that happening. It means that the Lions will still land their preferred player at Pick 4 (Ainsworth) but it doesn't allow the Suns to grab 1 or potentially 3 other players before drafting Bowes at Pick 10 (or what ever that pick is with matched bids). You are correct that the go-home factor is negated because he is already living in SEQ and moving 86km up the road to Brisbane is no issue considering he already moved from Cairns to the GC as a young teen to play footy.